Robert Oak's blog

Greece Defaulted After All

greece parthenonMoody's has proclaimed Greece defaulted.

Moody's Investors Service says that it considers Greece (C/no outlook) to have defaulted per Moody's default definitions further to the conclusion of an exchange of EUR177 billion of Greece's debt that is governed by Greek law for bonds issued by the Greek government, GDP-linked securities, European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) notes. Foreign-law bonds are eligible for the same offer, and Moody's expects a similar debt exchange to proceed with these bondholders, as well as the holders of state-owned enterprise debt that has been guaranteed by the state, in the coming weeks. The respective securities will enter our default statistics at the tender expiration date, which is was Thursday 8 March for the Greek law bonds and is currently expected to be 23 March for foreign law bonds. Greece's government bond rating remains unchanged at C, the lowest rating on Moody's rating scale.

Moody's understands that 85.8% of debtholders holding Greek-law bonds issued by the sovereign have agreed to the exchange, with the vast majority of remaining bondholders likely to be drawn in following the exercise of Collective Action Clauses that will be inserted pursuant to a recent Act by the Greek parliament. The terms of the exchange entail a discount -- a loss to creditors -- of at least 70% on the net present value of existing debt.

Greece on the Edge

greece ruinsGreece is on the edge. Part of their bail out, the voluntary losses Greek bond holders were supposed to accept, is falling short.

Private holders of €206bn in Greek bonds have until Thursday evening to decide whether to take part in a swap where they would trade bonds for a package of bonds and cash that would knock about €100bn off Athens’ debts.

Greece must get 75 per cent of holders to participate to avoid forcing the deal on holdouts through so-called “collective action clauses” which were inserted retroactively into Greek bonds by the government last week. If less than 66 per cent participate, even the CACs would become invalid, scuppering the entire deal.

The ECB is already saying voluntary participation will be too low and now there is talk of forcing the holders of Greek debt to take their haircut:

Greece expects bondholders to accept a one-time offer to write off about 100 billion euros ($140 billion) of Greek debt and is ready to force them to participate if necessary, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said.

Mortgage Settlement Is Corruption Poster Child

housemazeIt's simply a failure of law. Barry Ritholtz wrote a admonishment of the Obama administration and state attorney generals for buying into the 50 state mortgage settlement pig in a poke:

We never want to see an innocent party “accidentally” evicted from a home. The legal system has evolved so this has become a “legal impossibility.” Imagine returning home from work or vacation to find the front door padlocked, the belongings strewn all over the block, a big orange sticker screaming “FORECLOSED” on the garage door, with an auction sign in the front lawn. Now imagine that this occurred even though you are not in default or even delinquent on payments. Thanks to the robosigning banks, this legal impossibility has happened repeatedly, even to homeowners who paid cash for their houses and had no mortgages. Imagine that — foreclosed with no mortgage.

Pretty incredible huh? It used to be no one could simply just take your home. Such a violation of personal and property rights was unheard of. Now the stories are so routine, the press barely covers them.

Bloomberg Law interviewed an on fire Ritholtz, who explains, in simple English, why this settlement is such a big deal. Literally the settlement throws out 1000 years of individual property rights, law and is a loss of personal freedom you really need to pay attention to.

Why are Gas Prices Skyrocketing?

Déjà vu, it's 2008 all over again. Why are gas prices soaring through the roof?

 

gas reg gal 02-2012

 

Some are revisiting oil speculation as the culprit. Commodity futures speculation always pops up in the public discourse the minute gas prices go above $3.65, yet nothing ever seems to come of it.

Our usual stupid political tricks, from tapping the strategic oil reserve to the GOP blaming Obama for gas prices, are in full swing. Isn't this all getting rather old? Wouldn't we all just like a stable price fluctuation in a key critical commodity upon which our economy and our empty pockets depend?

 

 

We know one thing, $5 gas can literally kill economic recovery. Oil shocks are correlated to recessions, as James Hamilton points out as do others. Below is a quarterly historical graph of real GDP percent change vs. the West Texas Intermediate average Oil Price. Notice the spikes in oil price and the grey recession bars.

 

How to Fix Too Big Too Fail

tbtfminnfedlogo Meet Roberta Karmel, an unassuming law professor. Meet Professor Karmel's answer to finally break up the big banks.

Another financial crisis, a prolonged recession, or changing political ideologies could cause a re-examination of the status quo and lead to a decision to break up the big banks. If that should happen, policy makers could well take another look at the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 as a model for accomplishing such a breakup over a limited time span of, say, seven years. The political mood is already shifting. The 1980s mantras -- government regulation as problematic, free-market competition as an unquestioned good, financial engineering as worthwhile innovation and finance as more important than commercial and industrial enterprise -- are now being reconsidered. This could lead to a more responsible balance between government, finance and industry. Dodd-Frank, despite its length and complexity, is only the beginning of real regulatory reform. It's a continuation of the complexity of already overly complex financial and regulatory systems. What we need is a simple regulatory scheme to create a simpler banking system.

Greece Pushed Further into Economic Contraction by New Bail Out

greekdominoesYet another deal, yet more austerity. The Financial Times has the most detailed terms of the latest Greek bail out. We've dug out some details as well.

  • Bail out is €130 billion
  • Greek bondholders hair cut is now voluntary
  • If Greece sovereign debt holders volunteer to take a hair cut, it's up from 50% to 53.5%
  • Greece gets to go into more debt with lowered interest rates
  • Greek is supposed to get their debt to GDP ratio to 120.5% by 2020
  • The ECB is going to distribute profits on €40 billion of Greek bond holdings
  • More austerity cuts of 5% GDP by 2014
  • More privatization of €19 billion by 2015

Here's the money shot. Greece's GDP is expected to shrink by 17% when comparing economic output from 2009 to 2013. That is not a recession. Greece is in a depression.

Gez, why not just invade, rampage and pillage the nation? Must all war be economic these days?

There was a leaked internal document which says Greece will never get out of this debt and shrinking GDP means....more bail outs.

National Mortgage Settlement is a Big Fat Pig in a Poke

pigpokeThere are new revelations on the 50 state mortgage fraud settlement. From The Financial Times:

A clause in the provisional agreement – which has not been made public – allows the banks to count future loan modifications made under a 2009 foreclosure-prevention initiative towards their restructuring obligations for the new settlement, according to people familiar with the matter.

The existing $30bn initiative, the Home Affordable Modification Programme (Hamp), provides taxpayer funds as an incentive to banks, third party investors and troubled borrowers to arrange loan modifications.

The settlement is estimated to be $40 billion. The fines are only $5 billion of this, which implies U.S. taxpayers are on the hook, not the banks, for $30 billion. So instead of getting any justice that using people's homes, their shelter and main life investment as a gambling chip and paper chase game is wrong, once again we get to pay for financial folly while banks pocket the cash.

Naked Capitalism has put up a top 12 list of things wrong with the foreclosure fraud settlement. Here's reason #1:

No Quantitative Easing For You

money gamblingSorry speculative traders in commodities, the Fed actually did a just say no on more quantitative easing. The FOMC meeting minutes for January 24-25th were released last week and some speculative commodities traders still seem to be in denial land.

The FOMC money quote:

The Committee also stated that it is prepared to adjust the size and composition of its securities holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation beyond the near term would likely be inappropriate; that member anticipated that a preemptive tightening of monetary policy would be necessary before the end of 2014 to keep inflation close to 2 percent.

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