Individual Economists

Beijing Slams Trump's "Unilateral Bullying" Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action

Zero Hedge -

Beijing Slams Trump's "Unilateral Bullying" Tariffs, Signals Retaliatory Action

President Trump's late afternoon announcement on Wednesday—"Liberation Day"—unveiled a far more aggressive tariff policy than top Wall Street analysts had anticipated, prompting panic dumping in global equities and futures markets overnight.

Of particular concern is Trump's stance toward China. The total effective tariff rate on Chinese imports surged to 54%, a dramatic increase of 34% from the previously imposed 20% in additional levies tied to fentanyl and earlier duties.

Trump's Liberation Day has drawn swift condemnation from Beijing, which has described the escalating tariff war as "unilateral bullying." 

Nikkei Asia quoted China's Ministry of Commerce, warning that it "firmly opposes" Trump's tariffs and "will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests."

The Commerce Ministry noted that the US "ignored" the benefits of a global trading system, adding, "The so-called 'reciprocal tariffs,' which are based on subjective and unilateral assessments by the United States, are not in line with the rules of international trade, seriously jeopardize the legitimate rights and interests of the parties concerned, and are typical of unilateral bullying." 

The ministry did not discuss specifics on the countermeasures. A ministry spokesperson told reporters that Beijing hopes to "resolve various issues through equal consultation." 

In other words, it's just a matter of time before Beijing mounts a countermeasure against the US, whether that's targeted tariffs, export controls, or other measures (such as targeting US Big Tech). Or as we've recently seen: Beijing Derailing Panama Port Deal.

Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, sang the same tune: China "firmly opposes" Trump's trade war escalation, which "seriously undermines" the rules-based global trading system. He urged Washington to resolve trade differences through talks. 

However, President Trump tried that with the Chinese Communist Party in his first term with the so-called "Phase One" agreement. Beijing committed to purchasing $200 billion of additional US exports. Yet, the phase one deal with the CCP was derailed by Covid disruptions. 

The Trump administration's goal with reciprocal tariffs against literally the entire world, including some cases of near triple-digit reciprocal tariffs that will lead to a historic emerging markets shock, is to reverse a half-century or more of de-industrialization policies in the US that have hollowed out the nation's core and produced a national security threat as the world fractures into a bipolar state.

In financial markets, the People's Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 7.1889 per dollar, weakening the currency. This allows the yuan to depreciate and support export competitiveness. A move like this will only draw accusations of currency manipulation from Trump.

"We maintain our view that the PBOC will not allow a sharp [yuan] depreciation given capital outflow risks and the government's objective to restore confidence in the Chinese economy," HK Mizuho Securities analyst Ken Cheung wrote in a note earlier.

Goldman analysts Andrew Tilton and others told clients:

On April 2, President Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on trading partners with exclusion of products that are subject to sectoral tariffs, resulting in what we estimate to be an increase of 26pp in the average effective US tariff rate on China, which would bring the total effective tariff rate on Chinese goods to 58%.

This is much higher than we and the market had expected. Similar to the experience when the previous two 10% tariff increases were imposed on China earlier this year, we think the Chinese government is likely to retaliate with some targeted tariffs on US products as well as non-tariff measures like export controls.

We expect policymakers to continue to resist significant CNY depreciation. We believe the government will step up easing measures to offset the additional growth drag from higher tariffs. We are not changing our 2025 full-year GDP growth forecast of 4.5% at this time due to better-than-expected Q1 data and increased policy easing expectations, as well as remaining uncertainties regarding whether some of the tariffs could be negotiated down in the coming months. That said, we acknowledge downside risk from slowing global growth after the large, across-the board US tariff increases.

S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Ming Tan warned that Trump's tariffs could exacerbate China's weak economy:

"The drag on China's economy from higher tariffs will transmit to banks. We expect problem loans will rise over the next few years and could leap as high as 6.4% of total loans in a downside scenario."

Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, had a big-picture view for clients: "The era of Asia's export manufacturing-led development has come to an end, and the region will need to develop markets closer to home." 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 07:20

In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria

Zero Hedge -

In Warning To Turkey, Israel Strikes Several Bases Across Syria

Israel on Tuesday carried out several major airstrikes on Syria, including targeting the capital of Damascus, according to state agency SANA.

"An Israeli occupation airstrike targeted the vicinity of the building of the scientific research center in the Barzeh residential district of Damascus," the outlet said. This area has been hit several times in recent years, as it conducted chemical weapons research under Assad.

Smoke over the Syrian capital in the evening hours.

Separate airstrikes rocked a military airport in Hamas, and reportedly the T4 airbase in Homs province, in central Syria (Syrian desert).

No causalities were initially reported, but some sources say they were particularly intense, with five airstrikes launched on the Hama air base in less than half an hour on Wednesday evening.

Regional war correspondent Elijah Magnier observers of the strikes:

After bombing Damascus, Israel also bombed Syria, Hama and the T4 airport, challenging Turkey, which was/is planning to establish a military air base at the same bombed airport.

Since Bashar al-Assad's ouster on December 8, Israel has conducted literally hundreds of strikes on army bases, weapons storehouses, and alleged chemical weapons sites.

The timing of these fresh strikes is interesting especially given Turkey's growing closeness to the new Jolani regime.

We earlier featured reporting which says Turkey is mulling the takeover of Syria's T4 airbase, and could provide aircover to the new government, given it has no air protection to speak of. It appears Israel wants to ensure this doesn't happen:

A source familiar with the matter told MEE that Turkey has begun moving to take control of the T4 air base, located near Palmyra in central Syria. "A Hisar-type air defense system will be deployed to T4 to provide air cover for the base," the source said.

"Once the system is in place, the base will be reconstructed and expanded with necessary facilities. Ankara also plans to deploy surveillance and armed drones, including those with extended strike capabilities," the same report said.

While Iran has long been Israel's enemy number one in Syria, Turkey is increasingly being viewed from Tel Aviv as a dangerous regional rival, especially as it cozies up to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham/AQ militants in Syria. Israel now wants to ensure it has complete dominance over Syria's skies for the foreseeable future.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 06:55

Maxine Waters Alleges Trump Wants To Replace US Dollar With His Stablecoin

Zero Hedge -

Maxine Waters Alleges Trump Wants To Replace US Dollar With His Stablecoin

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, used her opening statement at a markup hearing to criticize President Donald Trump’s business and ethical entanglements with the crypto industry, including the launch of a stablecoin by a family-backed company.

Addressing lawmakers at an April 2 hearing, Waters said Trump had used his position as president to leverage “multiple crypto schemes” for profit, including a US dollar-pegged stablecoin launched by World Liberty Financial (WLFI) — the firm backed by his family.

The California lawmaker pointed to Trump’s memecoin launched in January, his plans to establish a national cryptocurrency stockpile, and “his own stablecoin,” referring to WLFI’s USD1 token launched in March.

Rep. Maxine Waters addressing the House Financial Services Committee on April 2. Source: GOP Financial Services

“With this stablecoin bill, this committee is setting an unacceptable and dangerous precedent, validating the president and his insiders’ efforts to write rules of the road that will enrich themselves at the expense of everyone else,” said Waters, adding:

“Trump likely wants the entire government to use stablecoins from payments made by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, to Social Security payments, to paying taxes. And which coin do you think Trump would replace the dollar with? His own, of course.”

Waters does not stand alone in her criticism of Trump’s crypto ventures, with many lawmakers and experts across the political spectrum suggesting potential conflicts of interest.

Committee Chair French Hill, who spoke on stablecoins before Waters, also reportedly said that the Trump family’s involvement in the industry makes legislation “more complicated.”

“If there is no effort to block the President of the United States of America from owning his stablecoin business [...] I will never be able to agree on supporting this bill, and I would ask other members not to be enablers,” said Waters. 

Representative Bryan Steil, who introduced the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act, did not immediately address Waters’ concerns about Trump’s stablecoin but referred to establishing safeguards for consumers.

Hill did not mention Trump in his opening statement but said there needed to be a “clear federal framework” for payment stablecoins.

Crypto legislation moving through Congress

The committee will consider amendments to the STABLE Act, as well as bills to combat illicit finance using emerging financial technologies and blocking the US government from issuing a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.

The markup hearing was a necessary step before the committee could vote on whether to advance the bills to the House of Representatives.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 06:30

European Officials Now Worry About Reliance Of Dollar Funding By The Fed

Zero Hedge -

European Officials Now Worry About Reliance Of Dollar Funding By The Fed

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Can the EU rely on dollar funding by the Fed with Trump in play?

Dollar Funding Under Trump

Reuters reports Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under Trump

Some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said, casting some doubt over what has been a bedrock of financial stability.

But the European officials have held informal discussions about this possibility – which Reuters is reporting for the first time – because their trust in the United States government has been shaken by some of the Trump administration’s policies.

President Donald Trump has made a sharp break from long-standing U.S. policy in several areas, such as appearing to endorse Russia’s position on Ukraine, raising questions about U.S. commitment to European security and imposing tariffs on its allies.

In some European forums where participants assess potential risks to the financial system, these officials have discussed scenarios under which the U.S. government might pressure the Fed to suspend the dollar backstops, two of the sources said.

Some officials have been gaming out whether they can find alternatives to the U.S. central bank, the two sources said. In times of market stress, the Fed has provided the European Central Bank and other major counterparts with access to dollar funding.

The takeaway from these discussions: there is no good substitute to the Fed, said the six sources, who include senior ECB and European Union banking supervisory staff with first-hand knowledge of the conversations.

The sources all requested anonymity to speak candidly about the private deliberations.

The ECB and the Fed declined to comment for this article. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Remarkable Discussion

My answer is the same as what sources told Reuters.

“The sources consider it highly unlikely the Fed would not honour its funding backstops — and the U.S. central bank itself has given no signals to suggest that.”

However, that Europe sees any need for this discussion is remarkable in and of itself.

The Fed is still independent, at least for now. But it’s fair game to assume the US Treasury might pressure the Fed to do whatever the Hell Trump wants.

Weaponization of Swift

Please consider the March 2022 Richmond Fed article What Is SWIFT, and Could Sanctions Impact the U.S. Dollar’s Dominance? 

The recent removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system has highlighted the importance of payments in supporting economies. But the weaponization of SWIFT has also left some commentators worrying about the loss of the U.S. dollar’s dominance, as it might drive banks and firms to other substitutes. This Economic Brief discusses the economics of SWIFT and explains why emigrating from the U.S. dollar may be more difficult than we thought.

The Richmond’s Fed’s assessment is self-serving. Yet, it appears accurate. Importantly the Fed even admits weaponization, the emphasis was mine.

Dollar Weaponization Expands

On May 13, 2023 I commented Dollar Weaponization Expands – FDIC Message to Foreign Depositors Is Don’t Trust the US

Systemic Risk Assessment

The FDIC made a “systemic risk exception” for Silicon Valley Bank to protect depositor funds beyond its limit of $250,000 per bank account.

FDIC’s stated “insurance” is for US depositors only. But the exception to make all US depositors whole means foreign depositors bear 100% of responsibility for the collapse of SVB.

Since bond holders rate higher than unsecured depositors, and the FDIC had significant losses rated to SVB, foreign depositors may get zero cents on the dollar.

If you are a foreign depositor at any small or midsized bank, the FDIC is affirming that you better get your money out now. 

What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free?

On March 18, 2022, I asked What Does China Do With a Dollar That’s No Longer Risk Free? Buy Gold?

Q&A With Michael Pettis

Mish: Will China now hold more commodities and fewer dollars despite the pro-cyclical nature of it? More Euros or Yen over dollars? More gold?

Michael Pettis:

  • “Given that so much of China’s “reserves” are now indirect and held by state-owned banks (all the increase since 2017) it’s hard to say what the currency composition of China’s reserves are.
  • “Officially the US dollar is still by far the biggest component, but it is slowly declining.
  • “I expect that this will continue as far as the official reserves go but, as you know, the hard part of reducing the US dollar component of your reserves is figuring out what the alternative should be, and with such high and growing reserves (once you include the indirect reserves at the state-owned banks) that is a very difficult question to resolve.”
Is China Dumping US Treasuries?

I post https://twitter.com/LukeGromen/status/1648364877302452225

“Strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year.”

This question comes up every year, and every year my answer is the same.

No, Luke Gromen, China masks its US treasury holding.

Here’s the correct take.

Here’s another take.

Setser “The dollar’s share of reserves didn’t actually change at all in 2022.“

What About China?

Setser “Looking at reserves without also looking at the foreign assets of state banks and SWFs is so … 2012.“

China masks its reserves in SOEs, something I have commented on many times.

Still More Fairy Tales of US Dollar Demise That Didn’t Happen

For discussion, please see my April 26, 2023 post Still More Fairy Tales of US Dollar Demise That Didn’t Happen

Sorry for the digression, but it’s an important one.

It is currently very difficult to avoid the dollar.

More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar

On July 7, 2023, I noted More Gold Backed BRIC Currency Silliness on Dethroning the Dollar

If Russia or China had a gold-backed BRIC, what would that even mean? Would you trust it? Buy it?

The BRIC is literally of zero threat to anyone.

Truth Social Post

“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”

“They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”

On November 30, 2024, I commented Trump’s Obvious Bluff Over BRICS Currency Proves He Is Clueless on Trade

Let’s start with the obvious. First, Trump is bluffing. Second, he is clueless as to what the real problem is.

Global Consumers of Last Resort

The US is stuck with the reserve currency because we have the largest, most open capital markets in the world, the world’s largest bond market, and a far better business climate than the EU, China, or Japan.

BRICS Irony

Trump demands a weak dollar.

True competition to the dollar in the form of alternate reserve currencies would actually help.

Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One

On March 16, 2025, I commented Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One

One way to get a weaker dollar is for the US to run huge budget deficits and for the Fed to not follow through with interest rate hikes.

But that conflicts with Trump’s promise to balance the budget. And balancing the budget would strengthen the dollar.

Strengthening the dollar would help with inflation but Trump wants a weak dollar.

Trump wants “made in America” but the US is the highest cost producer or nearly everything non-agricultural. So good luck with exports.

Trump demands no competition to the dollar, but that is one thing propping up the dollar!

It’s all so damn convoluted that Europe is now concerned over dollar funding.

US dollar avoidance is not easy, as discussed, but Trump is greatly increasing the incentive for nations to try.

I suggest the EU needs to focus on building an alternative to SWIFT, as soon as possible. The EU half-heartily tried, but gave up.

Try again, better this time.

Swift avoidance would not end dollar reliance, but it would help the EU find ways to avoid US sanctions. And a sanction showdown with the EU is coming.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 05:00

ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu

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ICC Blasts Hungary For Ignoring Arrest Warrant As Orban Hosts Netanyahu

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has denounced Hungary’s decision to defy its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu after The Hague charged him with war crimes last year related to the Gaza war.

Netanyahu is set to begin a four-day visit to Hungary on Wednesday. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made it clear he will not enforce the arrest warrant upon issuing the invitation. This despite Hungary being a founding member of the ICC.

AFP/Getty Images

This marks only Netanyahu's second international trip since the warrant was issued, and he's had to avoid Europe altogether until now. The only other trip was to the United States, where he had received a standing ovation in Congress.

Last November, when Budapest first unveiled the formal state invitation, Orban dismissed the ICC's arrest warrant as "shameful" and "absurd".

It should be noted that Hungary had also long ago declared it would never arrest Russian president Vladimir Putin should he visit the country. The conservative populist Hungarian leader had further accused The Hague of "interfering in an ongoing conflict for political purposes" - in reference to Israel's Gaza operations.

ICC court spokesman Fadi El Abdallah in a fresh statement said that it is not for parties to the ICC "to unilaterally determine the soundness of the Court’s legal decisions." 

"Any dispute concerning the judicial functions of the Court shall be settled by the decision of the Court," he said, asserting that member nations have an obligation to carry out the rulings of the court.

The Associated Press has observed that "Members of Orbán’s government have suggested that Hungary, which became a signatory to the court in 2001, could withdraw."

Amnesty International was also among the human rights groups blasting Hungary's provocative invitation, with a spokesperson saying, "Hungary’s invitation shows contempt for international law and confirms that alleged war criminals wanted by the ICC are welcome on the streets of a European Union member state."

More anger directed at Orban as he's already unpopular among Western European leaders, and a longtime thorn in the side of EU counterparts...

Israel's Gaza operations started again last month, and Gaza health authorities say that over 1,000 Palestinians have died since then. This brings the official number of deaths to over 50,000. However, Israel has disputed these figures, and has claimed that tens of thousands of the casualties are actually Hamas fighters.

Days ago Israel's military once again ordered the evacuation of Rafah, and emerging reports say that in Gaza City food and water are becoming scarce. Netanyahu has vowed, despite an avalanche of international criticism, to pursue Hamas until the group is eradicated and can no longer attempt to assert its rule over Gaza.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 04:15

Rape, Violent Crime Explodes Even Higher In Germany; Number Of "Non-German" Suspects Up

Zero Hedge -

Rape, Violent Crime Explodes Even Higher In Germany; Number Of "Non-German" Suspects Up

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Violent crime and sexual assault cases have increased in number even further in Germany, according to police statistics.

The number of “non-German” suspects has also risen by over 7 and a half percent, according to the figures seen by German newspaper Die Welt.

The statistics show that violent crime as a whole was up by 1.5 per cent in 2024, a new record high for the country.

The report states that the number of murder and manslaughter cases are up by almost 1 per cent in a year, while serious sexual crimes including rape and sexual assault leading to death have risen by a whopping 9.3 per cent in 2024.

As we have previously noted, the “non-German” suspects aspect is also misleading given that many of the “German” suspects of crimes are really foreigners who have obtained German citizenship, or they are Second or third generation migrants.

2023’s stats revealed that violent crime in Germany rocketed to a 15 year high, and 2024’s stats show that it continues to climb.

Over 41 percent of all crime suspects in Germany are foreigners, despite only representing 15 percent of the total population. Foreign migrants were also responsible for 58.5 percent of all violent crimes.

Meanwhile, the new German government coalition, which is likely to be the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) is looking to ban “lies,” according to a working paper that emerged from the group “culture and media” between the two parties.

What constitutes ‘lies’ you might ask. Well, Bild newspaper received a copy of the working paper, which outlines “disinformation and fake news” as threats to democracy.

Given that anything that goes against the leftist government narrative is deemed to be ‘disinformation’, you can see where this is headed.

Another part of the paper addresses “hate and agitation.” Again, you can see where that’s heading.

As we previously highlighted, District council member Marie-Thérèse Kaiser of the AfD Party was found guilty of ‘incitement’ by a district court after she posted a link to the government’s own statistics on crimes committed by migrants, specifically rape, and asked why they are so disproportionately high.

Opposition parties on the right, including AfD, have continually argued that the data shows the urgent need for a cap on immigration, and have argued that such ‘integration’ policies are a key component of the coalition government’s race to naturalize millions of foreigners, thereby masking the truth of who is behind the crime surge.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 03:30

Gulf States Refuse To Let US Use Bases, Airspace For Iran Attack

Zero Hedge -

Gulf States Refuse To Let US Use Bases, Airspace For Iran Attack

Via Middle East Eye

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have imposed a ban on US warplanes using their air fields or skies to attack Iran after US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to bomb the country.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have all told the US they will not permit their airspaces or territories to be used as a launchpad against Iran, including for refuelling and rescue operations, a senior US official told Middle East Eye. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning. "They do not want to be drawn in," the official said.

The Gulf states’ intransigence is a setback for the Trump administration, which has hoped to use massive air strikes on the Houthis in Yemen as a show of force to corral Tehran to the negotiating table on a nuclear deal. If Iran realizes the US's oil-rich Arab allies are not on board with strikes, it could harden their negotiating position. 

US Air Force C-17 Globemasters at al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, via AFP

The Gulf states were more accommodating on the Houthi strikes, a former US official briefed on the matter told MEE without divulging which Gulf countries the US used as a launchpad for recent strikes.

The former official, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said the US felt confident it had enough Gulf support, including to launch important recovery flights, if any American aircraft were downed during those operations.

The Trump administration has been courting the Gulf states to come on board as it ramps up a "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran. US defense and intelligence officials met with both their Emirati and Saudi counterparts in March in Washington DC, around the time of the first Houthi strikes.

In quick succession, the Trump administration approved long-stalled arms sales to Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Doha received approval to purchase MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Riyadh secured weapon systems that convert unguided air to ground rockets to precision rockets.

Trump said on Monday that he plans to visit Saudi Arabia and potentially other Gulf states as early as May. 

US turns to Diego Garcia base 

The US has been moving warplanes and cargo to Jordan and Gulf states at the highest level since the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel morphed into a simmering regional conflict.

According to flight tracking data shared on X by open source analysts, the number of US military cargo flights to the region has surged by 50 percent compared to previous highs. In response to the Gulf states' ban, the US has amassed B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the official said.

This is not the first time American war planners leaned on Diego Garcia’s strategic position as an alternative to Gulf air bases. During the late 1990s, when the US was bombing Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and Saudi Arabia imposed a freeze, the US used the Chagos Islands base as a launchpad.

Open-source satellite information provided by Planet Labs earlier this week showed three B-2 bombers on the US base. Other open-source accounts shared imagery suggesting at least five B-2 bombers were on the base.

The Chagos Islands base is within 5,300 kilometres of Iran, well within the B-2 refuelling range of approximately 11,000 kilometres. B-2s are capable of carrying 30,000-pound “bunker-buster” bombs that would be needed to penetrate Iran’s nuclear sites deep underground, known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. Diego Garcia complicates Iran’s power of deterrence against the US.

Iran's tit-for-tat warnings on Gulf

In October 2024, when Iran was girding for Israeli retaliation over its second direct missile attack on Israel, the Islamic Republic warned Gulf states it would bomb their oil facilities in response to an Israeli strike.

Those carefully constructed tit-for-tat warnings allowed Iran to ward off an Israeli strike on their energy facilities at the time. However, if the US uses Diego Garcia to attack Iran, it could avoid the Gulf states' airspace altogether, or at the very least, give Gulf monarchs some plausible deniability about being involved in strikes. That gives Iran fewer options to deter American or Israeli strikes by threatening the Gulf. 

Iran was believed to be behind the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities. But Iran and the Sunni Gulf monarchs have patched up ties since then. The Telegraph reported on Monday that Iranian military commanders were being urged to launch pre-emptive strikes on Diego Garcia.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation For Defence of Democracies think tank in Washington, said on X that while Tehran’s ballistic missiles’ range is publicly capped at 2,000 kilometres, it could hit the island by giving intermediate range ballistic missiles to the Houthis which it may be able to produce, launching Shahed drones from ships or using container-launched cruise missiles that Russia and China produce to attack from the Indian Ocean.

From Pacific to Middle East 

Trump raised the specter of a new Middle East war in an interview on Saturday, threatening "bombing the likes of which they (Iran) have never seen before" if Iran doesn’t agree to a nuclear deal.

Trump is pursuing maximalist demands on Iran’s nuclear programme. National security advisor Mike Waltz said recently that the US wanted to see a “full dismantlement” of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for civilian purposes, has rejected that. The Trump administration’s demands also put the US on a collision course with Russia, with which it is trying to reset relations. Russia built Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, and its state-run atomic energy giant Rosatom says it is in talks to build more.

Regional diplomats and analysts are trying to decipher whether the US military build-up in the Middle East is designed to put teeth behind Trump’s threats or if the US is preparing for a strike. In addition to cargo flights, the US has ordered two aircraft carriers to the Middle East. Notably, the US has moved the carrier Carl Vinson out of the Pacific and to the Middle East, despite heightened tensions around Taiwan.

The US has at least 40,000 troops in the Middle East. The majority are located in the oil-rich Gulf states, where they are based at a string of strategic air and naval bases.

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base is home to the US’s 378th Air Expeditionary Wing, which operates F-16 and F-35 jet fighters. The US operates MQ-9 Reaper drones and jet fighters out of the UAE’s Al Dhafra Air Base. Kuwait’s Ali al-Salem Air Base is home to the 386th Air Expeditionary Wing.

Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base hosts the regional headquarters for US Central Command. It has also hosted some Israeli military officials, MEE has previously reported, but it's not clear if those officials are still in the country. The island kingdom of Bahrain is home to around 9,000 US troops that belong to the headquarters of the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US Fifth Fleet.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 02:45

Zelensky Has No Feasible Alternative To Accepting Trump's Lopsided Resource Deal

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky Has No Feasible Alternative To Accepting Trump's Lopsided Resource Deal

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Trump warned last weekend that Zelensky will have “some problems – big, big problems” if he “tries to back out of the rare earth deal” amidst reports that the latest version of this agreement is very lopsided. It allegedly compels Ukraine to contribute half of its revenue from all resource projects and related infrastructure into a US-controlled investment fund, pay off all US aid from 2022 onward through these means, and give the US the right of first offer on new projects and a veto over resource sales to others.

These tougher terms can be considered punishment for Zelensky picking his infamous fight with Trump and Vance at the White House in late February, but the whole package is being sold to Ukraine as a “security guarantee” from the US. The argument goes that America won’t let Russia threaten these projects, which also include pipelines and ports, thus leading to it at the very least resuming 2023-levels of military-intelligence aid and maybe even directly escalating with Russia to get it into back down.

Ukraine kinda already has such Article 5-like guarantees from the US and other major NATO countries per the bilateral pacts that it clinched with them all throughout last year as explained here, but this proposed arrangement gives the US tangible stakes in deterring or immediately stopping hostilities. The trade-off though is that Ukraine must sacrifice part of its economic sovereignty, which is politically uncomfortable since Zelensky told his compatriots that they’re fighting to preserve its full sovereignty.

If Zelensky agrees to Trump’s lopsided resource deal, then the optics of any ceasefire, armistice, or peace treaty would pair with de facto global recognition of Russian control over the fifth of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory that Kiev still claims as its own to craft the perception of a joint asymmetrical partition. Not only might Zelensky’s political career end if Ukraine was then forced to hold truly free and fair elections, but his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes as this century’s top “freedom fighter” would also be shattered.

He doesn’t have any feasible alternative though since going behind Trump’s back to reach a comparatively better deal with the Brits and/or Europeans wouldn’t result in the “security guarantees” that he’s convinced himself that Ukraine needs in order to compromise with Russia. No one other than the US has any chance of militarily taking on Russia, let alone the political will, and not to mention solely over their investments in a war-torn third country whose resource wealth is reportedly questionable.

If Zelensky keeps dillydallying, then Trump might once again temporarily suspend military and intelligence aid to Ukraine as leverage while tacking on even more punitive terms as revenge. The conflict with Russia would also naturally continue, thus making it impossible for Ukraine to develop its resource industry and related infrastructure even if it reached a deal with someone else. The longer that the conflict lasts, the greater the likelihood that Russia will destroy more of those same assets too.

But if Zelensky accepts the latest deal on offer, then he’d obtain the “security guarantees” that he’s looking for, thus making him more likely to accept a ceasefire and then possibly leading to Trump putting further pressure on Putin to follow suit such as imposing strict secondary sanctions on Russian oil clients. Zelensky would sacrifice his political career, his envisaged legacy in Ukrainians’ eyes, and part of his country’s economic sovereignty, but he’d avert a much worse scenario than if he rejected this deal.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/03/2025 - 02:00

How Globalists Use Crazed Leftists To Piss Off The Populace And Provoke Dictatorship

Zero Hedge -

How Globalists Use Crazed Leftists To Piss Off The Populace And Provoke Dictatorship

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

There is nothing more dangerous than an incomplete picture of history. A hundred years from now, if the powers-that-be have their way, the few children still allowed to be born (due to carbon controls) will be regaled with school lessons about the “Dark Ages of Nationalism” – When humanity was divided into warring states and divided societies that refused to embrace multiculturalism “to the detriment of all”.

They will say that a “great movement” for globalism and wokeness arose and that the courageous revolutionaries fought evil conservative fascists using any means necessary. The political left will be painted as heroes fighting, not for freedom, but for equity and the “greater good”. Western culture, Christianity, meritocracy, moral objectivity, personal liberty and appeals to reason will be demonized as relics of the old world – Monstrous constructs that prevented civilization from attaining true “oneness”.

None of this will be true, of course. The majority of wars are triggered by globalist interests, not nationalists, and the political left is a gaggle of insane zealots hellbent on destroying the west. But, as they say, history is written by the victors.

Many conservatives and liberty advocates still don’t understand that we are in the middle of a 4th Generation conflict. It’s not a political or ideological disagreement, it’s a war; a guerrilla war in which the enemy hides behind civilian status and the legal apparatus.

They use our moral code and our constitutional provisions against us. They find loopholes in the governmental structure and exploit those weaknesses. They turn our society into a living suicide bomb, all while claiming they hold a position of ethical superiority. It has happened before…

If you get the chance I highly recommend readers check out the in-depth investigative analysis of professor and economist Antony Sutton; specifically his book ‘Wall Street And The Bolshevik Revolution’. In it he describes the historical timeline of how Trotsky and Lenin were funded and aided by the elites of the era. The key leaders of the Marxist takeover of Russia could not have done what they did without the help of American and European globalists.

The greater takeaway from Sutton’s revelation is not so much what happened in the past, but what is happening NOW and how it is similar.

The reality of a hidden hand behind the Bolshevik Revolution might sound rather familiar – Today’s DOGE audits have exposed massive bureaucratic manipulation schemes through agencies like USAID to instigate political and social change in America and in foreign nations. These schemes involve vast sums of taxpayer subsidies cycling through globalist controlled NGOs that then use the free cash to push multiculturalism, LGBT propaganda and color revolution.

The agenda to create a one world system and erase traditional western principles is ongoing, handed down from one generation of globalists to the next in a parasitic lineage. The people behind it are moral relativists and Luciferians (they worship themselves and desire to become godlike). They pursue their goals with the fervor of a religious cult. They believe in what they are doing utterly; with as much conviction as you or I hold in our fight for freedom and accountability.

In America the process is beginning to parallel the leftist movements that ended with Marxist terrorism in Europe and the eventual rise of fascism.

After WWI, leftists engaged in a hurricane of disruption tactics including industrial sabotage, mob intimidation, politically motivated worker strikes, terror attacks, bombings, assassinations, etc. Modern day academics try to paint these tactics as heroic, or at the very least they claim that the actions of Marxists had nothing to do with the European embrace of fascism. This is a lie.

It was, in fact, the constant psychological attacks, economic attacks and direct attacks by far-left groups that made fascism so appealing to common Europeans.  Ernst Thalmann, the Stalin-backed leader of the far-left during the last days of Weimar Germany, came to the conclusion that the moderate left was a greater threat than the Nazis.  The communists viewed centrist liberals as an impediment to their efforts, much like the woke leftist of today treat moderates as heretics instead of allies.  They alienated everybody and made everyone want to work with the fascists.

Of course, Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini BOTH openly venerated Karl Marx and his socialist system of governance. Fascism was nothing more than a different flavor of leftist tyranny posing as a solution to leftist tyranny. But for Europeans tired after years of societal division and constant unrest, the fascist message of order was enticing.

Antony Sutton outlines this dichotomy and how globalists helped the Nazis rise to power in his book ‘Wall Street And The Rise Of The Third Reich’.

In other words, the globalists created a Marxist terror campaign across Europe and then used it to drive the public into the arms of another socialist empire in the form of The Third Reich.

In Germany, people supported fascism because they sought to drive out and eliminate the social rot created by Bolshevik relativism (very similar to the rot we see in America today). For instance, sexual degeneracy was rampant in Germany after WWI. The very first transgender clinic was founded in Berlin in 1919. The Marxists lobbied for the legalization of abortion in order to garner more female support.

The rise of the “sexual reformation” was initiated and the 1920s equivalent of the “Gay Pride” movement was born. Pedophiles began to creep out of the woodwork – The concept of underage prostitution and “rent boys” was a notable problem in Berlin.

Questions of personal liberty are fair to argue. But without moderation, psycho-sexual obsessions embraced on a large scale can trigger social collapse. The true intent of any sexual reformation is to normalize cultural and psychological outliers. Weimar Germany in the 1920s was very much like America in the 2020s in this way.

Then there was hyperinflation, economic hardship and vying political factions that drove fear into common Germans. The fascists offered a clear vision, they offered economic prosperity, they offered domestic peace, they offered an end to the morally bankrupt madness of the left, and the public jumped at the chance. It was not a good choice, but it was better to them than allowing a communist takeover.

The globalists have a tendency to attack a target population from two sides, using chaos they control, and then order they control. Marxism plays the role of chaos, and fascism plays the role of order.

Most of us are familiar with the idea of the Hegelian Dialectic. However, I would argue that the situation is much more complex today than it has ever been. There is only one true option; order is the obvious choice. Leftists and globalists must be removed from power.

But how do we avoid doing what the Germans did? How do we remove the leftist threat without diving headfirst into our own brand of totalitarianism? It might not be possible.

As I warned in my article ‘Terror Attacks Kick Off In 2025 – It’s Only Going To Get Worse So Be Prepared’, published in January, there is now a rising tide of leftist sabotage. Today, activists across the country are using property destruction for intimidation. It’s not going to stop there. This is just the first phase.

There’s the judicial overreach by activist judges to thwart any cuts to the bureaucracy, and the attempts to stop deportations of illegals. There’s steady online threats of assassination and calls for alliances with foreign adversaries and terror groups. Just be ready for bombings, shootings and the rampaging mobs because that’s all coming this summer, I have no doubt.

The risk of martial law being declared is very high if things go the way I suspect they will go, and a majority of the US public will applaud the idea. Donald Trump has taken measures to follow through on every one of his campaign promises so far and I believe that this has earned him the benefit of the doubt. However, if he did call for martial law under the circumstances I describe to expedite matters, conservatives would be falling into a classic government power trap.

Once that door is opened it will be hard to reverse matters, and there’s no guarantee that the right wing will be in control of the machine as it shifts from checks and balances into a streamlined top down autocracy. We almost fell off that cliff under the Biden Administration during covid and it’s a miracle the country is still in one piece.

The scary thing is, beyond the hypothetical risks involved, it’s difficult to argue that martial law is unreasonable. The leftists are making it very hard for us to want to fight for their liberty, and frankly most conservatives would not care if they were shipped off to an isolated island somewhere to cannibalize each other. If you examine how these activists rationalize their violence on social media, one can only conclude that they need to be locked up or booted out of the country. They’re not redeemable.

Their actions are designed to elicit a call of force from conservatives. Then the activists rush to to the global stage and scream “You see! The right wingers really are the fascists we said they were!” The mere act of applying law and order becomes “tyranny” by the definition of the progressives.

In the meantime, a lot of libertarians are still out there in the wilderness searching for a perfect solution in which no one’s rights are stepped on and all viewpoints are respected. I’ve accepted that this is not going to happen. There is no silver bullet, no magically pure society in which everyone leaves everyone else alone. In a war, someone’s rights are going out the window.

It’s a zero sum game for conservatives because the more we accommodate the political left and treat them like fellow citizens rather than an enemy insurgency, the more the US will degrade into chaos. If we respond to them as enemies, crushing them like the bugs they are, then we become the bad guys and potentially welcome in a level of government power that could hurt us all in the end.

My solution is an ugly one and it’s something that most conservative commentators don’t want to touch with a ten foot pole: Instead of relying on government power to stop the political left and the globalists, common Americans should organize and handle the problem independently. This removes the danger of government overreach and constitutional trespass.

The average American is not limited by the constitution, the government is. We don’t have to respect the legal rights of NGOs. We don’t have to give leeway to leftist rioters because we’re afraid of political optics. We don’t have to let globalists operate in the US with impunity and without fear. Keep in mind that the US was NOT founded as a libertine nation where anything goes.

The Founders believed in revolution against tyranny, not revolution against morality. They believed in freedom, as long as it’s freedom WITH responsibility. They believed in rules and order, not anarchy. There’s no way on Earth they would have tolerated leftist and globalist machinations. Neither should we.

When we do act, we have to make sure we don’t create a governmental Golem that ultimately turns on us.

*  *  *

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Click picture, check out knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 23:25

Supreme Court Upholds Biden-Era Rule On Regulation Of "Ghost Guns"

Zero Hedge -

Supreme Court Upholds Biden-Era Rule On Regulation Of "Ghost Guns"

Via American Greatness,

The U.S. Supreme Court has upheld a Biden administration rule on federal regulation of so-called “ghost guns” which are unserialized parts or kits that can be assembled into completed firearms.

The 7-2 decision on Wednesday was written by Justice Neil Gorsuch and upholds the rule for continued regulation by the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) as well as opening the door to requiring background checks and age verification in order to purchase the kits.

Gun control advocates and regulators have been strongly opposed to the kits, which some have dubbed as “ghost guns” due to the fact that they allowed buyers to complete the assembly of the firearm at home without having to make the purchase through a federally licensed dealer.

Supporters of gun control have claimed that the firearms are nearly untraceable, making it more difficult for law enforcement to connect them to a specific individual.

In the ruling, Gorsuch wrote, “Some home hobbyists enjoy assembling them. But criminals also find them attractive.”

According to the Associated Press, the rule passed under the Biden administration requires companies to treat the kits like other firearms by adding serial numbers, running background checks and verifying that buyers are age 21 or older.

Sellers of the parts kits had challenged the rule, arguing that a collection of parts was not a firearm and therefore was not subject to the Gun Control Act of 1968.

The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals based in Louisiana agreed with them and struck down the ATF ghost gun rule.

Today’s ruling overturned that 5th Circuit decision.

Second Amendment advocates are expressing disappointment at the decision but also acknowledge that in the era of 3D printing, federal regulators are facing an increasingly impossible task when it comes to gun control.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 21:45

Washington Sheriff Won't Allow Non-Citizens To Work As Police Officers, Despite Political Pressure

Zero Hedge -

Washington Sheriff Won't Allow Non-Citizens To Work As Police Officers, Despite Political Pressure

A state county sheriff in Washington may be the only person left in the state with common sense. 

He is rejecting a new state senate bill that would allow non-citizens to serve in public roles such as police officers, judges, and teachers, according to Breitbart.

Sheriff Keith Swank

Despite unanimous support in the legislature, Pierce County Sheriff Keith Swank said he won’t comply. “I have a problem with non-citizens being cops and arresting our citizens in Pierce County. Therefore, we’re not going to hire non-citizens for the Pierce County Sheriff’s Office,” he told KIRO-TV.

Washington’s SB5068, which would allow non-citizens with federal work authorization—including DACA recipients—to serve as police, judges, and other public officials, passed the state senate unanimously in February.

All 30 Democrats backed it, but notably, so did all 19 Republicans.

Supporters argue there’s no difference between non-citizens in the military and in law enforcement, but Sheriff Keith Swank disagrees.

[ZH: Aaaand of course they locked down their accout]

“There’s a difference between law enforcement and the military. In law enforcement, we arrest people. We take away their constitutional rights. We lock them up in jail. We don’t use our military to do that,” he said.

Legislators claim the bill addresses Washington’s police shortage, but Swank isn’t buying it.

“The real problem is the reason it’s hard to hire people in Washington State… Cops don’t want to work here when they’re afraid to do something they might be put in prison for,” he said. The bill passed out of a House committee 6–3 and is headed for a full House vote.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 21:20

Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers "Declaration Of Economic Independence"

Zero Hedge -

Futures Tumble As President Trump Delivers "Declaration Of Economic Independence"

Update (1630ET): “Well we have some very, very good news today,” Trump began his address exclaiming that “This is Liberation Day.”

“April 2, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began to make America wealthy again,” Trump says.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. American steel workers, auto workers, farmers and skilled craftsmen -- we have a lot of them here with us today. They really suffered gravely.”

“In a few moments, I will sign a historic Executive Order, reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. Can’t get any simpler than that.”

Trump lays out his theory that tariffs will bring back a “golden age” for the US, a phrase he also used in his inaugural address:

“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already. We will supercharge our domestic industrial base.”

Trump says the reciprocal tariffs will bring “stronger competition and lower prices for consumers” in the US.

Finally, Trump announces his tariff plan details as a "Declaration Of Economic Independence"

Specifically, Trump announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% for all countries (below the 15% consensus and 20% worst case) beginning April 5th.

Trump confirmed the 25% tariff on all auto imports.

BUT, specific reciprocal tariffs for 'bad actors' starting on April 9th.

Additionally, Trump said they will not be full reciprocal tariffs, then held a chart up showing the individual nation (trade-weighted average) tariff levels:

Here is the full list:

Here are some specifics:

  • China: 34% (which is on top of the current 20% tariff, meaning a total 54% tariff)

  • EU: 20%

  • Japan: 24%

  • UK: 10%

  • South Korea: 25%

  • Thailand: 36%

  • Switzerland: 31%

  • Taiwan: 32%

  • Malaysia: 24%

Here are the hardest hit nations:

  • Iraq 39%

  • Mauritius 40%

  • Syria 41%

  • Falkland Islands 41%

  • Vietnam: 46%

  • Madagascar 47%

  • Laos 48%

  • Cambodia 49%

  • Lesotho 50%

  • Saint Pierre & Miquelon 50%

Mexico and Canada are not on the list as US will continue to exempt USMCA-compliant goods. 

For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order. This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff. In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders are terminated, USMCA compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff.

The Loonie and the Peso rallied on the news...

Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff.

These include: 

(1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b);

(2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs;

(3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles;

(4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; 

(5) bullion; and 

(6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States.

Initially markets heard Trump's comments as 'better than expected' and futures spiked on the news, but then as he showed the chart of specific tariffs, futures plunged...

Treasury yields also tumbled, erasing the day's spike higher...

“If you want your tariff rate to be zero, then you build your product right here in America, because there is no tariff if you build your plant, your product in America,” Trump said, concluding:

“Likewise to all of the foreign presidents, prime ministers, kings, queens, ambassadors and everyone else who will soon be calling to ask for exemptions from these tariffs, I say terminate your own tariffs, drop your barriers, don’t manipulate your currencies."

The White House issued a full Fact Sheet here...

“These tariffs will remain in effect until such a time as President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.”

And cue the negotiations...

Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson, suggests this is the opening salvo for negotiations and the question is how much economic pain Trump is willing to tolerate:

“Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream ‘negotiation tactic,’ which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future. Fortunately, this means there’s substantial room for lower tariffs from here, albeit with a 10% baseline in place. We’ve seen the administration have a surprisingly high tolerance for market pain, now the big question is how much tolerance it has for true economic pain as negotiations unfold.”

Treasury Secretary Bessent appeared on Bloomberg TV with a simple message to the world: Don’t panic, don’t retaliate

“As long as you don’t retaliate, this is the high end of the number,” he says.

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"This is the moment... this is the time..." Trump's Jekyll & Hyde tariff-ing plans are finally to be announced ("We are going to be very nice by comparison to what they were" vs “We’ve been taken advantage of for 40 years, maybe more, and it’s just not going to happen anymore.")

As Trump discusses reciprocal tariffs (and the legacy media claims he is 'punishing allies') keep this chart in mind - does that seem like 'free trade'?

The three main things to watch for when Trump starts speaking are as follows (h/t Goldman Sachs' Brian Garrett)

  • What is the full list of countries included in the measures (19 is bogey)

  • What is the magnitude for average reciprocal tariff (GS econ expects avg 15% when weighted by US imports – this would be a negative surprise)

  • Confirmation of the planned timeline for implementation (the shorter the period, the more hawkish the read thru - and for now 'immediate effect' is expected)

Watch President Trump deliver his remarks in his 'Make America Wealth Again' event and answer questions here (due to start at 1600ET):

* * *

Update (0805ET): As the clock ticks down to today's 4pm announcement of "across the board" tariffs on a subset of nations, speculation about the size and scope of the new rules is rife with many nations already threatening "proportionate" responses:

  • USTR reportedly prepares a new tariff option for US President Trump which is "an across-the-board tariff on a subset of nations that likely would not be as high as the 20% universal tariff option", according to WSJ.

  • US President Trump's tariff plans are "coming down to the wire" with his team reportedly still finalising the size and scope of the new levies, according to Bloomberg.

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent told lawmakers that Wednesday's tariffs are a 'cap', according to a CNBC reporter cited by Reuters.

  • On UK-US tariffs, "Sounds like any hopes of a last-ditch concession from Donald Trump ahead of his tariffs announcement are fading", according to Times' Swinford; although a deal could be signed as soon as next week "Keir Starmer is not planning to speak to him today, but there are hopes that the economic deal giving Britain a carve-out can be signed as soon as next week. Sources talking about 'days or weeks'" "But in truth No 10 doesn't know what Trump is planning or when concessions could be made. All deeply uncertain this morning".

  • Canada is to avoid counter-tariffs that risk Canadian jobs and price hikes and it won't impose retaliation tariffs on most US food and other basic necessities, according to the Globe and Mail citing two federal trade advisers.

  • Thai Commerce Ministry said Thai semiconductors may face 25% US tariffs and noted that Thai tariffs are 11% higher than US tariffs, while it added Thailand may see an impact of USD 7bln-8bln from US reciprocal tariffs but announced it will increase imports of US goods and plans tariff cuts for US products.

  • French Industry Minister reaffirms that Europe will respond to Trump tariffs in a proportionate manner; says Europe must show strength and be less naive

The irony, of course, is that if Trump unveils 'reciprocal' tariffs - mirroring the tariffs being put on US exports - any retaliatory response by a foreign nation cannot be proportionate by its nature. Any response is escalatory as the US is merely 'catching up' to the tariffs being put on its own goods.

Bloomberg reports that Trump is considering three options:

1) a blanket 20% tariff on all imports; 

2) a tiered system with three different rate levels; 

3) a country-by-country rate model.

White House spokesperson Leavitt said new duties are effective immediately which feels less ideal vs a delayed start (no time for negotiations).

*  *  *

Update  (8:45pm ET): With just hours to go until Trump's "Liberation day" announcement, things remain... fluid.

  • Bloomberg reports that Trump’s deliberations over his plans to impose reciprocal tariffs are coming down to the wire, with his team said to be still finalizing the size and scope of the new levies he is slated to unveil on Wednesday afternoon. As a reminder, Peter Navarro said that Trump wants to raise $700 billion annually in tariff revenue.

  • In meetings on Tuesday, Trump’s team continued to hash out their options ahead of a Rose Garden event scheduled to begin as US markets close at 4 p.m. on Wednesday. 

  • The White House has not reached a firm decision on their tariff plan, even though Trump himself said earlier in the week that he had “settled” on an approach.

  • Several proposals are said to be under consideration, including a tiered tariff system with a set of flat rates for countries, as well as a more customized reciprocal plan. 

    • Under the first option, countries would see their goods face levies at either a 10% or 20% rate depending on their tariff and non-tariff barriers on US goods.

    • Under the two-tiered approach, the highest levies would be applied to the countries perceived as the biggest offenders, both in terms of true tariffs as well as easily quantifiable non-tariff measures that act to deter US imports. Trump’s White House this week has complained about the trade practices of the EU, Japan, India and Canada, for example.

  • Another approach would see the US applying individualized reciprocal rates, tailored to countries based on their existing levies and non-tariff barriers. This approach was publicly signaled for weeks but some recent deliberations suggest it’s no longer the main focus. 

  • There’s also been discussion of a return to Trump’s original proposal: a flat global tariff, which would apply evenly to trillions of imports. And the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was considering a more targeted plan that would apply a tariff of less than 20% to a narrower section of countries.

  • With less than 24 hours to go until Trump’s announcement, companies, countries and the lobbyists paid to influence the president’s agenda tried to find out final details of the plan, only to learn there aren't any final details yet. 

  • Amid the continuing barrage of trial balloons, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump aides were studying a more targeted option, while Fox News said Tuesday that Trump was also still considering a flat 20% global tariff.

  • Amid all the speculation, the White House on Tuesday stayed silent on the details of Trump’s plan, ahead of the president’s formal announcement, while Leavitt told reporters on Tuesday that Trump was “with his trade and tariff team right now perfecting it to make sure this is a perfect deal for the American people and the American worker.”

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers that the tariffs would be a cap. reflecting the highest levels they’ll go, with countries then able to take steps to bring rates down, 

  • Representative Kevin Hern, an Oklahoma Republican, told CNBC. Earlier Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the tariffs would take immediate effect but that Trump was open to subsequent negotiation. “Certainly, the president is always up to take a phone call, always up for a good negotiation,” she said.

  • The late-hour movement signaled that the scope and details of the long-promised announcement are shifting even as the pageantry of the event — dubbed a “Make America Wealthy Again” celebration — comes into focus.

Trump said Monday he had made a decision “actually a long time ago,” but didn’t reveal it. Leavitt reiterated that claim, though the White House declined to weigh in on various proposals said to be under consideration. A spokesman did not immediately reply to requests for further comment Tuesday.

Other key questions swirl, like the fate of tariffs already applied to China, Canada and Mexico, and clawed back partially for the latter two. The White House has not said whether those would be replaced by Trump’s Wednesday announcement, or whether his move to exempt goods traded under the continental trade pact might also be extended somehow to the new levies. The president has also promised coming tariffs on key sectors including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber.

* * * * *

There is just over 24 hours left until President Trump unveils the specifics of his "Liberation day" from global trade barriers at 3pm on Wednesday, and with markets obsessing over what the president will and will not say, we are starting a rolling blog which will be updated for all major developments. 

We begin with the known-knowns ahead of tomorrow's big reveal:

  • Reciprocal Tariffs – President Trump said on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce will include all nations, not just a smaller group of 10-15 countries with the largest trade imbalances. The White House has yet to outline what tariffs are coming up, how these will be calculated or what countries will need to do to secure exemptions. The President also mentioned that these tariffs will account for other countries’ non-tariff barriers, though he has also not went into detail on how these calculations will be conducted. Regarding exemptions, President Trump said in an interview with Newsmax that he plans to limit exceptions – though the mention of potentially giving a lot of countries “breaks” last Monday at the White House has led to a steam of talks with the US (EU, India among the names of countries mentioned) regarding concessions. One potential twist is that overnight we got a USTR trade barrier report (not the official tariffs but its lists hundred of barriers to US exports) where this part stands out: “the USTR report did not specify VATs as trade barriers in its discussion of EU policies, focusing instead on digital services taxes and the bloc's new carbon border adjustment mechanism.” (RTRS) According to Goldman, goal posts have moved rapidly to 15%+ on EU tariffs and yesterday's discussions were around the rather substantial tail risk that reciprocal VAT tariffs would mean (38%). Comments from Trump suggest a lighter touch on tariffs although without context it’s unclear what this might mean. Goldman concludes that "with risk premia having been built up the default direction will be a relief rally/vol compression (the sustainability of which will be more about US economy)."
     
  • Automobile Tariffs – As per the White House Fact Sheet, the 25% tariff will be applied to imported passenger vehicles (sedans, SUVs, crossovers, minivans, cargo vans) and light trucks, as well as key automobile parts (engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components), with processes to expand tariffs on additional parts if necessary. Importers of automobiles under the USMCA will be given the opportunity to certify their U.S. content and systems will be implemented such that the 25% tariff will only apply to the value of their non-U.S. content. Tariffs on vehicles are set to take effect on 3Apr and certain auto parts no later than 3May.
     
  • Tariffs on countries importing Venuzuelan Oil – President Trump has issued an executive order declaring that any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on trades with the U.S., and also extended a deadline (27 May) for Chevron to wind down operations. China, Spain, Brazil, Turkey, India, Italy, Cuba are among the countries that could be affected by this. In particular, China is Venezuela’s largest oil buyer (~55%). Goldman's research desk highlights that this will pose a significant risk for China – if this was to materialize, it will raise the total US effective tariff rate on China close to 60%.
     
  • Sectoral Tariffs – President Trump also plans to impose tax additional tariffs to target specific industries including pharmaceutical drugs, copper and lumber.

LATEST NEWS:

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said President Trump will announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST on Wednesday.
  • White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated there will be a Rose Garden event on Wednesday for the Trump tariff plan and that Trump is committed to sectoral tariffs.
  • White House spokesperson said no exemptions at this time when asked about tariff exemptions for farmers and any country that has treated the US unfairly should expect to receive a tariff.
  • White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% (prev. touted 15%) on at least most imports to the United States, according to WaPo sources. Several options are on the table and no final decision has been made. One option would raise import duties on products from virtually every country, rejecting more targeted approaches. If combined with additional tariffs on sectors such as automobile and pharmaceutical imports, raise more than USD 6tln. Administration officials are also discussing using this revenue to finance a tax rebate or dividend payment to most Americans; planning is "highly preliminary". The White House is also still considering an order that would apply a different tariff rate to individual countries.
  • US President Trump said we will see tariff details maybe Tuesday night or on Wednesday which are going to be nice in comparison to other countries and in some cases, they may be substantially lower. Trump also stated that many countries have been looting the US and they will stop that on April 2nd, as well as noted there will be investments worth USD 5tln in the US. Furthermore, he stated that TikTok is not tied to a larger tariff deal but could be.
  • US President Trump is said to be still deciding which plan he will take for reciprocal tariffs and has been presented with "multiple" tariff plans, according to administration sources cited by FBN's Lawrence, while sources said Trump will likely not make the decision on which plan until right before April 2nd or on that morning.

Reminder:

  • Weekend reports suggested US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post.
  • It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.

Europe:

  • EU is mulling targeting big US tech firms in response to Trump tariffs, via WaPo citing sources/officials; one official suggested that the bloc could unite on "some partial measures against American services".
  • France is reportedly pushing for a tougher response which includes digital services.
  • Other nations such as Italy remain opposed believing it will only cause further US escalation.
  • "European officials cautioned that there is no agreed-on hit list of digital services."
  • "European officials concede that measures against companies like Google (GOOGL) or Meta (META) could escalate the trade war, but they say Trump has shifted the goalposts."
  • "European officials are also discussing possible trade concessions"; could be willing to reverse some of the countermeasures announced after the US' aluminium/steel tariffs.
  • WaPo reminds us that the bloc has already signalled a willingness to reduce the 10% tariff on US autos and increase the purchase of US-made LNG.

MORGAN STANLEY ON THE RECIPROCITY PRINCIPLE (KEY TAKEAWAYS)

  • Tariffs appear likely to head higher, on a number of trading partners: The Trump administration said it plans to increase tariff levels after taking into account three key factors to rectify what it perceives as unfair trade relationships: 1) product-level tariff differentials; 2) VAT differentials; and 3) a subjective "unfair trading practices." We expect that the numbers revealed as a product of that assessment on April 2 will likely be a maximalist starting point, rather than ending point, for tariff levels.
  • April 2 should provide some clarity on the path, but we expect that not all of our questions will be answered by then: Two principles guide our rationale: The comprehensive review promised by the president is broad and complex, requiring months of investigation on a product-by-product basis, and we expect negotiations can potentially reduce levels from the stated starting point when this review concludes. Hence, April 2 is more likely a starting point than an ending point for implementation.
  • Key products in the EU, as well as broader Chinese imports, are likely to see increases...: When evaluating imports across the country-level criteria the administration has laid out as well as where the largest tariff differentials are, certain sectors stand out in particular, like EU autos. 
  •  ...While Mexico, Canada, and certain products from countries in the EU appear more likely to avoid tariffs through negotiation. We see potential for more negotiation with countries that score low across the metrics that the administration has cited as important inputs to that April 2 evaluation, as well as those that Trump has signaled a willingness to negotiate with or countries for which tariffs are explicitly tied to a policy goal (like immigration/fentanyl).
  • Importantly, Morgan Stanley has low conviction in this path, and sees several plausible alternatives. More aggressive, and faster, tariff implementation is possible, as well as the inverse, given the president's wide discretion and authority on this matter.

Mapping out current & expected tariffs on two vectors: relative level of conviction, and expected duration/potential for an off-ramp

  • Morgan Stanley incorporates "reciprocal tariffs" into that base case: The administration has stated it plans to review tariff rates on a country-by-country basis, taking into account a variety of other trade-related factors (some more subjective than others), culminating in an aggregate number (or tariff level) that Commerce Secretary Lutnick intends to present to the president April 1, to be publicly released on April 2. This to us signals that the administration is planning to engage in a broad-based retooling of its trading relationships, grounded in matching tariff rates but incorporating a number of other factors like existing trade deficit, VAT differentials, and non-tariff barriers to trade (including subsidies). 
  • Hence, while the short-term policy goals might align with one of the two objectives we lay out, undertaking a country-by-country review of existing trade relationships grounded in tariff reciprocity reflects, in our view, a longer-term commitment to de-risking and retooling trade policy.
  • Various third parties have assessed how high tariffs could go as a result of this review: the Yale Budget Lab, for example, sees the policy change resulting in an incremental 13ppt hike to tariffs on China vs. 16ppt on Mexico and 17ppt on India. Given the relatively high VAT in Europe, the tariff rate goes up by even more in the UK, Denmark/Sweden, and Hungary: 20ppt, 25ppt, and 27ppt, respectively.

More in the full Morgan Stanley reciprocity analysis available here to pro subs.

JPM TARIFF SCENARIO ANALYSIS

  • 10% TARIFF – assuming a 10% blanket tariff that also cancels/replaces Can/Mexico tariffs but not China: SPX +2 - +2.5%. 10Y yield higher by ~10bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.06 – 1.07 (currently 1.08).
  • 25% TARIFF – SPX falls 1.25% - 1.75%. 10Y yield declines 12-14bps. EUR/USD lower as USD behaves as a safety haven, with EUR/USD falling to 1.03 – 1.05
  • 35% TARIFF – SPX falls 2% - 3%. 10Y yield falls 20bps. EUR/USD falls to 1.01 – 1.03.

On EU sectors vs. tariffs, JPM expect:

  • EU Pharma: Potential US tariffs expected to have a manageable impact, though many questions remain unanswered around key details.
  • Global Spirits: Financial impact likely to be substantial, ranging JPME 8-48% on annual EBIT. Believe mitigation through pricing will be limited, given sector has already derated YTD < asymmetric risk rewards if tariffs delayed/scrapped.
  • EU Autos: If tariffs go ahead, on avg. c. 25% earnings cut to its FY25 estimates for German OEMs and Stellantis. JPM add this is the lower bound of impact. Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish.

Market Impact

  • WHAT DOES A GOOD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A low (10% or less) blanket tariff that does not include VAT with a stated willingness to discuss sectoral tariffs which include 25% on aluminum/steel, 25% on Autos, 200% on Champagne/wine from the EU, and potentially 25% on Chips and Pharmaceuticals. Further, avoiding tariffs on shipping vessels would be a positive.
  • WHAT DOES A BAD OUTCOME LOOK LIKE – A higher than expected blanket tariff, which includes VAT, plus additional sectoral tariffs. Further, any bans on sales or the implementation of fines/tariffs on shipping vessels would be a materially worse outcome, e.g., a full ban on chip sales to China. According to Bloomberg, NVDA received ~17% of its FY24 revenue from China.

Likely Tariff Levels (per JPMorgan)

  • CANADA / MEXICO – JPM does not think that we see additional tariffs mentioned, instead sticking with the 25% tariffs that were delayed.
  • CHINA – currently, the tariff level is 20% but given that China consumes Venezuelan oil, that adds another 25%. A deal on TikTok could reduce these levels, but that announcement may be on/before the current April 5 deadline to sell or restrict TikTok.
  • EU – while Trump had mentioned 25%, Bloomberg reported last week that the EU planned concessions for Trump so this could mean a lower rate in the 10% - 15% range.
  • JAPAN – given the willingness to negotiation and to add further investment in the US, it seems possible that Japan receives a lower rate, perhaps lower than the EU, say 10%.

JPM's proposed Monetization Menu:

  • Country-Level: we look at Australia, Japan, and the UK as being relative safety havens. China may work, too, given the potential to add fiscal stimulus but that is a lower conviction long.
  • US Sector Level: Energy and Utilities (ex-AI plays) are the two best longs and look for Lower-Income Discretionary and higher beta TMT plays as being among the more consensus shorts. Separately, parts of Fins (GSIBs, Insurance, Payment Processors) could be safety havens.
  • FICC: Look for Credit to outperform Equities on the move lower. We like precious metals, crude, and natgas as longs.

Overall, JPM remain tactically bearish: 

  • "Policy uncertainty is the dominant factor in the markets and that neither the Trump Put nor Fed Put activate in the near-term." 
  • Further, they see downward pressure on the soft economic data though hard data is likely to remain resilient, potentially putting a floor on the next US downdraft. 
  • That said, one potential event that could break the bearish outlook is the announcement of a trade deal, or framework of one, with a G7 country ahead of the announcement, e.g. US/UK deal could allow the market to look through tariffs on places such as the EU and/or Japan.

More in the full JPMorgan secnario analysis available here to pro subs.

WEEKEND HEADLINES

US Broader Tariffs

  • US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd and reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports, according to Washington Post. It was also noted that the option viewed as most likely, publicly outlined by Treasury Secretary Bessent this month, would set tariffs on products from the 15% of countries the administration deems the worst US trading partners which account for almost 90% of imports.
  • US President Trump said he will hit essentially all countries that they're talking about with tariffs this week and commented that there will be a deal on TikTok before the deadline, according to Reuters.
  • US President Trump’s closest allies including Vice President Vance, Chief of Staff Wiles and cabinet officials have privately indicated they are unsure exactly what President Trump will do during the April 2nd announcement of global tariffs, according to Politico.

US Auto Tariffs

  • US President Trump’s recent 25% auto tariff announcement made no mention of USMCA trade deal side letters shielding Canada and Mexico from potential auto tariffs which showed Canada and Mexico were each granted annual duty-free import quotas of 2.6mln cars and unlimited light trucks if Trump imposed global tariffs. Furthermore, Canada said it fully expects the US to honor the 2018 tariff pledges and it reserves the right to take retaliatory measures, while Mexico is evaluating the legal implications of the agreement on Trump's ‘Section 232’ auto tariff probe.
  • US President Trump’s Trade Adviser Navarro said auto tariffs will raise about $100BN and the other tariffs are to raise about $600BN a year, according to a Fox interview.

UK

  • UK PM Starmer spoke with US President Trump on Sunday evening in which they discussed productive negotiations between their respective teams on a UK-US economic prosperity deal and agreed that these will continue at pace this week. It was also reported that UK Home Secretary Cooper refused to rule out retaliating to US tariffs on cars and steel, according to Bloomberg.

France

  • French Ministry of Foreign Trade said France and Europe will defend their businesses, consumers and values, while it added that US interference in the inclusion policies of French companies is unacceptable.
  • French Commerce Minister reiterated that France would implement reciprocal tariffs if the US goes ahead with its tariff measures this week. Hoping to avoid a trade war. The Minister intends to have talks with the US Embassy in Paris to voice opposition to the US' order for French firms to comply with a diversity band.

Germany

  • German Chancellor Scholz said they stand by Canada’s side and that Canada is not a state that belongs to anyone else, while he added that Europe’s goal is cooperation but the EU will respond as one if the US leaves them with no choice such as with tariffs on steel and aluminium.

China

  • China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unreasonable and harm global markets. (Comments made in China's Tuesday session).

LatAm

  • Brazil’s President Lula said he will negotiate on tariffs before retaliating, according to Bloomberg. It was also reported that Brazil’s Finance Minister Haddad said the country is in a privileged position to withstand the trade war with the commodity exporter’s links to China, the US and the EU to shield it from Drotectionism. accordina to FT

OTHER RECENT HEADLINES

28th March

  • EU plans concessions for Trump after reciprocal tariffs hit, according to Bloomberg sources
  • Chinese State Media says China will "certainly respond with countermeasures if the US insists on harming China's interests regarding the April 2nd tariffs"; if they want to discuss cooperation with China, mutual respect is a prerequisite.
  • US President Trump and Canada PM Camey held a very constructive phone call, according to both sides; Camey told Trump he will implement retaliatory tariffs.
  • US President Trump says will be announcing pharma tariffs soon; is willing to make deals on tariffs, deals on averting auto tariffs would come later.

27th March

  • US President Trump posted on Truth "If the European Union works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale Tariffs, far larger than currently planned, will be placed on them both"
  • Canadian PM Carney says its response to these latest tariffs is to fight; they will fight the US tariffs with retaliatory trade actions of its own; clear US is no longer a reliable partner

26th March

  • US President Trump may implement copper tariffs within weeks, according to Bloomberg
  • The US will reportedly not take all non-tariff barriers (e g. VAT) in determining reciprocal Tariff rates, according to CNBC
  • EU Top Trade Negotiator Sefcovic expects US President Trump to hit the bloc with tariffs of about 20% next week, via FT
  • EU expects Trump to set flat, double-digit tariff on April 2nd, according to Politico; According to two diplomats, suggested the tariff rate applied to the EU could be as high as 20 or 25%
  • US President Trump considers more limited tariff plans, automotive tariffs could be narrowed and reciprocal tariffs lowered in latest administration proposals, via WSJ
  • US President Trump announces to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the US, while he said they will be doing tariffs on pharmaceuticals and tariffs on lumber
  • China's Vice Premier He Lifeng spoke with USTR's Greer by video call, via Xinhua; Both sides had candid and in depth exchange of views on economy and trade. China expressed solemn concerns on US tariffs and planned reciprocal tariffs.
  • 25th March
  • India is reportedly open to cutting tariffs on over half of US imports, worth USD 23bln, via Reuters citing sources; open to cutting tariffs to as low as 0 from a 5- 30% range on 55% of US imports
  • India proposes to remove the 6% tariff imposed on online advertisement services offered by companies such as Google (GOOG) and Meta (META), known widely as the Google tax, from April 1st which is a day before Trump's reciprocal tariffs take effect.
  • US President Trump considers a two-step tariff regime on April 2nd, according to FT; Possible phased approach to new US levies reflects debate over trade strategy within administration.
  • US President Trump says he has April 2nd tariffs set, and he has been fair to countries that abused US for many decades

24th March:

  • Trump implements secondary tariff on Venezuela; anyone who buys oil/gas from Venezuela will face an additional 25% tariff on all US trade.
  • US President Trump says they will be announcing tariffs on autos, aluminium and pharmaceuticals in the very near future.
  • Trump says he will announce additional tariffs over the next few days on autos, lumber, and chips
  • Trump says he may give a lot of countries breaks on tariffs.

22nd March (weekend)

  • President Donald Trump's coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened, aides and allies say, a potential relief for markets gripped by anxiety about an all-out tariff war. (Bloomberg)

21st March

  • France reportedly to float using EU's most powerful trade tool on US, according to Bloomberg
  • US President Trump says there will be flexibility on tariffs, basically it's reciprocal; they can't be expected to carry Canada.
  • UK government reportedly considering plans to reduce or even abolish its digital services tax before April 2nd, via Bloomberg.

20th March

  • US President Trump says he believes India is probably going to be lowering tariffs substantially but on April 2nd, we will be charging them the same tariffs they charge us
  • EU's Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says the Commission is considering delaying first set of counter-tariffs against the US to mid-April

19th March

  • US President Trump's aides are planning new tariffs on “trillions" more in imports on April 2nd, according to WaPo
  • EU is reportedly to tighten steel import quotas as of April 1st, via Reuters citing sources; to reduce inflows by 15%

18th March

  • US President Trump's team reportedly explored a simplified plan for reciprocal tariffs in which they recently debated sorting trading partners into one of three tiers instead of equalising tariff rates with every nation, according to WSJ

17th March:

  • US President Trump says he has no intention of creating exemptions on steel and aluminium tariffs, while he adds reciprocal tariffs will happen on April 2nd
  • USTR's Greer imposes policy process on reciprocal tariff plan; President Trump's top trade negotiator is attempting to inject order into sweeping new tariffs expected next month, after previous announcements roiled markets and fueled business uncertainty
  • India reportedly weighs lower tariffs for US medical devices, according to Economic Times

13th March:

  • Trump said the EU put a 50% tariff on whiskey, if this is not removed, the US will place a 200% tariff on wines, champagnes and other alcoholic products coming out of France and other EU represented countries.
  • Canada's Ontario Premier says they had a productive meeting with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick and will have another meeting next week, adds feel temperatures are decreasing and it was the best meeting they had since tariff talks began

TARIFF TALLY (SO FAR)

US Tariff Policy

  • US reciprocal Tariffs: Trump on February 13th signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed their implementation. The delay allows Trump admin to launch negotiations on a one-by-one basis with nations that could be impacted. The studies of each country could be completed by April 1st.
  • US tariffs on steel and aluminium: US President Trump signed proclamations on Monday 10th February 2025 to reimpose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports and declared there are no exceptions or exemptions, effective March 12th.
  • US tariffs on agriculture: Trump: To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States. Tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd. Have fun!"

Canada/Mexico

  • US on Canada and Mexico: Tariffs on imports from these countries have been paused for 30 days to allow for negotiations on border security and drug trafficking issues. Pause was initiated on February 3, 2025, is set to expire on March 4, 2025, at 12:01am. The pause expired, with Trump stating ‘there is no room left for a deal on tariffs on Mexico and Canada".
  • US tariff rollback: A day after the tariffs came into effect, Trump said he would temporarily spare carmakers from a new 25% import tax imposed on Canada and Mexico. Two days after imposing tariffs, Trump announced that duties on a wide range of products would be shelved until April 2nd.
  • Canada’s retaliatory tariffs: Following the end of the pause on March 4th, Canada said it would start with 25% tariffs on US imports worth CAD 30bln from Tuesday, while it will impose tariffs on an additional CAD 125bln worth of US imports in 21 days (albeit second wave suspended for now). Furthermore, it said tariffs will remain in place until the US trade action is withdrawn and it is in active discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures if US tariffs do not cease.
  • 50% US tariff and Canadian Energy Surcharge rollback: Trump on March 11th initially instructed the Commerce Secretary to impose an additional 25%, to 50%, on all steel and aluminium coming into the US from Canada from March 12th although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity.

China

  • US on China: Additional 10% tariff on top of existing levies, no exclusions, came into effect at 12:01 EST on February 4th. Note, Trump did not clarify whether or not imports of Chinese metals would face double tariffs, as he has already imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Extra 10% duty came into effect at 12:01EST on March 4th.
  • China's retaliatory tariffs: Chinese tariffs against the US took effect on February 10th and with officials also said to be building a list of US tech firms for potential probes. China imposed 15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil, agricultural machines, and some autos; Tariffs imposed in direct response to Trump's 10% tariffs, according to the Chinese Finance Ministry. China also announced export controls (no specific country mentioned) on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium. Following the US' extra 10%, on March 4th, China announced 15% on US chicken, wheat, com, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products; 15 US entities to the export control list; 10 US firms to the unreliable entity list; banned the import of Illumina (ILMN) gene sequence machines to China.

TARIFF TIMELINE

  • February 1st - Trump signed an executive order to impose 10% tariffs on all imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada starting Feb 4th.
  • February 3rd - Trump agreed to a 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico.
  • February 4th - US additional 10% tariff on China on top of existing levies came into effect. Chinese export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium took effect (no specific countries mentioned).
  • February 10th - Chinese tariffs against the US took effect (15% tariffs on US coal & LNG, 10% tariffs on US oil).
  • February 13th - Trump signed his plan for reciprocal tariffs, albeit delayed the implementation.
  • March 4th - Tariff pause on Mexico and Canada expired; Additional 10% tariffs on China went into effect on top of Feb 4th tariffs. Canada announced retaliatory tariffs over 21 days, Mexico said it will also respond with retaliatory tariffs.
  • March 5th - Trump allowed a one-month exemption on Mexico and Canada tariffs of US automakers following talks with Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP)
  • March 6th - Trump postponed the initial 25% tariffs on several imports from Mexico and some imports from Canada for a month. In response, Canada suspended its second wave of retaliatory tariffs.
  • March 10th - China's retaliatory tariffs on certain US agricultural imports (15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton; 10% on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products) went into effect; announced on March 4th in response to the extra 10% US tariff on top of Feb 4th tariffs.
  • March 11th - Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canada, although he later backed down from this threat after Ontario's Premier announced they are suspending the 25% surcharge on exports of electricity. Trump separately suggested tariffs may go higher than 25% but did not specify which tariffs.
  • March 12th - 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, with "no exceptions or exemptions"; European Commission launched countermeasures on US imports while it is putting forward a package of new countermeasures.
  • April 1st - Completion of the US trade policy review.
  • April 2nd - US Liberation Day; 1) Auto tariffs "in the neighbourhood of 25%" comes into effect, 2) US tariffs on "external" agricultural products to go into effect, 3) Temporary tariff relief for Canada and Mexico expires. 4) Reciprocal tariffs kick in - details to be unveiled on the day; US President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
  • April 13th - EU countermeasures against 25% steel and aluminium tariff to be fully in place.
  • TBC - pharma and semiconductors tariffs.

Developing

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 20:40

Over 100 Rounds Fired During Weekend Shooting In Seattle

Zero Hedge -

Over 100 Rounds Fired During Weekend Shooting In Seattle

West Seatlle...or war zone?

That's the question many have to be asking after a report that over 100 rounds were fired in West Seattle this past Sunday according to MyNorthwest.

The SPD said in a statement: “On March 30, patrol officers responded to multiple reports of shots fired and property damage near 26th Avenue Southwest and Southwest Brandon Street.” 

“When police arrived, all involved parties left the area. They did not locate any victims with injuries, no suspects, or cooperative witnesses,” the report continued.

Seattle police say a large crowd was gathered for a vigil—likely for a recent South Seattle homicide victim—when gunfire erupted. Officers found over 100 shell casings at the scene.

A detective commented: “There was bullet damage to a nearby RV trailer. There was bullet damage to a house, and there was an abandoned vehicle that was also damaged."

The MyNorthwest article says that SPD suspects Glock switches may have been involved. The Gun Violence Reduction Unit is investigating and processing the scene.

“These glock switches, they’re basically capable of turning a pistol into an automatic machine gun type of a weapon,” the detective continued. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 20:30

RFK Jr.'s Advisor Torches Anti-MAHA Lobbyists: "Insane To Think More Bureaucrats = Better Health"

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr.'s Advisor Torches Anti-MAHA Lobbyists: "Insane To Think More Bureaucrats = Better Health"

Calley Means, co-founder of the Truemed telehealth platform and a special government employee at the Department of Health and Human Services advising Robert F. Kennedy Jr., defended efforts to eliminate waste and fraud within federal health agencies.

During a tense exchange at the Politico Health Care Summit on Wednesday, Means criticized existing federal health authorities as an "utter failure," prompting one healthcare lobbyist in the crowd to shout, "That's not true!" Means then proceeded on a warpath with stats, shutting up the room of anti-MAHA lobbyists. 

Here's the exchange:

Calley: "Those scientists fundamentally have overseen a record of utter failure."

Lobbyist: "That's not true!"

Calley: "Oh, that's not true?"

"Has there been one single chronic disease medication in modern American history that has lowered rates of the chronic disease?"

"Is it appropriate that the American Academy of Pediatrics right now, which is 90% funded by pharma, is pushing Ozempic on six year olds?"

"The lobbyists in this room do not have the humility to admit that we have gone completely wrong."

"The lobbyists in this room laughing when we have the sickest children in the developed world."

Means continued:

"When you turn on CNBC, it's just a nonstop infomercial for pharma. It's a Skyrizi commercial followed by Scott Gottlieb saying how Bobby's killing people followed by a breathless coverage of the measles outbreak, and no mention of the mental health crisis. It is insane for you to insinuate that the thing standing between us and better health is more government bureaucrats."

Means defended rolling back staffing levels to 2017, arguing that trimming bloated federal health agencies is necessary after decades of worsening public health and some of the worst health rates for kids in the developed world.

What's clear is that a bloated HHS—with its massive administrative state—has failed to improve the health of Americans.

In fact, health outcomes for children have worsened. And US health costs are the highest in the world. 

As Means pointed out, it's time for meaningful reforms (such as HHS cuts last week)—not just in health care, but across the processed foods industrial complex. It's time for Americans to demand big food stop poisoning them with chemicals and seed oils.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 19:40

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Trade Deficit, ISM Services

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $110.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $131.4 billion in January.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for March.

Hegseth: Men And Women In Combat Must Meet 'Same, High Standard'

Zero Hedge -

Hegseth: Men And Women In Combat Must Meet 'Same, High Standard'

Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Defense Department on Monday revealed that it would be imposing “sex-neutral” standards for military combat roles.

US troops take part in weapons training during the 'Balikatan' or 'shoulder-to-shoulder' US-Philippines joint military exercises in Fort Magsaysay on April 13, 2023 in Nueva Ecija, Philippines. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the changes to its physical fitness requirements in an effort to “fix” the standards that he said were “lowered” under President Barack Obama’s administration.

“Different physical standards for men and women in the U.S. military have existed for a long time. BUT, there were also combat roles that were male-only,” Hegseth said in a statement on X. “Then, under Obama, all combat roles were opened to men AND women. BUT, different physical fitness standards for men and women remained.”

“Today at the Department of Defense—we fix this. All combat roles are open to men and women BUT they must all meet the same, high standard. No standards will be lowered AND all combat roles will only have sex-neutral standards. Common sense,” Hegseth added.

In a March 30 memorandum, the defense secretary said that the nature of warfare has evolved over time and the demands of U.S. service members have grown more complex.

“Sex-neutral” standards must therefore be imposed, according to Hegseth.

“All entry-level and sustained physical fitness requirements within combat arms positions must be sex-neutral, based solely on the operational demands of the occupation and the readiness needed to confront any adversary,” he wrote. “In establishing those standards, the Secretaries of the Military Departments may not establish standards that would result in any existing Service member being held to a lower standard.”

The defense secretary also directed military secretaries to distinguish between combat and non-combat arms occupations in order to ensure that the standards reflect the unique physical demands of each role.

Hegseth also directed them to come up with comprehensive plans for each of those roles.

In Ground Combat roles, standards should emphasize the ability to carry heavy loads, endure prolonged physical exertion, and perform effectively in hostile environments.

Roles in Special Operation Forces should require “sustained peak physical performance” and incorporate advanced swimming, climbing, parachuting, and the ability to operate in extreme environments.

In Specialized Operations, such as Navy divers, service members must have the endurance to tackle conditions that are considered mentally and physically taxing.

Hegseth has previously expressed his opposition to women in combat jobs and his belief that standards were lowered to accommodate women. He has also been a staunch proponent of setting all standards the same, regardless of gender.

On Jan. 1, 2016, the Defense Department, under Obama, opened all combat roles to women for the first time in U.S. military history.

“They’ll be allowed to drive tanks, fire mortars and lead infantry soldiers into combat,” Defense Secretary Ash Carter stated at the time. “They’ll be able to serve as Army Rangers and Green Berets, Navy SEALs, Marine Corps infantry, Air Force parajumpers, and everything else that was previously open only to men.”

A 2015 study by the Marine Corps revealed the difference in performance between men and women. As part of the study, the Marine Corps conducted a gender integration experiment in which women participated in infantry courses that were typically closed to females. Mixed-gender combat units took up to a staggering 159 percent longer to evacuate a casualty than all-male units, the results showed.

*  *  *

Best sellers at ZH Store:

Click pic, add to cart, enjoy great knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 19:15

Massie Bill Demands Federal Candidates Reveal Dual Citizenship

Zero Hedge -

Massie Bill Demands Federal Candidates Reveal Dual Citizenship

Seeking to spotlight federal office-seekers who may have a conflict of interest, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie has introduced a bill that would require candidates for federal office to disclose any non-American citizenships they hold.  

"Personally, I don’t think dual citizens should serve in Congress, but I ultimately decided to introduce a transparency bill requiring full disclosure of citizenship," said Massie in a Monday Fox News interview with Will Cain. "Voters can then make the decision." So far, Massie's Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act (HR 2356) has attracted four co-sponsors, all of them Republicans: Andy Biggs (AZ-5), Clay Higgins (LA-3), Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) and Nicholas Begich (AK at-large). 

Massie argues that voters should know if a candidate has loyalties to foreign countries (Allison Bailey / NurPhoto via AP and NBC News)

While it's not a provision of his transparency-focused bill that would amend the Federal Election Campaign Act, Massie thinks dual citizens in Congress "should... abstain from votes specifically benefitting those countries," the libertarian-minded MIT grad said in a press release accompanying the introduction of his bill. "We swear an oath to the Constitution, and the question is, if you're a citizen of two countries, which oath are you taking more seriously, or can you take them both seriously?" Massie told Fox's Cain. 

Underscoring the mystery that Massie is seeking to end, it's unclear how many current members of Congress have citizenship in a foreign country. Indeed, ZeroHedge wasn't able to identify any members who have disclosed dual citizenships on their own. According to Pew Research, there are 19 foreign-born members of the 119th Congress, but that doesn't necessarily equate to holding citizenship abroad. Among those 19, the countries of birth are Mexico (4 members), India (3), South Korea (2) Ukraine (2), Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Japan, Peru, Somalia and Taiwan.    

"I'm not picking on any particular country," said Massie. However, American social media and other discourse regarding US officials' potential dual citizenship has overwhelmingly focused on Israel, which receives billions of dollars in US military aid every year, in a relationship that foments intense foreign resentments against the United States, and terrorism against Americans. 

When he last summer first began advocating for dual citizens in Congress to renounce their foreign citizenships, Massie was immediately accused of anti-semitism. One of his accusers was then-Florida state senator Randy Fine, who on Tuesday was elected to the US Congress in a special election:

Fine, who calls himself the "Hebrew Hammer," has a history of intensely zealous support of Israel, to include a host of controversial statements celebrating IDF-inflicted bloodshed -- even mocking a photo that purportedly depicted a baby killed by US-supplied weapons. The Trump endorsee, who accompanied Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis when he traveled 6,600 miles to Jerusalem to sign a state law to target antisemitism, has also used a slur ("Judenrat") to attack a fellow Jew who challenged Fine's fiercely pro-Israel line. 

Massie's refusal to vote for aid to Israel, and his votes against bills that would subject colleges that allow anti-Israel speech to federal enforcement actions, have made him a recurring target of pro-Israel political organizations. They've spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in attempts to oust him in a GOP primary or simply undermine his political future -- so far, all in vain.

One of the biggest spenders in 2024 was an offshoot of the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Staking a position that echoes his transparency-seeking Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act, Massie has argued that AIPAC should be compelled to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act:

In February, when Massie teased a potential 2026 bid for the Senate seat of retiring former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the Republican Jewish Coalition warned that "the RJC campaign budget to ensure he is defeated will be unlimited." Massie turned that threat into a fundraising bonanza of his own, raising hundreds of thousands in small-dollar contributions to his campaign fund in just a few days. 

On Tuesday, treading on what may be thin political ice himself, Cain endorsed Massie's Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act:

"I don't like it when I see an elected official have more than the American flag in their...bio on X. I don't want to see a Ukrainian flag. I don't want to see an Israeli flag. I want to see single loyalty to the United States of America." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:50

Revealed: Pro-Kamala Social-Media Millions That Couldn't Sync 'Brat' With 'Democrat'

Zero Hedge -

Revealed: Pro-Kamala Social-Media Millions That Couldn't Sync 'Brat' With 'Democrat'

Authored by Lee Fang via RealClearInvestigations,

The abrupt withdrawal last year of President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, followed rapidly by his replacement with Vice President Kamala Harris, irked many voters left out by the process. Yet social media seemed to ooze with enthusiasm and Gen Z-friendly hipster appeal. 

British singer Charli XCX, whose album "Brat" ignited a "brat summer," inspiring Kamala Harris's team to draft off it, unsuccessfully. The stealth effort included social media payoffs and other campaign-finance workarounds. 

Influencers flooded the web with neon-matcha green pro-Harris videos synced to beats from singer Charli XCX's album “Brat” released last year. The poppy rave videos, gushed journalists, showed that Harris embodied the confidently independent "brat" vibe conveyed by the music. Social media pages bubbled with memes celebrating Harris as the voice of queer and black youth, in contrast with the Republican agenda of white supremacy. Digital creator Amelia Montooth, in one viral TikTok video, kissed a woman and tried searching for pornography, actions her sketch suggested would be banned if Harris lost the election.

Harris, a career politician favored by the Democratic Party’s establishment, never quite fit the bill as an icon of activist movements. But the sudden influencer buzz seemed to transform the stodgy former prosecutor into an icon of the cultural zeitgeist. 

As it turns out, the tidal wave of enthusiasm was not entirely genuine. Much of the content, including Montooth’s videos, was quietly funded by an elusive group of Democratic billionaires and major donors in an arrangement designed to conceal the payments from voters. 

RealClearInvestigations obtained internal documents and WhatsApp messages from Democratic strategists behind the influencer campaign. Way to Win, one of the major donor groups behind the effort, spent more than $9.1 million on social media influencers during the 2024 presidential election – payments revealed here for the first time. The amount was touted in a document circulated after the election detailing the organization’s accomplishments. 

The effort supported over 550 content creators who published 6,644 posts across platforms, TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Twitch, and X. Way to Win coached creators on phrases, issue areas, and key themes to “disseminate pro-Kamala content throughout the cycle,” a post-election memo from the group noted.

The look behind the curtain reveals that at least some of the image-making around the Harris candidacy was carefully orchestrated by the same types of covert social media marketing often used by corporate brands and special interest groups. Such campaigns provide the illusion of organic support through the authentic appeal of trusted social media voices.

Way to Win, in internal messages, touted its work with a stable of Democratic Party-affiliated influencers and activists, including Harry Sisson, Emily Amick, Kate Abu, and Dash Dobrofsky. The group also overtly cultivated “non-political creators” – influencers typically known for travel vlogs, comedic skits, or cooking recipes – and seeded them with “positive, specific pro-Kamala content” that was “integral in setting the tone on the Internet and driving additional organic digital support.” The effort often took the form of talking points that were rapidly distributed to the in-network creators. 

“Bro who is Tim Walz,” said @AbeeTheArtist, one of the TikTok creators backed by Way to Win. “He's a football coach, that's hard,” the influencer continued. “It's time for Republicans to drop out, it's not looking good for ya'll!”

In a series of internal presentations about the influencer campaign, Way to Win emphasized its data-driven approach. "We know what messaging works," noted Liz Jaff, a branding strategist working with Way to Win, during a call with donors last year. She touted the use of an AI-based focus group tool developed by Future Forward, the Harris campaign’s primary SuperPAC. 

Jaff also explained the process for developing talking points that could be inserted into organic-appearing messages and posts on social media. “We then convey that to the influencers who take that into their own words,” continued Jaff. “We then test those videos and see what needs to be boosted,” she added, referencing paid media efforts to amplify specific TikTok videos or favored streamers. 

The lofty promises of message mastery, however, often fell short. Way to Win directly financed a series of clunky YouTube shows and liberal identity politics-oriented social media skits designed to bring voters out to support the Harris campaign and Democrats more broadly. There’s little evidence that such measures moved any significant numbers of voters during an election in which Democrats lost historic levels of support from key constituency groups – the youth vote, Latinos, and black men swung significantly to Donald Trump last year, upending decades of voting patterns.

Ilana Glazer, a comedian who starred in the Comedy Central show Broad City, received Way to Win funding for a series of election videos called “Microdosing Democracy,” in which she half-heartedly endorsed Harris as she lighted a spliff of marijuana. Another TikTok and Instagram series backed by the donors, called “Gaydar,” featured interviews quizzing people on the streets of New York City about gay culture trivia with little election-related content.

Way to Win also funded a caravan with an inflatable IUD to Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Raleigh, St. Louis, and other locations. The tour, which featured content creators producing posts along the way, was designed to bring attention to claims that Trump would ban contraceptive devices. 

In an apparent attempt to boost Harris’ support among black men, Way to Win directly funded a series of YouTube interview-style talk shows called Watering Hole Media.

"I heard a brother say to me, 'Man, I didn't know I was going to be excited when Kamala was selected,’" said Jeff Johnson, a managing director with the lobbying firm Actum LLC who worked as a host for the Watering Hole Mediaseries “Tap In.” “One brother said, 'I'm not even fully sure why,’” continued Johnson. “No, seriously, he said, 'When I look at her, though, she reminds me of my aunt,' and I said yes, so there is this communal piece." 

The discussion, taped at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last August, buzzed about the “through line” from the Black Panthers to the Nation of Islam to Harris' nomination, suggesting her candidacy represented another moment in radical black politics. 

The Way to Win-sponsored media group sponsored many similar discussions attempting to buoy the Harris candidacy with appeals to racial identity politics.

Despite the well-funded efforts, few tuned in. The seven video programs produced at the DNC collectively garnered fewer than 1,000 views. One video had fewer than 40 viewers. 

Questions have mounted over the campaign spending decisions from Harris and her supporting organizations. The Harris campaign and her SuperPAC spent over $1.5 billion in the last months of the campaign, with much of the money flowing to consultants and media advertising. Alex Cooper, who hosted Harris for an interview on her “Call Her Daddy” podcast, was baffled about why the campaign spent about $100,000 on a “cardboard” temporary studio set that “wasn’t that nice.” Others have raised similar concerns about payments to Oprah Winfrey’s production firm. 

“Our 2024 creator program reached key audiences with nearly a billion views, but there’s more to do, and we’re applying lessons from last cycle,” a Way to Win spokesperson said in a statement to RCI.

"Sometimes in presidential campaigns, there are times when there aren't any cost controls," observed Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania. "The biggest question is whether they had any empirical evidence that this TikTok messaging would work."

The payments occupy a hazy area of election law. Way to Win structured the funds through nonprofit corporations that paid various influencer talent agencies – firms such as Palette Management and Vocal Media. The money was not listed in Federal Election Commission disclosure portals that show political funds spent during the campaign. 

While television or radio ads require disclaimers showing the groups responsible for paying for the advertisements, there are no equivalent mandates for TikTok stars or Instagram personalities that receive payment to promote election-related content. Despite some attempts to reform election transparency regulations, minimal progress has been made. The FEC has deadlocked over attempts to form new rules to govern the influencer space, leaving the entire medium virtually lawless regarding campaign cash. 

Way to Win operates several entities and corporations, most of which do not disclose donors. The group did not respond to a request for comment for more information in this regard. However, the cache of documents about the influencer campaign pointed to some clues. Way to Win hosted a series of donor-only events in San Francisco and Washington, D.C., with representatives of the Open Society Foundation, the charity backed by billionaire investor George Soros. OSF did not respond to a request for comment. 

Democrats are hardly alone in payola for influencers. Republican campaigns have spent several hundred thousand dollars on similar social media marketing agencies that tout the ability to seed content with popular accounts on X and TikTok. 

But the attempted reach and spending of the pro-Kamala Harris 2024 effort is unprecedented. For Way to Win, the group justified the spending sprees as the only way to compete with pro-Trump voices and popular podcasts, such as Joe Rogan, which the Harris campaign eschewed. 

“Our goal this year was to combat conservative content domination on Instagram and TikTok. We did that,” Way to Win claimed in a triumphant memo to donors after the election. 

“Had more Americans gotten their media from Instagram and TikTok,” the December memo argued, “Kamala Harris would be the next President of the United States.”

Best sellers at ZH Store:

Click picture, check out knife...

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Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:25

Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined

Zero Hedge -

Government Funding For mRNA Technology Is Being Scrutinized And, In Some Cases, Sidelined

It looks as though government funding for mRNA technology is on a short leash...

Take, for example, a promising mRNA vaccine for pancreatic cancer, developed by Memorial Sloan Kettering, that showed encouraging early results: in some patients, immune responses lasted up to four years and appeared to reduce recurrence.

It is being overshadowed by new concerns about federal support for mRNA research, according to a new op-ed by science commentator Anjana Ahuja in the Financial Times. 

According to Nature, NIH officials are informally advising scientists to remove references to mRNA from grant applications, and a spreadsheet tracking 130 related projects has raised fears of funding cuts.

NIH claims it's simply reviewing what mRNA work it currently funds, but the lack of clarity has sparked unease—especially given the agency’s massive $47 billion research budget.

Drew Weissman, the Nobel-winning scientist behind mRNA vaccine breakthroughs, warned that cutting NIH support for mRNA research would stall medical progress and harm U.S. science. Even the threat of funding cuts creates fear and instability, especially for young researchers who may now look abroad for more secure opportunities.

To which we reply: if mRNA vaccines have a safe solution, the free market will eventually allow them to flourish...

But the Financial Times piece says that concerns have intensified with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading Health and Human Services, and reports that mRNA projects are being scrutinized or sidelined politically. 

One early study using personalized mRNA cancer vaccines is already yielding hopeful results and has launched a broader global trial, according to the op-ed.

Scientists argue that pulling support now could derail life-saving innovation. As history shows, today’s medical breakthroughs rest on decades of consistent public research investment — a pipeline that can’t survive in a climate of political interference.

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Click picture, check out knife... Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 18:00

California's Regulations, Not Price Gouging, Cause High Gas Prices, USC Study Finds

Zero Hedge -

California's Regulations, Not Price Gouging, Cause High Gas Prices, USC Study Finds

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Gov. Gavin Newsom stands behind his claim that “Big Oil” is responsible for California’s higher gas prices and vowed on April 1 to continue his fight against the industry. The pledge comes after new research put the blame on state regulations and policies for the high prices at the pump.

California’s Democratic leaders have come out strongly against the oil industry in recent years, saying the companies’ gouging was causing record-high gas prices.

“Gov. Newsom has done more than any other governor in recent history to tackle the challenge of rising gas prices—despite what the oil industry and its allies say,” a spokesman for Newsom told The Epoch Times in an email Tuesday.

A new study published March 16 by Michael Mische from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California says the evidence contradicts Newsom. Mische’s research indicated California’s high gas prices were caused by the state’s regulations and policies.

“There is no economic data to support the allegation of price gouging,” Mische told The Epoch Times. “It just doesn’t exist.”

The professor also pushed back against Newsom’s claim that he was an industry ally.

“The data is the data,” Mische said.

Mische has been on the USC faculty since 1997, where he coordinates the business school’s management consulting undergraduate and graduate programs.

In March 2023, the governor signed a “windfall-profits penalty law” to target oil companies. The new law created a slew of regulations and extensive oversight for oil companies.

Newsom’s office said the governor saved Californians billions of dollars at the pump by signing the law.

The measure allows the governor’s appointed Energy Commission to fine and penalize oil companies if they earned profits beyond state-imposed limits.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in the Capitol rotunda in Sacramento on March 28, 2023. Courtesy of the Office of Gov. Gavin Newsom

The legislation also created a watchdog agency within the Energy Commission and appointed a Department of Justice prosecutor, Tai Milder, to oversee it.

“And with last year’s special session on gas price spikes, we have more tools on the way, including requiring oil refineries to maintain adequate supply to protect the state from supply-driven price spikes,” Newsom’s spokesman said Tuesday. In October, the governor signed a bill allowing the state to require that refiners keep a minimum inventory.

Study Show High Prices ‘Largely Self-inflicted’

According to the USC study, which included up to 50 years of data, California’s high gasoline prices and supply problems are “largely self-inflicted, and the result of directed policies and a litany of regulations, taxes, fees, and costs.”

“The economic evidence is abundant; California refiners have not engaged in widespread price gouging, profiteering, price manipulation, ‘unexplained residual prices’ or surcharges, magical or otherwise,” Mische wrote in the report.

Vehicles pass the Phillips 66 Los Angeles Refinery in Wilmington, Calif., on Nov. 28, 2022. Mario Tama/Getty Images

“The Golden State’s gasoline price dilemma is the result of the complex interactions of regulatory and political policies, and the subtleties of refinery operations and global crude oil prices and in-state centric supply and demand,” he added.

The state’s aggressive environmental policies are a major contributor, the report said. These include the state’s cap-and-trade charge for the industry that is passed down to the consumer. Environmental fees add about 51 cents per gallon of gas, according to the report. The state’s reporting and compliance costs are also high, which adds to the retail price of gasoline, including the state’s required special summer blend gasoline.

California also charges the highest excise tax in the nation, which along with local taxes and other program costs, increase prices at the pump, according to Mische.

Cargo shipping containers are seen adjacent to storage tanks at Marathon Petroleum's Los Angeles Refinery in Carson, Calif., on March 11, 2022. Reuters

Operating and refinery costs are also higher in California, he said.

The number of California refineries has also dropped by nearly 70 percent since 1984, from 43 to 13, Mische noted in the report.

The combination of regulations, taxes, and requirements placed on the oil and gas industry have driven up prices and taken a toll on the average working Californian who needs to drive to work, according to Mische.

“The issue is, we have Californians who are suffering,” Mische said. “They are feeling the squeeze and they’re going to feel more of the squeeze. We already have the highest cost of living in the United States. This just adds more burden onto the back of the consumer, and we can fix it.”

Vehicles pass a gas station in Rosemead, Calif., on Sept. 23, 2024. Frederic J. Brown/AFP

California is the second largest consumer of petroleum in the United States but produces less than 3 percent of the nation’s supply, the study found.

To meet the needs of drivers, utilities, and industry, the state is highly dependent on oil imports. California’s imports have increased significantly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and other petrostates such as Brazil, Guyana, and Ecuador, according to the report.

Nevada gas prices also hinge on California refineries, as the Silver State’s retailers get most of their supply from the state next door.

The study’s results were no surprise to industry and political leaders who are critics of Newsom’s stance on the industry.

Catherine Reheis-Boyd, director of the Western Petroleum Association in Los Angeles, said the study backs up what the association has said for years.

“It’s no secret that California has gotten in its own way when it comes to high [gas prices] and supply challenges,” Reheis-Boyd posted on X March 20.

Rigs extract oil in Culver City, Calif., on May 16, 2008. Gabriel Bouys/AFP via Getty Images

State Senate Republican Leader Brian Jones, of Santee, said 83 percent of California voters agree that gas prices are too high.

Jones told The Epoch Times in an email, “Despite knowing what’s driving costs up, Democrats refuse to fix their mistakes. In fact, they continue to double down on their war against our wallets and raise prices at the pump.”

California had the highest gas prices in the nation Tuesday, with an average of $4.85 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

The national average was $3.20, AAA reported.

The second most costly gas could be found in Hawaii, where consumers paid an average of $4.52, AAA reported.

“We now know the reason our prices are $1.65 higher than the national average,” Jones added.

“Enough with the political grandstanding and games. It’s time to get to work and finally lower these prices.”

Another report, published March 18 by the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC), titled “Oil and Gas in California,” shows California’s oil and gas industry is essential to the state’s economy.

“Despite facing significant challenges, including regulatory pressures, market fluctuations, and global geopolitical tensions, the industry has continued to provide critical economic, employment, and fiscal benefit across the state,” the report stated.

The data used in the report was from 2022—the same year that the governor vowed to punish “Big Oil” for allegedly “price gouging.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/02/2025 - 17:40

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