trade

Over Half a Trillion 2016 Trade Deficit

The U.S. December 2016 monthly trade deficit decreased 3.2% from last month and now stands at $44.3 billion.  For all of 2016, the trade deficit increased 0.4% from the year previous.  While that doesn't sound like much, the total amount is -$502.3 billion.  This is in spite of petroleum imports being much less of a trade deficit factor.

February Trade Data Points to Some Bad Signs

The U.S. February 2016 monthly trade deficit increased 2.6% from last month and now stands at -$47.1 billion.  America still runs a surplus in services, now at $17.7 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$64.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit hasn't been this high since August 2015.

Trade Deficit Declines 7.7% on Crude Oil Imports

The U.S. November 2014 monthly trade deficit declined -7.7% from last month and now stands at -$39 billion.  America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.3 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.3 billion.  This month's trade deficit reduction is due to less crude oil imports and lower oil prices.

September's 8.0% Trade Deficit Increase Should Lower Q3 GDP

The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion.  The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision.  We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.

Trade Deficit Dramatic Shrink Will Boost Q2 GDP

The U.S. June 2013 monthly trade deficit cliff dove -22.4% from last month to $34.2 billion.  This is the smallest trade deficit since October 2009 when the world was plunged into a global recession.  A combination of a dramatic drop in oil imports along with solid U.S. exports in fuel oil, capital goods and jewelry was the reason for the deficit decline.  Q2 GDP should be revised upward past 2.0% as shown below.

Trade Deficit Pops Back Up, Increases 16.2% for January 2013

The U.S. January 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 16.2% to $44.45 billion after December's -20.9% trade deficit implosion.  This month is all about oil imports and we suspect Hurricane Sandy potentially affected imports in December and why the wild swings.  December had the lowest petroleum related imports since August 2009.

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