Paul Farrell - We'll be in Depression 2 in 2011

On CBS Market Watch, Paul Farrell writes a pretty frightening article, 30 reasons for Great Depression 2 by 2011. Contained within is how now Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson knew years ago that the deriviatives market could cause an economic collapse.

But the big shocker came from the new Treasury secretary two years before the meltdown: Bloomberg News reports that shortly after leaving Wall Street as Goldman Sachs' CEO, Henry Paulson was at Camp David warning the president and his staff of "over-the-counter derivatives as an example of financial innovation that could, under certain circumstances, blow up in Wall Street's face and affect the whole economy."

Farrell then gives a list of his 30 reasons:

 

  1. America's credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
  2. Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new "shadow banking system"
  3. Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson's Wall Street Trojan Horse
  4. King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
  5. Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
  6. AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
  7. American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
  8. Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
  9. State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
  10. State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
  11. Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
  12. Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
  13. Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
  14. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
  15. Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
  16. Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
  17. Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
  18. Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
  19. Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
  20. Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
  21. Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930's photos of soup lines
  22. Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
  23. China's sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
  24. Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
  25. The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
  26. Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
  27. New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
  28. Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
  29. The "antitaxes" message is a new bubble, a new version of the American.  dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises.

And what is #30?  The deficit.   I agree.  We get hearings and even a hell of a lot of awareness but in terms of real policy to tackle any of these problems, nothing happens.  One of my favorite examples are the ballooning Medicare and Medicaid costs. Yet one almost never hears reigning in administrative and medical costs. The United States has more expensive medical costs than any other nation on Earth, yet reigning in those costs and the profiteers who make them, never happens.

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