Futures Flat As Tesla Lifts Tech; Yields, Dollar Resume Push Higher

US futures are higher even as European and Asian markets fail to stay positive, as traders waited for fresh pointers on growth and the future of interest rates. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3% as Tesla shares surged 8% in premarket trading on speculation Trump’s team will ease self-driving car rules; the boost was enough to offset the 2% drop in NVDA ahead of its earnings Wednesday. Bond yields resume their trek higher (10y 4.47%, +3bp this morning) after sliding on Friday, while the USD is trading near session highs erasing an earlier drop. Commodities are mostly higher led by oil (+0.9%), aluminum (+5.3%) and precious metals (gold +1.1%, silver +1.5%). Gold rose more than 1% after Goldman analysts predicted the precious metal would hit a record by the end of next year. Bitcoin recovered from its biggest two-day retreat since the US vote to trade past the $90,000 mark.  This week, the key focus will be earnings (NVDA, WMT, TGT) and global PMIs.

In premarket trading, Tesla gained 7% after Bloomberg reported that members of President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team have told advisers they plan to make a federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles one of the Transportation Department’s priorities. Nvidia falls 2% after the Information reported that the chip giant has asked its suppliers to change the design of the server racks for its new Blackwell graphics processing unit due to an overheating problem. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Astera Labs (ALAB) gains 3% as Citi initiates coverage of the semiconductor stock with a buy rating, saying the shares provide artificial intelligence investors with a unique opportunity.
• CVS Health (CVS) gains 1.5% after naming Glenview Capital Management founder Larry Robbins to its board as part of an agreement with the activist firm that’s been pressuring the company for change.
• Liberty Energy (LBRT) climbs 5% after President-elect Donald Trump nominated Chris Wright, who runs the Colorado-based oil and natural gas fracking services company, to lead the Energy Department.
• Newmont (NEM) rises 2% after agreeing to sell Musselwhite for up to $850 million.
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) rises 5% after S&P Dow Jones Indices said the company will replace R1 RCM in the S&P MidCap 400 prior to the opening on Nov. 20.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbs 12% as the server maker approaches a deadline to either file a delayed 10-K annual report or submit a plan to file the form to Nasdaq in order to remain listed on the exchange.
• Syndax Pharmaceuticals (SNDX) rises 7% after the FDA approved its drug Revuforj (revumenib) for the treatment of certain leukemia patients.

While the S&P 500 has given up more than half its rally since Trump’s election win, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson - best known for being bearish and wrong for much of 2023 and 2024 - is now predicting gains will resume over the longer term.  Wilson, once considered a prominent bear on Wall Street, sees the S&P 500 ending next year up around 11% from Friday’s close amid improving economic growth and further Fed interest-rate cuts. Goldman Sachs analysts, meanwhile, said gold will reach a record $3,000 an ounce by December 2025 due to central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts.

“It should be a quieter week as the recent relentless wave of US macro and political news flow in theory slows down,” said Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of macro and thematic research. “The main story on this front being on potential political appointments for the new Trump administration with Treasury secretary the one creating most interest.”

Indeed, Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary is in focus this week along with Nvidia earnings on Wednesday that are set to test the sustainability of AI-led stock gains. US financial leadership under incoming Trump administration remains unclear, with Robert Lighthizer, Senator William Hagerty, Apollo Global Chief Executive Officer Marc Rowan and Kevin Warsh now among the candidates for Treasury secretary.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.3% amid continued worries about potential US tariffs under the new administration and weakness in China. Real estate and technology stocks declined the most, while miners outperformed after iron ore rebounded on signs of robust Chinese steel output in the short term. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• Melrose Industries shares rise as much as 9.3% after the aerospace technology provider reiterated its profit guidance for this year and next.
• Bavarian Nordic gains as much as 11%, the most since August, after the Danish vaccines maker was upgraded to buy from hold at Carnegie.
• Ence Energia y Celulosa gains as much as 5.1% following an upgrade to buy at Jefferies, which sees pulp prices reaching a bottom in 1Q next year and scope for strong Ebitda growth in renewable biomass energy.
• ASR Nederland rises as much as 3.2% after UBS upgrades the stock to buy from neutral, preferring the Dutch insurer to peer NN Group due to the likelihood of more share buybacks ahead.
• Judges Scientific plummets as much as 19% after the scientific instrument developer says not all the orders it expected to be crystallized and delivered in the second half of the year will be achieved in time.
• UK homebuilders are underperforming on Monday after asking prices for residential properties fell more than usual in November as the budget disappointed prospective buyers and affordability remained stretched, according to Rightmove.

Earlier, Asian equities gave up gains, as initial advances in China disappeared as traders weigh the outlook for more stimulus measures. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1%, with TSMC and SK Hynix among key losers. China’s CSI 300 Index fell 0.5%, while the Japanese benchmark slipped to a near two-week low. Stocks in Taiwan also declined, while Korean equities rose the most in about two months as Samsung shares rose more than 5% on Monday in response to a $7.2bn share buyback plan - the first since 2017 - aimed at boosting its stock, which had fallen to four-year lows last week. Investors are waiting to see if Chinese authorities are inclined to issue more stimulus measures while President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs looms over the region’s sentiment. Chinese state-owned companies’ stocks received a boost Monday after the country’s securities regulator issued a supportive guideline, urging them to come up with clear and executable plans to boost their valuation.  

In FX, the Dollar Spot Index erases a 0.2% drop and traded near session highs while 10-year US Treasury yields edge two basis points higher to 4.46%. The Japanese yen weakened as much as 0.5% to 155.14 against the greenback after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda avoided giving a clear hint that he will raise interest rates at a December meeting. EUR/USD +0.1% at 1.0548.

In rates, Treasury futures were near lows of the day in early US trading following similar losses in bunds ahead of several speeches by ECB policymakers this week. US curve steepens as long-end leads losses, pushing 2s10s and 5s30s spreads beyond Friday’s highs. US session has little economic data and no scripted Fed speeches slated. Yields were cheaper by 1bp-4bp across the steeper curve, with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads both ~2.5bp wider on the day; 10-year around 4.465% is ~3bp higher with bunds underperforming by around 0.5bp in the sector.  German bonds fall, led by the short-end, as traders remove some ECB interest-rate cut premium ahead of a number of speeches from policymakers this week. German two-year yield climbs 6bps to 2.18%, sector underperforms Treasuries and gilts

In commodities, oil rebounded, with Brent crude trading near $72 per barrel. Bitcoin fell almost 3% over Saturday and Sunday before rising back to $92,000 on Monday morning. Trump has made various pro-crypto pledges, but there are open questions about the timetable for implementation and whether all are feasible — such as setting up a US Bitcoin stockpile.

Today's US economic data calendar includes November New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), NAHB housing market index (10am) and September TIC flows (4pm). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee at 10am. Schmid, Cook, Bowman, Hammack and Barr are scheduled to appear later this week. Eurozone and UK inflation readings due on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, will help investors gauge the outlook for Bank of England and European Central Bank policy. A swathe of officials from the respective institutions are also due to speak.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,897.50
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 501.48
• MXAP little changed at 182.06
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 576.58
• Nikkei down 1.1% to 38,220.85
• Topix down 0.7% to 2,691.76
• Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 19,576.61
• Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,323.85
• Sensex down 0.3% to 77,322.56
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 8,300.17
• Kospi up 2.2% to 2,469.07
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.39%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.0566
• Brent Futures up 0.5% to $71.39/bbl
• Gold spot up 1.1% to $2,591.11
• US Dollar Index down 0.13% to 106.55

Top Overnight news

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping told President Biden that Beijing remains committed to stable relations with the U.S., an expression of hope for continuity in ties before Donald Trump returns to the Oval Office in the midst of promises to squeeze Beijing over trade. WSJ
• China’s population is expected to shrink by ~51M over the next 10 years as the country continues to grapple within enormous demographic headwinds. BBG
• BOJ’s Kazuo Ueda avoided giving a clear hint that the BOJ will raise rates at its December meeting, saying the timing of its next adjustment will depend on the economy and prices. The yen weakened. BBG
• US pump prices are set to dip below $3 a gallon, a three-year low, just in time for Thanksgiving travel, which is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels. BBG
• As western leaders look to talks with Putin, Russia hit Ukraine over the weekend with one of the largest missile and drone barrages of the entire war. WSJ
• Nvidia asked suppliers to redesign server racks for its new Blackwell GPU, leading to worries about delays, the Information reported. BBG
• Trump is broadening his search for a Treasury Sec and rather than Bessent or Lutnick, could decide to select Kevin Warsh, Sen. Bill Hagerty, or Apollo’s Marc Rowan. WSJ
• Trump seeks assurances from Treasury Sec candidates that they will execute a plan to implement sweeping tariffs. FT
• US President-elect Trump picked Chris Wright to be Energy Secretary and named Commissioner Brendan Carr as the Chairman of the FCC. It was also reported that Trump is considering Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan for US Treasury Secretary, according to NYT, while Trump was reportedly seeking a pledge that his Treasury Secretary will enact tough tariffs, according to FT.
• Tesla +7.7% in the premarket after people familiar said Trump’s team is seeking to encourage the development of fully self-driving vehicles. BBG
• Fed's Barkin (2024 voter) said on Friday that he always expected core PCE would stay in the ‘high twos’ in H2 and is still seeing progress on inflation, while he added that pricing power is getting more limited, according to a Yahoo Finance interview. Furthermore, Barkin said he hopes and expects that inflation numbers will come down in Q1, as well as noted that they are a long way from knowing what will happen with tariffs and it is hard to know the impact.
• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said on Friday that there is not a moment where policy forward guidance is a good idea and Fed policy is well positioned for what lies ahead in the economy, while she added it is too soon to say the impact of the election on the economic policy and the Fed needs to see data before deciding on the December FOMC. Furthermore, Collins said they do not need the labour market to soften further and they are not seeing signs of fresh inflation pressures, while she added the data suggests more room to run on the balance sheet rundown, as well as noted that monetary policy is restrictive and will need to ease over time.
• Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said on Friday that he does not like tying the Fed's hands and there is still more data to come when asked about a December rate cut or pause, while he added that markets react immediately and in most extreme terms. Goolsbee also said the Fed needs to focus on longer trends and he will be looking at rate cuts along the lines of the September Fed policymaker projections.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week with a mildly positive following last Friday's tech-led declines on Wall St which were triggered by hot US data and with quiet newsflow from over the weekend aside from Russian geopolitical-related headlines. ASX 200 was contained as losses in tech, healthcare and financials offset gains in utilities, commodities and consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 declined at the open after last Friday's currency strength and with a surprise contraction in Machinery Orders, although was off today's worst level with some mild support seen as the yen weakened following BoJ Governor Ueda's comments. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp traded higher amid a focus on recent earnings releases and after the PBoC continued its liquidity efforts, while Chinese President Xi said that China is 'ready to work' with Trump during a meeting with US President Biden.

Top Asian News

• RBA's Kent says most borrowers have buffers to help manage higher interest rates; Worth reviewing the RBA's approach to forward guidance from time to time; forward guidance in Australia might be less useful than in the US
• US President Biden told Chinese President Xi that keeping open lines of leader-to-leader communication is vital through transition and beyond, while they agreed that AI will not ever take control of nuclear weapons and Biden raised concerns about unfair, non-market economic practices by China and issues in the South China Sea.
• Chinese President Xi told US President Biden that China’s commitment to a stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations remains unchanged and China is willing to maintain dialogue, expand cooperation and manage differences with the US government in an effort to realise a smooth transition period in China-US relations. Xi also told Biden that common interests between their countries are expanding rather than shrinking and that containing China is unwise, unacceptable and bound to fail. Furthermore, Xi said the China-US relationship would make considerable progress when the two countries treat each other as a partner and a friend and that he is ready to work with Donald Trump to manage ties.
• Chinese President Xi told US President Biden the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, the system, and rights to development are China’s four red lines which allow no challenge, while Xi said the US should refrain from making any moves that have a chilling effect and told Biden to deal with the Taiwan issue with “extreme caution”, according to state media.
• China’s Commerce Minister met with the Canadian Minister for International Trade in Peru and discussed the tariff situation.
• China's securities regulator said it is to improve the coordination mechanism for overseas listing supervision and regulation, while it will expand the scope of eligible stocks under the stock connect.
• China and the EU are said to have reached a “technical consensus” in talks regarding tariffs the bloc applied to Chinese electrical vehicles, according to a Weibo account affiliated with the state-run China Central Television cited by Automotive News.
• BoJ Governor Ueda said they will continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary support if the economy and prices move in line with their forecasts, while he also stated there is no change to BoJ's stance to underpin economic activity and the timing of rate hike will depend on economic, price, and financial outlook. Ueda said they will make a policy decision by updating the economic and price outlook with data and information available at the time, while he noted that gradually adjusting the degree of monetary support will contribute to durably achieving the price target through sustained economic growth and they must be vigilant to various risks including overseas and market developments. Furthermore, Ueda said there are numerous factors they want to check including on US economy but won't necessarily wait until there is clarity for all of them and if they don't adjust the degree of monetary support appropriately, they could be forced to hike rates rapidly.

European bourses began the session on a mixed/flat footing, and initially lacked any firm direction. Soon after the cash open, sentiment improved, however, this upside quickly dissipated to show a mostly negative picture across Europe. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with only a couple of sectors in positive territory. Basic Resources tops the pile, benefiting from strength in underlying metals prices. Real Estate & Tech are found at the foot of the pile, hampered by the relatively high yield environment. US Equity Futures are mixed, with slight outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, attempting to pare back some of the hefty losses in the prior session. Barclays cuts Europoean Healthcare to underweight, Utilities to Market weight, Luxury, Insurance to Overweight

Top European News

• ECB's Nagel says global integration would have to decline substantially to prompt a notable increase in inflationary pressures. Proposed tariffs by US President-elect Trump would upend international trade but only have a "minor impact" on inflation.
• ECB's de Guindos says balance of risks have shifted to growth from inflation.
• ECB's Makhlouf does not think the job is done on taming inflation; services inflation is higher than he wants. Adds that he does not feel the need to rush, at the moment. Says ECB must think like a long-distance runner. Says prudence and caution have a premium to them, ECB should continue in that manner
• UK government confirmed the spread of bird flu in commercial poultry at premises near Rosudgeon, St. Ives, Cornwall, according to Reuters.

FX

• DXY has kicked the week off on a contained footing with not much to shift the macro dial over the weekend. DXY is currently caged within Friday's 106.33-96 range. If upside resumes, last week's YTD peak sits at 107.06.
• EUR/USD currently sits towards the upper end of Friday's 1.0516-93 range as the USD gives back some of its recent gains. EZ-specific newsflow has been light, but ECB's Lagarde and Lane are due later.
• JPY is the marginal laggard vs. the USD across the majors after BoJ Governor Ueda continued to signal a lack of urgency to hike rates but reiterated the BoJ will continue to adjust monetary support if the economy and prices move in line with their forecasts. He later warned they could be forced to hike rapidly if they don't adjust the degree of monetary support appropriately. USD/JPY currently sits towards the bottom end of Friday's 153.85-156.74 range.
• GBP is steady vs. the USD but in close proximity to Friday's multi-month low at 1.2597 that was triggered by a soft outturn for Q3 UK GDP. Docket for today is light, but inflation/PMI data is due later in the week.
• Antipodeans are both marginally softer vs. the USD with not much in the way of fresh drivers to instigate price action. Both currencies remain sensitive to the fallout from the US election and the tone that Trump will strike towards China.

Fixed Income

• Minor losses for the Dec'24 UST with prices currently in consolidation mode after the election. The Dec'24 UST contract is currently within Friday's 108.30-109.23+ range; the lower bound of which was a contract low. The US yield curve is marginally bull-steepening with the 2s10s wider by around 14bps.
• Bunds are lower in a slight unwind of some of last week's upside. Macro focus around the Eurozone remains on the growth outlook with ECB's de Guindos this morning remarking that this is where the Bank is currently focusing. The Dec'24 Bund contract is currently lingering below the 132 mark, having breached the low on Friday to a current trough of 131.62. ECB President Lagarde & Lane are due to speak later.
• Gilts are marginally softer, in-fitting with price action in global peers. The macro narrative towards the back-end of last week was characterised by the soft outturn for Q3 UK GDP. The Dec'24 Gilt contract is currently capped by resistance at 94.00 which coincides with Friday's peak. The UK 10yr yield currently lingers just above Friday's trough at 4.46%.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent are firmer in what has been a choppy session for the complex thus far, having initially swung between gains and losses since the cash open. Brent’Jan 25 resides towards the upper end of a USD 70.70-71.80/bbl range.
• Precious metals are on a firmer footing, having rallied overnight alongside strength in silver, but without a clear catalyst driving the upside. XAU currently holds towards the upper end of a USD 2,566-597/oz range.
• Base metals hold a positive bias, continuing the price action seen overnight, where the complex benefited from a generally positive risk sentiment in APAC trade overnight.
• US President Biden’s administration plans on releasing a study on LNG environmental impacts and hopes to finalise a clean fuel bill before the January 20th Inauguration Day, according to the White House.
• Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude trading USD 70-85/bbl but could climb on harsher Trump sanctions on Iran, while it reiterated its gold target of USD 3,000/oz by December 2025.
• Russia's Ilsky oil refinery (300k bpd) has asked government for help, mainly over facility modernization and high interest rates.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• A Lebanese official says "We are open to the content of the draft US proposal and deal with it positively", via Al Jazeera.
• Israel conducted a strike on Beirut which killed Hezbollah’s media relations chief Mohammad Afif, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
• Tens were killed in an Israeli strike on a residential building in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahiya, according to Reuters.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said he strongly denies the reported meeting between Iran’s envoy and Elon Musk, while he added if the IAEA Board of Governors passes a resolution against Iran, Tehran will take reciprocal action and implement new measures in its nuclear program.
• Iran reportedly keeps the door open to talks with US President-elect Trump and its Deputy Foreign Minister noted that Tehran favours negotiations but will not yield to maximum pressure strategy, according to FT.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Biden’s administration lifted restrictions on Ukraine using US-made weapons to strike deep inside Russia, according to sources familiar with the decision cited by Reuters. NYT also reported that President Biden allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range US missiles, while Ukrainian President Zelensky said missiles speak for themselves and such things are not announced regarding long-range strikes.
• Russia's Kremlin on reported decision by Biden Administration to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia says these reports did not have official sources; if such a decision has been made by the US, this will usher in a new round of tensions. It would mean a new situation with the involvement of the US in the Ukraine conflict. If Western weapons are fired deep into Russia, this will not be Ukraine doing the targeting, but those countries which gave permission.
• US President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit the Russian depth was communicated to Kyiv about 3 days ago, while the motive behind the decision is to deter North Korea from sending more troops to Russia, according to a source cited by Axios.
• Russian upper house’s international affairs committee deputy head Dzhabarov said the decision to allow Ukraine to strike inside of Russia with US missiles is an unprecedented step that could lead to World War Three and will receive a swift response, according to TASS. Furthermore, it was also reported that a senior Russian senator said the US decision to allow Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range weapons represents escalation and could result in the Ukrainian statehood being in complete ruins by the morning.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia launched around 120 missiles and 90 drones in a massive combined air strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure early on Sunday morning, while Ukraine’s largest private power company said the Russian air strike damaged thermal power stations, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Russia’s Defence Ministry said Russian forces launched a massive strike on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure facilities that support the defence industry and military enterprises, according to RIA.
• Russian forces struck critical infrastructure in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region and western Ukraine’s Rivne region, while Russia’s missile attack damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine’s north-western Volyn region.
• Poland activated aircraft to ensure airspace security after Russia launched a missile attack on Ukraine.
• French President Macron said the massive Russian attack on Ukraine shows Russian President Putin does not want peace and they must continue helping Ukraine defend itself.
• Australia’s Defence Minister Marles said Japanese troops are to have regular deployment in Australia and focus on cooperation between Australian and US Marines.
• North Korean leader Kim urged the military to improve capabilities for fighting an actual war, while he added that threats by the US and allies brought tensions and calls for war preparations, according to KCNA.
• North Korea said Russia’s delegation led by the national resources minister arrived in North Korea, according to KCNA. It was separately reported that North Korea may end up sending 100k troops to Russian President Putin to support Russia’s war in Ukraine although it was also stated that the move is not imminent and troops could rotate in batches, according to Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Nov. New York Fed Services Business, prior -2.2
• 10:00: Nov. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 42, prior 43
• 16:00: Sept. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $79.2b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I went to bed at 7:30pm last night as a bout of suspected food poisoning has left me drained. I had a fever in the night which probably explains why I had the most peculiar dream where I was flying on a magic carpet. So please read the rest of the daily below this morning in that context.

At least it should be a quieter week as the recent relentless wave of US macro and political news flow in theory slows down with the main story on this front being on potential political appointments for the new Trump administration with Treasury secretary the one creating most interest with a huge amount of jockeying for position over the weekend between what are perceived to be the front runners, namely Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick. Elon Musk endorsed the latter over the weekend suggesting he would be a disruptor. Indeed one of his recent quotes is that "When was America great? 125 years ago. We had no income tax, and all we had was tariffs." So this will be a fascinating race.

Although the macro world will be much quieter this week just when you thought it was a good point to have a lie down after a busy few weeks, the biggest global earnings event happens after the bell on Wednesday with $3.48 trillion of market cap at stake. Yes you guessed it Nvidia reports after the bell. For context, the entire FTSE, DAX and CAC have a market cap of £2.08tn, €1.71tn and €2.31tn, respectively. So it's like a whole G7 country's stock markets reporting at exactly the same time.

The next most important event might be the global flash PMIs on Friday. The reason being that they may capture some of the initial sentiment impact from around the world regarding Trump's victory. Europe will be especially interesting on this front as the continent awaits their trade fate.

Outside of that there will be a focus on inflation with final Eurozone CPI (tomorrow), Canadian CPI (tomorrow), UK CPI (Wednesday), German PPI (Wednesday), and Japan CPI (Thursday) being the key ones. For the UK, our economist sees a mixed bag of inflation data, with headline CPI (DB forecast 2.07% YoY) and RPI (DB forecast 3.29%) picking up amid higher energy prices but core CPI is seen declining to 3.07% YoY and services CPI slowing to 4.78% YoY. His full preview is here. In Japan, our Chief Japan economist sees the nationwide CPI printing 2.1% YoY for core inflation ex. fresh food (2.4% in September) and core-core inflation ex. fresh food and energy at 2.2% (+2.1%).

There are also plenty of central bank speakers which you can see in the day-by-day week ahead at the end as usual which includes all the other data highlights this coming week.

Over the weekend, the war in Ukraine made headlines as President Biden authorised Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike targets hundreds of miles inside Russia for the first time, according to reports. That followed Russia embarking on its largest missile/drone attack on Ukraine in months on Saturday night. It seems ahead of Trump taking office both sides want to be in as strong a position as they can as any possible deal will be negotiated from their current position in the war.

Moving onto Asia, it's a mostly bright start to the week with the KOSPI (+1.90%) leading the way, driven by a rally in Samsung Electronics (a recent big laggard) after the company announced a surprise stock buyback plan. Chinese stocks are also higher, with the Shanghai Composite (+1.24%), the Hang Seng (+1.18%), and the CSI (+1.08%) all in positive territory following a call from China's securities regulator for listed companies to boost stock returns through share buybacks and other methods. Conversely, the Nikkei (-1.03%) is bucking the regional trend after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank would continue raising rates if the economy and prices evolve as expected. S&P 500 (+0.28%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.73%) futures are strong for this time of day after a sizeable -2.24% slump for the latter on Friday.

Early morning data showed that Japanese core machine orders unexpectedly contracted -4.8% y/y in September (v/s +1.8% expected) as against a -3.4% drop in the previous month.

Recapping last week now, markets lost ground from their post-election surge as the week progressed, as concerns about inflation and a potential trade war dampened risk appetite. In particular, US core CPI came in at +0.3% for a third month running in October, whilst core PPI was also at +0.3%, raising fears that inflation was becoming stuck above the Fed’s target. Then on top of that, Fed Chair Powell himself said that the economy was “not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”. So that led to growing doubts about a December rate cut, and futures dialled back the probability of a cut to 58%, down from 65% the previous week and a high of 82% last Wednesday.

With investors pricing in more hawkish policy, 2yr Treasury yields rose +5.0bps on the week, though they retreated -4.2bps amid a risk-off mood on Friday. The rise in yields was larger at the long-end, with the 10yr yield up +13.5bps (+0.3bps Friday) to 4.44%, its highest weekly closing level since May. That rise was led by real yields, with the 10yr real yield +15.9bps higher (+0.7bps Friday) to 2.11%. In turn, that meant the dollar index strengthened for a 7th consecutive week to a one-year high, having risen by +1.61% (+0.01% Friday). That dollar strength was partly as the rise in yields was not matched in Europe, with investors pricing a widening rate differential between the Fed and the ECB with the 10yr bund yield actually falling -1.1bps over the week (+0.3bps Friday) to 2.35%.

In the equity space, the S&P 500 fell -2.08% (-1.32% Friday), its worst performance in ten weeks, and erasing 60% of its post-election jump. The retreat was fairly broad, with weakness among chipmarkers and pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor index -8.64% (-3.42% Friday), while the small-cap Russell 2000 was down -3.99% (-1.42% Friday). European equities saw a relative outperformance, with the STOXX 600 only down -0.69% (-0.77% Friday), but this still marked a 4th consecutive weekly decline for the index.

Finally, it was another strong week for Bitcoin, which was up by another +17.08% in the week ending Friday, with a closing value of $89,511. Moreover, at its intraday peak on the Wednesday, Bitcoin had risen as high as $93,462. However, for commodities it was a pretty poor performance, with Brent crude down -3.83% to $71.04/bbl, whilst gold suffered its worst weekly performance since June 2021, with a -4.53% decline last week to $2,563/oz.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/18/2024 - 08:19

Trump Appoints FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr As Agency Chair

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday night made another appointment for his incoming administration, this time naming Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Commissioner Brendan Carr as agency chair.

FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr in Washington on March 11, 2024. Jack Hsu/The Epoch Times

As one of the agency’s five Senate-confirmed commissioners who serve staggered five-year terms, Carr is currently the senior Republican at the FCC.

The position of FCC chair is designated by the president from among the pool of confirmed commissioners, and does not require another Senate confirmation.

Carr was nominated as FCC commissioner by both Trump and President Joe Biden, serving across both administrations.

“I first nominated Commissioner Carr to the FCC in 2017, and he has been confirmed unanimously by the United States Senate three times,” Trump said in a statement posted on his Truth Social platform. “His current term runs through 2029 and, because of his great work, I will now be designating him as permanent Chairman.”

“Commissioner Carr is a warrior for Free Speech, and has fought against the regulatory Lawfare that has stifled Americans’ Freedoms, and held back our Economy,” the president-elect said. “He will end the regulatory onslaught that has been crippling America’s Job Creators and Innovators, and ensure that the FCC delivers for rural America.

[ZH] Most recently, Carr has set his sights on the relationship between 'news health rating' organization NewsGuard and Big Tech.

Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft & others have played central roles in the censorship cartel.

The Orwellian named NewsGuard along with “fact checking” groups & ad agencies helped enforce one-sided narratives.

The censorship cartel must be dismantled. pic.twitter.com/Xf0sEYOUfv

— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) November 15, 2024

You can’t make it up. NewsGuard says it provides apolitical guidance on "misinformation.”

Yet one of its own Advisory Board members signed the infamous Oct 2020 former intel officials letter falsely suggesting that the Hunter Biden laptop story was Russian disinformation.

— Brendan Carr (@BrendanCarrFCC) November 16, 2024

“Congratulations to Chairman Brendan Carr on a job well done. Lead us into a great future, Brendan!”

According to the FCC’s website, Carr led the agency’s efforts to update its infrastructure rules to “cut billions of dollars in red tape” and “accelerate the buildout of high-speed [5G] networks“ through private sector participation. He is also the champion of the FCC’s ”Connected Care Pilot Program“ telehealth initiative for low-income Americans and veterans, as well as a jobs initiative through community colleges that promotes apprenticeships ”as a pipeline for good-paying 5G jobs.”

Before he was confirmed and ascended to FCC commissioner, Carr served as the FCC’s general counsel and adviser to then-FCC chairman Ajit Pai.

Carr thanked Trump for the appointment.

“I am humbled and honored to serve as Chairman of the FCC,” he wrote on the X social media platform. “Now we get to work.”

Days before the Nov. 5 election, Carr said that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris may have violated an FCC rule against licensed broadcasters using public airwaves to influence an election in favor of a candidate unless the other candidate is offered equal time by the same broadcasters. This led to the NBC network airing a message from Trump on Nov. 4.

Carr will be replacing Biden’s FCC chair Jessica Rosenworcel.

The Senate confirmation of Biden’s nominee for FCC commissioner, Anna Gomez, in September 2023 established a Democratic majority (3–2) on the five-member commission.

During her time as chair, Rosenworcel proposed to reinstall the Obama-era net neutrality rules from 2015 and re-establish the FCC’s authority over broadband providers, which were removed by the agency during the first Trump administration.

Carr pushed back against the 2023 proposal, which he warned would give the federal government extensive authority to micromanage various aspects of internet service provision.

“The Biden administration has pressed the FCC to break hard left, and it has. The administration has put ideology over smart policy,” he said of the sweeping digital equity plan, urging for prioritizing important bipartisan priorities like allocating use of the radio frequency spectrum.

Savannah Hulsey Pointer contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/18/2024 - 08:05

Hedge Fund CIO: "China's Xi Watches In Cold Sweat As Trump Is Announcing His New Team"

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“This is quite a blue town,” said the CIO in DC. I had asked him about the post-election vibe. “Most of the city is kind of mourning, and a narrower group is euphoric.” We were discussing the profound change that has already begun to unfold post-election. The range of unorthodox and anti-establishment presidential appointments, the many possible consequences, economic, military, geopolitical. DOGE. “So, I worked in government for quite a few years,” he said. “And let me tell you, 30% of the people do 100% of the work.”

* * *

“China is ready to work with the new US administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-US relationship for the benefit of the two peoples,” said Xi Jinping yesterday, meeting with Biden in Peru.

China’s stock market had fallen 1.2% priced in dollars since November 4th,the day before America’s election. The S&P 500 had gained 2.8% in that time. The Euro Stoxx 50 index was -4.3% when priced in dollars, the economic chasm widening, inexorably. The UK stock market and the MSCI Emerging index both fell 4%.

“If we treat each other as an adversary or an enemy, viciously compete with and harm each other, the Sino-US relations will encounter twists and turns or even regression,” warned Xi, his economy struggling, its real estate crisis and debt burden suffocating the kind of growth he needs to maintain social cohesion. And beneath it all, China’s inescapable demographic collapse ground onward, such things are mathematically impossible to reverse.

Xi had watched in a cold sweat as America’s president-elect announced his new team, China hawks, trade hawks, anti-establishment players, people committed to challenging orthodoxy in every area of government; appointments unlike anything seen in modern American history.

And the policy platform for the world’s largest economy appeared to be designed to fuel a domestic boom, which if achieved would put further distance between the US, China, Europe, in fact every serious nation. This increasingly evident contrast would spark further unrest amongst the citizens in these same nations whose leaders were failing them in so many ways.

“China’s goal of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged,” declared Xi, outwardly calm, statesmanlike, but inside praying that somehow, someway, this would be the time that America’s remarkable and chaotic propensity for producing prosperity, revolution within, reinvention, would finally fail.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/18/2024 - 07:45

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Are U.S. Stocks Overvalued? When stocks go up presidents get too much credit and when they go down they get too much blame. It’s mostly circumstantial depending on the timing of cycles and such. But the markets move faster than ever these days. Investors are constantly pricing in the future, sometimes right, sometimes wrong, yet never in doubt. The stock market was already up big heading into the election but things took off in the days following the outcome. Many investors are positioning for a boom under a Trump presidency. The biggest pushback I’ve seen is that valuations have been stretched after the big run-up since the 2022 bear market. (Wealth of Common Sense)

• Many retailers offer ‘returnless refunds.’ Just don’t expect them to say for which products: It’s one of the most under-publicized policies of some of the biggest U.S. retailers: sometimes they give customers full refunds and let them keep unwanted items too. Returnless refunds are a tool that more retailers are using to keep online shoppers happy and to reduce shipping fees, processing time and other ballooning costs from returned products. (AP News) see also Returns Are a Headache. More Retailers Are Saying, Just ‘Keep It.’ In a survey, nearly 60 percent of retailers said they had policies that refund customers for items that aren’t financially viable to send back. (New York Times)

• What Does a Once-in-a-Generation Investment Opportunity Look Like? We are at a major inflection point in macro fundamentals and market leadership, offering investors a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reposition portfolios. To put the magnitude of this opportunity into perspective, we have identified what we believe are the best trades of the past 50 years — those asset class, regional and sector allocation decisions that would have netted the greatest long-term outperformance. Each of these trades would have generated excess returns averaging 7-19% per year spanning periods of 8-22 years: (CAIA)

• Just Because You Inherit a Co-op Doesn’t Mean You Can Live in It: Some instances allow for automatic approval, while others require you to be OK’d by the board (WSJ)

• The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI: Aalmost 40% of the U.S. population ages 18 to 64 used generative AI to some degree, and almost 1 in 3 respondents said they used it daily or at least once but not every day during the week prior to the survey. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) see also OpenAI just scored a huge victory in a copyright case … or did it? McMahon’s ruling may also undermine what has been a growing trend toward the licensing of copyrighted content by AI developers — in part to forestall copyright infringement claims. OpenAI reached a $250 million  licensing deal with Dow Jones, the parent of WSJ; OpenAI also cut deals with Axel Springer, the owner of Business Insider and Politico; the Financial Times; and the Associated Press. (Los Angeles Times)

• The New York Times is a right-wing newsletter, with recipes: Trash newspaper does trash thing. (Finding Gravity)

• The 25 Most Influential Cookbooks From the Last 100 Years: Chefs, writers, editors and a bookseller gathered to debate — and decide — which titles have most changed the way we cook and eat. (New York Times)

• How a breakthrough gene-editing tool will help the world cope with climate change: Jennifer Doudna, the co-developer of CRISPR, says there’s a “coming revolution” in climate-adapted crops and animals. (MIT Technology Review)

• Most “humane” farms are lying to you — and the government isn’t stopping them: A new investigation finds false advertising continues to dupe consumers. (Vox)

• The Clint Squint: “If I lost my squint, I think my whole career would go down the tubes.” — Clint Eastwood. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Colin Camerer, the pioneering neuroeconomist at California Institute of Technology. His field of study looks at the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. Professor Camerer was became a MacArthur Fellow (Genius grant) in 2013 for his work on risk, self-control, and strategic choice. His book “Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction” is credited with creating a new the field within strategic theory. He is also a Distinguished Senior Fellow with the Wharton Neuroscience.

 

Fed Expectations Are Usually Wrong

Source: Apollo

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

In "Major Policy Shift" Biden Authorizes Ukraine's Use Of US Missiles To Hit Targets Inside Russia

In a move straight out of Louis "After me, the flood" XV, the outgoing BIden admin, in a seemingly desperate move to destabilize the global geopolitical picture, has authorized the lifting of some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of western-made weapons to strike military targets inside Russia, according to reports from Bloomberg and the AP. The decision was reportedly shaped by North Korea ramping up support for President Vladimir Putin’s army and an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks on its neighbor. 

The approval represents a major U.S. policy shift and comes as the deep state-supported, dementia-ridden puppet Joe Biden is about to leave office and incoming President-elect Donald Trump has said he would bring about a swift end to the war and has expressed skepticism over continued support by the United States.

If approved, the capability would likely be used first in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine is fighting against North Korean troops as well as Moscow’s forces, the people said. Still, any permission, if granted, is unlikely to go as far as Ukraine has requested, one of the people said.

As the war in Ukraine heads into its third full winter, the US and its allies "have grown extremely concerned" about Pyongyang’s decision to deploy its forces in combat and assessments by some Group of 20 nations suggest North Korea could eventually send as many as 100,000 troops to Russia. The allies believe the deepening cooperation between Putin and Kim Jong Un could have consequences for the security balance in the Indo-Pacific region, Bloomberg has reported previously.

Discussions between the allies over missile strikes have intensified since Donald Trump won US elections earlier this month, another Bloomberg source said. Trump has said he will seek a quick deal between Ukraine and Russia to end the war, without specifying how.

In other words, Biden's puppet masters are urgently seeking to escalate the war in Ukraine to make the quick ceasefire sought by Trump impossible (after all, war is how the Deep State earns its income), and in doing so risking World War 3 as just two months ago, Putin warned that If Ukraine uses U.S. long-range missiles to strike Russia, the "United States is at war with Russia."

And just to underscore that mushroom clouds are coming, Putin since said that Russia "will use nuclear weapons if a mass enemy missile or UAV is launched towards Russia, or when these weapons cross into Russian territory."

"We will use NUCLEAR weapons if a mass enemy missile or UAV is launched towards Russia, or when these weapons cross into Russian territory"

-Vladimir Putin pic.twitter.com/H46vDkwAR1

— Richard (@ricwe123) November 17, 2024

Until now, Biden had remained opposed to such an escalation, determined to hold the line against any escalation that he felt could draw the U.S. and other NATO members into direct conflict with Russia. But what supposedly triggered the shift is not Trump's desire to end the war, at least not according to Bloomberg's deep state sources, but North Korea's decision to deploy deployed thousands of troops to Russia to help Moscow reclaim land in the Kursk border region that Ukraine seized this year, and which Russia has already mostly regained even as Ukraine continues to cede territory in the Donetsk region. The introduction of North Korean troops to the conflict comes as Moscow has seen a favorable shift in momentum.

As many as 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia, according to U.S., South Korean and Ukrainian assessments. U.S. and South Korean intelligence officials say North Korea also has provided Russia with significant amounts of munitions to replenish its weapons stockpiles.

Trump, who takes office in January, spoke for months as a candidate about wanting Russia’s war in Ukraine to be over. He also repeatedly slammed the Biden administration for giving Kyiv tens of billions of dollars in aid. His resounding election victory has Ukraine’s international backers worrying that any rushed settlement would mostly benefit Putin.

Which is where the deep state's World War 3 Hail Mary comes in, especially since the outgoing Biden administration has said it will send as much aid as possible to Kyiv before Trump takes office in January.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/18/2024 - 06:25

419 Million People Still $hit Outdoors

3.5 billion people still live without access to safe toilets, including 419 million who practice open defecation.

November 19 is the UN’s World Toilet Day and this year the theme is ‘Toilets: A Place for Peace’, highlighting how for billions of people, sanitation is under threat from conflict, climate change, disasters and neglect.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, according to UNICEF, children who live in extremely fragile contexts are three times more likely to practice open defecation, four times more likely to lack basic sanitation services and eight times more likely to lack basic drinking water services.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In 2022, 419 million people were still practicing open defecation, the most severe level of lack of sanitation service. Nineteen percent around the world did not have access to at least basic sanitation, defined as a private toilet connected to sewage piping, a septic or composting tank or a pit. Forty three percent of the global population did not live with safely-managed sanitation, meaning that their sewage was not treated properly, posing severe health risks to them as it enables pathogens to re-enter water supplies.

As recently as the year 2000, 1.3 billion people were still defecating outdoors, with grave health consequences. The UN has been working to eradicate the practice and has made some progress. In 2017, the number of those without access to any bathroom had sunk to 673 million and finally to 419 million in 2022.

Gains remain to be made in Sub-Saharan Africa, where steady population growth continues to put pressure on sanitation services. Cambodia, Ethiopia, Nepal and India saw the largest fall in outdoor defecation since the year 2000, reducing it from affecting around 70 to 85 percent of the population to seven to 20 percent.

The latter country has been particularly ambitious in installing proper toilets. Before Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2014, more than 60 percent of India's population didn't have access to a household toilet. Since then, billions of dollars have been invested under the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan ("Clean India") campaign. According to UN numbers, open defecation was reduced to affecting 11 percent of the Indian population in 2022.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/18/2024 - 02:45

US Obesity Levels Are Particularly Severe

In most OECD countries that collect self-reported weight data, more than half of adults are overweight or obese (2023 or latest available data).

However, as Statista's Anna Fleck reports, obesity prevalence was particularly high in the United States, with just over a third of respondents saying that they are obese in 2023.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In Chile and the United Kingdom rates were just above one in four, while Korea had the lowest share of people with obesity of the countries studied at just 4.9 percent.

According to the World Health Organization, a body mass index (BMI) of over 25 is considered overweight, and over 30 obese.

Obesity is linked to a range of health issues such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and several common cancers. Although awareness is increasing around the topic, obesity is still often misunderstood due to misconceptions of it being solely due to poor lifestyle choices, whereas factors such as genetic predisposition and environmental influences are also important.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 18:05

3D Chess Or 52-Card Pickup

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

3D Chess or 52-Card Pickup?

3D Chess always makes me think of Star Trek and wonder who the heck thinks that we need a game more complex than chess? 52-Card Pickup is a game most frequently played by siblings, and even then, only once or twice. Typically, the older sibling asks the younger one if they want to play 52-card pickup. Without knowing the game, but excited that their older sibling wants to do anything with them, the younger one instantly agrees. At which point the older sibling throws a deck of cards across the room and yells – there you go, 52-card pickup!

Depending on who you listen to, talk to, or follow, in its first full week, the Trump team is either playing an incredible game of 3D Chess, or is playing the equivalent of 52-Card Pickup with the nation.

It is far too early to say which side is right, and the final answer will likely fall somewhere in the middle. Having said that, there are a few things that have come up consistently in meetings, calls, and interactions with clients.

• There are various processes in place to effectively protect the system. Could they be bypassed by using Recess Appointments? I have to admit that Congress getting recess, like schoolchildren, has always amused me, but recess appointments would be a very aggressive tactic. They allow Trump to bypass the confirmation process (for up to a year) for some positions, presumably the most difficult/contentious ones. For some reason, this is also “part of the system and process,” so someone must have thought that there was a need for this. To me, this, like many things (including the 2+ month timeframe between the election and the inauguration) is likely a function of how difficult it was to travel across the country back in the day. It will be interesting to see how the appointments go, to say the least.

• If you are going to try to radically change D.C., often described as “draining the swamp,” it does make sense that non-traditional candidates would be selected. Yes, there are people with more experience than some of the nominees, but are they too close to the system to try and change it?

• D.O.G.E (the Department of Government Efficiency) has generated a lot of buzz. It seems to be the one thing that everyone is curious about and wants to see how it all plays out (even with a tinge of optimism that some spending can be cut without reducing or hurting services). It is also quite clear that Musk, one of the richest people on the planet, will play a major role in this administration, as a key advisor to President-Elect Trump.

Thinking about this dovetails well with last weekend’s Learning to Speak Trump Again. For better or worse, we should expect D.C. headlines to continue to create volatility for the markets.

Having said that:

• The 10-year Treasury is back to 4.44%, basically where it closed on November 7th. We’ve had some pretty big swings on a daily and even intraday basis, but wound up unchanged. I remain firmly in the camp that the deficit fears (and concerns about inflation from tariffs) are more than priced in right now.

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are both below where they closed on November 7th (for all the “growth” hype, that certainly grabs your attention). Maybe even more surprising, given the attention, is that the Russell 2000 is back to below its November 7th close, having dropped over 5% since it hit a high on Monday (maybe a good reminder that equity markets should shut down along with the bond market on Veterans Day).

• Gold was strong into the election, but has faded hard since then. Copper, which should benefit from growth if the “Dr. Copper” people are correct, is down over 12% since the start of the month. Oil has struggled, but energy stocks have done well, with XLE holding onto its gains. This makes some sense (see “Drill Baby Drill” from Fox Business this summer) as energy production should increase, helping to keep energy prices at bay, but creating some potentially strong profit growth.

• Bitcoin. Bitcoin has been incredibly strong. Yes, some volatility, but it has clung to the idea that a Trump administration will be very positive for crypto in general and Bitcoin (and Dogecoin) in particular. Given how many of the people in Trump’s inner circle are very positive on Bitcoin, it makes sense. On the other hand, Trump doesn’t control Bitcoin at all, and he does seem to like to control things, which may tarnish his current love affair over time. Also, for all the chatter about the U.S. government building up a “Bitcoin reserve” (it is hard to miss it, if you spend any time at all on X), I have not heard from anyone that this is really feasible. Most, which includes me, think that there will be an immense amount of resistance to government adoption (yes on clearer and helpful rules and regulations, but no on adoption by the government). You cannot fight this rally right now and maybe it is 3D Chess being played out, but it has the smell of 52-Card Pickup to me.

• Many of the Commercial Real Estate ETFs have done poorly. In some cases, they are much closer to their annual lows than highs, even as stocks in general perform well. I think that this is actually a very interesting opportunity as yield fears are overdone, and Work From Home is really going to struggle next year. More and more companies are limiting work from home as they push for a return to the office. That momentum feeds on itself. Many who were afraid to push for work from office will be emboldened. I cannot see a world where the Department of Government Efficiency (I’m not sure it is an actual department, but that doesn’t really matter given the attention that it’s getting) won’t be looking at getting more government workers back into the office. Everyone has focused on the potential for layoffs dragging down D.C.-focused real estate valuations, but I think that net/net over time, it will turn out to be good for D.C. commercial real estate. I see CRE as where I have the biggest difference of opinion with consensus views right now.

One Chart That I Cannot Stop Thinking About

We included this chart in our NFP reaction, but I feel a sense of urgency to highlight it again. Maybe this is our attempt to play 3D Chess, or maybe we are getting ourselves overly wound up about a non-event. Since we often discuss how dubious the Jobs Available calculation is for the JOLTS report, it may seem weird that the QUIT rate, from that same report, has grabbed our attention. My take on the QUIT rate is that it is “crowd sourced” data. Every individual has a pretty good idea about their own job prospects and that gets reflected in the QUIT rate.

During the financial crisis, the QUIT rate didn’t get this low until May 2008. If I remember correctly, we technically were not in a recession at the time, and only later did the powers that be declare that we actually were in a recession. That fits with my view that this rate is important and may have a predictive element to it.

I certainly think that when anyone and everyone felt like they could quit and get a better job, it was extremely difficult for management to take away work from home. I suspect that plans to offer severance packages to reduce the workforce voluntarily (one idea floated around by DOGE) won’t be that effective when workers don’t see outside opportunities readily available (that is my interpretation of the QUIT rate).

If we see a lot of progress made on the “Make America Great” front, this could change abruptly. There might be plenty of new jobs created. There might be jobs that were being done by undocumented workers becoming available. A lot could happen, but so far, I think the outlook on jobs is following the same path as stocks – initial jubilation has turned into a wariness about what might actually be achievable, let alone accomplished.

Bottom Line

Expect more volatility. We are going to get headlines and announcements that are difficult to interpret. What do they really mean? How likely is it to get accomplished? We know this administration is looking for CHANGE, but exactly what type of change they want is still a bit unclear in many areas. What they can achieve is even more unclear.

There is a clear sense of “urgency” as I cannot recollect any other election winner coming out so quickly with so many announcements!

I think we want to “fade” growth. We can buy dips in Treasuries and sell rips in stocks.

Maybe we will get a clearer picture, but I suspect in the coming days and weeks, the market will have more questions than answers. The fact that the original reaction to the election was so strong (with so many shorts being taken out, and so many newly minted bulls emerging) leaves us with potentially treacherous positioning. While legend has it that Wall Street likes to Climb a Wall of Worry, I don’t think it likes the current level of uncertainty. Maybe it is all 3D Chess, and we are just too naïve to see the master plan, or maybe we are all seeing enough things to question how effective this master plan will be?

While I like being overweight duration and underweight equities, I would not be a very aggressive overweight or underweight. It is more of an attempt to trade the volatility that is likely to continue.

On Bitcoin, if I hear one more $1 million price target, my head might explode, but for now, I can’t think of what will slow this down given the team around Trump, but then again, Trump himself might say something showing that he has had a change of heart (which is what I suspect will happen, but it seems too early for that to occur).

I did not focus on inflation, jobs, or other economic data (except to highlight the QUIT rate). I think that the data of the past few months will likely be irrelevant early next year as policies become clear and we can focus on what those policies will do to the economic data, and not worry about economic data that probably reflects a set of policies that will no longer be relevant.

We do get the most important earnings report for the AI story this week. Everything seems rosy in the space, but it is increasingly difficult to guess what has already been priced in.

Good luck and don’t stray too far from the desk, because you never know what headline might come out next! If you missed our Around the World Podcast from earlier in the week, it is a good listen.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 17:30

Cars, Meds, Oil, & Tech: America's Main Imports

Economic history has shown that, as an economy develops, so does its service sector. This is certainly true for the United States, one of the most highly developed countries in the world and certainly a service economy.

As Statista's Felix Richter details below, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, service-providing jobs account for more than 70 percent of nonfarm payrolls in the country, while goods-producing jobs account for less than 15 percent of jobs. In the 1940s, both sectors were tied at little above 40 percent, with government jobs accounting for the remainder of jobs.

There are two main reasons for this shift: productivity gains and globalization. As capital and goods began flowing freely across borders, it became cheaper to produce goods in parts of the world with lower labor costs and import them. This is how the United States gradually moved away from producing goods and how China became the world’s manufacturing hub, making anything from smartphones to television sets.

Last year, the United States imported around $3.1 trillion worth of goods, with Mexico, China and Canada accounting for more than 40 percent of that total. Among the top imported goods are cars, pharmaceuticals and all kinds of technology, be it smartphones, computers or semiconductors.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Experts have warned that all of these products would likely become significantly more expensive if president-elect Donald Trump went through with his proposed tariff plans.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 16:55

In Their Final Meeting, Xi Tells Biden China Is "Ready to Work" With Trump Administration

By Ryan Morgan and Emel Akan of The Epoch Times

President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Saturday for their final in-person meeting of Biden’s presidency. During their discussion, which lasted one hour and 40 minutes, Xi expressed China’s readiness to work with the incoming U.S. administration.

The meeting took place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, at the hotel where Xi was staying.

During his opening remarks, Xi told Biden, “The United States has recently concluded its elections. China’s goal of a stable, healthy, and sustainable China–U.S. relationship remains unchanged.”

“China is ready to work with the new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation, and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition of the China–U.S. relationship for the benefit of the two peoples.”

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters after the meeting that Biden and Xi covered a wide range of issues, describing their discussion as “candid” and “constructive.”

Biden told Xi that “he has worked hard to responsibly manage the competition” with China for the past four years to prevent it from spiraling into conflict, Sullivan said.

Both leaders are committed to responsibly managing this relationship during the critical transition period, he added.

WATCH: Biden takes a back seat to other world leaders during an international trip, relegated to a corner spot in the traditional family photo of the world's most powerful figures, while China's president takes the prominent front-and-center position. pic.twitter.com/dyOkaPwqNW

— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 17, 2024

The two leaders also spoke about “areas of friction,” Sullivan said, citing China’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base, military activity around Taiwan, unfair trade policies, and increasing aggression in the South China Sea.

Biden and Xi also touched on China’s relationship with North Korea, particularly as U.S. and Western intelligence assessments indicate North Korea has deployed troops to assist Russian forces in their ongoing war with Ukraine.

During the meeting, Biden expressed “grave concern” about North Korea’s involvement, Sullivan said.

The White House earlier indicated that the United States and its allies—South Korea and Japan—believed “China has a role to play” in dissuading the growing Russia-North Korea partnership.

Trump’s Return

President-elect Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House also loomed large over the Biden–Xi meeting.

Trump has repeatedly signaled he will employ tariffs of up to 60 percent on made-in-China products arriving in the United States.

Trump is also set to staff his incoming administration with several China hawks. He has already named Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.)—two staunch China critics—as his picks for secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively.

Beijing sanctioned Rubio twice in 2020 and banned him from entering China.

Sullivan declined to comment about Beijing’s reaction to Trump’s tariff plan.

“Look, I’m not going to comment on a future administration’s policies that have neither been formulated nor articulated,” he told reporters. “What I will say is that we have laid out in clear terms our concerns about non-market economic practices that the PRC has undertaken.”

Sullivan defended U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, stating that many countries have taken measures to address China’s overcapacity problem in critical sectors.

Continue reading at Epoch Times

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 16:20

Cruise Ship Offers Democrats Multi-Year "Escape From Reality" Package After Trump Victory 

Florida-based cruise line Villa Vie Residences unveiled a new four-year cruise package called "Skip Forward," offered to anyone suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. 

The Skip Forward package is part of the Tour La Vie program, starting at $40,000 per year, and is a "continuous global adventure for up to 4 years," the company stated in a press release. In other words, the multi-year excursion spans Trump's upcoming second term. 

In an interview, Villa Vie Residences CEO Mikael Petterson told AP News the cruise liner is offering voters who were not pleased with the election results four exclusive deals:

• 1-Year Escape from Reality

• 2-Year Mid-Term Selection

• 3-Year Everywhere but Home

• 4-Year Skip Forward

Petterson said the excursion to 425 ports across 140 countries allows voters to escape chaotic American politics.

He noted, "It just happened that Trump won. And more Democrats are unhappy with their current living situations in the US than Republicans." 

A Florida cruise company is offering a 4-year escape to Americans upset by the results of the Nov. 5 presidential election pic.twitter.com/FUy5OTqDhA

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 17, 2024

Petterson is right about the TDS explosion after the election. 

I fixed it for you pic.twitter.com/Dmoxdj02DI

— stephen hilton (@stephenhilton23) November 7, 2024

I still think about this video every now and then.

Can't wait what TikTok brings starting Jan. 20th. pic.twitter.com/qNO2a5eBXx

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) November 17, 2024

Google searches for "Move to Canada" surged immediately after Trump won. Far-left liberals melted down across all social media.

We can only imagine a Villa Vie Residences cruise ship packed with a thousand yelling liberal women and Harry Sisson.  At least their screams on the high seas won't be heard.

Meanwhile, Australian billionaire Anthony Pratt plotted his migration to the US following the Trump victory. 

What happens when Republicans win again in 2028? Extend the cruise trip? 

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 15:45

Hezbollah's Media Spokesman Assassinated By Israel In Heart Of Beirut After Haifa Synagogue Attacked

Via The Cradle

The head of Hezbollah’s Media Relations Department, Mohammad Afif, was assassinated in a violent Israeli airstrike on a building in the heart of Beirut on Sunday. 

"Fate willed that Hajj Muhammad Afif was inside the building at the time of the attack [in the Ras al-Nabaa neighborhood]," said the Secretary-General of the Arab Socialist Baath Party, Ali Hijazi. He said Afif was holding a meeting in the Baath party headquarters at the time of the Israeli strike. "Afif did not fight with weapons and did not lead a military unit in Hezbollah. Rather, he led a media unit," Hijazi added. 

Mohammad Afif, via AP

A Lebanese security source also confirmed to Al Jazeera that Afif was assassinated in the Israeli attack on central Beirut’s Ras al-Nabaa. At least five were killed and seven injured. There was massive destruction at the site, and the toll is expected to rise.

Hezbollah MP Hussein al-Jishi said to Al Mayadeen that "the enemy’s targeting of a media spokesman who always carries his phone in his hand is further evidence of its inability, and this is neither courage nor heroism."

Hezbollah itself has yet to release a statement. Israel also heavily targeted Beirut's southern suburb and other areas of the country on Sunday.

Israel had tried to assassinate Afif on October 3, when it targeted the building of Hezbollah’s Media Relations office in the southern suburb of Beirut. On October 22, it targeted the site where Afif was giving a speech in the Ghobeiry area of the suburb.

Afif gave a speech for Martyrs Day last week, during which he affirmed to Israel that Hezbollah is prepared for a long war. 

In his speech on 22 October, Afif publicly announced Hezbollah’s responsibility for the drone attack which exploded in the bedroom window of Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea.

"To the Israeli enemy, we say: you have only seen a little, and what happened in Haifa, Acre, and Safad is just the start ... To the leaders of the occupation: Iron for iron, blood for blood, and fire for fire," Afif said last month. 

On Saturday a synagogue in Haifa was destroyed when Hezbollah rockets rained down on the area...

Hezbollah rocket attack damages synagogue in Haifa, injures civilians pic.twitter.com/VBpE8o2dOp

— RT (@RT_com) November 17, 2024

Israeli media reports major damage to a synagogue in Haifa following missile launches from Hezbollah. pic.twitter.com/FHvvNPmIuf

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) November 16, 2024

Hezbollah continues to fiercely confront Israeli ground troops in southern Lebanon, while stepping up its rocket, drone, and missile attacks against Israel. 

Several Hezbollah rocket impacts resulted in heavy damage in the Haifa Bay area on November 16th. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 15:10

Trump Team Weighs Courts-Martial For Officers Who Oversaw Afghanistan Withdrawal

Donald Trump's transition team is making a list of senior military officers who oversaw the disastrous 2021 withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, and considering the possibility of court-martialing them for their failings, according to two sources cited by NBC News.  

“They’re taking it very seriously,” said a source who claims to have knowledge of the initiative. The most notorious incident of the chaotic withdrawal was the Aug. 26, 2021 suicide bombing at Abbey Gate, just outside Hamid Karzai International Airport in the Afghan capital, Kabul. Thirteen US service members and more than 170 Afghan civilians were killed. In the following days, a US airstrike intended to kill the leader of the Islamic State instead killed 10 innocents. The rapid collapse of the US-sponsored Afghanistan government allowed enormous quantities of US weapons to fall into the hands of the Taliban. 

These 13 US service members were killed by a suicide bomber at Hamid Karzai International Airport on Aug. 26 2021

Trump repeatedly pointed to the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle during his 2024 presidential campaign, calling the day of the suicide bombing "the most embarrassing day in the history of our country." Now, his transition team is exploring the creation of a commission to probe the decision-making that accompanied the withdrawal and to assess whether leaders could be charged and court-martialed. The team is even said to be considering whether officers who've left the military might be recalled to active duty to face military justice.

Potential charges include treason, a notion that seems far more rooted in casual use of the term than any reasoned legal analysis. Perhaps one might try to make the case that the forfeiture of a vast arsenal to the Taliban gave "aid and comfort" to enemies of the United States, but it seems highly doubtful such an argument would prevail in a court-martial. Alternatively, charges could theoretically be brought under provisions of the Uniform Code of Military Justice covering dereliction of duty, conduct unbecoming an officer, or negligent homicide.  

Three years ago today, American service members enduring some of the most unimaginable conditions of the entire GWOT during our chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, were attacked at Kabul Airport’s Abbey Gate. pic.twitter.com/BSeB8YG1Dh

— Black Rifle Coffee (@blckriflecoffee) August 26, 2024

Pete Segseth, the Fox news host whom Trump wants to appoint as Secretary of Defense, has leveled his own withering criticism at senior miltary officers. In his book "The War on Warriors," he wrote: 

“These generals lied. They mismanaged. They violated their oath. They failed. They disgraced our troops, and our nation. They got people killed, unnecessarily...And, to this moment, they keep their jobs. Worse, they continue to actively erode our military and its values — by capitulating to civilians with radical agendas. They are an embarrassment, with stars still on their shoulders.” 

According to NBC's sources, the transition team's Afghanistan accountability initiative is being led by Matt Flynn, who'd previously served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for counternarcotics and global threats. A North Carolina Army National Guard member, he has also held roles at the Department of the Interior, the White House, Department of State and Congress.

The Trump transition team's Afghanistan withdrawal accountability project is being led by former Pentagon official Matt Flynn, sources say (Photo: Steptoe) 

News of the potential prosecution of senior officers comes after earlier reports that the Trump transition team would establish a "warrior board" of retired senior military personnel which would be granted the power to review three- and four-star officers and recommend any removals of those deemed unfit for leadership. Such a board would likely target generals and admirals who've embraced woke ideology and diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 14:35

Net-Zero Rollback: How Trump Might Achieve De-Regulation Goals

Authored by Kevin Stocklin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump won the election on, among other things, pledges to roll back the regulations that were put in place under the Biden administration, particularly those intended to meet net-zero emissions goals in America’s energy industry.

President Donald Trump signs the last of three Executive Orders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, on Jan. 23, 2017. Ron Sachs - Pool/Getty Images

In many cases, however, that will be easier said than done, and may not be something Trump can achieve on day one, according to analysts.

According to the American Action Forum, the Biden administration has finalized 1,114 new regulations to date, adding $1.8 trillion in costs to American businesses and consumers and an estimated 346 million hours of paperwork. And depending on how the regulations were put in place, the incoming Trump administration will likely face challenges in unwinding them.

“It will be on a regulation-by-regulation basis,” Dan Kish, senior vice president of policy at the American Energy Alliance, told The Epoch Times. “There’s actually three categories: executive orders, action from Congress, and those things that have to be done through regulation.

“In other words, there’s a process that’s been set up for changing regulations,” he said. “But all of those things are available to [Trump] depending on what happens with the final Congressional outcome.”

For regulatory mandates that have gone through the formal process of being enacted as “final rules” by agencies, the Administrative Procedures Act (APA) stipulates that cancellation of those rules must go through the same process. This includes a notice and public comment period, as well as a 30-day delayed effective date and a process for judicial review if people can claim they would be adversely affected.

“You do need to undergo rule-making to change rule-making, but a lot of the Biden administration mandates weren’t issued through rule-making,” Matt Bowman, senior counsel and director of regulatory practice for Alliance Defending Freedom, which has litigated against Biden administration mandates, told The Epoch Times.

“We’ve won several cases against mandates that they didn’t bother to put through the rule-making process,” Bowman said. “Those can be taken down pretty quickly.”

Many of the regulations that were issued by direct orders from President Joe Biden will likely be rescinded in the same way.

“Executive orders will drive the overarching regulatory policy goals of the next administration,” Dan Goldbeck, director of regulatory policy at the center-right American Action Forum, told The Epoch Times. “But they will have limited direct impact on rules already on the books.”

The Role of Congress and the Courts

However, even for regulations that have gone through the rule-making process, there are several options available to the Trump administration to have them rescinded in short order. The first is have Congress overturn them using the Congressional Review Act (CRA) if Republicans are able to gain a workable majority in the House.

According to the CRA, agencies must submit final rules to Congress before they can take effect. If both houses of Congress disapprove of the rule, and the President concurs or Congress overrides a presidential veto, the rule cannot go into effect. There is, however, a time limit, effectively about 6 months, for Congress to take action.

Since its passage, the CRA has been used to overturn a total of 20 federal rules, 16 of which were Obama administration mandates overturned by a GOP-led Congress in 2017.

“It’s tough to say what the exact number will be this time around, but I expect Congressional Republicans to be quite active on this front,” Goldbeck said.

In order to avoid the fate of many Obama-era regulations that were blocked by Congress, the Biden administration rushed to finalize a number of rules well before the date when a new administration could take office.

“There’s plenty to suggest that the Biden administration made a point of finalizing some of its highest priority rules earlier this year to avoid potential scrutiny under the CRA,” Goldbeck said. “Nevertheless, the general expectation is that any rule finalized from the start of this past August onward will be vulnerable to repeal under the CRA.”

Even for regulations that are no longer subject to Congressional review, there are options to remove them fairly quickly, particularly those that have been challenged in court.

“Many of the rules, the most egregious rules the Biden administration imposed, are in court, and courts don’t need to wait for a rule-making process to strike down an illegal rule,” Bowman said. “Courts have already in some cases issued at least preliminary injunctions against those rules so that the Trump Department of Justice, if it prioritizes the President’s agenda, can acknowledge the illegality of some of these rules.”

Where lower courts have ruled in favor of the Biden administration, the DOJ can appeal those cases to the Supreme Court in hopes of getting a different verdict. And for cases that are awaiting decisions, federal agencies can delay enforcement of the rules until a verdict is reached.

‘Personnel Is Policy’

In Washington, it is often said that “personnel is policy.” Accordingly, the people that Trump puts in place within the agencies will also go a long way in determining how regulations are implemented, if at all.

“What he can do through executive orders is give instructions to the federal agencies to stand up or stand down on any number of initiatives,” Jonathan Berry, managing partner at Boyden Gray and former chief counsel to President-elect Trump’s first-term transition team, told The Epoch Times.

In addition, outside of existing agencies, Trump announced on Tuesday that Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will run a new department intended to oversee the reduction of regulations throughout the federal government and improve government efficiency.

How well Trump’s agencies coordinate among each another, including cooperation between regulators and the DOJ, will be a critical factor in determining whether or not Trump’s deregulatory agenda succeeds, according to Bowman.

“I think the President can achieve his goals if all of his appointees are on the same page,” Bowman said.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 14:00

Musk, Ramaswamy Seek Volunteers To Join New Department Of Government Efficiency

Authored by T.J. Muscaro via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy announced on Nov. 14 that they are looking for volunteers to join the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), calling for the top 1 percent of small-government revolutionaries.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk speaks at a rally for former President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Oct. 27, 2024. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

“We are very grateful to the thousands of Americans who have expressed interest in helping us at DOGE,” they announced on social media platform X. “We don’t need more part-time idea generators.

“We need super high-IQ small-government revolutionaries willing to work 80+ hours per week on unglamorous cost-cutting. If that’s you, DM this account with your CV. Elon & Vivek will review the top 1% of applicants.”

Musk further confirmed that DOGE work would be unpaid, stating on X, “Indeed, this will be tedious work, make lots of enemies, and compensation is zero. What a great deal!”

In response to that comment, Ramaswamy stated, “That stands in contrast to the many government bureaucrats who: (a) do little or no work, (b) tell people only what they want to hear, & (c) make more money than the value they create.”

DOGE’s objective is in its name: to make government more efficient, with significant spending cuts being among the top expectations.

“I look forward to Elon and Vivek making changes to the Federal Bureaucracy with an eye on efficiency and, at the same time, making life better for all Americans,” Trump said in a Nov. 12 statement announcing the new department and its leaders. “Importantly, we will drive out the massive waste and fraud which exists throughout our annual $6.5 Trillion Dollars of Government Spending. They will work together to liberate our Economy, and make the U.S. Government accountable to ‘WE THE PEOPLE.’”

Musk stated on X that all DOGE actions will be posted online to provide “maximum transparency.” This will include the creation of a leaderboard showcasing the “most insanely dumb spending of your tax dollars,” which he said would be “extremely tragic and extremely entertaining.”

He also urged the public to be vocal about anything that is being cut that they think might be important.

Trump said the initiative could be “‘The Manhattan Project’ of our time.”

The request for volunteers followed Musk’s announcement in September that he was willing to forgo compensation.

“I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises,” Musk said in a post on X. “No pay, no title, no recognition is needed.”

DOGE will work with the Office of Management and Budget and is set to complete its work no later than July 4, 2026, America’s 250th anniversary.

“Either we get government efficient or America goes bankrupt. That’s what it comes down to. Wish I were wrong, but it’s true,” Musk wrote on X, responding to Trump’s official announcement on Nov. 12.

Caden Pearson contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 12:50

Famed Iowa Pollster Ann Selzer Retires After Bombshell Miss 

A once-respected poll showed Vice President Harris leading by three percentage points in Iowa just days before the presidential election, which ultimately resulted in Donald Trump ahead by thirteen points—a massive margin of error of sixteen percentage points. 

Following this public opinion polling blunder, pollster J. Ann Selzer stated in a guest column in the Des Moines Register on Sunday that her days advising the paper's famed Iowa Poll are over as she will be "transitioning to other ventures and opportunities." 

Selzer was once considered the "gold standard" of polling, but after Trump swept the state by a 13-point margin, winning the actual vote 56-43%, she later acknowledged her poll was a "big miss" and suggested that it might have "actually energized [d] and activated [d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory," according to CNN.

J. Ann Selzer is retiring from election polling. "Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities..." https://t.co/n4nSLAvL2E

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) November 17, 2024

"Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities," Selzer wrote in the Des Moines Register, emphasizing how her decision to retire was well in play before her disastrous polling results failed to capture a Trump win accurately.

She continued, "Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I'm humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings." 

Well, perhaps science can become biased when some pollsters suffer from 'Trump derangement syndrome.' 

Separately, Kristin Roberts, chief content officer of Gannett Media, which owns the Des Moines Register, told CNN that the Iowa Poll will "evolve as we find new ways to accurately capture public sentiment and the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues."

"Our mission is to provide trusted news and content to our readers and the public," Roberts said, adding, "We did not deliver on that promise when we shared results of the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, which did not accurately capture the outcome of the presidential election."

X user Torsten Prochnow had a good take on Selzer's retirement...

Ann Selzer's retirement marks the end of what was once considered the "gold standard" of polling, though her final performance suggests that standard had long since tarnished. Her last Iowa poll—Harris+3—was a stunning 16 points off the actual result of Trump+13. Such a massive error doesn't just undermine her credibility; it reflects a deeper problem with polling in general, especially those aligned with the leftist media narrative.

Pollsters today, with few exceptions, seem less interested in accurately gauging public opinion and more focused on shaping it. Many have become extensions of the legacy media, crafting polls designed to serve as self-fulfilling prophecies for leftist victories. These tactics, however, are crumbling under the weight of their own bias. Americans have grown wise to the manipulation, and the results of 2024 prove it: reality shattered the illusions pollsters tried to sell.

Selzer's exit feels symbolic of a larger trend—trust in mainstream polling has hit rock bottom. As Trump secures overwhelming victories like his blowout win in Iowa, it's clear that the era of using skewed polls to influence elections is over. The days of false narratives propped up by questionable polling are gone, replaced by an electorate that refuses to be gaslit.

Ann Selzer’s retirement marks the end of what was once considered the “gold standard” of polling, though her final performance suggests that standard had long since tarnished. Her last Iowa poll—Harris+3—was a stunning 16 points off the actual result of Trump+13. Such a massive… pic.twitter.com/tb3e6DpdN0

— Torsten Prochnow (@TorstenProchnow) November 17, 2024

Here's some of our reporting on pollsters oversampling and attempting to shape outcomes for a potential Harris victory in the months before the election...

• Another Dem-Oversampled Poll Still Has Trump Beating Harris 48-45

• Harris Polls "Much Less Rosy" Than Reported, SuperPAC Admits

• Harris' So-Called 'Surge' Is Thanks To Oversampling: Pollsters

Meanwhile, the odds favored Trump at the betting platform Polymarket, as financial markets are generally more efficient. Pollsters (and MSM) suffering from TDS doomed themselves in the past election cycle, and their credibility has completely collapsed. As a result, Polymarket and other betting platforms are poised to dominate in upcoming elections.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 12:15

Trump Faces An Economic Catch-22 His First Day In Office... What Can He Do About It?

Authored by Brandon Smith

For the past several months I've been discussing the high probability of Donald Trump's return to the White House. Specifically, I have warned that the Biden/Harris Administration along with the Democrats have been using data manipulation to hide the growing threat of a stagflationary collapse within the U.S. within the next couple of years.

In my article Smoke and Mirrors: What Happens After Biden’s Economic Manipulations Disappear? published in September, I outlined the specific tricks Biden's team has been using to obscure the decline in the labor market, hide the true inflation problem, marginalize the exploding national debt issue and manipulate the CPI while artificially propping up GDP with government spending. In that article I noted:

If someone was to ask me what I predict, I would have to say Trump will be president again. From all the evidence I’ve seen the Harris campaign is an astroturf movement with a limited voter base. She’s obviously not very bright and I don’t think the theatrical “joy” strategy is convincing very many people of her competency. Her economic policies (including price controls) are full bore communist and would be devastating to any form of U.S. recovery. Her fiscal plan will be even worse than Bidenomics has been...

I suspect that if Trump enters office once again there will be a multitude of changes to our economic data and they will happen quickly. Some of the rigging is already being exposed, just not on a level where the majority of the populace is aware of it...

Now that the election outcome has been decided and Trump is the clear winner by a landslide in the electoral college and the popular vote, we should keep in mind that the real fight for the future of America starts in 2025. We should also consider the fact that the fate of the conservative ideal (and perhaps the ideals of all western civilization) are now inexorably tied to the success or failure of the Trump Administration.

Meaning, when Trump enter office again the establishment will seek to blame every negative event not just on Trump, but on ALL conservative and liberty minded principles. This is a problem because Trump is about to inherit perhaps the worst economic time bomb in American history.

I call it a Catch-22 trap and I predicted this dangerous outcome back in 2021. Here's how it works:

Because of dollar overprinting and government overspending the U.S. is now in a stagflationary death spiral. It took decades to produce this financial singularity, but it is finally upon U.S. and it will be very difficult to reverse.

When the government and the Federal Reserve were finally forced to acknowledge the stagflation crisis in 2022, the Fed had to be seen as at least trying to stop the bleeding. So, they launched interest rate hikes. The problem is, the U.S. is also suffering from exponential national debt and each rate hike greatly increases the amount of interest the nation has to pay per year. For now, the U.S. pays around $1 trillion in gross interest every three months. This means our national debt will skyrocket while rates are high.

But the Fed has entered a process of rate cuts, you say? Inflation is defeated, you say?

The whole calamity has been conveniently solved by Joe Biden and friends right before Trump takes over, you say?

No.

Inflation is still a problem (concealed by statistics)

The problem is that the inflation threat has not been solved, it has been hidden. CPI is not a measure of cumulative inflation, it is a measure of monthly inflation diluted by tens of thousands of goods and services, most of them not necessities. For the past couple years Biden has been dumping U.S. strategic oil reserves on the market in order to bring energy prices down and artificially reduce CPI, but this has not lowered cumulative inflation.

As the Fed cuts rates through 2025, the inflation panic will return.

And if the Fed keeps rates high to counter inflation, the national debt climbs to disastrous levels.

If they cut rates, then inflation returns and price increases will continue to spiral.

Damned if we do and damned if we don't, and guess who gets the blame? That's right, Trump and his cabinet.

And for those who argue that Americans won't blame Trump because they'll know that the decline was caused by Biden, I would note that public patience shrinks as quickly as their bank accounts. They will blame whoever is in power now, when the bomb goes off, regardless of who lit the fuse.

The Democrats already tried to blame Trump for the majority of the stagflation crisis and the covid crisis (even though it was Democrat states that attempted to keep lockdowns in place permanently). You know they'll keep the propaganda pumping constantly for the next four years.

But what can the Trump Administration do to defuse the situation? I could write an entire book on this but here are the first few actions I would take if I were in his shoes:

#1 - Expose Biden’s data manipulation

The first thing Trump needs to do is set up an economic advisory board (Ron Paul would be a great candidate to lead such a project) and one of their primary tasks should be to expose how the Biden Admin has been hiding the real economic data from the nation at large.

The temptation will be to keep this data under wraps for fear that it will destroy the country should everyone know the facts. I think the country has voted in great numbers for an end to the status quo and that they want transparency. We can handle the truth.

If Trump doesn't educate the public on how the Democrats and the establishment have been rigging the numbers, then the public will ultimately blame conservatives for any eventual crash. Also, when the public knows the truth, they will also understand why dramatic changes to policy need to be made.

#2 - Offset tariffs with incentives for domestic industry and manufacturing

A major pillar of Trump's economic plan includes tariffs on foreign goods as a way to pay off the national debt, reduce taxes and fund the government. Leftists claim tariffs are actually a “tax on the American consumer” and will end in disaster as prices rise. They're ignoring the fundamental point.

Tariffs cause an increase in prices on foreign-made goods, not American made products. We simply need to manufacture more in the U.S. Why does the U.S. need to remain stuck as a consumer country only? Why can't we also produce?

First, tariffs are not just a tax, they are leverage. Europe is already talking about buying more commodities and goods from the U.S. so they can avoid high tariffs. China is likely to do the same. The U.S. is the biggest consumer market in the world with 30% of global share. No other nation comes close. Producer nations would face economic disaster without access to U.S. customers.

That said, it's not enough. There needs to be a backstop of domestic production and I think this could also help reduce price increases. How? If the U.S. focuses on what I call the “quality economy” then prices will be higher for a time, but in the long run inflation will drop significantly. The key is that we produce goods with a high quality standard – products that last for many years and have a significant warranty attached.

If our goods are better than foreign products and they last longer, then people will buy less stuff over time. This means reduced spending, more savings, lower demand and ultimately lower prices.

There's a number of ways Trump could subsidize this domestic manufacturing boom while also greatly increasing American wages and the standard of living. Biden pretended he was going to do this with his so-called Inflation Reduction Act and his green energy programs.

Trump could do it for real.

#3 - Issue government debt backed by gold or silver (and precious metals savings accounts)

Currently, the U.S. is facing rising costs on debt with declining foreign interest in “investing” in federal IOUs. In order to stop the death plunge of national debt and the explosion of debt service payments, radical measures need to be taken.

The inflation and debt issues are not going to solve themselves. The Federal Reserve does not have the tools to fix the situation even if they wanted to. However, Trump does have the power to issue special debt backed by the gold and silver reserves of the U.S. government. This allows him to bypass the Fed.

A maturity of around 5 years or more would be ideal to fund his short-term initiatives. He could set the payoff at maturity according to the true market price of gold and silver. (First, a federal investigation into gold and silver price manipulation by major banks would need to be pursued concluded.) At maturity, they’d be redeemable in dollars or physical gold or silver. That’s always been the #1 method of instilling trust in assets.

A similar idea would be to create a savings account backed by U.S. gold and silver reserves. Make a term deposit of currency and, upon maturity, the account can be exchanged for physical gold and silver metals or dollars. Or a debit card, or even cryptocurrency could be issued for those savings.

I believe this could solve the national debt issue by reviving foreign enthusiasm for federal government debt. Furthermore, this would alleviate the inflation problem by offering all Americans easy access to inflation-resistant gold and silver to protect their savings from inflation (and making a little extra money on the side). The more people who participate, the higher the value of metals will go.

Americans can and should buy physical precious metals, but let’s be honest, gold coins and silver bars don't spend easily in everyday transactions. We need an intermediary system that offers people liquidity. Shifting directly back to a gold standard would cause significant chaos in U.S. and global financial systems.

Let’s face it – we can't go cold turkey on the Federal Reserve note. We need to wean the nation off unbacked, intrinsically-worthless currency. Opening up access to our nation’s gold reserves is a starting point.

I'm also sure there's plenty of Keynesians out there that will claim that giving citizens access to gold and silver is impossible and it will destroy the economy. I tell you it’s Keynesian thinking that got us here in the first place.

What I'm proposing here is a middle ground option that could lead to a commodity backed currency system in the future. We must deal with our immediate debt crisis and inflation crisis, but it's not impossible.

#4 - A moratorium on debt ceiling increases

The gold and silver savings account program and tariffs would allow the federal government to continue funding itself while also cutting taxes and putting a stop to deficit spending by cutting out waste.

Every time there's a debate over the debt ceiling and conservatives call for a stop to the madness, Democrats (and neocons) accuse them of putting the country in peril. They hold the country hostage with tales of collapse until fiscal conservatives inevitably give in and the debt continues to rise.

No more.

We cannot keep consuming debt poison and expect our national health to improve.

When Elon Musk took on the ownership of Twitter he fired over 80% of the existing workforce. Leftists said the website would implode within months. They were wrong (again) and the site now functions better than ever despite far higher user traffic. The federal government is a lot like the old Twitter – It's a bloated and obese bureaucracy loaded with self-serving dead weight that needs to be torched before it causes a systemic heart attack.

This is the only way things will get better, not just for us, but for our children and their children.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 11:40

Who Really Profits From The Ukraine War?

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

Few people understand what the war in Ukraine means for big business - namely, opportunity. It’s not just the weapons and reconstruction contracts. Ukraine’s vast agricultural lands - among the most fertile in the world - are up for grabs, and American companies like BlackRock are at the front of the line. RFK Jr. Deftly and clearly explains.

JP Morgan and BlackRock — From Financiers of Destruction to Half-Trillion Dollar ‘Heroes’ of Reconstruction – The Hypocrisy of Reconstruction of Ukraine by the Same Corporations that Profited from the War

JP Morgan and BlackRock, along with consultancy McKinsey & Company, are collaborating with the Ukrainian government to establish a reconstruction fund. The objective of this fund is to attract significant investments for the country’s reconstruction, which could cost between $400 billion and $1 trillion, depending on estimates. This fund, known as the Fund for the Development of Ukraine, will use a “blended finance” approach to mobilize both public and private capital, targeting priority sectors such as infrastructure, climate and agriculture.

BlackRock and JP Morgan offered their services pro bono to manage this fund, leveraging their expertise in financial markets and debt management. The intention is that this fund can begin to operate fully once the war ends, although planning is already underway and has been discussed at recent international conferences.

The recent partnership between JP Morgan, BlackRock and McKinsey & Company to rebuild Ukraine highlights the bitter irony of the current geopolitical situation. In a deal that aims to raise hundreds of billions of dollars for the reconstruction of war-torn Ukraine, these American financial giants now position themselves as the economic saviors of a country whose destruction, in part, was facilitated by policies and actions in financial markets that they themselves dominated and shaped.

The United States, through its foreign policies and interventions, has a long history of fomenting instability in various regions of the world. In the case of Ukraine, the situation is no different. From the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, American interests were clear: to weaken Russia and expand the Western sphere of influence. The irony becomes even more evident when we consider that many of the same financial institutions now being called upon to rebuild Ukraine are those that have profited immensely from armed conflicts and the destabilization of global markets.

JP Morgan and BlackRock are entities deeply rooted in the global financial system, and both have a history of financing military industries and governments that perpetuate conflict. JP Morgan, for example, has a long history of involvement in financing wars and authoritarian regimes around the world. BlackRock, in turn, as the largest asset manager in the world, has stakes in practically all major defense companies, which profit directly from the manufacture of weapons used in conflicts such as Ukraine.

This dichotomy is alarming: the same institutions that financed destruction are now celebrated as leaders of reconstruction. The “fund of reconstruction” proposed for Ukraine is not just a humanitarian effort; it is also a strategic maneuver to ensure that Western capital has control over the country’s future assets and economic infrastructure. The reconstruction of Ukraine, costing up to a trillion dollars, presents a lucrative opportunity for these companies, which are now seen as saviors.

Furthermore, McKinsey & Company’s presence on the project adds an additional layer of criticism, as the consulting firm has frequently been accused of unethical practices and collusion with corrupt regimes. McKinsey’s lack of transparency and controversial practices call into question the integrity of the reconstruction process.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 09:20

Climate Summits "No Longer Fit For Purpose", Experts Say

It looks like experts are starting to realize that the litany of global 'climate summits', where participants fly in on private jets to wax poetic about the virtues of attempting to change thousand-year cooling and warming cycles on Earth, could need some reform.

Leading climate experts, including Ban Ki-moon, Mary Robinson, Christiana Figueres, and Johan Rockström, are calling for significant changes to UN climate summits, according to a new report from The Guardian.

They argue future conferences should only be hosted by nations demonstrating strong climate action and advocate for stricter controls on fossil fuel lobbyists. Over 1,700 industry lobbyists attended Cop29, raising concerns about undue influence.  

The group has urged the UN to streamline the annual summits, amplify the voices of developing countries, and increase meeting frequency to better address the climate crisis.

“It is now clear that the Cop is no longer fit for purpose. We need a shift from negotiation to implementation,” they wrote. 

“We need strict eligibility criteria to exclude countries who do not support the phase-out/transition away from fossil energy. Host countries must demonstrate their high level of ambition to uphold the goals of the Paris agreement,” they said. 

Cop29, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, is nearing its halfway point amid controversy. Azerbaijan, a major fossil fuel producer with oil and gas comprising half its exports, follows last year’s host, the UAE—a petrostate led by Sultan Al Jaber, who retained his role as head of Adnoc during the conference.

At Cop29 in Baku, controversy surrounds the presence of 1,773 fossil fuel lobbyists, more than any nation except Azerbaijan, Brazil, and Turkey, and far exceeding the 1,033 delegates from the 10 most climate-vulnerable nations.

The Guardian wrote that former U.S. Vice President Al Gore criticized the fossil fuel industry's influence and called for reforms in choosing host countries. Talks center on securing $1 trillion annually by 2030 to help poorer nations address climate challenges, but progress is slow, with disagreements over contributions from developed nations and emerging economies like China.

Campaigners demand polluters pay, while a report suggests innovative funding options, including levies on cryptocurrencies, plastics, and air travel, or a 2% wealth tax, to bridge finance gaps. Negotiations will continue into next week.

Recall, just days ago we wrote about a how a senior COP29 official in Azerbaijan reportedly used his role as heading up the fight on climate change...to secure meetings with potential investors in the country’s oil and gas sectors.

Energy production drives 60% of Azerbaijan's economy. Elnur Soltanov, Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister and COP29 chief, was covertly recorded discussing investment opportunities in the state-owned SOCAR, according to PJ Media.

"SOCAR Trading is trading oil and gas all over the world, including in Asia. To me, these are the possibilities to explore. But in any case this is something that you need to be talking to SOCAR, and I would be happy to create a contact between yourself and them," he was caught on tape saying. 

He added: "We have a lot of gas fields that are to be developed."

The PJ Media report says that SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company, reportedly responded to a fake investment group, indicating interest in meeting, according to Global Witness.

In the meeting, COP29 head and Azerbaijan's Deputy Energy Minister Elnur Soltanov discussed the event’s goals, stating that COP aims to “solve the climate crisis” by “transitioning away from hydrocarbons.”

Still, he expressed openness to oil and gas investments, pointing to Azerbaijan’s gas expansion plans and new pipeline infrastructure. This marks the second year a petro-state has used its COP presidency to promote fossil fuel interests, raising questions for the UN on oversight.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 08:45

Visualizing How Trump Realigned The Political Landscape

Authored by Joseph Lord and Terri Wu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election was the result of demographic shifts that benefited Republicans.

Exit polling by Edison showed that Americans were more similar in their voting patterns this cycle than they were divided—the expected wide gaps based on gender, education, age, and race between Republicans and Democrats failed to materialize.

Trump ultimately was able to narrow these gaps vastly compared to 2020, concentrating on economic messaging that was compelling to a broad cross section of American political society.

Currently, the president-elect is projected to have carried all seven of the core swing states, bringing him up to a total of 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 226.

These charts show the shifts that gave Trump a second, nonconsecutive term in the White House.

Gender

This campaign season was unusually gendered in each campaign’s strategy.

Harris sought to target female voters, using the issue of abortion as a rallying point. Trump focused more on male voters, particularly young men, and appeared on podcasts popular with the demographic.

Thus, observers expected a substantial gender divergence that, ultimately, didn’t materialize.

In reality, Trump outperformed among both men and women, winning white men, white women, and Hispanic men outright and increasing

Education

Democrats have gained ground among wealthy, white, college-educated voters in recent years, and those trends continued in 2024.

This cycle, Harris gained among white college-educated voters, winning 17.2 percent of total votes cast for the presidential election from the group. President Joe Biden received 16.3 percent of his votes from the group in 2020, a 0.8 point shift. That’s unsurprising, as Harris targeted these voters.

Trump has also made gains for the GOP among non-college educated voters across racial groups.

Technically, Trump also lost a point of support from white non-college educated voters compared to 2020, though that’s within the exit poll’s margin of error.

But where he lost some among white voters, he gained among minority voters, including both those with and without college degrees.

Age

Traditionally, young people tend toward Democrats and older people veer more Republican.

That standard wisdom, however, was flipped on its head in this election: Harris underperformed with young voters, meaning those aged 18 to 29.

While Trump managed to win 18- to 24-year-old voters outright, 25- to 29-year-olds slightly favored Harris, bringing Trump’s total with the group to 43 percent—an increase of 7 percent compared to 2020.

At the same time, Harris made gains with older voters, winning voters aged 65 and older outright. The oldest voters reduced their support for Trump by around 3 percent, with 45 percent supporting the president-elect this cycle.

Race

Likewise, the Democratic coalition has historically relied on minority voters as a counterbalance to Republican-leaning white voters.

In this election, Trump again won among white voters outright, which was crucial to his sweeping victory, as the group made up nearly 71 percent of the electorate. White voters backing Trump accounted for 40.5 percent of the electorate versus Harris’s 29.1 percent.

However, Trump also made crucial inroads with other racial groups.

His vote share among blacks nudged up 1 percent in 2024 versus 2020, driven largely by shifts among black men.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/17/2024 - 08:10