What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.3% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending April 5, 2025

• Active inventory climbed 30.3% from a year ago

The number of homes actively for sale remains significantly higher than last year, continuing a 74-week streak of annual gains. This year-over-year inventory growth gives buyers more choices and encourages more competitive pricing among sellers. Generally, the number of homes up for sale is still below pre-pandemic norms, and the long-standing supply gap will continue to put pressure on prices in under-supplied areas.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 8.6%

New listings were up 8.6% compared with this time last year, marking the 13th straight week of annual growth.

• The median list price increased 0.1% year over year

The national median list price was up 0.1% compared with a year ago, marking the first year-over-year increase after 44 weeks of flat or declining prices. However, more data is needed to determine whether this modest growth signals a true turnaround. In particular, recent economic uncertainty may dampen buyer interest, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 74th consecutive week.  
New listings have increased but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.
Median prices are mostly unchanged year-over-year.

From BofA:

Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking has remained unchanged at 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 11th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on April 9, up from -2.8 percent on April 3. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.3 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth increased from 1.4 percent to 2.0 percent. [Apr 9th estimate]

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.96% and 6.84%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in February. This was before the recent surge in economic uncertainty and stock market volatility that might impact existing home sales.
...
In March, sales in these markets were down 1.3% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 6.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be close to the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for April).

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 April

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 April. ...

30 March through 5 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 63.8% (-0.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.18 (+1.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$102.21 (+0.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We might see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025

A brief excerpt:

Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

These “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!

Note: Yesterday, I expressed concern about policy impacting housing and the economy. Then, at 12:57 PM ET, Goldman Sachs economists put out a note titled: Moving to a Recession Baseline. They argued - based on announced tariffs - that they were forecasting a recession and for the unemployment rate to rise to 5.7% in Q4.

Minutes later, a 90-day pause for most tariffs was announced (reducing tariffs to 10%, except China). An hour later Goldman Sachs put out a second note: Reverting to Our Previous Non-Recession Baseline. However, they still maintained a 45% change of recession in the next 12 months.

Forecasting is especially difficult with rapidly changing policy!
...
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 4.1% year-over-year (YoY) in January and will be about the same YoY - or slightly lower - in the February report (based on other data).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.57% (a 7.0% annual rate), This was the 24th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

There is much more in the article.

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 
On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down slightly unrounded from 3.5% YoY in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (down from 3.1%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.8% (down from 3.1%). 
Core PCE is for February was up 2.8% YoY, up from 2.7% in January.  Based on the CPI report this morning, Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.6% YoY in March.

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.3% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2025.
Services were up 3.7% YoY as of March 2025, down from 4.1% YoY in February.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.3% YoY in March, down from 3.8% YoY in February.
The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.0% YoY as of March 2025, up from -1.2% YoY in February.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.0% YoY in March, unchanged from 0.0% YoY in February.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through March) and housing from the PCE report (through February)

Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March, down from 4.2% in February. Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in February, down from 4.5% in January.
This is still catching up with private new lease data.
Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.8% YoY in March.

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.2 percent in February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy fell 2.4 percent in March, as a 6.3-percent decline in the index for gasoline more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas. The food index, in contrast, rose 0.4 percent in March as the food at home index increased 0.5 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March, following a 0.2-percent increase in February. Indexes that increased over the month include personal care, medical care, education, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among the major indexes that decreased in March.

The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending March, after rising 2.8 percent over the 12 months ending February. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months, the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The energy index decreased 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The food index increased 3.0 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised average of 223,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims was unchanged at 223,000.

The previous week was unchanged.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 219 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.1% increase in CPI (up 2.6% YoY) and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.0% YoY).

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 38 states, decreased in six states, and remained stable in six, for a one-month diffusion index of 64. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.8 percent over the past three months and 0.1 percent in February.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 
This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In February, 41 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 18–19, 2025. Excerpt:

With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants judged that inflation was likely to be boosted this year by the effects of higher tariffs, although significant uncertainty surrounded the magnitude and persistence of such effects. Several participants noted that the announced or planned tariff increases were larger and broader than many of their business contacts had expected. Several participants also noted that their contacts were already reporting increases in costs, possibly in anticipation of rising tariffs, or that their contacts had indicated willingness to pass on to consumers higher input costs that would arise from potential tariff increases. A couple of participants highlighted factors that might limit the inflationary effects of tariffs, noting that many households had depleted the excess savings they had accumulated during the pandemic and were less likely to accept additional price increases, or that stricter immigration policies might reduce demand for rental and affordable housing and alleviate upward pressures on housing inflation. A couple of participants noted that the continued balance in the labor market suggested that labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure. A couple of participants noted that, in the period ahead, it could be especially difficult to distinguish between relatively persistent changes in inflation and more temporary changes that might be associated with the introduction of tariffs. Participants commented on a range of factors that could influence the persistence of tariff effects, including the extent to which tariffs are imposed on intermediate goods and thus affect input costs at various stages of production, the extent to which complex supply chains need to be restructured, the actions of trading partners in responding with retaliatory increases in tariffs, and the stability of longer-term inflation expectations.
emphasis added

Just minutes after Goldman Sachs put out a note forecasting a recession, Mr. Trump lowered all tariffs to 10% (except China).

First, from Goldman Sachs economists:

Moving to a Recession Baseline We now expect the US’s effective tariff rate to rise by at least 20pp and are forecasting a recession with a 12-month probability of 65%. We think the White House is unlikely to quickly reverse most of the new tariffs, but our probability of recession would decline if it does.

We now forecast GDP growth of -1% this year on a Q4/Q4 basis (or +0.7% on an annual average basis) and a 1.5pp increase in the unemployment rate to 5.7%. This would be less severe than most past US recessions, in part because we do not see major financial imbalances that need to unwind, private sector balance sheets remain strong, and we see some room for trade deals to eventually lower tariff rates somewhat.
emphasis added

And just minutes later from CNBC: Trump temporarily drops tariffs to 10% for most countries, hits China harder with 125%

President Donald Trump on Wednesday dropped tariffs under his new trade plan to 10% on imports from most countries, as he announced a 90-day pause for stiffer, so-called reciprocal tariffs that took effect this week.

Trump also said in a social media post that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125% “effective immediately” due to the “lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.”

It is impossible to forecast with rapidly changing policy.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

At this moment, we can’t talk housing without mentioning the overall economy.

Just over two weeks ago, I revised down my outlook for housing this year, see Policy and 2025 Housing Outlook. Since then, policy and the outlook have taken a turn for the worse. One point I made in March was:

And another factor is the recent stock market volatility. Ten percent corrections are common, a further sell-off will have a negative wealth effect for potential home buyers.

Stock markets are now down around 20% (with crazy volatility). And it is likely this will negatively impact home sales.

On my blog, I went on Recession Watch over the weekend (not predicting a recession yet because the U.S. economy is very resilient, was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and the tariffs might be lowered or reversed). And I discussed some of the data I’ll be watching in Recession Watch Metrics.

And on housing: Inventory, inventory, inventory! Inventory is increasing sharply, and inventory usually tells the tale.
...
Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. Note that months-of-supply is higher than 6 of the last 8 years, and at the same level as in 2017.

Months-of-supply was at 3.5 months in February compared to 3.6 months in February 2019. It appears national months-of-supply will be above pre-pandemic levels this summer, and likely above 5.0 months (putting some pressure on prices).

Inventory would probably have to increase to 5 1/2 to 6 months of supply to see national price declines again.

There is much more in the article.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 20.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 4, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 20.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 35 percent from the previous week and was 93 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week and was 24 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications increased by 20 percent to its highest level since September 2024, driven by purchase and refinance applications picking up in a volatile week where economic uncertainty caused rates to drop across the board. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.61 percent, the lowest rate since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Both homebuyers and refinance borrowers were quick to take advantage of this dip in rates, driving the purchase index 24 percent higher than a year ago to the strongest pace since January 2024. Refinance applications rose by 35 percent to the highest level in six months, as borrowers with larger loan sizes tend to be more sensitive to rate changes. The average refinance loan size jumped to its second highest in the survey at $399,600.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.61 percent from 6.70 percent, with points increasing to 0.63 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 24% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 38% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 14% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased but remained very low.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 18-19

Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again after the start of President Trump's 2nd term.  So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms.  We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.

Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now.  But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.

The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Biden only served one term.

Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.

There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession.   There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.

First, here is a table for private sector jobs for each term. (Blue for Democrats, Red for Republicans)

TermPrivate Sector
Jobs Added (000s) Biden14,327 Clinton 110,875 Clinton 210,104 Obama 29,924 Reagan 29,351 Carter9,039 Reagan 15,363 Obama 11,889 GHW Bush1,507 GW Bush 2453 Trump 23251 GW Bush 1-822 Trump 1-2,178 1Through 2 months
Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph is for private employment only.

Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 369,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,813,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue).  During President Trump's terms (Orange), the economy has lost 1,853,000 private sector jobs.
 A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment.  Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. 

The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).  However, the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs).  During Mr. Trump's terms, the economy lost 517,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).
And a table for public sector jobs. Public sector jobs increased have increased the most during Biden's term (mostly state and local employment), ahead of the number during Reagan's 2nd term.  Public sector jobs declined the most during Obama's first term.
TermPublic Sector
Jobs Added (000s) Biden1,813 Reagan 21,438 Carter1,304 Clinton 21,242 GHW Bush1,127 GW Bush 1900 GW Bush 2844 Clinton 1692 Obama 2447 Trump 2201 Reagan 1-24 Trump-537 Obama 1-710 1Through 2 months

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.96% and 6.84%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). This was an increase from the average rate for homes that closed in February. This was before the recent surge in economic uncertainty and stock market volatility that might impact existing home sales.
...
In March, sales in these markets were down 0.7% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 4.2% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that most of these early reporting markets have shown stronger year-over-year sales than most other markets for the last several months.

Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be close to the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines 7% in March

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, receded 6.9% in March to 205.6 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 220.9. Over the month, commercial planning declined 7.8% while institutional planning fell 5.0%.

“Increased uncertainty around material prices and fiscal policies may have begun to factor into planning decisions throughout March,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “While planning data has weakened across most nonresidential sectors this month, activity remains considerably higher than year-ago levels and still suggests steady construction activity in mid-2026.”

On the commercial side, weaker planning activity for warehouses, data centers and retail stores drove this month’s decline. Meanwhile, hotel and office planning continued to accelerate. On the institutional side, planning activity slowed for education, healthcare and government buildings. In March, the DMI was up 30% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 32% from March 2024. The institutional segment was up 27% over the same period, following a very weak March last year. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year remains substantial. If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 12%. While momentum decelerated for data centers this month, levels of activity remain very high.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 205.6 in March, down from 220.9 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a pickup in mid-2025, however, uncertainty might impact these projects.  
Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.