Can We Really Cut Half Of The Military Budget? Ron Paul Says "You Bet!"

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

The wailing sound you heard last Thursday was the chorus of the Beltway warmongers shrieking in despair at President Trump’s suggestion that there was no reason for the United States to be spending one trillion dollars on “defense.”

“…[O]ne of the first meetings I want to have is with President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia, and I want to say let’s cut our military budget in half. And we can do that, and I think we’ll be able to do that,” the President told reporters.

With this statement, President Trump blew up one of the biggest myths of our time, particularly among Republicans, that spending more on the military is essential to keeping us safe. There is a vast and well-funded network of political and industrial interests that depend on maintaining that myth, from the weapons manufacturers to the mainstream media to the think tanks and beyond. Why? Because most of what is called “defense spending” has little to do with defending this country and a lot to do with enriching the politically well-connected.

Maintaining that global military empire has bankrupted the United States while making us less safe and less free. President Trump seems to understand this. But the military-industrial complex and its cheerleaders have for decades pushed the idea that we could not survive without continuously increasing their budgets.

Thanks to the work of the “Department of Government Efficiency” we are learning that much of what has been sold as “essential spending” is nothing of the sort. Take USAID, for example. We were led to believe that this agency was feeding the poor while promoting the best kind of American values overseas. Thanks to DOGE, we learned that the money was going to absurdities like funding transgender puppet shows in Peru.

We are also learning that a great deal of USAID money was going to actually overthrow democratic governments overseas – as well as manipulate foreign media and promote censorship of “dissident” voices at home and abroad. Not only was USAID not helping countries overseas – it was actually harming them!

Just as with USAID, when we are able to see just where that one trillion military budget is going Americans are going to fully realize that they have been lied to for decades. That is why we need a full audit of the Pentagon and full transparency of the results.

We also need a change in policy. Americans are beginning to understand the economic costs of maintaining a global military empire. US taxpayers are forced to cover more than half of the entire NATO budget while European countries rattle sabers at Russia and threaten war. If Europe feels so threatened by Russia, why don’t they cover the costs of their own defense? Why do poor Americans have to pay for the defense of rich Europeans? Haven’t we had enough of this?

I very much hope that President Trump follows through with his plan to drastically reduce our bloated military budget. We can start by closing the hundreds of military bases overseas, bringing back our troops from foreign countries, and eliminating our massive commitments to NATO and other international organizations.

We will be richer, safer, and happier.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 12:20

WTI Holds Gains Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Build, No SPR Addition

Oil extended a string of small gains as uncertainty over global supplies lingered, offsetting API's report of another increase in US crude stockpiles.

Crude has risen this week on the prospect that supplies may tighten as oil flows through a key Kazakh pipeline were reduced and as OPEC+ considers whether to push back a planned production increase.

“Prices will likely remain rangebound, continuing to move with headlines,” Royal Bank of Canada analysts including Brian Leisen wrote in a note, adding that “as more time passes without the market realizing a substantial catalyst,” traders will tend to position themselves closer to average prices.

So all eyes are on the official data this morning for confirmation of the inventory rise.

API

• Crude +3.34mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline +2.8mm

• Distillates -2.7mm

DOE

• Crude +4.63mm (+2.16mm exp)

• Cushing +1.47mm

• Gasoline -151k

• Distillates -2.05mm

Crude stocks rose more than expected last week - the fourth straight weekly build - as Distillates inventories drew down again but the official Gasoline stocks shift was de minimus...

Source: Bloomberg

For the first time since Nov 2023, there was no addition to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production inched higher...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was hovering up near the high of the day around $73 ahead of the print and is holding the gains for now...

Trading has calmed after a tumultuous start to the year, with prices locked in a narrow range this month as the market becomes increasingly numb to the array of changes that US President Donald Trump is seeking to implement.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 12:08

Tournament Tensions Mount As US-Canada Hockey Rivalry Mixes In Politics

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

It is more than just a hockey game.

On Feb. 20, the National Hockey League’s best American players will face off against its best Canadian players once again in the championship bout of the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. It is round two of a rivalry match nearly a decade overdue, colliding national politics with sport on a level that has American fans reminiscing about their 1980 Miracle on Ice victory against the Soviet Union.

The Canadians, meanwhile, whose national identity is directly tied to hockey, appeared to indicate the feelings around this series are mutual by booing the U.S. national anthem during their first match of the tournament on Feb. 15 in Montreal.

Now, anthem booing started before the 4 Nations tournament, occurring as far back as the weekend of Feb. 1 at the start of NHL games in Ottawa, Calgary, and Vancouver. The U.S. anthem was also booed at the start of NBA games, with the Toronto Raptors hosting the Los Angeles Clippers and then the New York Knicks.

However, this booing ensued despite Bell Centre requesting that all fans show respect to both anthems, and it was followed by Team USA starting three fights in the first nine seconds of play.

While it was widely reported and assumed that the fights were directly related to the disrespect, brothers Brady and Matthew Tkachuk, and JT Miller revealed that they were already planning to start the game off with fights in a group chat.

However, Team USA’s general manager, Bill Guerin, didn’t rule out the current political climate as inspiration for the physicality when he appeared on Fox’s “America’s Newsroom” on Feb. 17.

“I think a little bit of everything. Canada-U.S. is a huge rivalry in hockey,” he said. “I think there was a little bit of a political flare to it. It’s just the time that we’re in. I think our guys used that as inspiration. If you let it get the better of you, then you’re in trouble. But I really do think the players used it as inspiration.”

The rivalry has lacked intensity of late, since the last time NHL players had international best-on-best games was the 2016 World Cup of Hockey in Toronto. Team USA played Canada in the 2022 and 2018 Winter Olympics, but NHL players didn’t participate.

Why are Canadians disrespecting the U.S. anthem? It is most likely due to President Donald Trump, who, in the early days of his second presidency, threatened Canada with tariffs and expressed his desire to make Canada the 51st state.

“You will turn a loyal friend into a resentful neighbor, forced to match tariff with tariff and to seek friends everywhere else,” Canadian Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre warned the U.S. during a Canada-First rally on Feb. 15, promising his audience, “Let me be clear: We will never be the 51st state.”

In response to the tariff threat, Canadians have also recently threatened to boycott American products, as well as visiting states like Florida.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dismissed the threats on Feb. 19, saying on X, “We frequently hear about different threats to boycott Florida, and yet our tourism numbers continue to grow year after year. …  I doubt this time will be any different.”

Canada scored the first goal of the game on Feb. 15, but the United States went on to win 3-1, with crushing hits to national heroes like Sydney Crosby and Connor McDavid in the process. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in attendance.

The game ended Canada’s 17-game win streak in best-on-best play against the United States as well as its 26-game win streak with Crosby on the roster.

“We needed to send a message,” Matthew Tkachuk said of the fights and win to the Associated Press. “The message we wanted to send is ‘It’s our time.’”

His brother Brady mentioned before the game that he was excited to play the villain role, and his teammates echoed that sentiment.

“We’re kind of the bad guys, it’s a fun role to play,” defenseman Noah Hanifin said. “I know the environment tomorrow is going to be probably the most intense I’ve ever been a part of. So it’s these moments you dream of and it’s exciting to be a part of it. It’s stuff that you’ll take with you the rest of your life.”

This was set up to be an exhibition all-star tournament midway through the season. It is not recognized by the International Ice Hockey Federation, the International Olympic Committee, or any international sporting authority.

Yet, the privilege to represent one’s country has these guys driving full speed, a stark contrast to traditional all-star events.

“It’s kind of like a Game 7,” McDavid said. “A lot of guys in this room have been in that situation before. Got to get a win.”

The NHL confirmed that more than 10 million people across North America tuned in to watch the game on Feb. 15, and more are expected to tune in on Feb. 20 as the action highlights spread.

One of those viewers could be Trump, as Guerin told Fox News that the president was welcomed.

“We would love it if President Trump was in attendance. We have a room full of proud American players and coaches and staff,” he said. “And listen, we’re just trying to represent our country the best way we can.”

Come Friday, the regular season will resume. Many American players will return to Canadian teams, including Austin Matthews, Team USA’s captain, who will resume his role as captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Likewise, Canadian players will return to the United States, including Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and head coach Jon Cooper, who will all go back to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

But until then, sports fans have one more night of nation-first hockey.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 10:45

Mercedes Slides On Profit Plunge, Weak Car Guidance

Mercedes shares declined in Germany on Thursday after the struggling automaker reported a nearly one-third drop in 2024 profits, pressured by softening demand in China and sluggish electric vehicle sales. Analysts at Bernstein characterized the 2025 outlook for passenger cars as "predictably weak." 

Here's a snapshot of the 2024 fiscal year financial results. The focus is on deteriorating EBIT margin (courtesy of Bloomberg):  

• Ebit EU13.60 billion, -31% y/y

• Dividend per share EU4.30 vs. EU5.30 y/y, estimate EU4.32

• Profit EU10.41 billion, -28% y/y, estimate EU9.87 billion

• Sales EU145.59 billion, -4.5% y/y, estimate EU145.85 billion

• Industrial free cash flow EU9.15 billion, estimate EU8.49 billion

• Vans adjusted return on sales 14.6% vs. 15.1% y/y, estimate 14.8%

• Vans adjusted Ebit EU2.83 billion, estimate EU2.87 billion

Mercedes announced plans to slash 10% of production costs through 2027 and provided a dismal outlook for this year. It expects lower sales and guided profit margins lower than Wall Street's expectations...

2025 Forecast:

• Sees Cars adjusted return on sales 6% to 8%, estimate 7.91% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees Vans adjusted return on sales 10% to 12%, estimate 12.8%

"To ensure the company's future competitiveness in an increasingly uncertain world, we are taking steps to make the company leaner, faster and stronger," CEO Ola Kallenius wrote in a statement.

With CEO Kallenius at the helm, Mercedes has prioritized producing higher-end vehicles while shifting away from entry-level models. There was a time—many years ago—when the automaker focused on building cars for executives. However, weak demand for Maybachs and G-Wagons in China and other markets has pressured this strategy.

Kallenius expects margins margins upwards of 10% by 2027. Like many others in Europe, automakers have been pressured by weakening global demand, a dismal economic environment in Germany, and Chinese competitors such as BYD. At the same time, trade tensions with the US are another headwind for EU automakers. 

On Thursday, Mercedes shares in Germany fell as much as 3.8% in trading. Shares have been locked in a four-year lateral between 50 euros as the base and 75 euros as the ceiling. 

Analyst commentary from Goldman's George Galliers and others noted that 4Q24 "beat" but profit margin forecasts for this year are problematic:

• Waiting for 2027 - Mercedes' initial release provided limited disclosure with respect to today's CMD content. MB confirmed that the next generation of products starts this year with the new CLA, to be followed by an upgrade of the S-Class in 2026 and BEV versions of the GLC and C-Class. The company expects sales to gain traction in 2027 on the back of the new products. In addition, MB plans to reduce production costs by 10% by 2027 and also take measures to tackle material costs and fixed costs over the same period.

• Shareholder returns solid but no clarity yet on Trucks - Mercedes plans to buy back up to €5bn of shares within 24 months, subject to approval at the company's AGM in May. MB stated that the buyback is in line with the existing policy, to return 100% of future ind. FCF above the dividend, and confirmed a continuation of a c.40% payout ratio. We wait to see if the CMD provides clarity on what MB plans for its Daimler Truck stake.

• 4Q24 group EBIT beat as Cars sees cost tailwinds - Mercedes reported 4Q24 group adj. EBIT of €3.53bn, 9.6% ahead of company-compiled consensus (€3.22bn, GSe €3.42bn). The beat was driven by Cars with adj. EBIT at €2.38bn (cons €2.21bn, GSe €2.34bn) leading to an 8.1% margin (cons 7.8%, GSe 8.1%). Looking at the Cars bridge, weaker Volume/Structure/Pricing -€780mn was offset by a better than expected performance on ind. costs €206mn (GSe €29mn). R&D also provided a tailwind at €273mn (GSe -€265mn). 4Q ind. FCF was strong at €2.90bn (cons €2.12bn, GSe €2.11bn) despite a limited contribution from WC. Mercedes declared a dividend of €4.30 for FY24 (GSe €4.50).

• FY25 guide suggests negative revisions to estimates - Mercedes guided for group EBIT significantly below 2024, implying <€11.6bn (cons €11.8bn, GSe €11.8bn) and, hence, lower than existing estimates. Ind. FCF is also expected to be significantly below 2024 implying <€6.9bn, (cons €5.9bn, GSe €6.5bn). The Cars margin is seen at 6-8%, which we see as in line with expectations (cons 7.1%, GSe 7.2%) with Vans at 10-12%, below where cons presently stands (cons 13.2%, GSe 12.0%).

More analyst commentary (courtesy of Bloomberg):

RBC (outperform)

• Analyst Tom Narayan writes that the buyside's expectations were heightened into today's investor event and some may have expected more on capital return, for example relating to the Daimler Truck stake
• Notes the miss in the van margin guidance for 2025
• Still, says the 4Q Ebit came in ahead of consensus and the company is calling for 2025 cars Ebit margins to be 7%, at the midpoint where consensus is

Bernstein (market-perform)

• Analysts led by Stephen Reitman say 2025 passenger cars guidance is "predictably weak" and in-line with their expectations, while vans guidance is a miss
• Say it's a slight beat on the full-year results and the guidance, and notes the new buyback details

Citi (neutral)

• Analysts Harald Hendrikse and Soumava Banerjee say Mercedes is "at least fighting" its deteriorating Ebit margin trend and the share buyback program should shore up the firm's earnings per share until 2027, when new products are meant to boost profitability

Separately, Europe's largest automaker, Volkswagen, has also come under pressure, moving forward with cost-cutting measures to reduce 35,000 jobs in Germany by the end of the decade. Europe is a mess. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 10:05

Trump Signs Executive Order Terminating All Federal Taxpayer Benefits Going To Illegal Aliens

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

President Trump signed his executive order, PRESERVING FEDERAL BENEFITS FOR AMERICAN CITIZENS, Wednesday night “to ensure taxpayer resources are not used to incentivize or support illegal immigration.”

Details of the EO are here.

Wednesday afternoon, Trump delivered remarks in front of a group of billionaires at the Faena Hotel during Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund’s FII PRIORITY Miami 2025 conference.

A White House official told Melugin that Trump’s executive order will direct federal agency and department heads to identify all federally funded programs that provide financial benefits to illegal aliens, and for them to “take corrective action.”

The measure is reportedly designed to ensure that any federal funds to states and localities “will not be used to support sanctuary policies or assist illegal immigration.”

While illegal aliens are not supposed to be eligible for welfare programs, the Biden-Harris regime abused loopholes to confer “status” to millions of non citizens as a part of their catch-and-release agenda, the Economic Policy Innovation Center pointed out in its December 2024 report.

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), there were 10.8 million encounters with illegal aliens between fiscal years 2021 and 2024. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the net immigration of illegal immigrants totaled 7.3 million between FY 2021 and 2024. In comparison, net migration of illegals was negative in the four years prior to this.

For the past four years, illegal aliens have been receiving welfare benefits from many different public assistance programs, including:

• Food Stamps (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, “SNAP”)

• Child nutrition programs

• Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

• Supplemental Security Income (SSI)

• Child Care and Development Block Grant (CCDBG)

• Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)

• Child Tax Credit (CTC)

• Obamacare Premium Tax Credit

• Obamacare cost sharing subsidies

• Medicare

• Medicaid

• Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)

• Pell Grants

• Student loans

• Head Start

• Public housing

• Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Fund (SLFRF)

The cost of welfare programs for noncitizens  is estimated to be in the billions.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimated that federal expenditures on illegal aliens in 2023 totaled nearly $66.5 billion, including more than $23 billion in federal medical expenditures and $11.6 billion in welfare benefits from Food Stamps, child nutrition, SSI, and other programs.

In its “Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration On United States Taxpayers 2023” report, FAIR estimated that the net cost of illegal immigration for the United States at the federal, state, and local levels at the start of 2023 was at least $150.7 billion.

The Manhattan Institute estimated that “every new illegal immigrant has an average net fiscal burden of about $130,000.”

The Institute reported that “the border crisis is expected to cost $1.15 trillion over the lifetime of the new immigrants who entered the country unlawfully, overstayed a visa, or were paroled.”

According to a House Homeland Security Committee November 2023 report,  Americans had already paid billions for hospital expenses, shelter, and the education of the children of illegal immigrants, including $5.4 billion in “emergency services for undocumented aliens” in FY 2022.

Trump’s executive order will “mandate improvements in eligibility verification to prevent federal benefits” from being spent so lavishly on people in the US illegally,” Melugin reported.

Meanwhile, U.S. Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks released a video Wednesday letting potential illegal border crossers know they are NOT welcome in the USA and will face “serious consequences” if caught.

“Our message is clear – the border is NOT open to illegal immigration,” Banks declared. 

“If you attempt to cross our borders you will be arrested, detained and processed for removal under U.S. law,” he added.

Banks noted that Border Patrol under Trump is “fully engaged” and using “advanced technology” to catch border crossers

“Do not believe smugglers’ lies,” he warned. “Crossing illegally is dangerous and you will face serious consequences—immediate removal, and a ban on reentry.”

The White House official said the order “shows Trump is committed to prioritizing that federal public health benefits go towards American citizens, including veterans.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 09:05

'Pure Evil': Hamas Hands Over Remains of Dead Israeli Mother, Toddler & Infant

Thursday was a somber and tragic day for Israel as the bodies of four slain Israeli hostages were returned by Hamas, 503 days after they were initially kidnapped in the Oct.7, 2023 raids on southern Israel and massacres.

"Hamas had said earlier in the week that it was handing over the bodies of Shiri Silberman Bibas, her two young sons Ariel and Kfir, and Oded Lifshitz, who was 83 at the time of his abduction," Times of Israel writes.

Via TOI

Ariel and Kfir Bibas were the two youngest hostages taken to Gaza, and were just 4-years old and 9-months old at the time.

Israeli officials were outraged that as usual, the handover ceremony in Khan Younis was done on a stage covered with propaganda posters. The bodies were transferred to the Red Cross, who then transported the coffins to Israel. All four had been initially taken from Kibbutz Nir Oz in southern Israel.

It's unclear how precisely the captives died, also in terms of when or where in captivity, but what's clear is the young had been taken alive:

The mother and children were taken captive from Kibbutz Nir Oz. Video of the abduction, with a terrified Shiri Bibas seen swaddling her two redheaded boys in a blanket and being whisked away by armed men, ricocheted around the world in the hours after the attack.

Yarden Bibas, the father, was abducted and held separately and released on Feb. 1, as part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that paused the 15-month-long war in Gaza. During the first phase, a total of 33 hostages are to be freed in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Eight of those 33 were said by Israel to be dead.

Below: the footage viewed around the world showing the family's kidnapping...

Each and every one of them will pay pic.twitter.com/b5IbdxlrDH

— נועה מגיד | Noa magid (@NoaMagid) February 19, 2025

Kfir was by far the youngest of about 30 total children taken hostage, and the baby's father, Yarden Bibas, had been  kidnapped but held separately, and released on Feb. 1 during the first phase of the current ceasefire and hostage release deal.

Israel's Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli blasted the whole handover ordeal of small coffins, saying "a society that cultivates a culture of murder and death has no right to exist."

Grim images of the handover of the bodies:

Aerial view shows dozens waving Hamas flags during the Red Cross’ takeover of Israeli hostages' bodies in Gaza https://t.co/LFrvafmy37 pic.twitter.com/f4arRJNXzK

— RT (@RT_com) February 20, 2025

"One of the West’s greatest failures is its refusal to acknowledge the existence of pure evil. We have raised generations to believe that monsters exist only in fairy tales, that there is no true right or wrong, and that all cultures are equal," the Likud minister wrote on X.

"And then comes this accursed day, a day of horror and shame, when an elderly man, a mother, and her two children: Oded Lipschitz, Shiri, Ariel, and Kfir Bibas — who were slaughtered by Hamas terrorists, paraded like trophies before a cheering, flag-waving crowd in Gaza. Pure evil. And against such evil, there can be no excuses, rationalizations, or compromises," he wrote in English.

Hamas has claimed it was actually Israeli bombs and attacks on Gaza which in the end killed the slain hostages, which they emphasized in propaganda posters featuring a bloody, monstrous Netanyahu...

Meanwhile, international reports as well as the Vatican have said that the death toll among Palestinians in Gaza has exceeded 44,000 - including 13,000 children - figures largely based on Gaza sources. American-supplied weapons were also heavily relied upon during the lengthy ground and air operation which has decimated the strip.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 08:45

DOGE Deep-State Demolition Path Evident In Soaring DC Jobless Claims

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose very modestly to 219k last week - still hovering around multi-decade lows

Source: Bloomberg

But, amid DOGE's demolition of the Deep State, we note one region that is seeing initial jobless claims soar this year... The District Of Columbia...

Source: Bloomberg

DC is the major standout year-to-date in terms of percentage rise in jobless claims...

But California dominated the decrease in jobless claims last week, while Kentucky and Tennessee saw the biggest rise...

Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims continue to hold near 4 year highs around 1.9 million Americans...

Source: Bloomberg

So, for now, the decline of employment in DC is NOT knocking into the rest of the US economy - does that mean they were completely unproductive?

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 08:37

Futures Fall On Tariff, Walmart Concerns; Gold Hits Another All-Time High

US equity futures slide from the latest record high as concerns around trade tariffs and a disappointing outlook from Walmart weighed on sentiment. As of 8:00am ET, contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 slipped about 0.3% as Mag7 names are mixed with Semis lower. Palantir was among the biggest losers in US premarket trading, on track to extend Wednesday’s 10% slide, after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth outlined plans to cut military spending by 8% over the coming years.  Walmart plunged 8%, the most in a year, after the company's guidance disappointed Wall Street.  Europe's Stoxx 50 continues its ascent rising 0.6% led by real estate and auto sector. The potential for a pausing of the Fed’s QT hinted in yesterday's FOMC minutes helped a late-day rally and Trump says a bigger China trade deal is possible but says there is a shot clock for Ukraine to find a deal. Bond yields are down 2-3bps with the USD weaker as the yen continues its recent surge. Commodities are seeing strength in both Ags and Metals; gold set a fresh all-time high above $2950. The macro data focus is on Jobless Claims and the Leading Indicator Index.

In premarket trading, Walmart plunged 8% after forecasting lower-than-expected profit for the full year, citing an uncertain economic environment. Some retail stocks decline after Walmart’s profit outlook: Costco (COST) -1.4%, Dollar Tree (DLTR) -1%, Target (TGT) -2%. Video game platform Vimeo and used car retailer Carvana also slumped in premarket after disappointing earnings. China’s Alibaba was a bright spot, adding more than 10% after third-quarter revenues beat estimates. Its result also helped lift Chinese e-commerce peers, with JD.com Inc. and PDD Holdings Inc. both rallying in premarket trading. Amazon is among the laggards in the Magnificent Seven stocks (GOOGL +0.04%, AMZN -0.6%, AAPL -0.3%, MSFT +0.2%, META -0.5%, NVDA +0.06% and TSLA +0.3%). Here are some other notable movers:

• Amplitude (AMPL) rises 17% after the software company forecast adjusted earnings per share for 2025 above the average analyst estimate. DA Davidson issues an upgrade, noting a faster turnaround in the business than anticipated.
• BioMarin (BMRN) jumps 9% after the drugmaker forecast adjusted profits and revenue for 2025 that impressed Wall Street. Cantor says the guidance sets the stage for another year of strong growth.
• Carvana (CVNA) drops 9% after the used-car retailer reported lower gross profit per vehicle and shrinking wholesale volumes for the latest quarter.
• Clearwater Analytics Holdings (CWAN) jumps 16% after the financial technology company provided a 1Q and year revenue forecasts that topped estimates.
• Grab Holdings (GRAB) slides 8% after the delivery company issued full-year revenue guidance that disappointed analysts.
• Herbalife (HLF) jumps 19% after the nutrition company reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat consensus estimates. The company named Stephan Gratziani as its CEO.
• NerdWallet (NRDS) rises 10% after the consumer-finance company forecast 1Q revenue that beat the average analyst estimate. The company announced the appointment of Jun Hyung Lee as CFO.
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) shares fall 4% and look set to extend losses after dropping 10% on Wednesday on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s plan to reduce projected US military spending by 8% over the next five years.
• Vimeo (VMEO) slumps 20% after the video platform forecast adjusted Ebitda for 2025 below what analysts expected, citing a desire to invest as much as $30 million incrementally in the business.
• Wayfair (W) falls 6% after posting a wider-than-expected 4Q loss.

The mixed corporate results added to market jitters over Donald Trump’s threats to widen trade tariffs and his wavering support for Ukraine and its European allies. The geopolitical tensions lifted gold prices to a new record above $2,954 an ounce.The dollar and Treasury yields slipped after Federal Reserve’s minutes revealed policymakers had discussed pausing or slowing its balance-sheet runoff.

“We saw a shift in the tone of the US on how they are going to approach the Russia-Ukraine environment, and this shifting tone is bringing about some uncertainty for markets,” said Shaniel Ramjee, investment manager at Pictet Asset Management.

Data on US weekly jobless claims are due later, with economists expecting the figure to hold more or less steady from the previous week. The report may also give an early insight into the impact of the Trump administration’s sweep of the federal workforce.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher after Wednesday’s decline, though sombre earnings capped the recovery. The
Stoxx 600 climbed 0.3% after logging its largest drop this year on Wednesday even as shares in Renault SA, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Airbus SE slipped after their results, while US-exposed defense stocks, such as BAE Systems Plc and Qinetiq Group Plc, also lost ground. Resource stocks are leading gains, while US-exposed defense names were undermined by US plans to cut military spending.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

• Centrica is the best-performing stock on the wider European benchmark, gaining as much as 11%, the most since 2020, after the British Gas owner reported strong results and an additional £500m share buyback.
• Schneider Electric gains as much as 8.3% on the back of an impressive fourth-quarter report, according to analysts, which see solid upside to current consensus after both key 4Q figures and 2025 outlook beat, with shares expected to show some relief after Chinese AI platform DeepSeek shook investor views.
• Repsol shares climb as much as 5.3 % after the Spanish oil company’s 4Q profit beat estimates.
• Lloyds shares rise as much as 4% to hit their highest level since late-2019 after the bank reported fourth-quarter earnings. Profits came in weaker than expected as it booked more provisions related to motor finance, but analysts at Shore said this is not a surprise.
• Carrefour shares drop as much as 8.2% in Paris to the lowest intraday level since May 2020, after the grocer issued 2025 guidance that analysts viewed as weak, with several predicting downgrades to profit expectations.
• Mercedes shares fall as much as 3.8% after the German automaker posts what Bernstein called “predictably weak” 2025 passenger cars outlook and its vans guidance missed estimates.
• Zealand Pharma shares drop as much as 7.3% after the Danish drug developer reported results for the full year and provided a forecast for net operating expenses in 2025.
• Airbus shares fall as much as 3.4%, the biggest intraday drop in three months, as analysts pointed to disappointing 2025 guidance from the plane maker, as well as an underwhelming result for its defense and space unit and dividend.
• BE Semi shares fall as much as 11% after the Dutch chip equipment firm reported quarterly orders that were nearly 30% below consensus estimates and provided guidance short of expectations.
• Tenaris shares fall as much as 4.5%, the most since August, on the back of its latest earnings. While the steel-tube and pipeline maker reported a solid beat on quarterly Ebitda, the company’s outlook is somewhat clouded by the threat of US tariffs.

Earlier in the session, stocks in Asia fell, as US-Ukraine tensions and the Fed's commentary on interest-rate cuts hurt sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.6%, the most in more than two weeks, with Hong Kong-listed shares among the biggest drags. Alibaba fell ahead of reporting earnings, while Meituan declined on a plan to expand its pension plan. Shares traded lower in Japan and Australia. The Fed’s openness to keeping rates on hold for longer, combined with increasing concerns about geopolitical tensions and trade wars, dented sentiment. Markets softened as investors watch whether remarks by US President Donald Trump that were highly critical of Ukraine’s leader might take “an ugly turn,” and what that would mean for Europe, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index falls 0.3% as the Japanese yen strengthens 0.9% against the dollar, rising to its strongest level since December amid growing speculation the Bank of Japan will hike rates sooner rather than later. The Aussie dollar also outperforms its G-10 peers, adding 0.6% against the greenback after hiring topped estimates. 

In rates, treasuries are steady, with US 10-year yields drop 3bps to 4.50%.  Treasuries briefly ticked higher after Bessent said terming out US debt is “a long way off.” Bunds also little changed; gilts lag by about 3bp in the 10-year sector, bunds by about 1bp. Japanese 10-year government bond yields hit its highest level since 2009 on expectations of a strong inflation print on Friday. US session includes weekly jobless claims data, 30-year TIPS auction and four Fed speakers. Treasury sells $9b 30-year TIPS in a new-issue auction at 1pm New York time

In commodities, oil prices tread water, with WTI near $72.20 a barrel. Spot gold rises $20 to a record high near $2,955/oz. Bitcoin rises 1% above $97,000.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes February Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly jobless claims (8:30am) and January Leading index (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (9:35am), Musalem (12:05pm), Barr (2:30pm) and Kugler (5pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,149.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 553.77
• MXAP down 0.6% to 188.41
• MXAPJ down 0.7% to 593.51
• Nikkei down 1.2% to 38,678.04
• Topix down 1.2% to 2,734.60
• Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 22,576.98
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,350.78
• Sensex down 0.3% to 75,733.72
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.1% to 8,322.82
• Kospi down 0.7% to 2,654.06
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.55%
• Euro little changed at $1.0432
• Brent Futures little changed at $76.10/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,952.14
• US Dollar Index down 0.19% to 106.97

Top Overnight News

• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he will announce fresh tariffs over the next month or sooner, adding lumber and forest products to previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Politico
• Trump said the golden age of the US is back and it is open for business, while he will be working with Congress to pass the largest tax cuts in US history and will dramatically cut taxes with no taxes on tips and hopefully no taxes on social security. Furthermore, Trump said they are considering a new concept where they will give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and with 20% to go to paying down debt.
• Trump said he is not happy with Boeing (BA) about Air Force One and could buy a used plane or a plane from another country, but also commented that he would not consider buying a plane from Airbus.
• Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins told reporters Wednesday afternoon that funding negotiations with Democrats “are not going well” as lawmakers stare down a government shutdown deadline in just over three weeks. Politico
• US House Speaker Johnson says he is waiting on a "few" developments that "might have a big effect" on the reconciliation bill: Punchbowl
• Traders are ditching America-first wagers just a month into Trump’s second term. Instead of extending the period of US exceptionalism in global equities, the S&P’s record run has still left it trailing European, Chinese and Mexican benchmarks. BBG
• Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) said the Fed can take time when weighing the next monetary policy move and US economic performance has been quite strong, while he added that US monetary policy remains restrictive, the US labor market is solid and inflation has eased but is still elevated.
• Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said inflation has come down but it is still too high and once inflation has come down, rates can come down more.
• US Pentagon later commented that the budget review aims to save about USD 50bln which will be spent on programs aligned with US President Trump's priorities.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said President Trump's goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service, according to a Fox interview cited by Reuters.
• TikTok makes global layoffs at trust and safety unit as part of restructuring, according to Reuters sources.
• Chinese officials on Thursday vowed to step up efforts to attract foreign direct investment as tensions with the US threaten to accelerate the exit of factories and research centers owned by multinational companies. China’s cabinet recently approved a 20-point action plan to stabilize investment from abroad. Nikkei
• The RBI is set to buy the biggest amount of bonds in four years to tackle a cash crunch in the banking system, according to economists. BBG
• More than 60% of Japanese companies — a record high percentage — plan to raise workers’ wages next year as they fight to recruit and retain staff. BBG
• The European Union is prepared to talk with the United States about reducing its 10 percent tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation aimed at avoiding a transatlantic trade war. Politico
• UK consumer confidence sank to the lowest level since Labour came to power, the British Retail Consortium said. Half of those surveyed expect the economy to worsen over the next three months. BBG
• Fed officials can take their time before considering any additional rate cuts, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said, citing the economy’s strength. Austan Goolsbee told an ABC affiliate that inflation is still too high. BBG
• Alibaba rose premarket after third-quarter revenue beat (ADR +6.5%). Revenue at Yuan 280B small beat with Est 277B, EPS at 21.4

Tariffs

• US President Trump said he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors, chips, pharma and probably lumber over the next month or sooner, while he is looking at a 25% tariff on lumber and forest products. Trump also said he is speaking to China on TikTok and later commented that a new trade deal with China is possible.
• EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said the EU is prepared to talk with the US about reducing its 10% tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation aimed at avoiding a transatlantic trade war, according to POLITICO.
• China Commerce Ministry says China has been doing its best to push for EU negotiations. Hoped that the EU side will heed industry's calls and promote bilateral investment cooperation through dialogue. Urges the US to stop misleading the American people and international community. Urges the US to handle US-Sino relations in an objective and rational manner

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly declined with sentiment dampened by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and after US President Trump's latest comments in which he repeated criticism against Ukrainian President Zelensky and said he will announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors, chips, pharma and probably lumber over the next month or sooner. ASX 200 was pressured with mining, materials and financials among the worst performing sectors, while participants digested a slew of earnings releases including from the likes of Rio Tinto and Fortescue. Nikkei 225 suffered from the ill effects of a firmer currency and slipped beneath the 39,000 level as Japan's 10yr yield initially climbed to its highest since November 2009. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the downbeat mood amid trade frictions and US tariff threats, while China unsurprisingly maintained the Loan Prime Rates. However, the mainland index eventually returned to flat territory and there were recent reports that US President Trump is eying a bigger and better trade deal with China that would include substantial investment and commitments for China to buy more US products.

Top Asian News

• PBoC holds a 2025 macro prudential work conference; will step up the analysis of macroeconomic and financial work. Real Estate: Will help the real estate market stop falling and stabilise. Support the construction of a new model of real estate development. Yuan: Will promote cross-border use of Yuan. Will develop Yuan offshore market. Will let currency swap and Yuan settlement play their roles.
• Times' Waterfield posts "Russia pressed the US to withdraw security guarantees from eastern European and Nordic Nato allies in Riyadh, a new “Yalta” to divide Europe into spheres of American and Russian influence, according to a senior Romanian official".
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Feb) 3.10% vs. Exp. 3.10% (Prev. 3.10%); 5Y 3.60% vs. Exp. 3.60% (Prev. 3.60%)
• RBNZ Governor Orr said he is feeling more positive about the inflation situation and expects the cash rate will be around 3% by year-end, while he added “in an environment of low and stable inflation”. Orr later commented that there would have to be an economic shock to cut by 50bps again.
• NetEase Inc (NTES) Q4 2024 (USD): EPS 1.89 (exp. 1.76), Revenue 3.70bln (exp. 3.71bln)
• Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Q4 2024 (CNY): EPS 21.39 (exp. 19.12.), Revenue 280.154bln (exp. 279.34bln)

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened mixed, but sentiment has gradually improved as the morning progressed to display a more positive picture in Europe, paring back the hefty losses seen in the prior session. European sectors hold a positive bias vs initially opening mixed. Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, with gains facilitated by strength in metals prices alongside post-earning upside in Anglo American (+3%) and Rio Tinto (+1%). Banks are towards the middle of the pile; Lloyds (+3.6%) saw its profit plunge 20%, but optimism stems from a GBP 1.7bln share buyback. For the Autos sector, both Mercedes (-2.5%) and Renault (-2.4%) dip after their results.

Top European News

• French President Macron to visit the US early next week, it is unclear whether this will be a joint meeting with UK PM Starmer, is likely US President Trump will meet them separately, according to reporter Rahman.
• Nordea believes the Riksbank will not deliver any further rate cuts and will remain at 2.25% for the entire horizon (prev. expected a cut to 2.00% in May); due to inflation being higher than expected.

FX

• USD is softer vs. all peers with DXY hampered by strength in the JPY on account of widening yield differentials. US yields were knocked lower post-FOMC minutes after the account showed various participants believed it might be appropriate to pause/slow balance sheet runoff. Today's Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee, Musalem, Jefferson & Barr. Elsewhere, today's other scheduled highlights include Treasury Secretary Bessent at 12:00GMT/07:00ET on Bloomberg TV with weekly claims and Philly Fed data to follow thereafter. DXY has returned to a 106 handle but is currently holding above Wednesday's 106.87 low.
• EUR is slightly firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than most peers following losses on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the trade front, EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic said the EU is prepared to talk with the US about reducing its 10% tariff on cars as part of a broader negotiation. EUR/USD is currently stuck within yesterday's 1.0400-61 parameters.
• USD/JPY retreated overnight amid initial gains in Japanese yields (and softness in their US counterparts post-FOMC minutes) alongside the negative risk appetite in Tokyo. The pair breached below the 150 mark in early European trade; further downside brings into play its 9th December low at 149.68.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser degree than peers. UK newsflow for today has been light in a week where markets have digested firmer than expected labour market data and a mixed inflation report. Direction for Cable may be dictated more by the USD leg of the equation; currently tucked within Wednesday's 1.2562-1.2639.
• Antipodeans are both notably stronger vs. the USD with AUD bolstered by stronger-than-expected jobs data in Australia in which employment change topped forecasts at 44k (exp. 20k) and was solely fuelled by full-time jobs. Sentiment was also bolstered by comments from US President Trump that a new trade deal with China is possible.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1712 vs exp. 7.2856 (prev. 7.1705).

Fixed Income

• USTs are modestly firmer. Action for USTs was pronounced in the later part of the US session given FOMC Minutes, 20yr supply, Trump/tariff updates and a handful of speakers. Since, US-specific newsflow has slowed a touch and we are now largely awaiting further details on Trump’s latest remarks, US data, Fed speak and the US Treasury Secretary. As it stands, USTs are holding toward session highs of 109-04+ having eclipsed Wednesday’s 109-00 best.
• Bunds are in the red. Bear-steepened on Wednesday before lifting off worst in-fitting with Treasuries, a move which slowed in APAC trade but briefly recommenced early doors this morning to a 131.63 peak. Though, this proved fleeting with the constructive European risk tone, ongoing reassessment following Schnabel’s hawkish remarks on Wednesday and the implications of Trump’s latest rhetoric weighing. Given this, Bunds continue to bear-steepen with the German 10yr yield notching an incremental new 2.55% WTD peak.
• On auctions, Spain was strong but spurred no move while the record French offering saw a 5x cover for the 2029 line and the top-amount sold. Lifting OATs from a 123.00 low by 15 ticks, sending them just into the green for the session.
• Gilts are echoing EGBs. The arguments around tariffs are much the same. Specifics include confirmation that UK PM Starmer will be visiting the US next week to meet with US President Trump. Potentially of note, initially reporting around this intimated it could be a joint visit with French President Macron - updates since suggest this is not the case. Currently at the lower-end of a 91.96-92.29 band.
• Italian Foreign Minister says they need European bond issuance to finance defence spending.
• Spain sells EUR 5.5bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.70% 2030 & 3.55% 2033 Bono.
• France sells EUR 13.5bln vs exp. EUR 11.5-13.5bln 2.4% 2028, 0.0% 2029, 2.75% 2030 OAT.

Commodities

• A choppy session for crude prices thus far with the complex subdued in early European trade after experiencing gains in late APAC trade, and following Wednesday's indecisive performance amid geopolitical uncertainty due to the recent US turnaround in foreign policy and with prices contained after bearish private sector inventory data. Brent resides in a 75.72-76.30/bbl range.
• Subdued action in natural gas with prices in Europe subdued by the prospect of milder weather in the upcoming period. Earlier today, a Russian attack damaged Ukrainian gas production facilities, according to the Energy Minister.
• Precious metals trade higher across the board amid the ongoing geopolitics, tariffs, USD weakness from FOMC minutes, and broader momentum after spot gold hit a fresh record high this morning. Spot gold topped USD 2,950/oz to a USD 2,954.95/oz peak at the time of writing (vs low 2,933.85/oz).
• Base metals trade higher across the board following a choppy APAC session but with the complex later supported by the softer Dollar and as sentiment during early European trade tilts higher. 3M LME copper resides in a 9,452.95-9,547.00/t range at the time of writing.
• Russian attack damaged Ukrainian gas production facilities, according to the Energy Minister. Brent resides in a 75.72-76.30/bbl range.
• US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +3.3mln (exp. +2.2mln), Distillate -2.7mln (exp. -3.5mln), Gasoline +2.8mln (exp. +0.8mln) Cushing +1.7mln.
• US President Trump said they will fill up the SPR fast and will cut taxes on domestic producers of oil and gas.

Geopolitics

• Russia's Kremlin says if the UK were to deploy 30,000 European troops in Ukraine, it would be a concern.
• Russia's Kremlin say they have resumed talks on the prisoner exchange with the US
• Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet Thursday in Kyiv with US envoy Kellogg and said it is crucial that this discussion and the overall cooperation with the US remain constructive, according to Axios' Ravid.
• US President Trump said he spoke with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky to end the war, while he repeated language that suggested Ukraine started the war, as well as stated that Zelensky could have come to talks if he wanted to and had done a terrible job. Furthermore, Trump said he hopes to see a ceasefire soon and separately noted a deal can be made with Russia, while he also stated that they are going to resurrect the critical mineral deal with Ukraine and that Greenland is needed from a security standpoint.
• Russian Deputy Chief of Staff said Ukraine's losses exceeded one million military since the start of the military operation 3 years ago, according to Al Jazeera.
• Russian general staff said more than 800 square km of the Kursk region were taken back from Ukrainian forces which is about 64% of the total taken by Ukraine and Russia is advancing in all directions in the Kursk region.
• Russia conducted an attack on Kyiv on Wednesday evening in which powerful explosions were reported to shake the capital, while authorities reported air defences were in action, according to Kyiv Post.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000
• 08:30: Feb. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.85m
• 08:30: Feb. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 14.3, prior 44.3
• 10:00: Jan. Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%

Fed speakers

• 09:35: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Moderated Q&A
• 12:05: Fed’s Musalem Speaks to Economic Club of NY
• 14:30: Fed’s Barr Speaks on Supervision and Regulation
• 17:00: Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Inflation, Phillips Curve

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a divergent performance over the last 24 hours, with US assets continuing to reach fresh highs, even as the rest of the world struggled on the back of President Trump’s tariff threats and concerns about Ukraine. By the close, that meant the S&P 500 (+0.24%) was at another record, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-1.8bps) fell to 4.53%. But over in Europe it was a very different story, as the STOXX 600 (-0.91%) suffered its biggest daily decline of 2025 so far, and a bond sell-off sent 10yr yields up to a 3-week high across much of the continent. Moreover, that slump has continued in Asia overnight, as the Nikkei (-1.30%) and the Hang Seng (-0.93%) have both lost ground, and the 10yr Japanese government bond yield has hit a post-2009 high of 1.43%. So the moves mark a pretty big shift from the trend so far in 2025, as US risk assets have generally underperformed their global counterparts, particularly in Europe.

As a reminder, the latest slump for European assets came as they reacted to President Trump’s tariff threats on Tuesday night. That’s where he said he’d impose automobile tariffs “in the neighbourhood of 25%”, and that for semiconductors and pharmaceuticals “it’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over a course of a year”. And even though President Trump said that the tariff rate on autos would probably be announced on April 2, the sector quickly saw decent losses in anticipation of that. For instance, Germany’s DAX (-1.80%) experienced the biggest decline of the major European indices, with automakers like Volkswagen (-2.78%) and BMW (-2.28%) underperforming. Similarly in the US, automakers like Stellantis (-2.11%) and General Motors (-0.69%) also lost ground. And there were struggles for trade-sensitive areas more broadly, as the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (which includes companies traded in the US which do a majority of business in China) fell -0.38%.

European markets also weren’t helped by the latest developments over Ukraine, as there was a reversal in hopes for a resolution of the conflict. That followed a social media post from President Trump that was highly critical of Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, referring to him as “a dictator without elections”. This followed President Zelenskiy’s comments earlier in the day that US proposals on Ukrainian minerals were “not a serious conversation”. So that backdrop led to a renewed underperformance for regional assets, including Ukraine dollar bonds and CEE currencies.

There wasn’t much respite for European fixed income either, where yields on 10yr bunds (+6.4bps), OATs (+8.4bps) and BTPs (+9.4bps) all hit a 3-week high. One factor behind that were comments from the ECB’s Isabel Schnabel, who said in an FT interview that they should begin to discuss a “pause or halt” to rate cuts, and that inflation risks were becoming “skewed to the upside”. So even though another rate cut is still widely expected at the next meeting in two weeks’ time, there’s now more doubt among investors about whether that’ll be followed up by many more. Indeed, overnight index swaps are only pricing in 36bps of rate cuts by the meeting-after-next in April, meaning that one 25bp cut is fully priced, but then there’s only a 44% probability of a second cut by then.

On top of Schnabel’s comments, investors also had to grapple with the ongoing prospect of higher defence spending and more borrowing. We should get a better idea on this after the German election on Sunday, where there’s a lot of attention on whether the next government will relax the constitutional debt brake. Our economists have published an extensive primer on this weekend’s vote (link here), which runs over what the different outcomes would mean for the likelihood of a fiscal regime change.

Here in the UK, gilts lost ground as well after the January CPI print surprised on the upside. It showed headline inflation jumping up to +3.0% (vs +2.8% expected), which is its highest level in 10 months. Moreover, the core CPI reading was even higher, jumping up to a 9-month high of +3.7%, in line with expectations. So just like their counterparts on the continent, 10yr gilt yields (+5.3bps) hit a 3-week high of 4.61%, which came as investors dialled back the likelihood of rate cuts from the Bank of England. And more widely, there are still several global inflationary pressures in the pipeline, as Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+0.24%) moved up to a fresh two-year high yesterday.

Over in the US, Treasury yields moved lower after the minutes of the Fed’s January meeting featured a discussion about slowing the pace of QT. Specifically, it said that given “the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of this event”. For more on the balance sheet discussions, see our US rates strategists’ reaction here. On rates, the minutes echoed the signal that there was no hurry to adjust policy, as “many participants noted that the committee could hold the policy rate at a restrictive level if the economy remained strong and inflation remained elevated.” But with the QT news, that meant by the close, 10yr yields were down -1.7bps to 4.53%, while 2yr yields were down -3.8bps to 4.27%. That’s continued overnight as well, with the 10yr yield down another -2.0bps to 4.51%.

US equities also saw a much better performance than in Europe, with the S&P 500 (+0.24%) advancing to a new record. The advance was led by defensive sectors, with health care (+1.26%) and consumer staples (+0.79%) leading the way, while energy stocks (+0.70%) also outperformed as WTI crude oil prices (+0.56% to $72.25/bbl) advanced for the second day in a row. However, homebuilders saw a significant decline after the latest housing data surprised on the downside. In particular, housing starts fell to an annualised pace of 1.366m in January (vs. 1.390m expected), which was a -9.8% drop from the previous month.

Overnight in Asia, markets have continued to lose ground, with all the major equity indices moving lower. In Japan, that’s come amidst mounting expectations of future rate hikes, which have pushed the 10yr yield up to a post-2009 high of 1.43%, whilst the Japanese Yen has moved up to its strongest against the dollar so far in 2025, at 150.30. The Nikkei itself is also down -1.30%, and consensus is expecting headline inflation to jump up to +4.0% in tomorrow’s CPI report, the highest in two years.

Elsewhere in the region, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down -1.14%, which follows a stronger-than-expected employment report for January out this morning. That showed employment up +44k (vs. +20k expected), so investors dialled back the likelihood of another rate cut from the RBA in response, and the Australian Dollar has strengthened +0.28% against the US Dollar overnight. Elsewhere in the region, those equity declines are also evident, with the Hang Seng (-0.93%), the KOSPI (-0.84%), the CSI 300 (-0.25%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.03%) all losing ground as well. And looking forward, even US equity futures are pointing towards a slip back from their record highs, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.29%.

To the day ahead, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Conference Board’s leading index for January. Over in the Euro Area, we’ll also get the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, Musalem, Barr and Kugler, along with the ECB’s Makhlouf and Nagel. Lastly, today’s earnings releases include Walmart.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 08:24

Walmart Plunges Most In Year On Dismal Earnings Forecast

Walmart exceeded Bloomberg analysts' expectations for fourth-quarter US comparable sales and adjusted earnings per share. However, its first-quarter and full-year profit guidance missed, citing ongoing pressure from its product mix and an uncertain economic environment. Shares are down nearly 8% in premarket trading as the one-year non-stop rally hits a wall. 

The discount retailer and the nation's largest grocer—recognized by Goldman as offering the best prices for US consumers—reported a 20% surge in e-commerce sales for the holiday quarter. The results included $180.6 billion in total revenue and $7.9 billion in operating income, exceeding Wall Street expectations.

Here's a snapshot of fourth-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):

• Total US comparable sales ex-gas +4.9%, estimate +4.66%

• Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4.6%, estimate +4.36%

• Sam's Club US comparable sales ex-gas +6.8%, estimate +4.99%

• Adjusted EPS 66c, estimate 65c

• Change in US E-Commerce sales +20%, estimate +17.9%

• Change in Sam's Club e-commerce sales +24%, estimate +11.7%

More from Walmart's earning release: 

However, Walmart's earnings guidance for the first quarter and full year fell short of expectations, citing ongoing pressure from its product mix.

The retailer forecasted full-year adjusted earnings per share between $2.50 and $2.60, below the consensus estimate of $2.77.

• Sees adjusted EPS $2.50 to $2.60, estimate $2.77 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees net sales +3% to +4%

For the first quarter forecast, Walmart expects adjusted EPS of $0.57 to $0.58, missing analysts' forecast of $0.65.

• Sees adjusted EPS 57c to 58c, estimate 65c

• Sees sales +3% to +4%

The dismal outlook of Bentonville, Arkansas-based Walmart spooked the market. Shares are down 8% in premarket trading, set for the largest daily decline since mid-November 2023.

This selling jeopardizes the 77% over the past 12 months.

John David Rainey, the company's chief financial officer, told Bloomberg in an interview on Thursday that the current guidance doesn't include the potential impact of tariffs of President Trump's broadening trade war. Walmart imports a tremendous amount of goods from China and food from Mexico. 

"We'll work with suppliers. We'll lean into our private brands" to keep prices low, Rainey said. 

"I would describe the consumer as steady," Rainey said, adding that spending is far from a complete rebound. He said general merchandise sales are improving and demand from the holiday season was in line with in-house expectations. 

The multi-year inflation storm and resulting value wars among retailers have placed Walmart as the winner with its pricing power, able to offer consumers the best deals. Wealthy consumers have also traded to the retailer in the last year. 

CEO Doug McMillon wrote in a statement, "We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an ecommerce business driven by faster delivery times," adding, "We're gaining market share, our top line is healthy, and we're in great shape with inventory."

Given the current guidance doesn't include the potential impact of tariffs, the big question is whether the retailer will pass those extra costs along to the consumer and still be able to offer the best prices. 

*  *  *

Walmart's full earnings release: 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 08:05

Trump Cannot Allow A Declining Europe To Drag The US Down

Authored by Connor O'Keefe via The Mises Institute,

Last week, leaders of European governments got very upset with the new Trump administration.

• First, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said a return to pre-2014 Ukraine-Russia borders was an “unrealistic objective” in the coming peace negotiations and that European leaders shouldn’t assume American troops would be present on the continent forever.

• Then, Vice President JD Vance gave a speech at a security conference in Germany in which he admonished European governments for repeatedly violating the liberal democratic principles they loudly proclaim to defend. He cited the recent reversal of an election in Romania after the result went against what the ruling regime and its Western European allies wanted, as well as a plethora of crackdowns on political dissent from some of Washington’s closest allies on the continent.

• Finally, President Trump announced that the US government would begin direct talks with the Russian government to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Those talks began on Tuesday without any involvement from other European governments, including Ukraine.

Needless to say, these statements and developments greatly angered European leaders who were evidently convinced the US would continue to station troops, send weapons, and provide funding for the continent’s security while letting the governments act however they wanted and while treating them as the primary parties in the proxy war we’ve been bankrolling.

By all indications, the Trump administration’s goal here is to pressure European governments to spend more of their own taxpayers’ money to fund NATO. 

Which is unfortunate, because Europe is deep in a self-inflicted decline right now, and US taxpayers should not be forced to take part in it at all.

From an American perspective, the decline of Europe is tragic as some of the best aspects of our institutions and culture can be drawn back to the period of Europe’s rise.

After the fall of the Roman Empire, Western Europe splintered into many small political units. The relatively small territories of these states, along with the presence of strong non-state institutions like the Church and an international merchant class, meant power was highly decentralized.

As scholars like Ralph Raico, Nathan Rosenberg, and L.E. Birdzel Jr. have demonstrated, the highly decentralized set-up of Europe in the Middle Ages was the primary factor in generating the prosperity that went on to give the West more power and a safer, more comfortable standard of living than any other civilization in history. A respect for private property rights virtually unseen up to that point helped to create a justice system that only compounded the West’s success.

Unfortunately, the immense amount of wealth also allowed governments to siphon some of it off and grow very powerful. Chief among them was the British government, which used its people’s wealth to build the first truly globe-spanning empire. The British and other European ruling classes presented their lavish governments and foreign expansionism as a sign of national glory. But the rise of these large, powerful states represented the steady abandonment of the very institutions that had fueled Europe’s growth.

The astonishing productivity of the Industrial Revolution kept the party going through the 1800s. But, famously, a series of war guarantees pulled nearly all of Europe into the largest, bloodiest war the world had seen in 1914. The sheer brutality of the war and the decisive defeat of the Central Powers—brought about by the US’s unnecessary entrance—set the stage for the rise of the Nazis and the second world war. And WWII obliterated what remained of European power.

In the decades since, much of Western Europe has sunk to the level of becoming de facto vassals of Washington, DC while moving even further away from decentralized institutions and a respect for private property rights. Which brings us to the European situation that Trump, Vance, and Hegseth confronted last week as they took the reins of the American government.

Western European governments have instituted totalitarianism in the name of averting the rise of totalitarianism and built up another large network of war guarantees in the name of preventing another world war. 

The European establishment is seemingly still so traumatized from WWII that it acts like history began in 1933 and ignores all the important lessons from before that date.

After Vance’s comments last week, European officials went in front of the media and mounted a passionate defense of their totalitarian crackdown on dissent.

And, as Trump finally moves to end US involvement in the war in Ukraine, European leaders are scrambling to find ways to independently double down on the same security set-up that helped bring the war about in the first place.

The decline of Europe is a sad thing to watch. 

But the reaction from European officials to Vance calling them out on some aspects of that decline confirms that the people currently in charge over there will not be changing direction any time soon.

If Europe is really set on shrinking back into obscurity through domestic totalitarianism, economic stagnation, or by setting off a new continent-wide war, American taxpayers should not be forced to help.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 07:20

How USAID Assisted The Corporate Takeover Of Ukrainian Agriculture

Authored by John Klar via the Brownstone Institute,

A recent essay titled “The Real Purpose of Net Zero” by Jefferey Jaxon posited that Europe’s current war against farmers in the name of preventing climate change is ultimately designed to inflict famine. Jaxon is not speculating on globalist motives; he is warning humanity of a rapidly unfolding reality that is observable in the perverse lies against cows, denigration of European farmers as enemies of the Earth, and calls by the WHO, WEF, and UN for a plant-based diet dependent entirely on GMOs, synthetic fertilizers, and agrichemicals. 

Revelations about the evil doings of the Orwellian-monikered “United States Agency of International Development” (USAID) reveal a roadmap to totalitarian control unwittingly funded by America’s taxpaying proles. USAID’s clandestine machinations have long focused on controlling local and global food supplies as “soft colonization” by multinational chemical, agricultural, and financial corporations. European farmers revolting against climate, wildlife, and animal rights policies are harbingers of this tightening globalist noose.

The roots of the current globalist plan to “save humanity from climate change” link directly to the infamous Kissinger Report, which called to control world food supplies and agriculture as part of a globalist collaboration between nation-states and NGOs to advance US national security interests and “save the world” from human overpopulation using “fertility reduction technologies.” Kissinger’s 1974 Report was created by USAID, the CIA, and various federal agencies, including the USDA.

Fast forward to the 2003 Iraq War, justified using fear-mongering propaganda about weapons of mass destruction and neo-conservative malarky about rescuing the Iraqi people. The US-led occupation of Iraq became a rapacious profiteering smorgasbord for colonizing corporations husbanded by USAID. Iraq is heir to the birthplace of human civilization, made possible by early Mesopotamian agriculture: many of the grains, fruits, and vegetables that now feed the world were developed there. Iraq’s farmers saved back 97% of their seed stocks from their own harvests before the US invasion. Under Paul Bremer, Rule 81 (never fully implemented) sought to institute GMO cropping and patented seed varieties, as Cargill, Monsanto, and other corporations descended upon the war-ravaged nation using American tax dollars and USAID.

That playbook was more quietly implemented during the Ukraine War, once again orchestrated by USAID. Before the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, Ukraine was the breadbasket of Europe, prohibiting GMO technologies and restricting land ownership to Ukrainians. Within months of US intervention, USAID assisted in the dismantling of these protections in the name of “land reforms,” free markets, financial support, improved agricultural efficiency, and rescuing the Ukrainian people. In just two years, over half of Ukraine’s farmland became the property of foreign investors. GMO seeds and drone technology were “donated” by Bayer Corporation, and companies such as GMO seed-seller Syngenta and German chemical manufacturer BASF became the dominant agricultural “stakeholders” in war-torn Ukraine. Russia may withdraw, but Ukraine’s foreign debts, soil degradation, and soft colonization will remain.

The UN, WTO, WHO, and WEF all conspire to peddle a false narrative that cows and peasant farmers are destroying the planet, and that chemical-dependent GMO monocropping, synthetic fertilizers, and patented fake meats and bug burgers must be implemented post haste (by force if necessary) to rescue humanity. The argument that pesticides and synthetic fertilizers (manufactured from natural gas, aka methane) are salvific is patently false. They are, however, highly profitable for chemical companies like Bayer, Dow, and BASF.

Jefferey Jaxon is exactly correct. The Netherlands committed to robust agricultural development following a Nazi embargo that deliberately inflicted mass famine following their collaboration with Allied Forces in Operation Market Garden. France boasts the highest cow population in all of Europe. Ireland’s culture is tightly linked to farming as part of its trauma during the (British-assisted) Irish Potato Famine. The corporate/NGO cabal now uprooting and targeting farmers in these nations and across the EU in the name of staving off climate change and preserving wildlife is a direct outcropping of Kissinger’s grand dystopian scheme launched through USAID in 1974. 

Americans watch European farmer protests from afar, largely oblivious that most all of US agriculture was absorbed by the Big Ag Borg generations ago. Currency control linked to a (political, environmental, and economic) social credit scorecard promises the fruition of Kissinger’s demonic plan: “Control the food, control the people.”

Modern humans suffer a double hubris that blinds them to the contemplation of the truth of Jaxon’s hypothesis: a cultish trust in technology, coupled with an irrational faith in their self-perceived moral superiority to past civilizations (Wendell Berry calls this “historical pride”). Yet, as long as mankind has had the capacity to harm another for personal gain, humans have devised ways to control food for power or profit. Siege warfare generally depended on starving defenders of castle walls into submission. 

Even if globalist food control proposals are well-intentioned, a monolithic, monocultured, industrial-dependent worldwide food system is a lurking humanitarian disaster. Berry observed:

In a highly centralized and industrialized food-supply system there can be no small disaster. Whether it be a production “error” or a corn blight, the disaster is not foreseen until it exists; it is not recognized until it is widespread. 

The current push to dominate global food production using industrial systems is the cornerstone of complete globalist dominion over all of humanity. The “Mark of the Beast” without which no American will buy or sell goods – including guns, bullets, or factory-grown hamburgers and cricket patties – is mere steps away. Mr. Jaxon is correct that these leaders “know these basic historical and current facts,” and that “[f]armers are becoming endangered because of government [climate] policy … and it’s being allowed to happen.” USAID has been actively seeding and watering this dystopia for decades.

Klaus Schwab and Bill Gates are as fully cognizant of this fundamental truth as Henry Kissinger was in 1974. USAID has aided all three. Having lost almost all of their small farms over the last century, Americans are well ahead of Europeans in their near-complete dependence on industrial food. 

That’s the plan. 

John Klar is an attorney, farmer, food rights activist, and author from Vermont. John is a staff writer for Liberty Nation News and Door to Freedom. His substack is Small Farm Republic.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 06:30

AfD-Supporting Lawyer Fined €3,000 For Criticizing German Govt, Has Gun License Revoked, Faces Disbarment

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The debate over free speech in Germany has taken a new turn following the case of Markus Roscher, a 61-year-old lawyer from Braunschweig, who was fined €3,000 for criticizing the government’s heating law.

Roscher described Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as “malicious failures” in a post on X back in 2021. He was subsequently issued a penalty notice under the controversial Paragraph 188 of the German Criminal Code, which criminalized defamation against individuals engaged in public political life.

Roscher, who has been active on X for over 14 years and is well accustomed to the legal boundaries surrounding political debate, insists that his post was within the bounds of political criticism.

“I actually know myself to be quite well within the red lines,” he told Bild. 

“You have to formulate things pointedly to be heard. The lines of freedom of opinion have slipped with the red-green government (ed. the coalition of Social Democrats and Greens).” 

He further described his hefty fine as a “scandal for freedom of expression.”

Paragraph 188, introduced in April 2021, criminalizes insults against politicians if they significantly hinder their public work. It was initially passed under a coalition government of the CDU and SPD but has been increasingly enforced under the current administration. The law has led to numerous prosecutions against individuals who have criticized government officials online.

In Roscher’s case, the penalty order claimed that his statements portrayed politicians as “corrupt, stupid, and arrogant,” constituting “abusive criticism” that allegedly impeded their political activity. 

Will memes be targeted in Germany next?

"Misinformation" expert hints that restrictions are coming.

"There is no right to be heard on social media...This is the problem of the next few years, especially when it comes to ambiguous or cryptic communication, such as memes." pic.twitter.com/OY6kUzUsPK

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) January 16, 2025

Following the charge, authorities also moved to revoke his gun license, citing “unreliability.”

Furthermore, his case was forwarded to the Kassel and Braunschweig Bar Associations, raising concerns that he could face professional sanctions. 

“If I now claim the same or something similar and get another conviction exceeding 90 daily rates, I can lose my license,” Roscher warned.

“Then you get a job ban as a 61-year-old lawyer!”

Roscher believes that his support for the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has played a pivotal role in his prosecution. He asserts that the penalty order was politically motivated, arguing that he stood little chance in a legal battle, which led him to pay the fine without challenging it in the courts.

The scrutiny of political affiliations within Germany’s public sector was also highlighted by a leaked memo last month revealing that federal police officers who join or actively support the AfD could face disciplinary action, including dismissal. The memo cited a decree by Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, explicitly stating that officers suspected of affiliation with the party could see their employment terminated.

The controversy has drawn international attention from U.S. billionaire Elon Musk and most recently from U.S. Vice President JD Vance, who labeled Germany’s online speech laws this week as “Orwellian.” Responding to a CBS “60 Minutes” interview with German prosecutors, Vance argued that Germany was effectively “criminalizing speech” and urged Europeans to “reject this lunacy.”

Roscher’s case is part of a broader pattern of speech-related prosecutions in Germany. 

Other recent incidents include a Lower Saxony man, Daniel Kindl, who was fined €1,800 for allegedly insulting Green Party MP Janosch Dahmen in an online post. Kindl’s remark, which dismissed Dahmen’s concerns about an alleged attack on Robert Habeck, was deemed criminal by prosecutors.

Several other individuals have faced legal consequences for online speech. A pensioner was fined €800 for a satirical comment about Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, joking that she had hit her head too many times on a trampoline. Another was arrested for retweeting a meme that called Economy Minister Robert Habeck an “idiot,” classified as a “politically motivated right-wing crime.” A Bavarian woman was fined €6,000 for calling Baerbock a “hollow brat” but was later acquitted after a lengthy legal process. Additionally, a civil engineer was sentenced to 30 days in jail after failing to appeal a fine for calling SPD politician Manuela Schwesig a “storyteller.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 05:00

"A Sinister Goal": U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright Lashes Out About UK's Unrealistic Net Zero Targets

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Monday condemned the 2050 net-zero emissions pledge as a "sinister goal" and criticized the U.K.'s clean energy policies, according to Reuters.

Former President Joe Biden set the target in 2021, relying on subsidies to boost clean energy and electric vehicles in the fight against climate change.

Wright said, speaking at a London conference: "Net Zero 2050 is a sinister goal. It's a terrible goal. The aggressive pursuit of it - and you're sitting in a country that has aggressively pursued this goal - has not delivered any benefits, but it's delivered tremendous costs."

At the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship event, Wright emphasized his top priority: for the government to "get out of the way" of oil, gas, and coal production.

The Reuters report states that Wright highlighted the Trump administration’s approval of the Commonwealth LNG export terminal in Louisiana—the first since Biden’s pause last year—stating, "We ended the pause and approved the Commonwealth LNG export terminal last Friday, and many more in the queue." Wright underscored hydrocarbons' necessity, adding, "The world simply runs on hydrocarbons, and for most of their uses, we don't have replacements."

Criticizing Britain's net-zero push, he argued it had harmed living standards and merely shifted emissions abroad. "No one's going to make an energy-intensive product in the United Kingdom any more. It's just been displaced somewhere else," he said, calling the policy "lunacy" that is impoverishing your own citizens in a delusion that this is somehow going to make the world a better place."

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, however, has made clean energy central to his economic strategy, focusing on offshore wind for job creation and growth. Former President Donald Trump also weighed in earlier, urging the U.K. to "open up" North Sea oil and gas and scrap wind farms.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/20/2025 - 04:15

USAID, Soft Power, And How Solzhenitsyn Predicted This Crisis

Via OneLeggedParrot.com,

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) existed to fan America’s post-World War II brand as the guardian of democracy in the world. It was mostly an info-op euphemistically called soft power. 

The mission meant that it occasionally helped people, because that made America look good. The “AID” moniker was a rhetorical trick, though. USAID handled some of the dirtiest jobs of American hegemony, like union busting, censorship, and election fixing. 

Assassinations were left to the CIA, for the most part. 

Last week, USAID was shut down and everyone except a skeleton staff was laid off. Its employees emerged from the woodwork, quite offended. Shutting down the agency hit a lot of Washingtonians right in their “I’m important and the world needs me!” glass jaws.

If you are a certain kind of mediocrity who has known only the circle of money and influence Washington provides, there are oodles of self-regard when a great and grand wizard at the Department of State confers on you the title Doctor of Thinkology.

“Now go, therefore, and topple the government of Bangladesh!” – is a fair summary of the valedictory. That is not an exaggeration. Soft power did that recently.

Americans are marinated from their infancy in movies, media, and television. The foreign policy establishment occupies the Walter Mitty role in the American empire. Since at least 1948, Washington bureaucrats have been on a hero’s journey built around the conceit that the United States exercises power always and only to save the world. 

Having a steel desk in a stone building with discretionary control over a budget line item made you a Star Trooper wherever the Empire decided to strike back. Then 2016 happened. 

Trump won the presidency on the promise that he would destroy Washington’s permanent bureaucracy – calling it the deep state. Minor state functionaries responded by saying Vladimir Putin was behind him. 

In the clown cuckoo land of Washington, the Star Troopers needed to be fighting a diabolical mastermind with a Russian accent, or it was just not self-affirming. Getting mean-tweeted at by a reality show host with a wild haircut threatened their delusions of grandeur more than losing wars, which they had been doing regularly for 70 years.

The FBI officially launched Crossfire Hurricane on July 31, 2016. A few days later, the secret agent who opened the investigation texted his secret agent lover, “We’ll stop” Trump. Out of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, Trump and Putin had to walk into Peter Strzok and Lisa Paige’s. 

And, too, “It’s Putin and we’ll get him,” sounds better whispered over a pillow at the Fairmont Hotel in Gaithersburg, Maryland than, “people in mesh hats are exercising their democratic prerogative to stop funding our pretend world, and we may want to stay out of this one.”

At one point last week, Mike Benz – who has inhabited X for years as the bugle blowing Gunga Din of USAID’s mendacity – connected nepo baby turned playground mean girl Liz Cheney to USAID. Elon Musk retweeted Benz. 

To which Liz Cheney herself responded: 

Damn right, @Elon. I’m proud of what America did to win the Cold War, defeat Soviet communism, and defend democracy. Our nation stood for freedom. You may be unfamiliar with that part of our history since you weren’t yet an American citizen.

Uh-huh. After she graduated from college, Liz Cheney’s then Defense Secretary dad got her a job at USAID in Washington, and she thinks she ended the Cold War. 

She went from there to law school and then in 2002 her Vice President dad got her appointed deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, where she and her dad proceeded to wreak havoc. 

She now adorably thinks that starship lassoing Elon Musk lacks street cred because his daddy never got him a job where he stopped communism.

The fake world where Dick and Liz defend democracy, and Peter Strzok and Lisa Paige bang to Putin fantasies – the world of the Washington beltway – was hatched in the aftermath of World War II. 

It is an odd mix of propaganda, media, technology, and the storytelling method known as the hero’s journey. 

The info-op was run out of USAID and other federal agencies, and it was meant to convince the world that the United States is a force for good that opposes tyranny wherever it finds it. In some ways, it worked. 

For all anyone knows, Western Europe would have turned Communist if America did not present a “shining city on a hill” alternative. And, okay, fix elections and control information.

Meddling in other countries was only ever meant to win the peace, though. 

When the peace was finally won in 1991, the minor functionaries started hatching new villains, disputes, and even viruses just so they could fight them. 

Washington turned into a Cold War LARP.

The result: 

• Ukraine is destroyed. 
• The Taliban is governing Afghanistan and ISIS has taken Syria. 
• The pipeline that supplies Germany’s energy supply has been blown up, tanking its economy. And you know what happened last time the West’s guardian of democracy project tanked the German economy. Just sayin’.
• Ancient Christianity has been expelled from every place in the Middle East where American soft power has meddled. They have set their sights on destroying Catholic-Lebanon (by law, the president of Lebanon must be Catholic – did you know that?) in a proxy war with Iran.
• Most wildly, perhaps, American bureaucrats are responsible for the greatest pandemic since the Spanish Flu. They will deny it, and say it came from a rando bat. But the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming that the virus emanated from gain of function research on Coronaviruses the American bureaucracy was funding at that very moment in the very lab in the very town where COVID originated.

Which provides a helpful metaphor. 

Creating a virus to fight that virus is the definition of gain of function research. Similarly, Peter Strzok fabricated Putin in the Trump campaign just so he could fight him. Washington is a gain of function experiment wrapped in hero’s journeys draped in delusions of grandeur. 

Too many in Trump-world think the problem will go away if the institutions are dismantled. 

Get rid of USAID and The Department of Education, and Liz Cheney gets a job at her local Walmart, where she belongs.

It is not an institutional problem, though, so much as thousands of individual pathologies. 

The problem is that Liz Cheney really thinks she is important. 

That is the tumor that needs to be excised.

Removing soft power’s influence on the American psyche is the most delicate surgery of all, because it slices into the sacred beliefs of everyone, including (maybe especially) Republicans. Surgery is only successful when enough people reach the conclusion, “I am being manipulated.” 

This moment was predicted.

In 1978, Soviet dissident in exile Alexander Solzhenitsyn addressed the graduating class of Harvard University. He was expected to provide a stemwinder against Communism and at least an implied tribute to America. 

Instead, he issued a criticism of the West, based on the narrative control exercised over people. He called it “fashion” and blamed the media: 

There is yet another surprise for someone coming from the East, where the press is rigorously unified. One gradually discovers a common trend of preferences within the Western press as a whole. It is a fashion; there are generally accepted patterns of judgment; there may be common corporate interests, the sum effect being not competition but unification. Enormous freedom exists for the press, but not for the readership because newspaper[s] mostly develop stress and emphasis to those opinions which do not too openly contradict their own and the general trend.

Without any censorship, in the West fashionable trends of thought and ideas are carefully separated from those which are not fashionable; nothing is forbidden, but what is not fashionable will hardly ever find its way into periodicals or books or be heard in colleges. Legally your researchers are free, but they are conditioned by the fashion of the day….This gives birth to strong mass prejudices, to blindness, which is most dangerous in our dynamic era…. It will only be broken by the pitiless crowbar of events.

Soviet Communism has fallen. Solzhenitsyn returned to Russia and lived happily under Putin’s rule. His books are required reading in Russian schools. The state paid tribute to him and other Russian writers in the closing ceremonies of the Winter Olympics held in Sochi, Russia.

America’s control of human behavior by fashion has not yet collapsed. 

Today the West is facing a “pitiless crowbar of events.” Public policy could not even be formulated for a pandemic without casting every prescription as a political choice, resulting in collective behavior that have less to do with rigorous causal connections than with tribal adherence.

Politics is no longer judged by whether it serves the greater good, but by how dutifully it bows to the information regime. It resembles 14-year-old girls in the schoolyard, requiring mimesis in manner of dress and behavior under threat of bullying. In Solzhenitsyn’s word, fashion.

The availability of information on the internet means the state cannot impose its approved narrative outside of America’s groupthink urban enclaves where status is highly staked to fashion. The only way to control non-status people is to control information itself, with censorship, prosecution, and entire bureaucracies dedicated to curbing “misinformation” – i.e., alternative views that do not agree with the state. 

Solzhenitsyn would eventually encounter reactions to his Harvard speech from ordinary Americans along the lines of “we know in our hearts he is right.” This led him to distinguish between what he called “the arrogant stance of the America of New York and Washington” and what he observed elsewhere:

Gradually another America began unfolding before my eyes, one that was small-town and robust, the heartland, the America I had envisioned as I was writing my speech, and to which my speech was addressed.

He expressed “a glimmer of hope” that opposition to the dictatorship of fashion could spring from the place he called “another America.” 

The needless wars will not go away until both Democrats and Republicans realize that some of what emanates from the American empire are soft power seeded lies. The truth is a greater medicine than any change in policy could ever be.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 23:35

Charting America's Single Mothers By Ethnicity

There are 7.3 million single mothers in the U.S., as well as 1.9 million single fathers. Single parents often face the dual challenge of being both the primary breadwinners and caregivers for their families.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, represents the percentage of mothers in the U.S. who are single, by race/ethnicity, in 2023.

The data comes from the Center for American Progress.

21% of All Mothers Are Single

In 2023, single-mother families accounted for 1 in 5 families with children under 18.

• 47% of Black mothers were single mothers.

• 25% of Hispanic mothers were single mothers.

The majority of single mothers are in their 30s or 40s and do not have a college degree. Overall, single mothers face a 28% poverty rate.

Changes in Family Structure Over Time

According to the Center for American Progress, family structures in the U.S. have changed significantly over the past five decades.

• In 1970, 67% of adults (ages 25 to 49) lived with a spouse and at least one child.

• By 2021, that number had dropped to 37%.

Marriage rates have also declined:

• In 1970, 69% of adults were married, compared to 50% in 2021.

• Meanwhile, the percentage of adults who have never been married rose from 17% to 31% over the same period.

If you enjoyed this topic, check out this graphic that shows the distribution of wealth in the United States from 1990 to 2023 by generation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 23:10

US-Backed Kurdish SDF Agrees To Integrate Into Jolani's Syrian Army

Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,

A major agreement has reportedly been reached between the Kurdish SDF and the post-Assad Syrian government, which will reportedly include the full integration of SDF fighters into the national army. The deal also is said to have included the civil leadership in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).

Details are still emerging about a lot of exact specifics beyond the SDF integration into the military, which has been sought since the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over Syria and ousted the former Assad government. The deal is expected to increase the integration of AANES territory into national government institutions at least to some extent.

Members of the US-backed SDF, file image

It is an open question, however, how much autonomy the Kurds in that territory might retain. Some of the HTS leaders have ruled out the idea of giving any autonomy to the Kurds, and suggested that any role in the national government requires them to first totally disarm and submit.

Integration into the Syrian Army seems well short of that position, and raises the question of how Turkey will respond to the announcement. Turkey has insisted they would invade if the SDF weren’t eliminated, and integration might be short enough of that goal that Turkey close partnership with the HTS could be impacted.

SDF leader Mazloum Abdi has made comments about the potential for a deal just a day prior to these announcements. Abdi said that he was hopeful for the new HTS-led government in Syria, and promised SDF support for national stability and unity.

Turkey isn’t the only potential objector here. The Kurdistan Syria Front (KSF) issued a statement very critical of SDF and the AANES deal, even though its exact terms still aren’t public.

They warned that the deal undermines the legitimate rights of Kurds in Syria, and complained of a "path of compromise" the SDF and their associates have been on since October.

The KSF was particularly critical of the lack of consensus with other Kurdish groups before making the deal, saying that they were undermining the appearance of a unified Kurdish stance in regional and international negotiations.

Welcome to the Syrian Republic

— Rojava Network (@RojavaNetwork) February 18, 2025

It’s also not certain what the US position on this SDF deal is. The US has long supported the SDF, but in recent weeks has talked of withdrawing from Syria. The SDF says they have not been informed about any planned US withdrawal, and the US stance toward the HTS government remains uncertain.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 22:45

Visualizing Every US State Resized Based On Population

The U.S. is the world’s fourth-largest country by total area, third by land area, and is home to around 340 million people.

But nearly one-third of those people live in just three states: California, Texas, and New York.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao, reimagines the usual U.S. map with the states resized based on their populations. Data is from the Census Bureau, as of 2024.

Alaska Isn’t the Largest Anymore

If sized by population, Alaska would be the third-smallest state (fourth if counting D.C.) in the country.

This is a far cry from its top of the rankings as America’s largest state by area (665,284 sq. miles).

Rank States State Code Population (2024) 1 California CA 39.4M 2 Texas TX 31.3M 3 Florida FL 23.4M 4 New York NY 19.9M 5 Pennsylvania PA 13.1M 6 Illinois IL 12.7M 7 Ohio OH 11.9M 8 Georgia GA 11.2M 9 North Carolina NC 11.0M 10 Michigan MI 10.1M 11 New Jersey NJ 9.5M 12 Virginia VA 8.8M 13 Washington WA 8.0M 14 Arizona AZ 7.6M 15 Tennessee TN 7.2M 16 Massachusetts MA 7.1M 17 Indiana IN 6.9M 18 Maryland MD 6.3M 19 Missouri MO 6.2M 20 Wisconsin WI 6.0M 21 Colorado CO 6.0M 22 Minnesota MN 5.8M 23 South Carolina SC 5.5M 24 Alabama AL 5.2M 25 Louisiana LA 4.6M 26 Kentucky KY 4.6M 27 Oregon OR 4.3M 28 Oklahoma OK 4.1M 29 Connecticut CT 3.7M 30 Utah UT 3.5M 31 Nevada NV 3.3M 32 Iowa IA 3.2M 33 Arkansas AR 3.1M 34 Kansas KS 3.0M 35 Mississippi MS 2.9M 36 New Mexico NM 2.1M 37 Nebraska NE 2.0M 38 Idaho ID 2.0M 39 West Virginia WV 1.8M 40 Hawaii HI 1.4M 41 New Hampshire NH 1.4M 42 Maine ME 1.4M 43 Montana MT 1.1M 44 Rhode Island RI 1.1M 45 Delaware DE 1.1M 46 South Dakota SD 0.9M 47 North Dakota ND 0.8M 48 Alaska AK 0.7M 49 District of Columbia DC 0.7M 50 Vermont VT 0.6M 51 Wyoming WY 0.6M N/A U.S. USA 340.1M

Note: Population figures are from July 1st, 2024.

On the other hand, a big gainer from putting people in perspective is Florida which is 22nd by size, but third by population.

The benefit of redrawing the map with population in mind, is that it’s easier to see where people actually live.

Several big states towards the west of the country, (Wyoming, the Dakotas, Montana) are actually home to less than four million people collectively. Most of the land is taken up by parks and farmland.

In fact New York City alone has more people (8.5 million) than 38 states.

Land Doesn’t Vote, People Do

This redrawing is also particularly useful in the context of the U.S. specifically.

Rural areas with low populations can sometimes have outsized political influence due to structures like the Electoral College or the Senate.

And when densely populated urban areas often lean one way politically, and sparsely populated rural regions lean another, then the gap between population-based representation and geographic-based influence is even more pronounced.

Not only is Texas the second-most populous state, it’s gaining people from the rest of the country. Check out: Net Migration Between States to see how many moved people to the Lone Star State in 2023.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 22:20

Why Stablecoin Growth Thrives Globally... And Will US Now Follow Under Trump?

Authored by David Feliba via CoinTelegraph.com,

While the Trump administration lays the preliminary groundwork for crypto industry regulations in the US — with the White House’s new crypto czar expected to set the course in the coming months—these digital assets are already thriving in emerging markets. For precisely the good reasons.

Pegged to fiat currencies, stablecoins are becoming an important financial tool for many in the developing world, fueling remittances and cross-border trade, bridging financial inclusion gaps, and offering a hedge against inflation in countries where traditional banking often falls short, and millions are left with little to no access to financial services.

Stablecoins — mostly pegged to the US dollar — have seen explosive growth in recent years, with real-world use cases expanding rapidly across Africa, Latin America, and parts of developing Asia. While the US is still figuring out how to apply this technology beyond the crypto space, emerging markets are already proving why stablecoins matter. 

In these regions, they’re not just a financial experiment — they’re a solution.

Stablecoins as a hedge against inflation in South America

In inflation-ridden economies like Argentina and Venezuela, stablecoins offer a dollar-pegged refuge from depreciating local currencies, especially where access to foreign currency exchanges is tightly controlled. Throughout Africa and Central America, they serve as a cost-effective tool for remittances and cross-border payments, while in places like Indonesia, they can provide a more accessible alternative to traditional USD banking, which can involve complex requirements.

While in richer, more advanced economies, stablecoins are primarily used in decentralized finance and as a bridge between traditional banking and DeFi, in emerging markets with limited financial infrastructure, their role is more fundamental yet essential, Cornell University Trade Policy professor Eswar Prasad said:

“In low and middle-income economies with underdeveloped financial systems, they can play a useful role in providing citizens and businesses easy and widespread access to a low-cost digital payment system.” 

Access to the US dollar — widely seen as a global store of value — has been a key driver of stablecoin adoption in emerging markets. Designed to offer stability in contrast to the volatility of early cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, most stablecoins are dollar-pegged, with Tether’s USDt leading at nearly 60% of the global market, followed by USD Coin, another dollar-backed asset.

Stablecoin supply by issuer. Source: Castle Island Ventures.

“There are problems in the world that need to be solved by a cryptocurrency that doesn’t constantly fluctuate in price,” Julián Colombo, senior director at Bitso, a Mexican crypto exchange with an official presence in Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia, said in an interview with Cointelegraph. 

“Stablecoins offer a way to bring all the benefits of crypto to real-world use cases—not just the potential to get rich off Bitcoin.”

Stablecoins are a priority for Trump’s crypto czar

Momentum is growing in the United States around stablecoins, as a bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation on Feb. 4 to establish a regulatory framework. In his first address to the industry, White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks emphasized that stablecoin regulation is a top priority for the administration, with the former venture capitalist leading a task force set to draft key policies over the next six months.

At any rate, stablecoin growth has been nothing short of spectacular. In the past year alone, they’ve tacked on a staggering $100 billion in market value, soaring to a total of $225 billion as of February 2025, according to DelfiLlama. USDt still reigns supreme, commanding over 60% of the market, but challengers — including those backed by financial powerhouses like PayPal— are rapidly gaining ground. 

“Stablecoins — tokenized representations of fiat currencies circulating on blockchains 1 — are unambiguously the “killer app” of crypto so far,” a report authored by Castle Island Ventures and sponsored by Visa mentioned. 

“We believe stablecoins represent a payment innovation that has the potential to expand access to secure, reliable, and convenient payments to more people in more places,” Cuy Sheffield, Global Head of Crypto at the US payments giant, said. 

“While they initially emerged as a crypto-native collateral type and settlement medium for traders and exchanges, they have crossed the chasm and have found wide adoption globally in the ordinary economy,“ it was argued in the report. 

“Based on the divergence between stablecoin activity and crypto market cycles, it is evident that stablecoin adoption has moved beyond merely serving crypto users and trading use cases.”

Spot crypto trading volume vs stablecoin monthly sending addresses. Source: Castle Island Ventures.

Seen as a store of value, a hedge against inflation, and a tool for cross-border transactions, stablecoins have gained significant traction in emerging markets. A recent Chainalysis report found that in regions like Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia, stablecoin adoption far outpaces that of Bitcoin, accounting for nearly half of all crypto transactions in some cases. 

In contrast, the US and North America have the lowest adoption rate for stablecoins in North America, though it still holds a notable share.

Share of regional transaction activity: stablecoin and Bitcoin. Source: Chainalysis.

In places like Brazil, a Latin American powerhouse with a population of 216 million and a $2.2 trillion GDP, the use of stablecoins has surged wildly in recent years, its central bank governor Gabriel Galipodo said. As much as 90% of the entire crypto flow is linked to stablecoins, the economist said while speaking at a Bank for International Settlements event in Mexico City on Feb. 6.

“Most of that is to buy things and to shop things from abroad,” said Galipolo, emphasizing that this novel trend brought with it intense oversight challenges regarding taxation.

But nowhere in Latin America have stablecoins found greater adoption than in Argentina, Julián Colombo, who leads the local operation at regional exchange Bitso, said. Amid the country’s chronic inflation and economic instability, they offer a vital financial refuge for citizens.

“In Argentina, as in other high-inflation countries, stablecoins have emerged as a solution to a very real and pressing problem,” Colombo told Cointelegraph.

“Argentines don’t trust the local currency and prefer to save in dollars, but government-imposed exchange controls and restrictions make access difficult. Stablecoins have filled that gap, providing a way to hold and transact in USD.” 

In Argentina, he says, roughly two out of every three crypto purchases through the exchange are made in dollar-pegged assets. While Argentina’s financial indicators have improved under pro-crypto President Javier Milei’s market-driven administration, inflation remains high at 84.5% year-over-year.

Though recent monthly data shows a downward trend, rebuilding trust in the local currency will take time in a country long plagued by triple-digit inflation and severe currency devaluations, ensuring sustained demand for stablecoins pegged to the US dollar.

Similarly, the adoption of such digital assets has been significant as well in Venezuela, which suffers from chronicle inflation as well as a myriad of regulations that make access to foreign currency like the USD highly convoluted. In emerging markets with somewhat more stable currencies like Brazil or Mexico, they can serve a different but equally important purpose: enabling fast, low-cost money transfers without the volatility of traditional cryptocurrencies. 

Businesses use them to pay for international services, hire remote employees, send dividends, and facilitate remittances, making cross-border transactions more efficient and accessible.

“In contrast to other crypto assets, stablecoins come with a promise of stability,” the Bank of International Settlements said in a report about stablecoins. “Due to this potential, they are increasingly entering mainstream finance, and a number of jurisdictions have developed regulatory approaches for issuers of stablecoins pegged to a single fiat currency.”

Stablecoins fuel remittances in Central America and Africa

One of stablecoins’ most powerful use cases comes in the form of cross-border transfer and remittances, particularly in Central America and Africa, with these digital assets providing an alternative for cheaper and faster money flows across international borders. Migrants working in the United States have often found in stablecoins a vehicle for more convenient transfers to families back home, 

“Stablecoins are getting some traction for both domestic and cross-border payments,” Prasad, who teaches Trade Policy at US Cornell University, said to Cointelegraph. “They are already playing a particularly useful role in overcoming the inefficiencies, high costs, and slow processing times for cross-border transactions conducted through traditional payment channels.”

Referencing the popularity of stablecoin use in remittances, Colombo said:

“Before crypto, remittance services could charge up to 10% in fees just to send money from one country to another. With crypto, you might have some extra money to send to Mexico, and the transfer could cost just a cent—arriving in minutes instead of hours or days.”

Cases for non-crypto use of stablecoins grow

In the Visa-sponsored report, researchers conducted a survey of approximately 500 crypto user individuals in Nigeria, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and India for a total sample of 2,541 adults. While access to crypto remains the most popular motivation to use them, non-crypto uses such as access to dollars, generating yield or transactional purposes are highly popular.

Stablecoin questionnaire results. Source: Castle Island Ventures.

The survey revealed that Nigerian users have the strongest affinity for stablecoins compared to other countries surveyed. Nigerians transact with stablecoins the most frequently, have the largest share of stablecoins in their portfolios, use them for the widest range of non-crypto purposes, and report the highest self-reported knowledge of stablecoins. Saving money in dollars was their top priority.

Across Africa, stablecoins have become the “holy grail” for cross-border trade, international remittances, and value transfer across the continent, according to Zekarias Dubale, co-founder of the Africa Fintech Summit. He argued that these digital assets could offer the necessary financial infrastructure to facilitate global trade.

The case for stablecoins, however, is not without risks. While the most widely used stablecoins have largely maintained their peg to the strong fiat currencies they are designed to mirror, the market is expanding rapidly, with hundreds of digital assets now in circulation. Many of these assets, however, lack transparency about the reserves backing them, and instances of stablecoins depegging and, in some cases, collapsing have occurred.

Despite this, stablecoins are gaining momentum in the United States under the Trump administration and across emerging markets, where they are proving to be powerful tools that can help citizens overcome challenges related to financial inclusion and underdeveloped infrastructure.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 21:55

Trump, Musk To Discuss Sending US Taxpayers $5,000 Checks Using DOGE Savings

Billionaire Elon Musk said on Feb. 18 that he will discuss with President Donald Trump a proposal to send U.S. taxpayers rebate checks representing a portion of the money saved by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Musk is spearheading the Trump administration’s efforts to reshape the federal government and reduce wasteful spending.

The DOGE leader took to his social media platform, X, to say he would check with Trump regarding the possibility of introducing a “DOGE Dividend.”

The SpaceX and Tesla founder made the remarks in response to a suggestion from James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, that a “tax refund check” be sent out to Americans after DOGE completes its work in July 2026.

The refund would be funded “exclusively with a portion of the total savings delivered by DOGE,” according to Fishback’s proposal.

As Katabella Roberts reports for The Epoch Times, DOGE aims to deliver $2 trillion in federal spending cuts during its 18-month lifespan.

Fishback’s proposal calls for 20 percent of the $2 trillion in savings—approximately $400 billion—to be returned to 79 million tax-paying households via direct payments.

That would amount to roughly $5,000 being returned to each of those 79 million households, according to Fishback.

He said the rebate “compensates American taxpayers for the egregious misuse and abuse of their hard-earned tax dollars that DOGE has uncovered,” and encourages them to report “instances of waste, fraud, and abuse” to DOGE, thereby increasing the total amount that DOGE saves.

In addition, Fishback said the rebate would help “restore public trust between taxpayers and their government” and increase “tax morale.”

It would also incentivize labor force participation, the investor said, noting that the rebate would be available only to net payers of federal income tax in 2025.

Musk responded to Fishback’s proposal, saying he “will check with the president.”

The entrepreneur also responded to another post on X regarding the potential tax refund, writing: “Obviously, the President is the Commander-in-Chief, so this is entirely up to him.”

DOGE Says Billions Saved Amid Cost-Cutting Efforts

DOGE said its cost-cutting efforts across several federal agencies had saved an estimated $55 billion as of Feb. 17.

The savings came from a combination of fraud detection and deletion, contract and lease cancellations and renegotiations, asset sales, grant cancellations, workforce reductions, programmatic changes, and regulatory savings that have been implemented across federal agencies, according to DOGE’s official website.

DOGE stated that contract cancellations alone accounted for approximately 20 percent of the overall savings amassed since the department was established by Trump in January.

The top 10 agencies with the highest total contract savings include the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), responsible for administering U.S. foreign aid and development assistance; the Department of Education; the Office of Personnel Management; the Department of Health and Human Services; and the Department of Agriculture, according to the DOGE website.

Many Republicans have long seen many of the agencies currently targeted by DOGE as pushing liberal agendas that are detrimental to U.S. interests.

However, the agencies account for just a small fraction of the overall federal budget, which is projected to reach $7 trillion this fiscal year, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

For example, USAID disbursed about $72 billion in aid in fiscal year 2023, Reuters reported, citing government figures. That amounted to about 1 percent of total federal outlays, according to the news agency.

Musk is also facing criticism from Democrats and other groups over his role with DOGE and possible conflicts of interest.

The White House has previously said that the Space X and Tesla founder is a “special government employee” under the Trump administration and acts as an adviser only.

While speaking to reporters alongside Trump in the Oval Office on Feb. 11, Musk defended his position as an unelected official while vowing to remain transparent with the American public.

“You can’t have an autonomous federal bureaucracy,” Musk said. “You have to have one that’s responsive to the people.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 21:30

Conspiracy Theorists Were Right About Everything – Now What?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

For many years alternative economists and “conspiracy theorists” have argued that, according to the evidence, there has been an organized criminal cabal operating a long running agenda to exploit and eventually destroy western culture. We have suggested that much of this agenda was being funded with our own tax dollar while using government institutions and NGOs as vehicles for social engineering.

In the 20 years since I started work in the liberty movement (or patriot movement), I have seen corruption beyond imagining and it all culminated in 2020-2023 when many of us battled against the imposition of total medical tyranny and mass woke indoctrination. Even after that startling Orwellian period we were still called conspiracy theorists, but public awareness is changing rapidly.

I’ve see enough to know that what is happening today is truly unprecedented. We have entered a crossroads; a time when reality is no longer discarded for the sake of collective comfort and “conspiracy” becomes historic fact. It’s an exciting time to be alive, but also potentially hazardous.

My running theory has always been that once the house of cards came crashing down and the truth was revealed to the wider public, a whole lot of skeptics that used to call us “fringe crazies” and “tinfoil hatters” would suddenly claim they “saw it coming all along”. Yes, the conspiracy theorists were right, about EVERYTHING. The truth is coming to light in a big way, but what does this mean for the future?

Can America Handle The Truth?

The recent dismantling of USAID and the open investigations into numerous federal agencies has opened a Pandora’s Box; the covert funding that these institutions are involved in (including millions in pay-offs to various news media outlets and propaganda platforms) is, I believe, just the tip of a massive iceberg that could very well sink the US system faster than the Titanic.

Elon Musk’s DOGE group has only just begun dipping their toes into the dark waters of the Treasury, Medicaid, Social Security and the Defense Department. We all know there are some horrifying monsters lurking in those depths. This doesn’t even take into account the hidden activities of the controllers of the Federal Reserve.

The establishment media argues that USAID represents only 1% of the total federal budget, as if that makes the budget waste acceptable. But if there is that much mismanagement and gerrymandering in a smaller organization like USAID, imaging how much fraud there is in the rest of the federal government? .

Over the years many of us in alternative economics have wondered if our nation would be able to handle the revelation that almost everything about our system is fake. Half the country has suspected as much, but what would happen if we had hard proof – A smoking gun?

USAID is that smoking gun, the proof of death, but it’s only one of many buried bodies that are about to be uncovered. The real revelations will come when DOGE discovers how much US policy is directed and controlled by entities OUTSIDE our own country.

What happens when they investigate the numerous financial and political networks connected to the WEF, DAVOS, World Bank, the IMF, the BIS, and international think tanks like the CFR, Tavistock, the Atlantic Council, Ford Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation and Open Society Foundations? What about the investment influences of Black Rock,Vanguard, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc.?

When the globalist hand behind the revolving door of cash is revealed, when the shadow government becomes a concrete and undeniable fact, is the public going freak out?

The political left is an enemy of freedom and morality, yes, but the greater issue is that they are a useful tool for more powerful elitist interests. It’s a cartel, an oligarchy working together to bring down the west from within and replace it with something new. A new ideology and a new economy that would effectively turn the majority of the population into unwitting serfs.

Only four years ago the WEF was boasting about the coming of the “4th Industrial Revolution”, the rise of the “cashless society”, the “Fifteen Minute City” and the “Sharing Economy”. And, as we now know, many of those projects were being paid for with our tax dollars. The globalists were so convinced that they had the populace dead to rights. They thought they had won.

It was only through the tireless efforts of liberty movement activists and conservatives around the world that the plan was disrupted and the globalists were sent into retreat. However, the fight is far from over. There are some important problems that need to be addressed as we enter the era of transparency. Here’s what will probably happen next…

Rabid Sabotage By The Political Left

The government is effectively being audited by the Trump Administration, and the Democrats are enraged. Why? Because they (and a handful of Neo-Cons) know full well what that audit is going to find. Activist judges and progressive politicians are going to obstruct and interfere with the process as much as they can. Their entire power structure depends on the steady embezzlement of tax dollars and the constant churning of the fiat printing press.

For those people who don’t understand what the big deal is with USAID, I suggest they research ESG programs and what they do. USAID was basically a vehicle for global ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance; a meaningless acronym designed to hide a program for global socialism) and it was spending incredible sums of money to spread woke propaganda into every facet of our society.

Leftist legal actions won’t make much difference in the long run, but they’ll still try to delay. These delays will be used to buy time for media spin. They’re going full force to misrepresent DOGE as some kind of totalitarian entity “destroying democracy”, however, authoritarians have never and will never pursue government transparency; this is not a thing.  Authoritarians ALWAYS pursue obscurity and occult secrecy around their activities. The leftists, by their own actions, are exposed as the true totalitarians.

Democrats and establishment NGOs will continue trying to foment civil unrest and they will use woke dupes as cannon fodder in this fight. Anything to distract the public from the evidence of their criminality.  Violence and terrorism should be expected.

Economic Downturn Is Inevitable – Trump Will Be Blamed

Broad budget cuts are essential to saving the economy in the long term, but they are also a double-edged sword in the short term. For example, US GDP stats rely greatly on government spending in their calculations (they shouldn’t, but they do). Government spending accounts for around 36% of our nation’s GDP – It’s a methodology used in recent decades to make our economic health look stronger than it really is.

As Trump executes extensive cuts to government spending, this will in turn make it look as if GDP is plummeting. Leftists will claim that Trump’s policies are crashing the financial system.

On top of this, I’ve been warning for some time that the Biden Administration has been engaging in complex data manipulation. Now that Biden is gone the real data is already coming out and it’s not good. Inflation numbers and employment numbers from the Biden era are being “adjusted”, as I predicted, showing a much weaker economy than originally reported. Retail stats and GDP are next.

The American public will need a crash-course in how the economy works and who is behind the downturn, or the leftist media will have a field day with the revised stats.

Can The Investment World Handle The Truth?

When the level of fraud within the US system is fully exposed, will the investment world panic? Will they pull their money out of US markets that have long been supported artificially by government funds and central bank intervention? These are valid questions we need to consider. The truth needs to come out regardless; nothing can be fixed until the source of the rot is uncovered. That said, the mantra “ignorance is bliss” is one that America has been living by for a long time.

I think Americans are desperate for the truth and desperate for reform, but change on the scale we are facing always brings chaos with it. I suggest that conservatives and patriots prepare accordingly.

Cutting Ties With Globalist Run Governments

As the process of transparency moves forward in the US we have to take into account that Europe, the UK, Australia and Canada are all still well under the hypnosis of the cabal. Things are changing overseas; the UK, Germany and France are starting to see conservative movements blossom, but globalists are determined to stop them from gaining political traction.

I suspect we will see strained or broken ties with many former allies in the coming years as they crack down on their own citizens and show their true authoritarian colors. We’re already seeing this happening in the UK, Germany, France and Romania among others.

The Most Dangerous Time Is When You Think You Are Winning

Establishment elites are like vampires. In fact, I suspect the whole mythology of vampires from centuries ago is actually based on the very real and evil crimes of the elites of the past. They use their wealth and influence to gain a foothold in your country, city or village. They use subterfuge to gain trust and exert authority. They spread darkness and corruption like a cancer, then they feed on the population at will while pretending to be benevolent leaders.

But these parasites must be invited in by the people. The public has to, in some ways, give consent to their own victimization. We have to willfully ignore their activities; our apathy is seen as consent. Sunlight is the primary remedy and the vampires flee when it’s unleashed. Finally, if all else fails a stake through the heart is required to end them. It could be a proverbial stake, or a very real one.

Audits of the corrupt system are the sunlight. Independent patriot rebellion is the stake through the heart if all else fails.

Just because the evil is exposed does not necessarily mean it will stop or disappear. Often these cornered creatures fight even harder and their mission is to take you down with them. Great truth often precedes the darkest of days and the collapse of epochs. As the shadow government faces uncertainty for perhaps the first time ever, who knows how the leviathan will react?

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 21:05