To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter.
The May report Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
Other than the employment report and the GDP report itself, the monthly report on Personal Income and Outlays from theBureau of Economic Analysis is the most important economic release we see monthly, as it gives us the monthly data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 2/3rds of GDP, our personal income and disposable personal income data, our savings and savings rate,
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has revised the National Income and Product Accounts all the way back to 1928. With the release of Q2 GDP, Gross Domestic Product magically added $559.8 billion to 2012 GDP in current dollars. Additionally the chained dollar base year was changed from 2005 to 2009, a very funky year where some deflation from 2008 was still present.
Americans spent more than they earned. That's what's implied in the BEA's September personal income and outlay's report. Consumer spending increased 0.8% from last month, and when adjusted for inflation was a 0.4% increase for September. Consumer spending is another term for personal consumption expenditures or PCE.
Consumer spending was unchanged from last month, but after taking price increases into account, decreased by -0.1%. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending by the press. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE.
Consumer spending was unchanged from last month, but after taking price increases into account, shows a 0.1% increase. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending by the press. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE. This is not good news for Q2 GDP.
Consumer spending increased 0.3% from last month, but after taking price increases into account, showed only a 0.1% increase. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE.
The Personal Income and Outlays report shows people spent more than they earned in February. Consumer spending increased 0.8% from last month, but after taking price increases into account, increased by 0.5%. While disposable income increased by 0.2%, when adjusted for inflation, disposable income actually dropped, -0.1%. Personal income increased 0.2% in February.
There is spending and income and then there is spending an income adjusted for price increases. The Personal Income and Outlays report covers individual income, consumption and savings. Consumer spending increased 0.2% from last month, but after taking price increases into account, there was actually no monthly change.
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