Futures Slide As Markets Await "Liberation Day" Details

Stocks resumed their slide and Treasury yields held near one-month lows with just hours to go before President Trump’s tariffs tariff announcement, amid swirling speculation over the details of the proposed trade action. As of 8:00am, S&P futures traded 0.5% lower; tech underperformed sending Nasdaq futs down 0.7% with Mag 7 all lower with TSLA (-1.0%) and NVDA (-0.6%) being the biggest laggards; Newsmax dropped 25%, pausing a blinding IPO rally that briefly pushed the company above Fox Corp. European and Asian stocks both slumped.  The Dollar sank and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady after falling on Tuesday to the lowest since early-March. Commodities are mixed: base metals are lower, while precious metals are mostly higher (silver +1.0%) and gold just shy of its record high. All eyes on the Rose Garden event “Make American Wealthy Again” at 4PM with Trump delivering his announcement on tariffs. On today's data calendar, we get ADP (exp. 120k) and Factory Orders (0.5%, ex trans 0.4%).

In premarket trading, Tesla is leading losses among the Mag 7 (Alphabet -0.5%, Amazon -0.9%, Apple -0.4%, Microsoft -0.5%, Meta -0.9%, Nvidia -1.6% and Tesla -2.6%). Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) tumbles 29% after posting top-line data in its phase 2 study of EDG-7500. Newsmax (NMAX) drops 20% as the conservative media outlet pauses its blinding IPO rally which saw shares surge 2,230% since its debut this week. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• NCino (NCNO) slides 34% after the software company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) slips 2% after registering a direct offering of 2.7m shares, with the offering priced at $19.06 each.
• Truist Financial Corp. (TFC) slips 1% after Raymond James cut the recommendation on the financial services firm ahead of the upcoming earnings, with analyst Michael Rose saying he “would not be surprised to see episodes of reduced financial guidance, leading to negative revisions to EPS estimates during the April reporting season.”
• TTEC Holdings (TTEC) soars 27% as the IT services company said it’s open to discussing CEO Kenneth Tuchman’s offer to buy the remaining shares he and his affiliates don’t already own at $6.85 per share.

Trump is due to reveal his tariff plans in the White House Rose Garden just as US markets close at 4 p.m. Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. Bloomberg reports that the size and scope of tariffs have still to be finalized. The White House has said the tariffs would take immediate effect, but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. The lack of clarity doesn’t bode well for risk sentiment heading into the event, scheduled for 4pm ET. Central bankers are also expressing caution. Richmond Fed chief Barkin said tariffs could raise both inflation and unemployment in a “cage match” between consumers and businesses. Chicago Fed chief Goolsbee said that if tariffs lead to lower consumer spending, “that would be a bit of a mess.” Sure enough, according to Goldman's Prime Brokerage, hedge funds reduced exposure to global equities in March, with the most net selling in 12 years.

“There isn’t anywhere to purely hide, because of the huge uncertainty that is in the market at the moment,” said Helen Jewell, chief investment officer of fundamental equities EMEA at BlackRock. Jewell does not expect the confusion to dissipate after Trump’s announcement. “It is very much the opposite,” she said. “It just keeps that risk in the market and it kicks that risk can down the road.”

Meanwhile, China took steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US, Bloomberg reported; that comes a day after the European Commission vowed to retaliate against US tariff moves.

“Perhaps the most important question is whether this announcement will tip the scales toward a global recession,” said Oliver Blackbourn, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

A quiet earnings week continues. Uniform maker UniFirst (UNF US) reports premarket and may offer clues on the impact from DOGE job cuts. Tesla 1Q deliveries are also due. Analysts expect Musk’s company to have delivered around 390,000 cars, potentially its worst quarter in a year.

Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 0.7% ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement, with healthcare stocks among the biggest losers as mass layoffs at the US Department of Health sowed uncertainty over the outlook for vaccines and gene therapies. Among single stocks, Mercedes-Benz Group AG fell after Bloomberg reported the automaker could withdraw its least expensive cars from the US if tariffs make their sales unfeasible. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Grifols advances 10% in Madrid trading after El Confidencial reported that Brookfield has restarted contact with the Spanish plasma company on a possible buyout offer after a first attempt failed last year
• The Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage index is the best-performer in Europe this morning, after Berenberg reiniated coverage of the sector; Biggest points-gainers include Diageo (+1.8%), Pernod Ricard (+0.8%), AB InBev (+0.2%) and Heineken (0.4%)
• Bakkavor shares rise as much as 6.9%, hitting their highest level since 2018, after reaching an agreement in principle on a new £1.2 billion offer from fellow London-listed Greencore Group. Analysts welcome the idea
• Svitzer gains as much as 32%, the most since its May 2024 spinoff from Maersk, after the Danish marine services firm received a DKK9 billion ($1.3 billion) takeover offer from AP Moller Holding at DKK285 per share
• Raspberry Pi shares rise as much as 10% after the British PC maker said it expects demand to improve through the year from subdued levels of mid-2024, given inventory levels now “normalized”
• Barco shares rise as much as 9.3%, hitting their highest level since May, after analysts at ING Bank upgraded the visualization specialist, arguing it is a “far more attractive company” now growth is back on
• Friedrich Vorwerk shares rise as much as 4.6% to a record high after Berenberg hiked its price target on the stock to a Street high, citing a long growth runway and double-digit margin growth in the next year
• Chemring shares rise as much as 4.9% after its Roke unit won a UK missile defense contract worth £251m over six years. The contract starts immediately and covers a broad spectrum of missile defense activities
• European healthcare stocks drop on Wednesday and are the worst performing subgroup in the Stoxx 600 Index, as investors await further clarity on potential tariffs
• BNP Paribas and Societe Generale shares both fall about 3% in Paris as Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades its ratings on the French lenders following recent rallies
• Tryg falls as much as 5.6%, the most since January 23, after Citi downgraded the insurance firm to neutral from buy on news that the Danish Competition Council announced a possible review of consumer insurance firms
• Norma shares fall as much as 6.8%, hitting the lowest level since late November, after Quirin Privatbank downgraded the German component maker to sell and set a Street-low price target

Earlier in the session, Asian equities also fell as investor sentiment remained volatile. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1%, reversing from a 0.8% gain in the previous day. Xiaomi, Sony Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial weighed the most on the gauge, while Recruit Holdings and Fast Retailing provided the biggest boosts. Performances in the region were mixed, with markets in the Philippines and Malaysia gaining the most, while South Korean shares underperformed. The country’s small-cap index Kosdaq lost 1%. Japan’s benchmark Topix also slid 0.4%. Indonesia’s market was shut for a holiday.

“Investors are very anxious, and markets are waiting with bated breath to see what he will say and do later today,” Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, wrote in a note. “The best strategy at this juncture is not to panic, but instead to focus on the medium term and manage risk by keeping a diversified portfolio and time-diversifying fresh investments via dollar cost averaging.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slips 0.1%, down a second day as antipodean currencies outperform, with the kiwi dollar up 0.8% against the greenback. EUR/USD climbs 0.1% to 1.0800; Governing Council member Olli Rehn reiterated that the ECB isn’t pre-committing to any particular path on interest rates. Aussie and kiwi advanced in part on buying from exporters hedging out of US dollars on the premise that reciprocal tariffs will be more centered than harsh, according to Asia-based FX traders. Low engagement from the leveraged community ahead of the announcement remains the main theme in the major currencies, according to traders in Europe and Asia. Traders undecided on what’s next for the G-4 space also seen through price action unfolding lately close to 21-DMAs.

In rates, treasuries extend gains into the early US session, leaving futures near the highs of the day and yields lower by up to 3bp across the belly of the curve, which leads gains on the day. US yields are richer by 1bp to 3bp across the curve, with 5s30s spread sitting near highs of the day and steeper by 1.5bp, unwinding a portion of a sharp two-day flattening move seen so far this week; US 10-year yields trade near lows at around 4.15%, remain inside Tuesday’s range. Bunds are little changed while Gilts underperform as UK 10-year yields climb 2 bps.

In commodities, spot gold rises $17 to $3,130/oz. Bitcoin pared an earlier fall to trade little changed near $85,000. WTI is steady around $71 a barrel.

The US economic calendar includes March ADP employment change (8:15am), February factory orders and durable goods orders (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Kugler at 4:30pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.6%, 
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.8%, 
• Russell 2000 mini -0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.7%, 
• DAX -1%, 
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.17%
• VIX +0.5 points at 22.27
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1272.15, 
• euro little changed at $1.0801
• WTI crude -0.2% at $71.05/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump’s team is still finalizing plans for reciprocal tariffs to be unveiled at 4 p.m., people familiar said. Proposals include a tiered system with a set of flat rates for countries and a more customized plan. Scott Bessent told lawmakers the tariffs will start at their highest level and countries can then take steps to bring them down. BBG
• Planned new U.S. tariffs could have a huge impact on world trade, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday, warning of a possible hit to global growth hours before President Donald Trump is set to unveil reciprocal tariffs. RTRS
• A group of 50 Republican and Democratic senators introduced a sanctions package to hit Russia and countries that buy its oil if President Vladimir Putin refuses to engage in good-faith ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine or breaches an eventual agreement: BBG
• Walmart Inc. is continuing to push Chinese suppliers to cut prices by 10% to offset President Donald Trump’s tariffs, even after Beijing officials summoned the US retailer’s executives last month to discuss the issue. BBG
• Democrat wins the Wisconsin judicial race by ~9 points, a solid victory and one that raises a red flag for Republicans. Also, Republicans easily won both Florida special House elections, as expected, although the GOP underperformed the Nov margins of victory, raising potential warning signs for the party. Politico
• Izzy Englander’s Millennium Management and Ken Griffin’s Citadel lost money last quarter even as other hedge funds gained: BBG
• China has taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in the US ahead of new tariffs, people familiar said. Several branches of China’s top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for such firms. BBG
• China highlighted US farmers and tech companies as beneficiaries of economic ties in the Communist Party’s official newspaper, an apparent appeal to cool trade tensions ahead of tariffs. BBG
• China held a second day of drills around Taiwan, involving “precision strikes” on simulated targets including ports and energy facilities. BBG
• Israel will broaden its ground operations in Gaza and turn seized land into buffer zones. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is deploying a second carrier to the Middle East as the US continues its strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. BBG
• US crude inventories jumped by 6 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be the biggest surge in eight weeks if confirmed by the EIA today. Supplies at Cushing climbed for the first time in four weeks. BBG
• A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Tariffs/Trade

• USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ.
• US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters.
• On UK-US tariffs, "Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading", according to Times' Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week "Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about 'days or weeks'" "But in truth No 10 doesn't know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning".
• Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won't impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers.
• Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products.
• French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive

APAC stocks were mostly positive but with the major indices stuck within narrow parameters as participants awaited US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement scheduled later today. ASX 200 eked modest gains as strength in the real estate, tech and consumer discretionary sectors just about atoned for the losses in mining, resources and materials, while Building Approvals data from Australia printed better-than-feared. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and wiped out most of its early gains as Japanese exporters braced for incoming US tariffs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid tariff uncertainty with China among the countries anticipated to announce an immediate retaliation to Trump's incoming tariffs, while China also awaits details regarding the US review of the 'Phase One' deal.

Top Asian News

• Standard Chartered raised its China 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5%.
• China's Commerce Ministry says the anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy has been extended to July 5th (from April 5th).
• US President Trump will consider a final proposal for TikTok on Wednesday and his administration is finalising plans for potential investors that could include Blackstone (BX) and Oracle (ORCL), according to CBS News. It was separately reported that President Trump is expected to meet senior cabinet officials and the Vice President to discuss potential investors for TikTok.
• US Senate Committee reviewing Meta (META) alleged efforts to build censorship tools for China as part of an attempt to gain entry to Chinese markets, according to a letter seen by Reuters.
• Fast Retailing (9983 JT) reports March domestic UNIQLO sales +11.5% Y/Y.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.9%) opened lower, despite a mostly positive picture in APAC trade and as traders remain focused on the looming reciprocal tariff announcements on “Liberation Day”. Price action has really only been downwards today, with a more pronounced bout of pressure appearing mid-morning though this has since stabilised a touch. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, in-fitting with the risk tone. Healthcare is the clear underperformer today, but with no clear stock driving the losses; the pressure is seemingly in tandem with the downside seen across US peers in the prior session, and perhaps some fears regarding potential pharmaceutical tariffs.

Top European News

• ECB's Rehn says the ECB is not committing to any particular path; disinflation is on track, and growth outlook weakened, the bank will maintain complete freedom of action. Trade protectionism is a key risk to the economic outlook.
• ECB's President Lagarde says inflation is very close to the target but there is still some work to do.
• German banks' association said Germany's economy is expected to grow by 0.2% this year and 1.4% next year.

FX

• DXY is flat vs. peers as markets brace for US President Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement at 21:00BST/16:00EDT. Ahead of which, CNBC reported that Trump is looking at three main options which are, 1) blanket 20% tariffs, 2) a tiered system of three different rates and 3) country-by-country rates; an official noted blanket 20% tariffs was the least likely option. Thereafter, a WSJ article noted that the USTR was preparing a new tariff option for Trump of "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option". Note, ahead of the announcement, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick could provide some insight on the matter during an interview on Bloomberg TV at 13:30BST. DXY is currently tucked within Tuesday's 104.01-36 range.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD and holding just below the 1.08 mark as the Bloc braces for the fallout of the US "Liberation Day". As it stands, the EU retaliated to the Trump administration's steel and aluminium levies with countermeasure” on up to EUR 26bln worth of US goods. Commentary via ECB's Lagarde and Rehn have added little fresh for the Single-currency. Today's EZ docket is light in terms of data but heavy on speakers with the slate including ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel, Lane, Holzmann and Escriva.
• JPY is flat vs. the USD after USD/JPY topped out at the 150 mark. Fresh newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side as markets await details of the Trump tariff regime later today. USD/JPY remains caged within Tuesday's 148.97-150.14 bounds.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD and EUR with incremental macro drivers for the UK on the light side. Of course, the main focus for today's session will be the severity of the Trump administration's tariff plans. The Times' Swinford suggested that "any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading". Cable is currently holding above the 1.29 mark.
• Antipodeans have extended on Tuesday's upward momentum which was facilitated as risk sentiment improved stateside and with Australian buildings approval data showing a narrower-than-feared contraction. That being said, it is worth noting that the Trump tariff announcement carries a lot of risk for AUD and NZD given that China (both nations largest trading partner) is very much in the crosshairs of the US administration.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1793 vs exp. 7.2663 (Prev. 7.1775).

Fixed Income

• USTs are largely in a holding pattern overnight after coming under pressure in the US afternoon/evening on the more favourable tariff reports via CNBC, marked a 111-15 overnight low. More recently, modest upside occurred in the early European morning as the general tone deteriorated a touch. Ahead, markets will await trade updates from Commerce Secretary Lutnick at 08:30 EDT and then President Trump at 16:00 EDT. US data by way of ADP and Factory Orders is also due today, but ultimately may play second fiddle on "Liberation Day".
• Bunds are a touch firmer, the narrative is much the same as the above, though Bunds picked up slightly more than their US peer as the risk tone deteriorated in the early morning and have moved back into the green. Ahead a German 2035 Bund Auction and then a few ECB speakers are due - but focus will ultimately be on trade updates. Currently at the top-end of a 129.11-45 band, which is entirely within Tuesday’s 128.68-129.60 range.
• Gilts are in-fitting with the above though the bounce seen early doors, which took Bunds into the green as discussed, was only sufficient to cause Gilts to gap higher by five ticks and extend another two to a 92.15 peak. A high point which is shy of Tuesday’s 92.45 best. Tariffs dominate the narrative as we await Trump’s announcement. On the UK-US economic deal the Times’ Swinford reports that hopes of any last minute concessions for the UK are fading with no plans for the leaders to speak today.
• UK sells GBP 1.6bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Gilt : b/c 3.36x (prev. 3.52x) and real yield 1.268% (prev. 1.115%)

Commodities

• Softer trade across the crude complex amid the cautious risk sentiment heading into the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement by US President Trump and after the significant private inventory build. Continued expansion into Gaza by Israel's army, and punchy rhetoric via President Trump who believes Russian President Putin is stalling has failed to help push up prices. More recently, Axios reported that US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks - again failing to spur price action. Brent June trades in a USD 73.95-74.62/bbl parameter.
• Spot gold remains on a firmer footing after rebounding from the prior day's trough amid uncertainty ahead of the looming US reciprocal tariffs. Spot gold resides in a current USD 3,106.70-3,135.80/oz range.
• Copper futures eke mild gains but with the upside capped amid the mixed and cautious mood on 'Liberation Day'. Price action has been relatively contained for base metals thus far. 3M LME copper trades in a current USD 9,672.00-9,754.55/t range.
• US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +6.0mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.0mln (exp. -1.0mln), Gasoline -1.6mln (exp. -1.7mln), Cushing +2.2mln.
• China's NDRC is to increase retail gasoline prices by CNY 230/ton and diesel by CNY 220/ton, effective April 3rd.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US President Trump is reportedly seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks, while at the same time significantly boosting US forces in the Middle East in case the US opts for military strikes, according to Axios; no decisions made "A US official said Trump doesn't want to go to war with Iran but needs the military assets to establish deterrence in the negotiations — and to be prepared to act if negotiations fail and things escalate quickly."
• Israel's army launched heavy raids on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli Defence Minister said they are expanding the operation in Gaza to seize large areas that would be added to the security zones of Israel and announced a large-scale evacuation of the Gaza population from fighting areas.
• US Defence Secretary Hegseth ordered additional air assets to strengthen their Middle East military posture.
• US conducted three new airstrikes on Saada in northern Yemen, according to Houthi-affiliated media cited by Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Bipartisan group of 50 Senators introduced a new sanctions measure which includes 500% duties against countries that purchase Russian oil, gas and uranium if Moscow refuses to participate in the peace process in Ukraine.
• Russian Defence Ministry says Ukraine attacked Russian energy facilities twice during the past 24 hours, via Ifax.

Geopolitics: Other

• China's military conducted exercises in the middle and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait with exercises codenamed 'Strait Thunder 2025A', according to Xinhua. Furthermore, China's Eastern Theatre Command said it carried out long-range live fire shooting drills in waters of East China which involved precision strikes on simulated targets of key ports and energy facilities which achieved the desired effects.

US Event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Mar 28 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2%
• 8:15 am: Mar ADP Employment Change, est. 120k, prior 77k
• 10:00 am: Feb Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 1.7%
  • Feb F Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
  • Feb F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
  • Feb F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.3%
  • Feb F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.9%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The centre of the universe today will be the White House Rose Garden where we will finally hear about reciprocal tariffs. The announcements are due to take place at 4pm Eastern Time (9pm London), with the White House press secretary saying yesterday that the measures would be effective immediately. We clearly don’t know any of the details, including which countries will be targeted and at what rate, with reporting yesterday suggesting that a final decision was still to be made. The Washington Post reported that White House aides had proposed tariffs of around 20% on most imports. And despite speculation it might just affect 10-15 key trading partners, President Trump said over the weekend that “You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens”, which pointed towards a broader focus. Meanwhile, the WSJ reported last night that other options under consideration include a more targeted reciprocal plan as well as an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations. And, according to Bloomberg, a tiered tariff system option could see countries face levies of either 10% or 20% depending on their barriers on US goods. In related news, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that the tariffs announced today would be a cap and that countries would be able to bring them down. This hints at there being routes for negotiation in his eyes. A reminder that my AI summary of Bessent and Lutnick's recent podcast appearances can be found here. These were a fascinating insight into how this administration is thinking about the world.

Back to tariffs, and obviously, the prospect of broad-based tariffs would represent a huge shock to the global trading system, and would have some pretty seismic ramifications for the world economy. Last week, our US economists published a note (link here) where they ran through various possibilities. And significantly, they think that in a worst-case scenario where reciprocal tariffs include the entirety of each country’s VAT, that would see US GDP growth down 100-120bps this year relative to their current forecast of +2.3% (Q4/Q4), with core PCE inflation up 90-120bps. Meanwhile for the EU, our economists have estimated (link here) that a 20% tariff rate on all goods (on top of the 25% auto tariffs announced) would lead to a 0.3-0.6% shock for GDP.

The other big unknown from here is how other countries might retaliate, even though we have a pretty good sense that they’re likely to do so. After all, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said yesterday that “If necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and will use it.” Over in Canada, Prime Minister Carney said that “We will not disadvantage Canadian producers and Canadian workers relative to American workers”. Moreover, President Trump has already said that any retaliation could be met by further US tariffs, so a key downside risk from here is that this kicks off an escalatory spiral of higher tariffs.

Ahead of today’s announcement, fears about stagflation in financial markets continued to mount even if markets had a pretty positive day yesterday. The stagflation fears were exacerbated by the latest batch of US data, where the ISM manufacturing print fell back into contractionary territory with a 49.0 print (vs. 49.5 expected). Moreover, the new orders component fell to a 22-month low of 45.2, whilst the prices paid component surged to 69.4, which is the highest it’s been since June 2022. The weaker ISM release saw the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate (adjusting for trade in gold) fall to a new low of -1.4%, while the model’s estimate of real private domestic final sales, which are much less distorted by trade volatility, fell to a still positive but weak +0.4%.

The data is continuing to support the narrative of weaker growth and higher inflation, with market-based inflation expectations continuing to rise. The US 1yr inflation swap (+0.6bps) moved higher for a seventh session in a row to another two-year high of 3.25%, though it did retreat after trading +5.0bps intra-day. The reversal during the afternoon session may have reflected emergent reporting that more modest tariff options were still in play, which also helped gold prices (-0.17%) post a modest decline after touching an new record high of $3,149/oz intra-day. As a reminder, gold saw its strongest quarterly performance since 1986 in Q1. This was among the notable highlights from Henry's Q1 performance review (link here).
For equities, it was another topsy-turvy session, with the S&P 500 recovering from an intraday low of -0.95% to end the day up +0.38%. So a very similar move to Monday. The Magnificent 7 (+1.63%) were the main driver of the rebound, ending a run of 4 consecutive declines, with Tesla (+3.59%) leading the way. Outside of tech, it was a pretty neutral day, with the Dow Jones (-0.03%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.02%) little changed. Meanwhile in Europe, there were even stronger moves, with the STOXX 600 (+1.07%) and the DAX (+1.70%) posting their strongest performances in over two weeks.

Elsewhere, US Treasuries continued to rally as ongoing growth fears helped yields to grind lower. For instance, the 2yr yield (-0.2bps) inched down to 3.88%, its lowest level since October, whilst the 10yr yield (-3.7bps) fell back to 4.17%. The fact investors were fearful about growth was evident from the ongoing decline in real yields, with the 2yr real yield (-1.3bps) down to its lowest since August 2022, at 0.59%.

Over in Europe, sovereign bonds also rallied after the latest Euro Area inflation data was seen as paving the way for more ECB rate cuts. For instance, CPI fell back to +2.2% in March on the flash reading, in line with expectations. And in more dovish news, the core CPI reading fell to +2.4% (vs. +2.5% expected), which is the lowest it’s been since January 2022. So that helped yields to move lower across the continent, with those on 10yr bunds (-5.2bps), OATs (-5.3bps) and BTPs (-7.7bps) all falling.

Asian equity markets are pretty quiet ahead of today's big announcement. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+0.06%), CSI (+0.15%), Shanghai Composite (+0.23%), Nikkei (+0.15%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.10%) are all edging higher. The KOSPI (-0.62%) is bucking the trend but S&P 500 (-0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.14%) futures are also slightly lower.
Early morning data showed that South Korea’s inflation unexpectedly rose to +2.1% y/y in March (vs +1.9% market consensus) as against a +2.0% increase the previous month, thus complicating the Bank of Korea’s rate cut cycle.

Finally, we got a few other data releases yesterday, including the US JOLTS report for February. That showed job openings were down to 7.568m (vs. 7.658m expected), which meant the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.07, the lowest since September. Otherwise, the quits rate remained steady at 2.0%, as did the hires rate at 3.4%. Separately in the Euro Area, the February unemployment rate came in at 6.1% (vs. 6.2% expected), which is the lowest rate since the single currency’s formation. We also got the final manufacturing PMI for March, which was revised down a tenth from the flash reading to 48.6.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ADP’s report of private payrolls for March, and factory orders for February. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Schnabel, Escriva, Holzmann and Lane, along with the Fed’s Kugler.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 08:06

DNC, Schumer Sue Trump Over Order Targeting Illegal Immigrant Voting

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and two top U.S. lawmakers on March 31 sued President Donald Trump over a recent executive order that aims to enforce the law against illegal immigrant voting and election dates.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in Washington on March 13, 2025. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images

“The Executive Order seeks to impose radical changes on how Americans register to vote, cast a ballot, and participate in our democracy—all of which threaten to disenfranchise lawful voters and none of which is legal,” says the lawsuit, filed by Democratic Party attorney Marc Elias in federal court in Washington.

Trump’s March 25 order has multiple sections. Several deal with laws that bar foreigners from registering to vote or from voting in federal elections. Trump directed the independent Election Assistance Commission to require proof of U.S. citizenship in its mail voter registration form, ordered U.S. officials to work with the Department of Government Efficiency to review voter rolls to identify noncitizens who are already registered, and told the U.S. attorney general to prosecute individuals who have illegally registered or voted.

Another prong takes aim at how some states in recent years have begun counting mailed ballots that arrive after Election Day, which the order says contravenes federal law.

A third portion says the Election Assistance Commission shall stop providing federal funds to states that don’t comply with the laws on election dates and noncitizen voting and voter registration.

The U.S. Constitution’s election clause says that states can set election dates, although Congress can alter them.

“Outside of the Elections Clause, other provisions in the Constitution place certain requirements and limitations on the regulation of elections—but none allows the President to override the will of the States or Congress in this space,” the new suit states.

The legal challenge also says that the Election Assistance Commission is an independent agency over which the president, who appoints commissioners, has no control, and that federal law lets applicants who vote in federal elections attest to citizenship with a signature as opposed to requiring proof from documents such as a passport.

In addition to the DNC, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. Senate, and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, are plaintiffs in the suit.

The Democrats are asking the court to declare that the order violates the Constitution and federal law and block U.S. officials, such as the attorney general, from implementing it.

“The Democrats continue to show their disdain for the Constitution and it continues to show in their insane objections to the President’s commonsense executive actions to require proof of U.S. citizenship in an effort to protect the integrity of American elections,“ Harrison Fields, a White House spokesman, told The Epoch Times in an email. ”The Trump administration is standing up for free, fair, and honest elections and asking this basic question is essential to our Constitutional Republic.”

Ahead of the 2016 election, Elias helped compile a dossier against Trump. He was named in a different order by Trump that directed officials to take action against lawyers who are violating laws and regulations.

Earlier Monday, several organizations filed a separate suit in the same court over the election order, outlining similar arguments.

“The president’s executive order is an unlawful action that threatens to uproot our tried-and-tested election systems and silence potentially millions of Americans,“ Danielle Lang, senior director of voting rights at the Campaign Legal Center, which is representing the groups, said in a statement. ”It is simply not within the president’s authority to set election rules by executive decree, especially when they would restrict access to voting in this way.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 07:20

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 28, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 57 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 9 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Treasury yields continue to be volatile as economic uncertainty dominates markets. Most mortgage rates finished last week lower, with the 30-year fixed essentially unchanged at 6.70 percent. Last week’s level of purchase applications was its highest since the end of January, driven by a 3 percent increase in conventional purchases, while government purchase applications were down 2 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Overall purchase activity has shown year-over-year growth for more than two months as the inventory of existing homes for sale continues to increase, a positive development for the housing market despite the uncertain near-term outlook. Refinance applications were down almost 6 percent last week and remain very sensitive to rate movements, as most borrowers have mortgages with lower rates.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.70 percent from 6.71 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 9% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 26% from the lows in late October 2023 and is 5% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index declined and remains very low.

German Politicians Worry About Their Gold In US Vaults

For decades, the idea that Germany’s gold reserves - some of the largest in the world - might not be safe in the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve would have seemed like the stuff of conspiracy theories. But as the political landscape shifts in Washington - and questions have been raised as to what's actually in US vaults, some German lawmakers are beginning to wonder aloud: Is their gold still secure?

Germany holds the second-largest hoard of gold on the planet, surpassed only by the United States itself. Roughly 37 percent of that treasure - some 1,236 metric tons, currently valued at around €113 billion - supposedly lies deep beneath the streets of Manhattan, stored with America’s central bank. For decades, the arrangement was seen as a prudent hedge, offering Germany immediate access to dollar liquidity in the event of a crisis.

Now, some in Berlin are rethinking that assumption.

"Of course, the question now arises again," Marco Wanderwitz, an outgoing lawmaker from the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), told the German tabloid Bild (owned by POLITICO parent company Axel Springer) last week. Wanderwitz has long harbored doubts about the wisdom of keeping such a significant portion of the country’s wealth abroad. In 2012, he made an unsuccessful push to personally inspect the gold, urging the Bundesbank to act more transparently - or bring the bullion home.

Fellow CDU member Markus Ferber, a member of the European Parliament, echoed those sentiments, calling for more rigorous oversight. “Official representatives of the Bundesbank must personally count the bars and document their results,” Ferber told the outlet.

These calls come at a time of deepening skepticism toward the institutions that once underpinned Germany’s postwar confidence. The recent decision to discard the so-called “debt brake,” a long-sacrosanct cap on public borrowing, signaled a willingness to rethink long-standing fiscal orthodoxy. The logic behind storing Germany’s gold in New York, once assumed to be self-evident, is now coming under similar scrutiny.

Adding to the speculation is Elon Musk and DOGE, who have questioned the authenticity of stated U.S. gold holdings - recently calling for a formal audit of America’s reserves.

For the Deutsche Bundesbank, which oversees the management of Germany’s reserves, any suggestion of instability is unwelcome. The central bank has maintained a quiet and resolute stance, rebuffing insinuations of risk.

“We have a trustworthy and reliable partner in the Fed in New York for the storage of our gold holdings,” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said at a press conference in February, a line the bank reiterated when asked for comment on Friday. “It does not keep me awake at night. I have complete confidence in our colleagues at the American central bank.”

Famous last words...

In 2013, amid a populist outcry and growing eurozone instability, the 'completely confident' Bundesbank repatriated hundreds of tons of gold previously held in Paris - a move that was seen at the time as a symbolic reassertion of sovereignty. The bank argued that, with France and Germany sharing the euro, the strategic rationale for keeping reserves in Paris had faded.

Now, more than half of Germany’s gold sits safely in Frankfurt. Thirteen percent is held in London. But it is the tranche in New York - once a monument to transatlantic trust - that is drawing the most anxious of glances.

*  *  *

One question... GOT GOLD?

Click pic, buy ZeroHedge gold bars, puzzle future historians... Only 40 left in stock! These have been flying. Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:45

Russia Halts Large Chunk Of Kazakhstan's Oil Export Capacity

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Russia has ordered shut two of the three moorings of the main oil export terminal on the Black Sea handling Kazakhstan’s oil exports, which could seriously disrupt Kazakh crude shipments if the suspension lasts more than a few days.

Following snap safety inspections by Russia’s Federal Agency for Transport Supervision, prompted by the Kerch Strait oil spill in December 2024, Russia ordered on Monday that the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings of the terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) be shut immediately, CPC said in a statement.

The consortium operates the pipeline from the Caspian coast in northwest Kazakhstan to the Novorossiysk port on Russia’s Black Sea coast. The port handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports from giant oilfields in Kazakhstan operated by international oil firms, including U.S. supermajor Chevron.

Affiliates of Chevron and ExxonMobil are also minority shareholders in CPC, whose biggest shareholder is the Russian Federation with a 24% stake.

CPC complied with the order for a temporary ban of operations at the SPM-1 and SPM-2 moorings and took them out of service “until the identified deficiencies have been addressed.”

Until then, all transshipment operations at the CPC Marine Terminal will be delivered using the SPM-3 mooring commissioned in 2014, the consortium said.

The suspension of part of the export capacity could more than halve the crude oil exports of Kazakhstan if it drags on for more than a week, trading sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

The potential disruption to Kazakhstan’s oil exports comes as the country part of the OPEC+ pact saw its crude production hit a record high in March despite continued pledges to start complying with its OPEC+ quota that it has been exceeding for years.

Kazakhstan appears to find it hard to convince Chevron and the other supermajors operating in the country to limit production now after years of investing billions of U.S. dollars in oilfield expansions.

Amid tensions with OPEC+ and the oil majors, Kazakhstan said last month that energy minister Almassadam Satkaliyev would step down from the role and lead a newly minted atomic energy agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 05:00

Which AI Chatbots Collect The Most Data About You?

The harbinger of the AI revolution, ChatGPT, remains the most popular AI tool on the market, with more than 200 million weekly active users.

But amongst all its competitors, which AI chatbots are collecting the most user data? And why does that matter?

Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualizes data from Surfshark which identified the most popular AI chatbots and analyzed their privacy details on the Apple App Store.

Their findings are as of February 18th, 2025.

Gemini, the Data Collection King

At first place, Google’s Gemini (released March, 2023) collects 22 different data points across 10 categories, from its users.

Data collected ranges from general diagnostics (that all bots in this study collect) to access to contacts (that no other bot identified collects).

Note: The Number of data points collected in each category vary per bot, leading to different totals.

xAI’s Grok (released November, 2023) collects the least unique data points (7).

China’s DeepSeek (released Jan 2025), sits comfortably in the middle of the pack at 11 points.

The kind of data collected by each of these AI tools varies. All of them collected general diagnostics information. However, only Gemini and Perplexity look at purchases.

And then, nearly all but Perplexity.ai and Grok collect user content.

User content is the kind of information that is usually linked to third party data and then sold to advertisers for targeted ads on the platform.

The general rule of thumb when it comes to data privacy is true for AI chatbots also. After all, information is stored on their servers, and those can be breached.

Want to stay up to date on the AI revolution? Check out: Ranked: Jobs Where AI is Most Used for quick insights into the shifting workplace.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 04:15

US Treasury Targets Hezbollah's Iran-Backed Aid Network

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Individuals and entities helping to finance the Hezbollah terrorist group were sanctioned by the Department of the Treasury on March 28.

Ambulances transport the coffins of Hezbollah fighters and civilians killed in the recent war with Israel, during their funeral procession in the southern border village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon, on March 9, 2025. Rabih Daher/AFP via Getty Images

The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) “is designating five individuals and three associated companies involved in a Lebanon-based sanctions evasion network supporting the Hizballah finance team,” the agency said in a March 28 statement.

Hezbollah, also known as Hizballah, is an Iran-backed terrorist group based in Lebanon. Following the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in October 2023, Hezbollah began firing thousands of rockets and mortars into Israel.

According to the Treasury Department, “the Hizballah finance team uses front companies to generate millions of dollars in revenue for Hizballah and support the group’s terrorist activities.”

The team manages several commercial projects and oil smuggling networks to generate revenue, which is eventually transferred to Hezbollah, according to the Treasury. This is typically done in conjunction with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF).

The individuals and companies that OFAC has sanctioned facilitate and conceal oil sales for IRGC-QF and offer the terrorist group access to formal financial systems.

For instance, one of the sanctioned companies is Ravee SARL, a Lebanese business “that aims to generate profits for Hizballah from trade deals related to veterinary products,” the Treasury said.

One sanctioned individual, Mahasin Mahmud Murtada, is a “registered owner of several companies associated with Hizballah’s commercial investments,” it said.

With the new sanctions, all property of the designated individuals and companies that is located in the United States is “blocked and must be reported to OFAC,” the agency said. U.S. citizens are prohibited from engaging in any transactions involving the sanctioned individuals.

“Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons. OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations,” the agency stated.

Acting Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Bradley T. Smith said OFAC’s latest actions aim to “expose and disrupt the schemes that fund Hizballah’s terrorist violence against the Lebanese people and their neighbors.”

“These evasion networks strengthen Iran and its proxy Hizballah and undermine the courageous efforts of the Lebanese people to build a Lebanon for all its citizens,” he said.

Disrupting Terrorist Financing

The U.S. government previously imposed sanctions against entities for assisting Hezbollah.

In 2021, the Treasury announced sanctions on multiple Chinese nationals and entities for financing the terrorist group.

Many of the companies were based in Hong Kong and were directly or indirectly owned or controlled by Morteza Minaye Hashemi, an Iranian businessman living in China who was on the United States’ sanctions list and was accused of funding IRGC-QF.

Hashemi laundered tens of millions of dollars through foreign exchange and gold sales, transferring the money to IRGC-QF and Hezbollah, the department said at the time.

Last year, a Lebanese national pleaded guilty to circumventing U.S. sanctions to finance Hezbollah.

The individual was accused of coercing an individual to liquidate real estate assets in Michigan and transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars to Lebanon without the necessary licenses.

Israel is also targeting Hezbollah’s financial channels to counter the terrorist group amid its conflict with Hamas.

In October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) hit branches of the U.S.-sanctioned Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association in Beirut via multiple strikes.

That entity helped Hezbollah store billions of dollars in funds for its terror operations, according to the IDF. Hezbollah reportedly used the organization to buy armaments and weapon storage facilities, pay salaries of its members, and conduct terror activities.

Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified recently when the Jewish state’s military conducted an air strike in Beirut on March 28. This was the first attack on Lebanon’s capital city after Israel and the terrorist group agreed to a cease-fire in November.

The strike targeted a Hezbollah drone storage site, the military said, adding that the operation was carried out after rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon earlier in the morning “in blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 03:30

Top German Politicians Are Calling For Resumption Of Russian Gas

In Europe, the lure of a return to cheap energy is ever-present, and that conversation is becoming easier as the Trump administration in Washington pushes hard for ceasefire negotiations with Moscow.

Senior German politicians are already calling for a resumption of ties with Russia. For example Michael Kretschmer, a senior member of Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democrats, is now arguing that EU sanctions on Russia are "completely out of date" as they increasingly openly contradict "what the Americans are doing."

The CDU’s Michael Kretschmer, via dpa

Financial Times in a fresh report quoted Kretschmer's words to the German press agency DPA as follows: "When you realize that you’re weakening yourself more than your opponent, then you have to think about whether all of this is right."

The same publication has observed the expected immediate backlash to the statements as follows:

Kretschmer, who is also a long-standing opponent of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, is the latest in a string of figures from both Merz’s centre-right CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats to have gone public in recent weeks with calls to resume economic or energy ties with Russia.

That has created a problem for Merz — who is all but certain to be Germany’s next chancellor — as well as for his likely coalition partners in the SPD at a time when he is trying to cast himself as a strong partner for Ukraine and for Europe. Germany’s Green party, which is strongly pro-Kyiv, called on Sunday for Merz to clamp down on “friends of Putin” in his party. 

But Merz hasn't himself actively tried to silence this growing desire in some political circles for rapprochement with Russia.

But Bloomberg reported Monday, "The co-head of Germany’s Social Democrats party and frontrunner to become the next finance minister Lars Klingbeil dismissed swirling speculation over reviving pipeline gas deliveries from Russia after a potential peace deal for Ukraine."

And as we highlighted, TotalEnergies’ chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said last week:

“I would not be surprised if two out of the four (came) back to stream, not four out of the four,” Patrick Pouyanne said at an industry event in Germany’s capital city, Berlin, as carried by Reuters.

“There is no way to be competitive against Russian gas with LNG coming from wherever it is,” the executive added.

Meanwhile, both Hungary and Slovakia not only continue bypassing Ukraine for imports of Russian gas - after Ukraine broke from the transit of Russian gas on January 1st - but are actually boosting these supplies.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced on Tuesday that the Veľké Zlievce/Balassagyarmat interconnection border point from Hungary to Slovakia has been brought to full capacity due to the stoppage through Ukraine.

Source: EIA

"We managed to solve the problem of natural gas supplies to Slovakia and Hungary, despite the fact that Ukraine created very serious difficulties for us. To ensure reliable gas supplies to Slovakia via Hungary even with the cessation of its transit through Ukraine, we had to increase the capacity of the connecting gas pipeline between our countries," the FM told a press briefing.

"Today, the gas pipeline between Hungary and Slovakia is operating at increased capacity. We have now increased the capacity of this pipeline by 900 million cubic meters per year. Until now, 2.6 billion cubic meters were transported between the two countries per year. Starting today, this volume will increase to 3.5 billion cubic meters," Szijjarto noted.

He added that "compared to last year's record volume, the volume of natural gas transported through Hungary to Slovakia has increased by 50% in the first three months of this year."

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:45

Turkey Moves To Take Control Of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria

Via Middle East Eye

Turkey has begun efforts to take control of Syria's Tiyas air base, also known as T4, and is preparing to deploy air defence systems there, sources familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye. Construction plans for the site are also reportedly under way.

Ankara and Damascus have been negotiating a defense pact since December, following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. The agreement would see Turkey provide air cover and military protection for Syria’s new government, which currently lacks a functioning military.

Sources say Turkey intends to deploy air defence systems like the Hisar (pictured) at T4 air base in Syria (handout).

Although Turkish officials had previously downplayed the possibility of a military presence in Syria, describing such plans as premature, negotiations have quietly continued.

While Israel views a Turkish military presence in Syria as a potential threat, Ankara aims to stabilize the country by leveraging its military capabilities and filling the power vacuum left by the withdrawal of Russia and Iran.

Turkey also intends to intensify its fight against the Islamic State (IS) group, a key condition for the United States to consider withdrawing from the region.

A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. "A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base," the source said.

"Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities."

The source added that the base would help Turkey establish aerial control across the region and support its efforts to combat IS, which still has cells operating in the Syrian desert. 

Ankara eventually aims to establish a layered air defense system in and around the base, which would have short-, medium- and long-range air defense capabilities against a variety of threats, from jets to drones to missiles. 

A second source noted that the presence of Turkish air defense systems and drones would likely deter Israel from launching air strikes in the area. The Turkish defense ministry declined to comment. 

Unnerving Israel

Israel has regularly targeted Syrian military installations since Assad's government collapsed in December, with a recent surge in operations around T4. Last week, the Israeli air force struck T4 and the Palmyra air base, targeting runways and strategic assets.

An Israeli security source told the media on Monday that any Turkish air base in Syria would undermine Israel’s freedom of operation. "This is a potential threat that we oppose," the source said.

Map via BBC

Tensions between Turkey and Israel have escalated since the start of Israel's war on Gaza in 2023, ending a brief period of reconciliation between the two countries. The collapse of the Assad government and Turkey’s emergence as a dominant power in Syria have further alarmed Israel, which now sees Ankara as a potentially greater threat in the region than Iran.

"We targeted the T4 military base recently to send a message: we will not allow any threat to our operational freedom in the air," the Israeli security source told the Jerusalem Post.

The first MEE source also revealed that Ankara is considering the temporary deployment of S-400 air defence systems to T4 or Palmyra to secure the airspace during reconstruction efforts. However, no final decision has been made and Russia would need to give its approval.

Meanwhile, Ankara and Washington have been in talks about lifting the sanctions imposed on Turkey over its purchase of the Russian-made S-400 system, which led to Turkey's removal from the F-35 fighter jet program in 2019.

Turkey is not building a military presence in Syria to fight ISIS, that’s a lie. They helped bring them over. Last time the two were neighbors, they were saluting each other. https://t.co/CZ593HRmqT

— Bassem (@BBassem7) April 1, 2025

In a phone call last month, US President Donald Trump and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed possible ways for Turkey to rejoin the program. Under US law, Turkey must relinquish possession of the S-400 system to be readmitted.

Turkish officials have proposed deactivating the system by disassembling and storing it, or potentially relocating it to a Turkish-controlled base outside of Turkey. However, Israel strongly opposes any move that would allow Ankara access to the F-35, arguing it would erode Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 02:00

USAID And The Architecture Of Perception

Authored by Josh Stylman via The Brownstone Institute,

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has long portrayed itself as America’s humanitarian aid organization, delivering assistance to developing nations. With an annual budget of nearly $40 billion and operations in over 100 countries, it represents one of the largest foreign aid institutions in the world. But recent disclosures reveal its true nature as something far more systematic: an architect of global consciousness.

Consider: Reuters, one of the world’s most trusted news sources, received USAID funding for ‘Large Scale Social Deception’ and ‘Social Engineering Defence.’ While there’s debate about the exact scope of these programs, the implications are staggering: a division of one of the world’s most relied-upon sources for objective reporting was paid by a US government agency for systemic reality construction. This funding goes beyond traditional media support, representing a deliberate infrastructure for discourse framing that fundamentally challenges the concept of ‘objective’ reporting.

Source: USASpending.gov database

But it goes deeper. In what reads like a Michael Crichton plot come to life, the recent USAID revelations show a staggering reach of narrative control. Take Internews Network, a USAID-financed NGO that has pushed nearly half a billion dollars ($472.6m) through a secretive network, ‘working with’ 4,291 media outlets. In just one year, they produced 4,799 hours of broadcasts reaching up to 778 million people and ‘trained’ over 9,000 journalists. This isn’t just funding – it’s a systematic infrastructure of consciousness manipulation.

The revelations show USAID funding both the Wuhan Lab’s gain-of-function research and the media outlets that would shape the story around what emerged from it. Backing organizations that would fabricate impeachment evidence. Funding both the election systems that facilitate outcomes and the fact-checkers that determine which discussions about those outcomes are permitted. But these disclosures point to something far more significant than mere corruption.

These revelations didn’t emerge from nowhere – they come from government grant disclosures, FOIA requests, and official records that aren’t even hidden, just ignored. As my old friend Mark Schiffer noted the other day, ‘The most important truths today cannot be debated – they must be felt as totalities.’ The pattern, once seen, cannot be unseen. Some may question DOGE’s methods or the rapid pace of these disclosures, and those constitutional concerns deserve serious discussion. But that’s a separate conversation from what these documents reveal. The revelations themselves – documented in official records and grant disclosures – are undeniable and should shock anyone who values truth. The means of exposure matter far less than what’s being exposed: one of the largest narrative control operations in history.

No domain is untouched – markets, tech, culture, health, and obviously, media – and you’ll find the same design. Intelligence agencies are deeply embedded in each domain because shaping how we perceive reality is more powerful than controlling reality itself

Just as fiat currency replaced real value with declared value, we now see the same pattern everywhere: fiat science replaces inquiry with predetermined conclusions, fiat culture replaces organic development with curated influence, fiat history replaces lived experience with manufactured narratives. We live in an era of fiat everything – where reality itself is declared, not discovered. And just as they create artificial scarcity in monetary systems, they manufacture false choices everywhere else – presenting us with artificial binaries that obscure the true complexity of our world.

As Schiffer wrote elsewhere, reality no longer requires consensus, only coherence. But there’s a crucial distinction: real coherence emerges naturally across multiple domains, reflecting deeper truths that cannot be fabricated. The coherence imposed by perception management isn’t truth – it’s a controlled discourse engineered for consistency, not discovery. The USAID receipts now provide concrete evidence of how this manufactured coherence is built: a scripted reality where the appearance of logic is more important than actual substance.

This isn’t just pattern matching – it’s pattern prediction. Just as algorithms learn to recognize and anticipate behavioral patterns, those who understand this system’s architecture can see its next moves before they’re made. The question isn’t whether something is “true” or “false” – it’s understanding how information flows shape consciousness itself.

To understand how deep this goes, let’s examine their methodology. As Dr. Sherri Tenpenny and others have meticulously documented through FOIA requests and government grant disclosures, the pattern emerges through two primary vectors of control:

Information Control:

• $34 million to Politico (which as Tenpenny notes, struggled to make payroll without this funding)
• Extensive payments to the New York Times
• Direct funding to BBC Media Action
• $4.5 million to Kazakhstan to combat “disinformation”

Health and Development:

• $84 million to Clinton Foundation health initiatives
• $100 million for AIDS treatment in Ukraine
• Funding for contraceptive programs in developing nations

Cultural Programming:

• $20 million to Sesame Street in Iraq
• $68 million to the World Economic Forum
• $2 million for sex changes and LGBT activism in Guatemala
• Global cultural initiatives (millions spread across LGBTQ programs in Serbia, DEI projects in Ireland, transgender arts in Colombia and Peru, and tourism promotion in Egypt)

What emerges is not just a list of expenditures, but a blueprint for global reality architecture: From Kazakhstan to Ireland, from Serbia to Peru, from Vietnam to Egypt – there isn’t a corner of the world untouched by this system. This isn’t merely a distribution of resources, but a strategic infrastructure of global influence. Each allocation – whether to media outlets, health initiatives, or cultural programs – represents a carefully placed node in a network designed to shape perception across multiple domains. First, control the flow of information through media funding. Then, establish legitimacy through health and development programs. Finally, reshape social structures through cultural programming. The end goal isn’t just to influence what people think, but to determine the boundaries of what can be thought – and to do so on a planetary scale.

For those who’ve been studying the architecture of censorship, like Mike Benz has been documenting for years, none of this comes as a surprise. It’s perfect symmetry: we knew about the censorship. Now we’re seeing the receipts. One hand feeds them talking points, the other hand feeds them our taxpayer dollars. This isn’t speculation; it’s documented fact. Even Wikipedia’s own funding database contains over 45,000 reports tied to USAID – many detailing corruption, media influence, and financial manipulation. The evidence has always been there, but it was ignored, dismissed, or buried under the very fact-checking apparatus USAID funds. These weren’t crackpot theories; they were warnings. And now, we finally have the receipts.

And it doesn’t stop at controlling information. USAID isn’t just shaping media portrayals – it’s funding the systems that enforce them. Last week, Benz broke a bombshell: USAID gives twice as much money ($27 million) to the fiscal sponsor of the group controlling Soros-funded prosecutors than Soros himself gives ($14 million). This isn’t about one billionaire’s influence – it’s about state-backed enforcement of scripted accounts. The same network that dictates what you can think is dictating who prosecutes crime, what laws are enforced, and who faces consequences.

Source: Wikileaks

USAID’s influence isn’t just about funding media control—it extends to direct political interference. It didn’t just send aid to Brazil – it funded censorship, backed left-wing activists, and helped rig the 2022 election against Bolsonaro.

Former State Department official Benz revealed that the agency waged a “holy war on censorship,” systematically suppressing Bolsonaro supporters online while bolstering opposition voices. Millions flowed to NGOs pushing leftist framing, including the Felipe Neto Institute, which received US funding while Bolsonaro’s allies were deplatformed. USAID also bankrolled Amazon-based activist groups, financed media campaigns designed to manipulate public opinion, and funneled money into Brazilian organizations that pushed for stricter internet regulations.

This wasn’t aid – it was election interference disguised as democracy promotion. USAID used American tax dollars to decide Brazil’s future, and it likely deployed similar tactics in many other countries – all under the guise of humanitarian assistance.

And it’s not just abroad. While USAID’s defenders claim it’s a tool for charity and development in poor nations, the evidence suggests something much more insidious. It’s a $40 billion driver of regime change overseas – and now, evidence points to its involvement in regime change efforts at home. Alongside the CIA, USAID appears to have played a role in the 2019 impeachment of Trump – an illegal effort to overturn a US election using the same tools of perception sculpting and political engineering it deploys abroad.

Left vs right, vaxxed vs unvaxxed, Russia vs Ukraine, believer vs skeptic (on any topic) – these false dichotomies serve to fragment our understanding while reality itself is far more nuanced and multidimensional. Each manufactured crisis spawns not just reactions, but reactions to those reactions, creating endless layers of derivative meaning built on artificial foundations.

The real power isn’t in manufacturing individual facts, but in creating systems where false facts become self-reinforcing. When a fact-checker cites another fact-checker who cites a “trusted source” that’s funded by the same entities funding the fact-checkers, the pattern becomes clear. The truth isn’t in any individual claim – it’s in recognizing how the claims work together to create a closed system of artificial reality.

Take the vaccine debate for example: The pattern manifests before the explanation – people passionately debate efficacy without realizing the entire framework was constructed. First, they fund the research. Then they fund the media to shape the narrative. Even skeptics often fall into their trap, arguing about effectiveness rates while accepting their basic premise. The moment you debate ‘vaccine efficacy,’ you’ve already lost – you’re using their framework to discuss what is, in reality, an experimental gene therapy. By accepting their terminology, their metrics, their framing of the discussion itself, you’re playing into their constructed reality. Each layer of control is designed not just to influence opinions, but to preemptively structure how those opinions can be formed.

Like learning to spot a staged photo or hearing a false note in music, developing a reliable bullshit detector requires pattern recognition. Once you start seeing how narratives are constructed – how language is weaponized, how frameworks are built – it changes the lens with which you view the whole world. The same intelligence agencies embedding themselves in every domain that shapes our understanding aren’t just controlling information flow – they’re programming how we process that information itself.

The recursive theater plays out in real time. When USAID announced funding cuts, BBC News rushed to amplify humanitarian concerns with dramatic headlines about HIV patients and endangered lives. What they didn’t mention in their reporting? USAID is their top funder, bankrolling BBC Media Action with millions in direct payments. Watch how the system protects itself: the largest recipient of USAID media funding creates emotional propaganda about USAID’s importance while obfuscating their financial relationship in their reporting.

Source: Lindsay Penny (left), BBC website (right)

This institutional self-defense illustrates a crucial pattern: organizations funded for reality construction protect themselves through layers of misdirection. When presented with evidence, the fact-checking apparatus funded by these same systems springs into action. They’ll tell you that these payments were for standard “subscriptions,” that programs promoting gender ideology are really just about “equality and rights.” But when USAID awards $2 million to Asociación Lambda in Guatemala for “gender-affirming health care” – which can include surgeries, hormone therapy, and counseling – those same defenders conveniently omit the details, blurring the line between advocacy and direct intervention. The very organizations funded for social architecture are the ones telling you there is no social architecture. It’s akin to asking the arsonist to investigate the fire.

Like characters in a grand production, I watch old friends still trusting in institutions like the New York Times. Even this exposition becomes a potential node in the system – the very act of revealing the mechanics of control might itself be anticipated, another layer of the recursive theater. In my earlier work on technocracy, I explored how our digital world has evolved far beyond Truman Burbank’s physical dome. His world had visible walls, cameras, and scripted encounters – a constructed reality he could theoretically escape by reaching its edges. Our prison is more sophisticated: no walls, no visible limits, just algorithmic containment that shapes thought itself. Truman only had to sail far enough to find the truth. But how do you sail beyond the boundaries of perception when the ocean itself is programmed?

Sure, USAID has done some good work – but so did Al Capone with his soup kitchens. Just as the infamous gangster’s charity work made him untouchable in his community, USAID’s aid programs create a veneer of benevolence that makes questioning their larger agenda politically impossible. Philanthropic window-dressing has long been a tool for power players to shield themselves from scrutiny. Consider Jimmy Savile: a celebrated philanthropist whose charity work granted him access to hospitals and vulnerable children while he committed unspeakable crimes in plain sight. His carefully cultivated image made him beyond reproach for decades, just as institutional benevolence now serves as a protective layer for global influence operations. The true function of organizations like USAID isn’t just aid – it’s social architecture, mind shaping, and the laundering of taxpayer dollars through an intricate web of NGOs and foundations.

This layered deception is self-reinforcing – each level of manufactured reality is protected by another level of institutional authority. These institutions don’t just dictate stories; they shape the infrastructure through which narratives are disseminated. For what it’s worth, I believe most tools themselves are neutral. The same digital systems that enable mass surveillance could empower individual sovereignty. The same networks that centralize control could facilitate decentralized cooperation. The question isn’t the technology itself, but whether it’s deployed to concentrate or distribute power.

This understanding didn’t come from nowhere. Those who first sensed this artificiality were dismissed as conspiracy theorists. We noticed the coordination across outlets, the strange synchronicity of messaging, the way certain stories were amplified while others disappeared. Now we have the sales receipts showing exactly how that manipulation was funded and orchestrated.

I know this journey of discovery intimately. When I started understanding the dangers of mRNA technology, I went all in. I connected with the incredibly talented filmmaker Jennifer Sharp and helped with Anecdotals, her film about vaccine injuries. I was ready to tether my whole identity to this cause. But then I started zooming out. I began seeing how Covid might have been a financial crime designed to usher in central bank digital currency. The deeper I looked, the more I realized these weren’t isolated deceptions – it was part of a larger system of control. The very fabric of what I thought was real began to dissolve.

What disturbed me most was seeing how deeply programming relies on mimicry. Humans are imitative creatures by nature – it’s how we learn, how we build culture. But this natural tendency has been weaponized. I’d present friends with peer-reviewed studies, documented evidence, historical connections – only to watch them respond with verbatim talking points from corporate media. It wasn’t that they disagreed – it was that they weren’t even processing the information. They were pattern-matching against pre-approved chronicles, outsourcing their thinking to “trusted experts” who were themselves caught in the same web of manufactured perception. I realized then: none of us knows anything for certain – we’re all just mimicking what we’ve been programmed to believe is authoritative knowledge.

The challenge isn’t just seeing through any single deception – it’s understanding how these systems work together in complex, non-linear ways. When we fixate on individual threads, we miss the larger pattern. Like pulling a thread on a sweater and watching it unravel, eventually you realize there was no sweater in the first place – just an intricately woven illusion. Just as a hologram contains the whole image in each fragment, every piece of this system reflects the larger blueprint for reality construction.

Consider the $34 million to Politico – this isn’t just a funding stream, but a holographic reveal of the entire system. It’s not merely that Politico received money; it’s that this single transaction contains the entire blueprint of perception management. The payment itself is a microcosm: struggling media outlet, government funding, narrative control – each element reflects the whole. This recursive system protects itself through layers of self-validation. When critics point out media bias, fact-checkers funded by the same system declare it ‘debunked.’ When researchers question official accounts, journals funded by the same interests reject their work. Even the language of resistance – ‘speaking truth to power,’ ‘fighting disinformation,’ ‘protecting democracy’ – has been co-opted and weaponized by the very system it was meant to challenge.

The Covid story epitomizes this systemic manipulation. What began as a public health crisis transformed into a global experiment in narrative control – demonstrating how rapidly populations could be reshaped through coordinated messaging, institutional authority, and weaponized fear. The pandemic wasn’t just about a virus; it was a proof of concept for how comprehensively human cognition could be engineered – a single node revealing the true scope and ambition of discourse manipulation.

Think about the cycle: American taxpayers unknowingly funded the crisis itself – then paid again to be deceived about it. They paid for the development of gain-of-function research, then paid again for the messaging that would convince them to accept masks, lockdowns, and experimental interventions. The system is so confident in its psychological control that it doesn’t even bother hiding the evidence anymore.

As I’ve documented in my Engineering Reality series, this framework for consciousness management runs far deeper than most can imagine. USAID’s revelations aren’t isolated incidents – they’re glimpses into a vast system of social design that has been in operation for decades. When the same agency funding your fact-checkers is openly paying for ‘social deception,’ when your trusted news sources are receiving direct payments for ‘social architecture,’ the very framework of what we consider ‘real’ begins to crumble.

We’re not just watching events unfold – we’re watching reactions to artificial events, then reactions to those reactions, creating an infinite regression of derivative meaning. People form passionate positions about issues that were constructed, then others define themselves in opposition to those positions. Each layer of reaction fuels the next phase of steered consensus. What we’re witnessing isn’t just the spread of manufactured realities, but the architecture of cultural and geopolitical trends themselves. Artificial trends spawn authentic reactions, which generate counter-reactions, until we’ve built entire societies responding to carefully orchestrated theater. The social engineers aren’t just steering individual beliefs – they’re reshaping the very foundations of how humans make sense of the world.

These revelations are just the tip of the iceberg. Anyone paying attention to the depth and depravity of the corruption knows that this is only the beginning. As more information emerges, the illusion of neutrality, of benevolence, of institutions acting in the public interest, will crumble. No one who truly engages with this information is walking away with renewed faith in the system. The shift is only happening in one direction – some faster than others, but none in reverse. The real question is: what happens when a critical mass reaches the point where their foundational understanding of the world collapses? When they realize that the records shaping their perception were never organic, but manufactured? Some will refuse to look, choosing comfort over confrontation. But for those willing to face it, this is not just about corruption – it’s about the very nature of the reality they thought they inhabited.

The implications are staggering not just for individual awareness, but for our very ability to function as a republic. How can citizens make informed decisions when reality itself has been splintered into competing manufactured tales? When people discover that their most deeply held beliefs were shaped, that their passionate causes were scripted, that even their cultural interests and tastes were curated, that their opposition to certain systems was anticipated and designed – what remains of authentic human experience?

What’s coming will force a choice: either retreat into comfortable denial, dismissing mounting evidence as “right-wing conspiracy theories,” or face the shattering realization that the world we thought we inhabited never actually existed. My research over the past few years points to far more nefarious activities yet to be revealed – operations so heinous that many will simply refuse to process them.

As I wrote about in “The Second Matrix,” there’s always the risk of falling into another layer of controlled awakening. But the greater risk lies in thinking too small, in anchoring ourselves to any single thread of understanding. The USAID revelations aren’t just about exposing one agency’s role in shaping reality – they’re about recognizing how our very thought patterns have been colonized by recursive layers of artificial reality.

This is the true crisis of our time: not just the manipulation of reality, but the fragmentation of human consciousness itself. When people grasp that their beliefs, causes, and even their resistance were shaped within this system, they are forced to confront the deeper question: What does it mean to reclaim one’s own mind?

But here’s what they don’t want you to realize: seeing through these systems is profoundly liberating. When you understand how reality is constructed, you’re no longer bound by its artificial constraints. This isn’t just about exposing deception – it’s about freeing consciousness itself from manufactured limitations.

The jig may be up on USAID’s reality architecture operation. But the deeper challenge lies in reconstructing meaning in a world where the very fabric of reality has been woven from artificial threads. The choice we face isn’t just between comfortable illusion and uncomfortable truth. The old system demanded validation before belief. The new reality requires something else entirely: the ability to recognize patterns before they’re officially confirmed, to feel coherence across multiple domains, to step outside the crafted game completely. This isn’t about choosing sides in their manufactured binaries – it’s about seeing the pattern architecture itself.

What does this liberation look like in practice? It’s catching the pattern of a manufactured crisis before it’s fully deployed. It’s recognizing how seemingly unrelated events – a banking collapse, a health emergency, a social movement – are actually nodes in the same network of control. It’s understanding that true sovereignty isn’t about having all the answers, but about developing the capacity to sense the web of deception before it solidifies into apparent reality. Because the ultimate power isn’t in knowing every answer – it’s in realizing when the question itself has been designed to trap you inside the manufactured paradigm.

As we develop this pattern recognition capacity – this ability to see through algorithmic manipulation – what it means to be human is itself evolving. As these systems of ideological infrastructure crumble, our task isn’t just to preserve individual awakening but to protect and nurture the most conscious elements of humanity. The ultimate liberation isn’t just seeing through the deception – it’s maintaining our essential humanity in a world of tightly controlled perception.

As these systems of reality sculpting crumble, we have an unprecedented opportunity to rediscover what’s real – not through their manufactured frameworks, but through our own direct experience of truth. What’s authentic isn’t always what’s organic – in a mediated world, authenticity means conscious choice rather than unconscious reaction. It means understanding how our minds are shaped while maintaining our capacity for genuine connection, creative expression, and direct experience. The most human elements – love, creativity, intuition, genuine discovery – become more precious precisely because they defy algorithmic control. These are the last frontiers of human freedom—the unpredictable, unquantifiable forces that cannot be reduced to data points or behavioral models. 

The ultimate battle isn’t just for truth – it’s for the human spirit itself. A system that can engineer perception can engineer submission. But there’s a beautiful irony here: the very act of recognizing these systems of reality construction is itself an expression of authentic consciousness – a choice that proves they haven’t conquered human perception completely. Free will cannot be engineered precisely because the capacity to see through engineered reality remains ours. In the end, their greatest fear isn’t that we’ll reject their manufactured world – it’s that we’ll remember how to see beyond it.

Republished from the author’s Substack

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 23:25

Iran 'Incredibly Weakened' By Over 200 US Strikes On Houthis: White House

The White House on Tuesday declared that Iran has been "incredibly" weakened as a result of the Pentagon operation against Yemen's Houthis which was renewed on March 15 by President Trump and his national security cabinet.

Immense controversy has ensued in the wake of 'Signalgate' which involved discussions of war planning with Atlantic journalist Jeffrey Goldberg privy to the group chat conversation. 

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said there's has been over 200 strikes on targets in Yemen. It has long been a US talking point going back to 2015 that the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) has been supplied by the Iranians. Shipments of Iranian weaponry has over the years been intercepted by US naval ships in Gulf area waters.

US Navy image

The group has fired at least eight ballistic missiles on Israel over the past week, but the US is leading the way in anti-Houthi operations.

"There have now been more than 200 successful strikes," Leavitt said. "Iran is incredibly weakened as a result. They’ve taken out Houthi leaders, critical members who have been launching strikes on naval ships and commercial vessels. This operation will not stop until the freedom of navigation in this region is restored."

The Houthis haven't confirmed the deaths of any leaders, nor has the US side acknowledged the repeat attacks on US warships or the carrier USS Truman. 

According to some of the latest:

According to a brief statement broadcast by the Houthi-run al-Masirah TV, five airstrikes at dawn targeted the Jarban area in the Sanhan district southeast of Sanaa, while two others hit the Bani Matar district west of the capital.

The statement further indicated that Saada, a stronghold of the group, was subjected to 15 U.S. airstrikes overnight, but did not disclose specific locations targeted.

Israeli media and The Associated Press have meanwhile said that these last two weeks of strikes on Yemen have been far more devasting than similar aerial assaults under Biden.

According to a report featured in center-left Times of Israel:

A new American airstrike campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels appears more intense and more extensive, as the US moves from solely targeting launch sites to firing at ranking personnel as well as dropping bombs in city neighborhoods, an Associated Press review of the operation shows.

The pattern under US President Donald Trump reflects a departure from the Biden administration, which limited its strikes as Arab allies tried to reach a separate peace with the group. It comes after the Iran-backed Houthis threatened to resume attacking “any Israeli vessel” over the country’s refusal to allow aid into the Gaza Strip.

Both sides appear content to keep mum on the extent of 'success' of the back-and-forth attacks. But the consensus among war analysts is that if the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping is to be rooted out, it will take a long, sustained campaign - which we should note has not had formal war authorization from Congress.

"Folks that say, ‘We’ll go in there and take out everyone with the last name Houthi and we’ll win.’ The Houthi leadership has been taken out in history in the past, and they are resilient,” said retired US Navy Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, per AFP. “They came back and they grew stronger. So this isn’t something that is a one-and-done.”

.@PressSec: "These Houthi strikes have been incredibly successful. Last time I was at this podium, there were more than 100 successful strikes. There have now been over 200 successful strikes -- Iran is incredibly weakened as a result of these attacks." pic.twitter.com/FEPyvFH5c8

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 1, 2025

As for Iran, it costs little for it to wage proxy war against US Navy ships positioned in the region. In a sense, the Pentagon is in the Iranians' backyard. Already, the Houthis have claimed to have downed the 16th US MQ-9 Reaper drone as of Tuesday, which hasn't been acknowledged as yet by the Pentagon. The controversy over the scope of US actions will likely only grow among the American populace.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 23:00

Russian Arctic LNG 2 Project Resumes Gas Processing

By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com

Arctic LNG 2, the processing and export facility that was billed as Russia’s flagship LNG project, has gradually resumed gas processing after months of hiatus, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing industry sources and satellite images.

Arctic LNG 2 has been under U.S. and EU sanctions since last year, and the project hasn’t been able to sell any cargo because of the sanctions.

The first production train at the plant was shut in early October over the project developers’ inability to secure buyers amid the Western sanctions on Arctic LNG 2, according to one of Reuters’ sources.

The plant continues has now slowly resumed gas processing and keeps it at low rates as Russia expects what the Trump Administration would do with the sanctions.

Russian LNG developer and exporter Novatek, the majority owner of Arctic LNG 2, is looking to rebuild relations with the U.S. with the help of lobbyists, sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters in December.

Hit heavily by sanctions, Arctic LNG 2 was put on ice last year and Novatek has struggled to sell any cargo to a buyer.

Located in the Gydan Peninsula, Arctic LNG 2 was considered key to Russia’s efforts to boost its global LNG market share from 8% to 20% by 2030-2035.

But the project has come under intensifying sanctions from the United States, which have put off any buyers that were previously considering buying cargoes from Arctic LNG 2.

The project has seen months of delays after the initial U.S. sanctions in November 2023 upended the company’s plans for production start-up and export timelines.

In August 2024, the U.S. State Department intensified efforts to derail Arctic LNG 2 exports by targeting companies involved in the development of the project and vessels found to have loaded LNG from the facility.

The U.S. designated multiple companies related to Arctic LNG 2 to further disrupt the project’s ability to produce and export LNG, as well as the project’s ability to procure critical LNG carriers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 22:35

FBI Weaponizes Background Checks To Enforce California Gun Ban

Submitted by Gun Owners of America,

When you go to a gun store to buy a new gun, you can expect a few things to happen.  First, some paperwork.  Second, you can expect to have to pass a background check before leaving with your gun.  And third, you can expect that the gun store will keep a record of your purchase for as long as the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives ("ATF") requires.  After all, that is how the government traces crime guns back to their original purchasers.

But what you might not expect is an FBI agent receiving a ping that you – yes, you – just successfully bought a gun.  And you might be surprised to learn that this agent has been receiving notifications of your purchases for months – or years.

Of course, such a surveillance scheme would be flatly unconstitutional – not to mention a violation of several safeguards already codified in federal law.  Yet slowly but surely, the government has been building a record of the private collections of thousands of American citizens, even though federal law expressly prohibits that "any system of registration of firearms, firearms owners, or firearms transactions or dispositions" be established.

Of course, even though they are being monitored, these victims remain law-abiding, meaning the government has no probable cause to justify seeking a warrant authorizing such a search in the first place.

Now, Gun Owners of America has discovered that the FBI has been using its Second Amendment surveillance program not only to enforce federal law, but also to help California target owners of newly banned "assault weapons."

FBI's NICS Monitoring Scheme

When news first broke of the FBI and ATF's joint "NICS Monitoring" surveillance scheme, the public was shocked.  As journalist John Crump reported in April of 2021, "monitoring of NICS isn't for prohibited people," but rather those who are eligible to purchase firearms but who law enforcement agents nevertheless suspect might commit a crime.

GOA learned that targets of NICS Monitoring – which exploits records in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System ("NICS") before they are deleted within 24 hours – never receive notice that their firearm transactions are being monitored.  Thus, there is no way to challenge the FBI's surveillance.

In fact, in order to enroll a target for NICS Monitoring, an agent only needs to complete an internal request form. At no point does an agent seeking NICS Monitoring have to convince a judge (or anyone other than himself, really) that this surveillance comports with the Fourth Amendment.  Entirely usurpingly, then, the FBI's abuse of NICS Monitoring is rampant.

Rampant Abuse of NICS Monitoring

After the NICS Monitoring scandal went public, GOA filed Freedom of Information Act ("FOIA") requests with the FBI and ATF seeking further records.  Naturally these agencies, the program's biggest abusers, were less than forthcoming with evidence of their clandestine activities, and GOA ultimately had to file suit to compel production of documents.

The subsequent document productions were illuminating.  They revealed a pattern of surveillance abuse so pervasive that federal agents could obtain NICS Monitoring based on anonymous tips.

As GOA reviewed more documents and public scrutiny increased, more and more abuses came to light.  For example, in one case an ATF agent requested NICS Monitoring of a man who had purchased a shotgun during the George Floyd riots, on the theory that he "may use a gun for rioting." 

In another case, an ATF agent requested NICS Monitoring of a man whose "reported wage earnings" did not "appear to supply the financial means to afford" firearms.  And in another case, ATF had a man monitored who merely "had a 'habit' of purchasing new guns, tinkering with them, losing interest, and subsequently selling them."

Thus, it would seem that self-defense, having a savings account, and a tinkering hobby – although perfectly lawful activities – are justification to have one's gun purchases surveilled indefinitely.

NICS Monitoring Is Unconstitutional and Unlawful

The FBI's surveillance scheme violates the Second and Fourth Amendment rights of gun owners. 

The Founders never sanctioned governmental monitoring of Americans' gun purchases.  Moreover, the Founders specifically required that all searches be reasonable, almost always meaning that they are based on warrants issued upon a finding of probable cause.  The FBI's NICS Monitoring program respects neither right.

NICS Monitoring also violates a number of provisions of federal law.  In anticipation that the NICS system would be abused to track gun owners, Congress has mandated that the FBI destroy all NICS records of "approved" firearm transactions within 24 hours. 

The FBI's copying and pasting of certain records out of the NICS system before they can be deleted clearly contravenes the 24-hour destruction requirement.

NICS Monitoring also violates the federal prohibition on the creation of registries of gun owners – a prohibition so important that Congress codified it twice: once generally, and once specifically with respect to NICS.

FBI Now Aiding State Gun Control Efforts

If the NICS Monitoring program's history thus far was not troubling enough, GOA has made a shocking new discovery – that, since at least 2023, the FBI has been surveilling gun owners on behalf of anti-gun states.  And to make matters worse, the FBI's surveillance involves firearm sales that are perfectly legal under federal law.

In one FBI NICS Monitoring submission, an FBI Special Agent from the agency's Chicago field office cited the following suspected violations of California law to justify a sixth-month monitoring period:

"MFG/SELL/TRANS/ETC ASSAULT WPN (30600(A) PC), STATE OFFENSE CODE 52509, FELONY 2; ILL POSS ANY ASSAULT WEAPON (30605(A) PC), STATE OFFENSE CODE 52510. FELONY."

Just how a federal background check approval would constitute evidence of unlawful state possession of an "assault weapon" within California, the agent did not say.  Nor did the agent seem to recognize that it is entirely possible to possess a firearm (or even have a residence) in a neighboring state and lawfully purchase and possess an "assault weapon" there without committing a California crime.

And regardless of California law, it is entirely unclear how it furthers the FBI's mission to prosecute violent crime by monitoring gun purchases that are completely legal under federal law.

Tellingly, the FBI refused to release further details of its investigation into the California gun owner, asserting a so-called "privacy Glomar" as to those details.  In other words, the FBI ridiculously refuses to acknowledge the existence of redacted information that it has already produced.

Thus, we are left with more questions than answers:

• What is the FBI doing worrying about violations of California's ban of pejoratively labeled "assault weapons"? 
• Is the enforcement of state gun control laws really an FBI priority, such that Second and Fourth Amendment rights are thrown by the wayside?

We hope FBI Director Kash Patel can answer these questions and dismantle this unlawful and unconstitutional program once and for all.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 21:45

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 119,000 payroll jobs added in March, up from 77,000 added in February.

China's Role In US Fentanyl Crisis Directed By Regime Leadership, Expert Says

Authored by Terri Wu & Olivia Li via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Tensions have been simmering between the United States and communist China as the two countries escalate tariffs on each other’s imports. Meanwhile, Beijing’s rhetoric has become increasingly confrontational.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

In early March, the Chinese Embassy in Washington shared a social media post from its Foreign Ministry, repeating its message: “If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

President Donald Trump has warned that, while the United States does not seek war with China, it is “very well-equipped to handle it.”

Trump has imposed an additional 20 percent tariff on all goods made in China, citing a national emergency on the continued trafficking of fentanyl—a deadly opioid that is 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine—into the United States.

To this day, China remains the primary source of fentanyl precursors, which are shipped to Mexico, where they’re manufactured into the illicit drug. It is then smuggled into the United States mainly via the southern border.

In response to Trump’s added tariff, Beijing imposed an additional 15 percent tariff on U.S. coal and natural gas and an extra 10 percent on agricultural equipment and pickup trucks.

The communist regime has also called the fentanyl epidemic the United States’ “own problem“ and has cast the U.S. tariffs as ”blackmail.”

Yuan Hongbing, a former law professor at Peking University in China who now lives in Australia, said the American opioid epidemic is far from the self-inflicted wound the CCP has suggested it is.

The Chinese regime has played a significant role in America’s fentanyl crisis, and blaming the United States for it has long been Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping’s strategy, Yuan told NTD, Epoch Times’ sister media outlet, in a recent episode of the Chinese-language program “Pinnacle View.”

Yuan, who has insider access to senior CCP leaders, said Xi has consistently given internal directives during both Trump’s first and second terms that Beijing must maintain the narrative that the drug crises in both Europe and the United States are not linked to China.

Yuan said the regime has also been directed by Xi to assert that China makes the chemical precursors legally, and that if they are converted into deadly drugs and smuggled into the United States or Europe, it is not China’s responsibility.

The China expert further stated that fentanyl is at the core of Xi’s bid to “take revenge” on the West. He said Xi blames the West for subjecting China to a century of humiliation as a result of the Opium Wars in the mid-19th century. During that time, China had to sign a series of unequal treaties that ceded Chinese territory and opened Chinese ports to foreign control.

“It is precisely due to Xi’s directives that we are now seeing a dramatic increase in both the production of fentanyl precursors in China and the export of these chemicals, fueling the ongoing fentanyl crisis in the United States,” Yuan said.

Fentanyl overdose deaths have become a national crisis, taking more than 200 American lives per day, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration. In 2023 alone, about 75,000 Americans died from fentanyl overdose, a staggering 23-fold increase from 10 years ago.

A bag of illicit fentanyl pills is held as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem tours the San Ysidro Port of Entry at the U.S.–Mexico border in San Diego on March 16, 2025. Alex Brandon/Getty Images

Today, accidental drug overdoses are the leading cause of death among Americans aged 18 to 45. On a more positive note, the number of opioid-related overdose deaths decreased by more than 20 percent in 2024, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The fentanyl crisis has become a key concern among American voters and has become one of the driving forces behind the dynamics of U.S.–China relations, said China expert Alexander Liao.

He said relations between Beijing and Washington have fundamentally changed. During the Biden administration, the two countries went through a diplomatic “ice age,” when senior-level official communication froze for approximately 10 months in 2022 and 2023. However, Liao believes the confrontation has now escalated to a new level.

“Whether it’s trade or other aspects, the United States and China have basically turned against each other,” Liao told The Epoch Times.

“Little noise but fierce action” is how he categorizes the current state between Beijing and Washington, in contrast to the “big arguments and little action” going on between the United States and Europe.

“The politics play differently between enemies and friends,” he said.

US Makes Perfect Enemy for Chinese Regime

Over the past decade, China saw significant economic growth. Its nominal GDP is now over three-quarters of that of the United States, according to data from the World Bank. When measured by purchasing power, China’s economy surpassed that of the United States in 2016.

Xi rose in the CCP ranks a few years before that and in 2013 took over its leadership.

According to Yuan, Xi’s communist nature drove him to immediately cash in on China’s economic strength to establish a foreign policy program, the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at expanding communist totalitarianism around the world.

Under the guise of infrastructure development, the $1 trillion geopolitical platform snatches up other countries’ natural resources, including critical minerals for computer chip production, and expands its use of their ports for its own civil and military purposes.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 20:55

Indian Refiners Seek Alternatives To Russian Oil After Trump Tariff Threat

Indian oil refiners have started looking for alternative supplies of crude after President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports if Moscow refuses to sign a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine.

Bloomberg reported that companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. were looking for oil cargoes from the Middle East, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean for May delivery in anticipation of tariff action.

India has emerged as one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude since the start of the war in Ukraine, with grades including Urals accounting for almost 40% of the nation’s imports last year. Refiners have enjoyed elevated profits due to the cheaper supplies, although that advantage has waned in recent months. China has also purchased bigger volumes since the invasion.

President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on all Russian oil, saying “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” in an interview for NBC.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States. There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil,” Trump elaborated.

The mechanism would be the same as the one Trump applied to Venezuela, slapping a 25% tariff on all imports from countries that continue buying crude from the South American nation.

Since the US is India’s top trading partner, under a scenario of “secondary tariffs” for buyers of Russian oil, it’s likely that the South Asian nation would look for alternative supplies, said Warren Patterson, the head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV in Singapore.

“Traditional sanctions have created enough uncertainty,” he said. “The idea of secondary tariffs only intensifies this uncertainty, given that it is a new tool. Buyers need to decide whether the advantages of picking up discounted crude outweigh the potential hit on its economy from additional tariffs.”

“The big question is, will these repeated shocks end up structurally reducing Indian appetite for Russian crude? I have my doubts, as long as the economics works,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “It’s a bluff, a bargaining ploy on the part of Trump. But refiners need to prepare, they can’t rely on hunches, no matter how bizarre and unlikely a supply threat.”

Such a tariff would be a considerable problem for India, whose dependence on imported crude hit an all-time high in the latest fiscal year. India imported 88.2% of the crude it consumed in the April 2024-February 2025 period, according to oil ministry data released at the end of last month. This is up from 87.7% for the previous fiscal year.

Due to this dependence, India is particularly price-sensitive, which is why it stepped up its purchases of Russian oil following the barrage of Western sanctions directed at Russia’s energy industry. Russia is currently India’s biggest single oil supplier.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 20:30

"There Will Be No Negotiating": Tesla Firebombing Suspect Hit With Federal Charges, Faces 20 Years In Prison

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice has filed federal charges against a suspect in connection with a firebombing attack on a Tesla dealership in Loveland, Colorado.

Cooper Frederick. Larimer County Sheriff's Office

Cooper Frederick, 24, faces federal charges related to the March 7 attack, according to Attorney General Pamela Bondi, who announced the charges on Monday.

“I made it clear, if you take part in the wave of domestic terrorism, I’ve made it clear if you take part in the wave of domestic terrorism against Tesla properties, we will find you, arrest you, and put you behind bars,” Bondi stated. “Today, I’m proud to announce that the Department of Justice has unsealed federal charges against another Tesla attacker.”

Frederick, a Fort Collins resident, was initially arrested by Loveland Police on March 13 on multiple state charges, according to a City of Loveland news release. The charges included possession of explosives, second-degree arson, criminal mischief, and criminal attempt to commit a felony.

A fire erupted after an incendiary device was thrown at the Tesla building and landed between two vehicles. Several people inside the building were cleaning at the time and could have been injured, according to the news release, which stated a responding officer quickly extinguished the fire.

Larimer County Jail records show Frederick bonded out of jail on March 14.

Bondi stated in the same announcement that, following the latest charges, Frederick was re-arrested in Plano, Texas, following an investigation by the FBI.

Frederick’s arrest comes amid a wave of violent attacks against Tesla properties since CEO Elon Musk became head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the Trump administration.

Incidents have occurred in at least nine states since January, with targets including Tesla showrooms, vehicles, and charging stations.

According to a report by The Epoch Times, on March 18, two Cybertrucks were set ablaze at a Las Vegas repair center, and “Resist” was spray-painted on the building.

Over that incident, police arrested 36-year-old Paul Hyon Kim on March 27, charging him with 15 offenses, including arson and firearms violations. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department Assistant Sheriff Dori Koren said Kim had self-proclaimed affiliations with far-left organizations, including Communist Party USA-affiliated groups and other movements.

In February, a suspect allegedly threw eight Molotov cocktails at a Tesla showroom in Salem, Oregon, while armed with a suppressed AR-15 rifle.

Additional attacks have also occurred in Charleston, South Carolina, and Austin, Texas.

“All of these cases are a serious threat to public safety. Therefore, there will be no negotiating. We are seeking 20 years in prison,” Bondi said.

In Canada, approximately 80 Tesla vehicles were also vandalized in Hamilton, Ontario, on March 19.

President Donald Trump has condemned the attacks on Tesla properties, suggesting perpetrators would face long sentences for their crimes.

“I look forward to watching the sick terrorist thugs get 20-year jail sentences for what they are doing to Elon Musk and Tesla,” he said in a March 21 post on Truth Social.

During a town hall event in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Sunday, Musk condemned the attacks.

“They’re burning Teslas and shooting up dealerships and calling for the death of the president and me … That’s somebody else’s car. Leave it alone,” Musk said during the livestreamed event.

A group called Tesla Takedown has organized protests at dealerships nationwide. On its website, the group states that “Elon Musk is destroying our democracy, and he’s using the fortune he built at Tesla to do it.” The group called for a Global Day of Action on March 29, which saw protests targeting Tesla around the United States and smaller-scale rallies in several European locations.

From NTD News

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 20:05

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for March: March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surge in Preemptive Move to Potential Tariff-Based Price Increases (pay site).

March sales were proof that U.S. consumers are very much paying attention to tariffs, as demand on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis surged to 17.8 million units, highest for any month in nearly four years, and far above January-February’s combined total of 15.8 million. Buyers flocking to dealer lots to beat potential price increases, combined with some pre-tariff push by automakers raising deliveries to fleet customers lifted raw volume to over a 4-year high, not to mention a rare double-digit year-over-year gain. Regardless of any coming impacts from tariffs, March's booming results will cause lower volume in the second quarter due to the additional drain to dealer inventory that, based on industry norms, was already lean prior to the month.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for February (red).
Sales in March (17.77 million SAAR) were up 11.1% from February, and up 13.3% from March 2024.

Sales in March were well above the consensus forecast.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

This was the best March since 2021.

Hollywood Claims Rachel Zegler Is "An Icon" Despite Epic Snow White Bomb

Unless you've been living under a rock for the past few years you're probably familiar with the controversy surrounding the "wokification" of Disney and their constant attempts to inject leftist activism into their media products.  Disney's cult-like dogma played a considerable role in the rise of the anti-woke movement and ultimately the fall of Hollywood, which is now reeling from an avalanche of box office failures.

One such predictable failure (perhaps the ultimate predictable failure) is the woke Snow White live action remake starring a veritable unknown actress by the name of Rachel Zegler.  To summarize why the public despises Zegler and this film so much, let's backtrack to 2021 when Zegler was announced for the beloved role.

First, the movie is called Snow White.  It's based on a centuries old German fairy tale which was eventually written down and published by the Brothers Grim in 1812.  These tales are an integral part of Medieval European heritage.  Though she is part Polish, Zegler is certainly not "snow white".  The casting choice was viewed by many fans of the original animation as a deliberate attempt to race swap yet another classic European character and troll western audiences with DEI.

If it was minority folk figure being replaced, the response from leftists would be rabid.  But, it's okay as long as the characters are white.

Then there was the public complaints of an angry little actor by the name of Peter Dinklage, who praised Disney for hiring a Latina to play Snow White but argued that hiring real life dwarfs to play the Seven Dwarfs would be "backwards" and demeaning.  Thus, in his burst of pint-sized outrage, Dinklage destroyed any chance for seven actors with dwarfism to make a name for themselves on the big screen. 

Then there was the leaked production photos of the "Seven Dwarfs", who were played by a laughably diverse cast of normal sized people.  Disney initially lied about the images and claimed they were "Fake and not from our production..."  As it turned out, the images were real.  The internet collectively laughed and gasped simultaneously at how bad and woke the movie was clearly going to be.

This is the sort of blunder that occurs when you try to make every "marginalized" activist group happy. 

The biggest handicap for the film, however, was Rachel Zegler's big mouth.  The actress hammed it up in interviews, disparaging the original Snow White as a "weird" relic of the patriarchal past and asserted that the remake would be a representation of empowerment for women who "don't need no man". 

Then there was Zegler's steady stream of anti-Trump and anti-conservative rants on social media.  A classic mistake of modern Hollywood actors; thinking that the public has any interest in their political insights.  Her comments hurt the film's chances even more.  Disney was eventually forced to delay the release for a year, claiming that it was "because of the 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike".  

The final product turned out to be a travesty, as everyone expected.  Snow White's bizarre DEI casting, set in a Medieval European landscape, takes the audience out of the story and reminds them that they are watching propaganda.  The overall structure and changes to the original are ill conceived and poorly though out.  The movie has hit a 40% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a 1.5/10 on IMDB.  It is currently expected to lose at least $140 million at the box office, though this may not include marketing costs.

 

Despite this undeniable defeat, once again proving that if you "Go woke" you will also "Go Broke", the Hollywood elites are proclaiming Zegler's role a success.  Why?  Because it served the interests of progressive messaging, even if no one watched the movie.  

Variety argues that Zegler is now an "icon" simply because "everyone is talking about her", playing on the old fallacy that all press is good press.   This piece was published after Variety posted a more honest assessment of Zegler's behavior, blaming her negativity as contributing to Snow White's demise.

Rachel Zegler: “People will wait in line despite my flaws.”

Welcome back to reality princess.. Snow White was a complete flop
pic.twitter.com/QaPHZtjqnL

— aka (@akafaceUS) March 24, 2025

Some celebrities have also jumped to Zegler's defense, and activists suggest that her behavior had nothing to do with the film's poor reception.  In other words, progressives  continue to deny that wokeness is box office poison.  All the evidence to the contrary will not sway them.  

Snow White only matters because it is a symbol of the culture war and the political left's refusal to accept reality.  They were warned for years that the movie would implode, but they would not listen.  Now that it's undeniable, they once again shift gears and make the controversy about the "victimization" of another loud-mouthed lead actress.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 18:00

Jim Quinn: Prophets, Nomads, & A Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards A Bloody Climax

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

In my last Fourth Turning article, a few days before the presidential election, I stated Trump would win in a landslide, unless the Deep State pulled some outrageous stunt to steal it, like they did in 2020. Their cheating machines were unable to overcome the dementia dummy effect and running a vacuous cackling moron DEI candidate as Trump’s opponent. I also thought the ingrained opposition would use all their vast ill-gotten financial resources to pay for violent protests, if Trump won. The gutting of USAID has defunded the domestic terrorists and made their protests pathetic.

Trump’s overwhelming victory in the election and defeat of the illegal lawfare attacks from his Deep State enemies defused their ability to keep him from being inaugurated. And boy did he hit the ground running. His first 7 weeks in office have been a tornado of executive orders, shockingly bold cabinet picks, mass firings of government drones, deportations of illegals, tariff wars, threats to take over Greenland and Canada, confrontations with world leaders, war on DEI and woke bullshit policies within the government and at universities funded by the government, and unleashing Musk and his DOGE team on the Federal bureaucracy.

The dynamics of this Fourth Turning have begun to crystalize in my mind with the re-ascension of Trump to the most powerful position in the world, and now willing to wield his power on a far grander scale then he did during his first term. The previous two Fourth Turning presidents, during the Great Depression/World War II Fourth Turning and the Civil War Fourth Turning, acted like dictators, wielding their authoritarian powers, using war as the excuse for overstepping their Constitutionally granted authority.

Ruling by executive order has now become commonplace, as our Republic has degenerated into a corporate fascist totalitarian state where the spoils have been shared by the privileged few, while the rest of us have been propagandized into subjugation, depravity, debt, and debasement. Trump has assumed a dictatorial attitude, with the rationale that he must do so to defeat the evil forces of the Deep State, and more than 50% of the population is enthusiastically onboard.

There is generally no middle ground when it comes to Donald Trump. You either despise him and scream he is literally Hitler, or you worship him as the savior of America, leading us to a glorious renaissance. Personally, I find myself in the middle ground, based on what he has done, rather than what he says. I was disappointed in his first term, even though he did a number of good things. His personnel choices were awful, putting Barrett on the Supreme Court was a terrible selection, and locking down the country while making a deal with the devil (Fauci & Pfizer) to produce a toxic vaccine destined to kill far more than it saved, continues to be a massive blemish on his record. But what is done is done. Even the most skeptical cynic has to admit, there have been several positive developments in Trump’s second term.

The issue which had biggest impact in getting Trump elected was the border and the democrat plot to destroy America by funding the invasion of America by 3rd world dregs. The dementia dummy president was given ice cream and told to stand aside by his Obama handlers, while millions of lowlifes poured across our southern border. Trump’s selection of Tom Homan as border czar was brilliant, and the actions taken to secure the border thus far have produced dramatic results. We need millions more deportations, but we are off to a good start.

Trump learned his lesson from the first term, when he surrounded himself with Deep State backstabbers, while failing to purge the departments of his enemies. He has appointed highly competent outsiders into most of the key cabinet positions. The DC bureaucracy is being gutted as we speak, if not by his appointees, then by Musk and his DOGE army. Purging the swamp of his bureaucratic enemies is essential to achieving progress. And purging the judiciary of far-left apparatchiks on the payroll of Soros must be next.

There truly is $2 trillion in spending that can be cut. Going back to 2019 spending levels, before the “Covid emergency spending” should be the goal. The amount of corruption, bribery, and fraud within the Federal government is astronomical, and Musk and his DOGE unit should be applauded for lifting the rocks and shining a light on these maggots. DOGE claims to have saved $130 billion thus far. That sounds like a lot, and it is. But some perspective will reveal the true nature of our predicament.

The Federal government spends $130 billion per week on average. We add over $5 billion to the national debt every single day. This tsunami of deficit spending is a perpetual uniparty supported machine. The continuing resolution jammed through by Trump and his minions increases spending. DOGE is great PR for the Trump army, and it is the perfect bogeyman for his enemies. But, it is unlikely to materially alter the course we are on. The national debt was $36.2 trillion when Trump assumed control. There is no doubt it will exceed $44 trillion before he leaves office.

There are 135 million full-time workers in the U.S., and approximately 18 million of them work for the government. Many millions more in private industry are dependent upon government contracts to sustain them. I am 100% onboard gutting government bureaucracy. But there will be consequences. Data from Washington DC is already showing a plunge in home prices and surge in unemployment. The combination of layoffs, reduced government outlays, and tariff impacts will likely push us into recession during 2025.

Taking the pain in year one of his administration may be Trump’s game plan, with an anticipated strong recovery in the 2nd half of his presidency. The question is whether the recession will deflate the everything bubble – stocks, bonds, real estate, and crypto, or just be a bump in the road to long term prosperity. With valuations in all asset classes at nosebleed heights, I expect a major correction across the board. Whether a recession and correction turn into a depression and crash will depend upon the behavior of our leaders.

At each of these great gates of history, eighty to a hundred years apart, a similar generational drama unfolded. Four archetypes, aligned in the same order – elder Prophet, midlife Nomad, young adult Hero, child Artist – together produced the most enduring legends in our history. Each time the Grey Champion appeared marked the arrival of a moment of “darkness, and adversity, and peril,” the climax of the Fourth Turning of the saeculum. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

There has been much debate since Trump descended on the escalator in 2015 at Trump Towers as to whether he was one of the Grey Champions of this Fourth Turning. I had my doubts after the 2020 election was stolen, but his re-ascension to power in 2025 leaves no doubt he is the lightning rod for what will take place in the final stages of this Crisis period. Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping are all from the Prophet generation and have assumed the mantle of Grey Champions for their nations.

How these men interact over the next several years will determine the course of this Fourth Turning. Thus far, the skirmishes in Ukraine and the Middle East have been relatively contained. Fourth Turning climaxes have been historically bloody and devastating. If China invades Taiwan, North Korea invades South Korea, or the EU pushes Putin too far, that will surely spur mass destruction and mass casualties on a grand scale. And with nuclear technology far more advanced since WWII, the possibility of planetary destruction is not a zero possibility.

Fourth Turnings can have multiple regeneracies with the first being when the financial system was artificially propped up by the Fed and Treasury in 2009, making the financial system far less stable over the long-term and setting the stage for the grand collapse. The regeneracy cannot always be identified with a single news event.  But it does have to mark the beginning of a growth in centralized authority and decisive leadership at a time of great peril and urgency.

Trump’s actions during his first 7 weeks back in office most certainly classify as a regeneracy, through executive orders, mandates, and decisive actions, designed to undo all the purposeful destruction incurred under Biden. The reaction of his enemies, using lawfare, their media mouthpieces, and judicial roadblocks, has ratcheted the anger and vitriol within the country to a boiling point.

The blowback from the Trump/Musk agenda of slashing Federal bloat, firing government drone bureaucrats, dismantling corrupt, treasonous organizations hidden within the Federal bureaucracy (USAID), eliminating ineffective departments, like the Department of Education, and trying to root out corruption and waste, has been predictably violent. The burning of Tesla dealerships, coordinated anti-Musk messaging from the captured mainstream media, and artificial protests across the nation are all funded by Soros and his ilk, just as the fake BLM protests were used to destroy Trump’s first term.

Every executive order designed to rectify the purposely created border invasion, cut waste, fraud, and corruption within the Federal government, along with the purging of agencies of his enemies, has been met with judicial obstruction by judges placed in positions of power by Soros and the lawfare army created by Obama and his minions. The term Constitutional Crisis has been overused, but I believe we are headed for a clash that will not resolve itself through the existing legal system.

The judiciary can no longer be expected to interpret the law in an unbiased manner based upon the Constitution. When Trump decides to ignore the rulings of this plethora of corrupt judges, what happens next? The so-called judges thwarting Trump at every turn are not interpreting the law, they are exercising activist political prerogatives which they have been paid off by Soros and his lawfare organizations to sponsor.

From my perspective, the world has become more chaotic and confusing on a daily basis since Trump’s election. From a Fourth Turning perspective, this is to be expected. The Crisis never resolves itself through compromise or an agreed upon peaceful resolution. The cascade into a spiraling downward implosion of trust in institutions, politicians, media talking heads, corporate titans, and central bankers is leading the country and world towards a catastrophic debt collapse which will plunge the world into a global depression.

Whether this has been pre-planned by the ruling oligarchs to invoke the Great Taking, the new world order, and CBDCs, is still a question in my mind. Is Trump a willing participant in this diabolical plan or a well-intentioned patsy they are manipulating with his MAGA army to ensure their plan goes off without a hitch?

What is clearly evident to me, is the globalist cabal ruling elite are absolutely trying to thwart Trump and Putin’s peace efforts in resolving the Ukraine war. They are using every opportunity to provoke Putin into starting WW3 with NATO and forcing the U.S. to honor our treaty obligations. Their desperation is obvious, as the discredited and highly unpopular stooges governing France, the U.K., Canada and Germany make unhinged statements and threats on a daily basis, threatening war with Russia.

Putin is the only statesman, operating in a rational manner, and attempting to negotiate a sane outcome to a conflict initiated by U.S. neocons in 2014. This global crisis will just be exacerbated by the brewing Constitutional crisis being precipitated by the Deep State operatives and their judicial machinations, designed to force Trump into initiating a violent response to Soros and his bought off treasonous judicial cronies.

Trump’s rhetoric about a glorious new era of economic nirvana, built upon tariffs, lower taxes and energy independence sounds great, but it is nothing but pie in the sky pipe dreams. It’s too late. Talk about balancing the budget is nothing but bloviating bullshit. Trump and his economic gurus have no intention of balancing the budget, because doing so would lead to the worst depression in history.

This entire Ponzi economic house of cards depends upon the issuance of $6 billion of debt PER DAY. Our fake positive GDP growth data depends on the government spending $5 trillion of printed fiat (17% of GDP) per year on wars, welfare, and waste, with the ignorant brainwashed masses spending $19 trillion of money they don’t have (using credit cards) on shit they don’t need making up 68% of total GDP.

Meanwhile, financial markets are at historically high (and dangerous) levels, home prices are at all-time highs, real inflation has been pushing 10% for the last five years, credit card, auto and student loan debt are at record levels, and most importantly, gold continues to hit new record highs every day. The stock market is wobbling like it normally does as a precursor to a crash. Home sales are at decade lows as sky high prices and higher mortgage rates have made it impossible for most people to buy.

Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are surging. Millions of people who haven’t made a student loan payment in years now have to pay up. Their credit scores are crashing due to non-payments. Gold surges when the financial system shows signs of collapse. All the ingredients are present for a catastrophic explosion, just waiting for a spark to ignite the volatile mixture. At this point, the financial system is so unstable and fragile that an otherwise inconsequential grain of sand added to the pile could precipitate the collapse.

I believe the chaos, confusion, conflict, and collapse of confidence portends a prolonged period of discord as this Fourth Turning accelerates towards its denouement. The numerous neocon forces in the EU and US attempting to prolong and broaden the Ukraine conflict, along with the Zionist efforts to provoke a war with Iran, have pushed the world to the brink of a new global conflict. All previous Fourth Turnings were decided by an all-out bloody war, and this one is likely to experience a similarly tragic outcome. The billionaire oligarchs who have purposely created havoc and turmoil as a means to increase their wealth, power, and control over the politicians they have put into place to implement their new world order agenda.

The proliferation of assassinations and assassination attempts is a sign of increased vitriol towards those considered evil and expendable by their enemies. The assassination of corporate executives, attempts on Trump, and foiled plans against a Supreme Court justice and Musk mark a new violent turn to this Fourth Turning. Will someone try to take out some of these leftist judges who are impeding the will of the people on behalf of their leftist billionaire quislings?

Will the Ukraine and EU attempt to assassinate Putin, as they have done to numerous other Russian politicians? What I do know is there is a powerful faction attempting to initiate a global war as part of their new world order agenda. All it will take is for someone somewhere to do something stupid and then it will turn nasty, with more death and destruction than a reasonable American can possibly conceive after living in their false bubble of safety and security for decades. Once the dominos begin falling, there will be no stopping them.

“With so much chaos, someone will do something stupid. And when they do, things will turn nasty.” – Inspector Finch – V for Vendetta

The burning of Tesla showrooms, brainwashed idiots committing acts of vandalism, and the Soros funded fake protests across the country are only infuriating the normies and pushing us closer to civil chaos. Russia rightfully accusing France and the UK of committing acts of war against energy sites within Russia, along with Trump fulminating about Putin not cooperating, while bombing the shit out of Yemen as instructed by Israel, has turned up the heat on the imminent global conflict.

The two Prophet generation lightning rods for the coming conflict, Trump and Putin, with Bill Gates and RFK Jr. as lesser players, will make the decisions and choices which will determine the future course of this world. In the previous two Fourth Turnings, Nomad Generation facilitators of Lincoln and FDR’s strategy, Grant, Sherman, Eisenhower, and Patton, had to unflinchingly send hundreds of thousands of men to their deaths. Trump’s Nomad Generation agent of change – Elon Musk – has concentrated on rooting out fraud, waste, and inefficiencies in the Federal government, provoking violence and revealing the traitorous henchmen within the judiciary and Soros financed NGOs. Putin’s chief Nomad generation right hand man – Dmitry Medvedev – is a bomb thrower who thrives on conflict.

This Crisis period is accelerating and intensifying on a daily basis, as Trump, Putin and Xi, and a myriad of other world leaders provoke, posture, and threaten each other, with all signs pointing towards military conflict. The propaganda media, led by the NYT, are now admitting we have been at war with Russia since 2014. The entire conflict since 2022 has been funded and fought using U.S. technology, weapons, and personnel. Over $200 billion wasted on another lost war. Those of us in the alt-media revealed the truth about this proxy war years ago.

With Zelensky following orders from his EU benefactors, the fledgling peace efforts of Trump and Putin are destined to fail. The ongoing slaughter in the Middle East, along with the intense saber rattling regarding the U.S. attacking Iran on behalf of Israel, and the US declaring China as its largest military threat regarding their eventual takeover of Taiwan, are building towards a major global conflict, which the purposely distracted and dumbed down masses have no clue is approaching. Boomer leaders are unbending, punitive, authoritarian minded, and willing to risk the destruction of the planet in order to achieve what they have been assigned to accomplish by the globalist oligarchs calling the shots. In 1997, Strauss & Howe predicted the dangers we would face as the climax of this Fourth Turning approached.

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Gold and Oil have been surging, with gold hitting new highs every day, up 38% in the last year, indicating all is not well in this world. The United States has been a nation for two and half centuries, only becoming an empire within the last one hundred years. Trump can pontificate about creating a new morning in America, but it is too late, as darkness descends upon the Republic created by strong courageous men, but slowly destroyed by weak cowardly men, moneyed interests, corrupt politicians, traitorous globalist billionaires, and a populace too dumbed down and distracted by technological bread and circuses to care about future generations.

In 1785 the Americans had won the Revolutionary War, but had not yet written the Constitution or elected a president in the final stages of the first American Fourth Turning. Exactly 80 years later in 1865, the American Civil War Fourth Turning reached its bloody conclusion. Exactly 80 years later in 1945, World War 2 was won, after the loss of 65 million lives. We are now exactly 80 years later in 2025, ready to write another dramatic chapter in the annals of history.

After World War 2, America was the conquering hero wearing the golden crown, but failed to heed the warning all previous empires had also ignored – all glory is fleeting. As we approach our rendezvous with destiny, take note, as described in the bible, that history is cyclical and there is a time for everything. 

I think everyone needs to understand we are entering a time of war, a time to hate, a time to kill, and a time to die. I wish it weren’t so, but the cycles of history don’t lie. Good luck and Godspeed.

To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven;
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.

Ecclesiastes 3: 1-8

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/01/2025 - 17:40