Last week saw the release of OPEC's November Oil Market Report, which includes the details on OPEC's & global oil data for October, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation as Chinese demand grew faster than expected, after their first half recovery from the country's restrictive Covid policy had stalled over the summer, while oil supplies continued to be impacted by the the most recent unilateral million barrel per day production cut by the Saudis.
The Third Estimate of our 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released last week included an annual revision, which in this year’s case revised GDP data from first quarter of 2019 through the first quarter of 2024, resulting in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, gross domestic income, and related components.
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending December 16th indicated that after a big drop in our oil imports and a big decrease in those mysterious oil supplies that could not be accounted for, we needed to pull oil out of our stored commercial crude supplies for the 5th time in 6 weeks, and for the 16th time in the past 35 weeks, despite another sizable release of oil from the SPR.
With estimates of the relative change in real PCE goods between the months of the 3rd and the months of the 4th quarter, we are also able to estimate the change in real PCE goods between those two quarters.
US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration for the week ending July 22nd indicated that despite another large oil withdrawal from the SPR, increased production from our wells, and a refinery slowdown, we still needed to withdraw oil from our stored commercial crude supplies for the 4th time in 6 weeks, and for the 21st time over the past 35 weeks, mostly because of another big increase in our oil exports.
Tuesday of the past week saw the release of OPEC's July Oil Market Report, which includes details on OPEC & global oil data for June, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation at a time when Chinese demand was curtailed by restrictive Covid lockdowns, while the supply of Russian oil was curtailed by sanctions imposed by the West
US oil supplies are at a 13½ year low, but oil exports are at a 8 month high; SPR is at a 19½ year low after biggest draw since August 2011; gasoline exports are at a 39 month high; distillate supplies are at a 95 month low; total oil + products supplies also at a 95 month low after across the board drawdowns
Now that we have estimates of the percentage change in real PCE goods for all three months of the first quarter, we can also estimate the contribution that real PCE goods will make to 1st quarter GDP
In the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump promised to reform the H-1B work visa program. That should have been the least controversial of his plans, as the visa has long been recognized by both major parties as having major problems. Almost all the major candidates in 2016 — Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Clinton and Sanders — were critical of the program.
In current dollars, our fourth quarter GDP grew at a 6.51% annual rate, increasing from what would work out to a $25,723.9 billion annual rate in the 3rd quarter to a $26,132.5 annual rate in the 4th quarter, with the headline 2.9% annualized rate of increase in real output arrived at after annualized inflation adjustments averaging 3.5%, aka the GDP deflator, were computed from the price changes of the GDP components and applied to their current dollar change.
Wednesday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's June Oil Market Report, which covers OPEC & global oil data for May, and hence it gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation during the first month of the two month agreement between OPEC, the Russians, and other oil producers to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day from an elevated October 2018 baseline.
Our trade deficit fell 21.0% in November, the largest one month drop since the 2009 recession, as both the value of our exports and the value of our imports decreased, but the value of our imports decreased by quite a bit more.
Thursday of this past week saw the release of OPEC's April Oil Market Report, which gives us a picture of the global oil supply & demand situation in March, after the breakdown of OPECs agreement to cut oil production in the first quarter, when Saudi and its allies were engaged in an oil price war against the Russians and US shale, but before last week's agreement to cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day.
The Third Estimate of our 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday included an annual revision, which in this year's case revised GDP data from first quarter of 2017 through the first quarter of 2022, resulting in revisions to GDP, GDP by industry, gross domestic income, and related components.
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