Calculated Risk

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

A brief excerpt:
Although total housing starts decreased 3.9% in 2024 compared to 2023, completions increased sharply year-over-year. There were 1.731 million total completions and placements in 2024, up 12.5% compared to 2023, and the most since 2006.

Not counting Manufactured homes, there are 1.628 million completions in 2024, up 12.4% from 1.449 million in 2023, and also the most since 2006.
...
Total CompletionsThe housing start report last week indicated 1,020.4 thousand single family completions in 2024 (red), up 2.2% from 998.8 thousand in 2023. There were 16.8 thousand completions of 2-to-4 units, and 590.6 thousand completions of 5+ units (blue), up 35% from 2023, and the most since 1974!
There is much more in the article.

AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in 2024, Intermodal Up

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.
For the full year 2024, total U.S. carloads were 11.34 million, down 2.9% (343,156 carloads) from 2023 and down 2.3% (265,491 carloads) from 2022. ... Carloads excluding coal, on the other hand, rose in 2024 — up 1.4%, or 117,264 carloads, over 2023 and their third year-over-year gain in the past four years.

U.S. railroads originated 13.84 million containers and trailers in 2024, the most since 2021; the third most ever (behind 2018 and 2021); and up 9.3% (1.17 million units) over 2023.
emphasis added
Rail Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average for carloads for the last 3 years.  Total carloads were down 2.0% in Q4 YoY.
Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell 2.0%, or 57,285 carloads, from the fourth quarter of 2023. Total carloads fell year-over-year each quarter in 2024 after rising (albeit modestly) in three of the four quarters of 2023. Total carloads averaged 220,336 per week in Q4 2024. In our records that begin in 1988, only 2020 had a lower fourth-quarter weekly average.
Rail TrafficAnd on Intermodal:
In Q4 2024, intermodal averaged 279,275 units per week, up 8.8% over Q4 2023 and the most ever for a fourth quarter in our records. (Q3 2018 and Q2 2021 were higher among all quarters.) Container volume averaged 269,460 per week in Q4 2024, up 10.0% over Q4 2023 and the most ever for any quarter.
Note: rail traffic was weak even before the pandemic. As AAR noted: "Trade tensions and declining mfrg. output lead to lower rail volumes" in 2019.  These factors might impact rail traffic again in 2025.

Housing Jan 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 24.8% Year-over-year

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.2% week-over-week.
Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. If the previous week was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has happened before.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 24.8% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 23.6%), and down 23.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.3%). 
Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!
Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of Jan 17th, inventory was at 632 thousand (7-day average), compared to 624 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

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