US Designates Mexican Cartels As "Foreign Terrorists," Signaling Financial Warfare Looms

The US State Department has designated eight Latin American drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, setting the stage for a series of legal and financial measures aimed at paralyzing command structures and financial networks of cartels to stop the drug death catastrophe in the US.

"Foreign Terrorist Organization Designations of Tren de Aragua, Mara Salvatrucha, Cartel de Sinaloa, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, Carteles Unidos, Cartel del Noreste, Cartel del Golfo, and La Nueva Familia Michoacana," a notice issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio read earlier this month.   

Rubio said in the notice that these cartels contain individuals who "have committed or have attempted to commit, pose a significant risk of committing, or have participated in training to commit acts of terrorism that threaten the security of United States nationals or the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States."

"I have determined that no prior notice needs to be provided to any person subject to this determination who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, because to do so would render ineffectual the measures authorized in the Order," Rubio added.

The designation comes about a month after President Trump issued an executive order on his first day of office to evaluate whether Mexican drug cartels could be designated as terrorist groups.  

"The cartels have engaged in a campaign of violence and terror throughout the Western Hemisphere that has not only destabilized countries with significant importance for our national interests but also flooded the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals, and vicious gangs," Trump wrote in his order.

In recent weeks, we have incrementally reported USAF spy planes that conducted signals intelligence operations along the US-Mexico border, Green Berets from the US Army's 7th Special Forces Group deployed on a training mission in Campeche—a Mexican port city on the Gulf of Mexico, and CIA reportedly flying MQ-9 Reaper drones over regions of Mexico dominated by heavily armed drug cartels.

Analysts told Epoch Times that designating cartels with FTO paves the way for the US government to unleash financial sanctions to disrupt the command and control centers of these cartels. Then, after financial networks are disrupted, strike cartel-operated facilities... 

"You could go after people trafficking firearms to the cartels; you could arrest them for providing material to a foreign terrorist organization," Ioan Grillo, a Mexico-based journalist, told Epoch earlier this month.

Human traffic investigator François Cavard said the Trump administration's FTO designation would "make it clear to the high-level corrupt accomplices these criminals may have within the United States and in US government offices and agencies … that they're going after them also."

Here's the latest reporting: 

• USAF Spy Plane Runs SIGINT Operation Near Cabo As US Preps For Potential Cartel Fight

• USAF Spy Jet Flies Second SIGINT Operation On US Border With Focus On Narco Hub

• Border Czar "Expects" Kinetic Warfare Between US Troops & Mexican Drug Cartels

• CIA Reportedly Flying MQ-9 Spy Drones Over Mexico As Cartel Fight Nears

• Designating Cartels As Terrorists Will Have Huge Consequences, Say Analysts

Readers should understand that the disrupt-and-dismantle strategy is broad, targeting not only Mexican cartels but also transnational criminal organizations spanning from Canada to China.

This is what 'America First' looks like. It's time to stop the drug death overdose crisis in America that kills 100,000 per year. 

We must caution that the fight against cartels could get messy, considering the Biden-Harris regime flooded the nation with thousands of Tren de Aragua terrorists.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 20:40

Will China Throw BRICS At The Dollar?

Authored by Jame Gorries via The Epoch Times,

As the Trump administration’s America First policy continues to unfold, the globalist policies of the prior administration are rapidly disappearing.

To no one’s surprise, the America First policies include imposing tariffs on Chinese goods aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit with China and Europe, as well as broader policies prioritizing U.S. interests over international cooperation.

Trump’s Tariffs Trigger Trade War?

But that’s not the whole story. The administration’s high tariffs, specifically on Chinese imports, are not only meant to protect U.S. industries but are also intended to pressure China economically. By extension, as the Chinese economy continues to struggle, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will be under pressure at home.

Predictably, U.S. tariffs have led to retaliatory tariffs from China against American products. Initial actions by Beijing include levying 15 percent tariffs on imports of U.S. liquid natural gas (LNG) and coal, as well as 10 percent tariffs on oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.

Tension Escalation and BRICS

The immediate effect has been escalating tensions between the two nations across geopolitical and economic spectrums. If the trade war continues to ramp up, the friction between Washington and Beijing will likely increase, with potentially more provocative actions and responses to follow.

One specific response could be for China to find a quicker path toward a BRICS-based trading system. BRICS, which is an acronym for the first five participating countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—was founded in 2009 and is currently considering an alternative currency that would be used primarily to replace the dollar for trading between member countries.

No actual BRICS currency yet exists.

Establishing a functioning BRICS-based trade bloc isn’t a new proposal; it’s been talked about for years or even decades. Avoiding U.S. financial dominance is the reason the BRICS nations came together in the first place. The idea has always been to insulate BRICS economies, which constitute 35 percent of global GDP, from U.S. financial pressures.

But skeptics point out that there’s no substitute for the dollar, at least not from Europe, Japan, or China. By some estimates, the U.S. dollar is used in 84.3 percent of international trade—compared to just 4.5 percent for the Chinese yuan.

BRICS: A Valid Challenge to the Dollar Dominance?

Still, the push for de-dollarization among BRICS nations has gained momentum in response to Washington’s weaponization of the dollar through sanctions and trade policies against nations it disagrees with. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iran’s proxy wars against Israel are two prime examples of the United States imposing crippling sanctions and freezing the national assets of adversaries, but they’re not the only ones.

Now, with the Trump administration threatening the Chinese economy, the CCP views the need to launch a BRICS currency and trading system as “pressing.” They’re not alone. The other BRICS nations, especially Russia, are also very interested in forming a new currency to compete with the U.S. dollar and recently announced plans for a BRICS blockchain-based payment system.

However, achieving true currency diversification against the dollar won’t be easy. The dollar has been widely used since the end of World War II, and the entire global financial system is dollar-based. Furthermore, the dollar network is well-established and functions better than any other.

The dollar network includes the U.S. economy, which remains the biggest and most productive and innovative in the world; the U.S. financial markets; the banking and exchange system (SWIFT), which is the world’s largest, most reliable, and most liquid; and the U.S. legal system, which is the most reliable and transparent. Finally, the U.S. military remains the most lethal and effective enforcement agency on the planet.

In soft power terms, American culture has global recognition and appeal. Neither China’s nor Russia’s cultural appeal is anywhere close. Given these factors, no other country, or even 10 nations (the number of BRICS members today), can replace the dollar’s place and power in the world.

Can China Create a BRICS-Based Trading System?

How would China and BRICS overcome these obstacles?

Various strategies have been considered. One is to conduct trade in individual currencies of BRICS participants. Another would be to form a new BRICS currency based on a basket of currencies that could be backed by gold or create the aforementioned blockchain-based currency. Discussions at BRICS summits have seen China lead these discussions.

China has also proposed a new payment system to bypass the dollar-based SWIFT system, called “BRICS Pay.” This would use blockchain-based or other innovative payment systems that enable transactions in local currencies and reduce dollar dependency. China is also building an international financial infrastructure to support BRICS members, which includes the New Development Bank to finance development projects using BRICS currencies.

As the expansion of BRICS participants continues, its chances of success will improve. With 120 nations that count China as their largest trading partner, broadening the participation and influence of this alternative economic bloc could be easy and may pose a more serious challenge to the dollar.

Impact of BRICS-Based System on the World

Some observers say that BRICS countries would regain sovereignty over their financial policies, freeing them from U.S. economic sanctions and giving them greater control over their financial policies.

That may be true. But it may also result in participants finding themselves under the heavy yoke of the CCP. Beijing’s history of saddling Belt and Road Initiative “partners” with crippling debt and military domination is well known.

Given the nature of the CCP and China’s economic and military superiority, it’s unlikely to expect Beijing to be a benevolent leader. See, for instance, how once-free Hong Kong is doing now, or for that matter, the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, or even China’s minority populations like the Uyghurs.

As a financial hegemon, China has already shown how it will behave.

As for bringing more balance to global trade, a successful BRICS could lead to a bipolar or multipolar world in terms of finance, trade, and currencies, where nations can choose which system to use or be forced to choose. But exchanging a dollar-based system for a BRICS-based one doesn’t necessarily mean more freedom or control.

The geopolitical impact of a successful BRICS system would certainly weaken U.S. influence in global economic governance and strengthen communist China. That, of course, is the whole point. Developing nations may not like how the United States handles some situations, but they’ll be much worse off under the bootheel of the CCP.

Challenges and Obstacles to BRICS

But today, BRICS members have conflicting economic systems, political goals, and levels of development, which makes reaching a consensus on a new currency or payment system complex.

India, for example, is an economic, political, cultural, and regional rival to China. Live fire border skirmishes between the two are common, and China supports Pakistan, India’s prime adversary.

Will New Delhi be willing to take financial orders from communist Beijing?

As the world’s largest democracy with the highest population on Earth, India is a nuclear power, enjoys a rapidly growing economy, and has a young, dynamic population that starkly contrasts China’s shrinking economy and rapidly aging population.

It’s also difficult to believe that the United States will sit back and allow BRICS to happen without a fight. The Trump administration is quite willing to use tariffs up to 100 percent against BRICS members if they try to replace the dollar.

The bottom line?

China, Russia, Iran, and South Africa need BRICS more than their trading partners do. With a surging America and a powerful dollar, if and when a BRICS currency emerges, it may resemble the old Soviet trading bloc that couldn’t compete with the West, which is really what BRICS is all about.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 20:15

Paging DOGE: Study Finds 28% Spike In Corruption When Feds Shower Local Governments In Cash

Federal grants are a crucial funding source for local governments, growing from $135 billion in 1990 to an astounding $1.2 trillion in 2022. However, a new study reveals that sudden surges of federal money - so-called "windfalls" - increase local corruption by up to 28%. This research underscores the urgent need for stringent oversight mechanisms, particularly at the federal level, to ensure these funds serve their intended purpose rather than lining the pockets of corrupt officials.

Federal Windfalls: A Breeding Ground for Corruption

The study reveals that local governments experiencing sudden increases in federal grants witness a 28% rise in corruption-related charges. This trend is not surprising given that rapid financial expansion often outpaces the development of adequate oversight structures. 

Examples abound of public officials exploiting these funds for personal gain. One such case involved the mayor and accountant of Stonecrest, Georgia - Jason Lary, who pleaded guilty in 2022 to defrauding local churches, businesses and nonprofit organizations out of hundreds of thousands of dollars - out of a $6.2 million federal grant for COVID-19 relief.

In October of 2021, the DOJ seized roughly $480,000 of fraud proceeds from Lary - who was sentenced to nearly five years in prison.

Former Stonecrest Mayor Jason Lary

The principal-agent problem exacerbates this issue. While the federal government provides funds with the expectation that local governments will use them appropriately, local officials—acting as agents—sometimes operate contrary to these expectations, exploiting gaps in oversight and enforcement.

The Role of Federal Oversight Agencies

Given the lack of oversight at the local level, federal oversight agencies, like the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), are vital in curbing these abuses. According to the study, federal oversight of 'windfall' grants rely on 'Single Audits' - the impact of which is "surprisingly limited and mixed. According to a 2021 study (Brumley et al.), when Single Audits do find corruption, there is usually no subsequent reduction in federal grant awards.

State oversight mechanisms offer some deterrence, particularly when state auditors hold Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE) credentials. However, their effectiveness is inconsistent across jurisdictions. While states with more fraud auditors experience lower corruption levels, the overall impact is relatively weak compared to federal intervention.

Federal Windfalls Enable More than Just Grant Fraud
Extra federal money doesn’t just lead to fraud in grant programs it spills over into other types of financial crime. More cash = more opportunities for mismanagement. (6/8)

— Kyle Welch (@Prof__Welch) February 19, 2025

At the local level, the situation is even more dire. The study highlights that poor audit outcomes—such as material weaknesses, questioned costs, and audit findings—exacerbate corruption. Local governments with a history of financial mismanagement are particularly vulnerable when receiving windfall grants, as they lack the necessary controls to prevent misuse.

Not All Audits Are Created Equal
Some audit findings (like questioned costs) exacerbate corruption risks, while others (like modified opinions) do nothing. What we measure and act on matters. (7/8)

— Kyle Welch (@Prof__Welch) February 19, 2025

The Power of the Press: An Unofficial Watchdog

In addition to formal oversight mechanisms, a strong local press plays a crucial role in exposing corruption. The study demonstrates that local corruption spikes when newspapers shut down. This finding aligns with broader research showing that the media acts as an informal check on government misconduct by increasing transparency and public accountability. Unfortunately, the decline of local journalism in recent years has weakened this crucial line of defense.

Policy Implications and Recommendations

To combat the corruption linked to federal windfalls, policymakers must strengthen oversight at multiple levels:

1. Enhance Federal Oversight: Agencies like DOGE should increase their scrutiny of windfall grants, particularly in municipalities with a history of financial mismanagement.

2. Mandate Independent Federal Audits: Rather than relying on local and state audits, federal agencies should conduct independent, randomized audits to deter misconduct.

3. Strengthen State Fraud Detection: States should require their auditors to hold CFE credentials and allocate more resources to fraud detection.

4. Support Local Journalism: Given its deterrent effect, federal and state governments should explore initiatives to sustain local investigative journalism.

Until then, politicians gonna politician...

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Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 19:50

Arizona Governor Vetoes Bill To Expedite Ballot Counting In Swing State

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs on Tuesday vetoed a bill aimed at speeding up ballot counting in the state, citing concerns that it would make voting more difficult.

House Bill 2703, introduced by Republican state Rep. Laurin Hendrix, would have changed Arizona election laws by eliminating emergency voting centers and setting a new deadline for voters to drop off early ballots.

Hobbs said earlier this month that she would veto the measure amid concerns it could create difficulties for voters, leading to negotiations with lawmakers that ultimately stalled.

In a Feb. 18 statement posted to the social media platform X, Hobbs said she had offered compromises that would have sped up election results in the state while also protecting voting rights.

Those compromises were ultimately rejected, prompting her to veto the measure, the governor said.

Hobbs said she was concerned that the legislation restricts late-early ballot drop-offs and effectively ends Arizona’s Active Early Voting List, therefore “gutting the vote by mail program that countless Arizonans rely on.”

“I offered compromises that include that change, but also policies like same day voter registration, cross-county portability of registration, and more assistance for eligible voters to return their ballots to protect voter access,” Hobbs stated.

 “Compromise was rejected.”

Election results in Arizona tend to come in later than in other states, in part because of a state-mandated signature verification process for mail ballots and a surge in emergency voting during the weekend before Election Day.

Under current law, voters can drop off their mail ballots at polling places until 7 p.m. on Election Day. As a result, the state has taken close to two weeks to report its results in recent elections.

Veto a ‘Huge Mistake’ Senate President Says

The legislation rejected by Hobbs would have prohibited many voters from dropping off their mail-in ballots on Election Day, moving the deadline to the Friday before instead.

Doing so would have allowed election officials to collect the majority of mail ballots before election night and begin the time-consuming signature verification process earlier.

The measure would also have required voters to go to specific voting locations—depending on where they lived—over the weekend before an election to show identification and sign an early voter affidavit in order to drop off their ballot.

The measure stated that Arizona’s delayed results are “sometimes perceived as evidence of election worker incompetence or inefficiency or as an opportunity for unscrupulous participants to affect the ballot tabulation process improperly.”

Due to delays in reporting final results, public confidence in Arizona’s voting system has declined, the measure stated.

“By decentralizing and streamlining the process for confirming voter identity associated with late early ballots and eliminating emergency voting during the days immediately before election day, Arizona can substantially reduce administrative burdens, speed up the ballot tabulation process and increase confidence in the electoral system,” the legislation noted.

Senate President Warren Petersen, who sponsored the measure, called Hobbs’ veto “a huge mistake,” and “a missed opportunity to increase voter confidence and reduce frustration on election night.”

In a Feb. 18 statement, Peterson said lawmakers remain committed to making “commonsense and proven changes” to the state’s election processes.

“Arizona should never again be the laughingstock of the nation for its woefully slow election reporting,” he said. “Our caucus will be discussing a path forward on this issue in the days and weeks ahead.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 19:25

"We Are The Last Humans In World History Who Remember What Life Was Like Before" AI

Oliver Anthony, a former factory worker who emerged from the woods of Virginia, gained national attention in the late summer of 2023 with his song "Rich Men North of Richmond." The song became the No. 1 song on iTunes for weeks, resonating as an anthem for over 80 million Americans who have been smeared, ignored, mocked, slandered, and robbed by the Deep State that President Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE are firing in mass. Now, Anthony has elevated his message, warning about the dangers of the technological society. 

On Tuesday, Anthony spoke at the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship event in London. The big question is: Why was this internet-famous singer invited to speak at a conference with world leaders? And how do his credentials compare to those of others in the room?

Maybe ARC's founder, Jordan Peterson, a Canadian author and former psychology professor, is behind the invite. 

Besides that... Anthony warned: 

And in my unprofessional opinion neuroplasticity has made us increasingly digitally proficient but at a cost of being digitally dependent, and if being hired on as a London cab driver can change your brain on an MRI scan and if life experiences like PSD can alter the DNA and sperm what irreversible alterations will 30,000 hours of staring into algorithmically fed into a state of hypnosis due to the human mind or to their offspring.

In this short breath of time, we live in a state of existence that quite possibly no one else in world history has. We have both access to instant global connectivity, infinite information, and consumer-level access to artificial intelligence, but we are the last few humans in world history who remember what life was like before it. We are the last living people in history to have experienced life before the digital age.

I fear that it may become nearly impossible for younger generations to even differentiate the digital world from the real one before the end of my lifetime. There is nothing inherently wrong with technology. There is nothing wrong with instant connection, and there is nothing intrinsically bad about access to abundant information, but what is bad is the lack of control and agency that we have over these systems and without realizing it we are being programmed and our culture is becoming commodified therefore, the more time we spend on these digital information systems the more we revert to the mean of one of a fixed set of broad internet cohorts - in other words the more time we spend online the more commoditized our culture, the more tribal our psychology, and the more vulnerable we become.

...

I'm just here to remind you that we don't need our false Idols. We should no longer rely on politicians who bow down to money to manage our city or our states. We need to find the real leaders everywhere and empower them Western North Carolina was proof to me that there is an army of good people left in this world who want to do good things. We just have to give them places to gather and give them the ability to act, and so I close with this do not fret because of those who are evil or be envious of those who do wrong for like the grass, they will soon wither like green plants they will soon die away trust in the Lord and do good dwell in the land and enjoy safe pasture take. Delight in the Lord and he will give you the desires of your heart. So I'll see you on April the 5th in Spruce Pine, North Carolina, for the first official gathering.

It is now my life's mission to revive Rural America one town at a time. It's called the Rural Revival Project, so thank you for for listening.

Listen here:

What hits hard in Anthony's speech is this line: "We are the last few humans in world history who remember what life was like before it. We are the last living people in history to have experienced life before the digital age."

We will have great stories for the grandchildren about life before AI... 

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 19:00

Trump Could Be About To Ban COVID Vaccines; Report

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Trump health officials could be about to recommend a complete stop to covid vaccines for all age groups in the US, according to a report.

The move would effectively ban the vaccines amid widespread suggestions that they are having expansive side effects and causing a spike in excess deaths.

The Daily Mail outlines how Dr Jay Bhattacharya, President Trump’s nomination to lead the National Institutes of Health (NIH), has backed a petition calling for the mRNA vaccines to be paused and retested.

Covid vaccine faces ban for all Americans in radical U-turn by Trump team https://t.co/1rnPceYzbL

— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) February 19, 2025

Bhattacharya, an Infectious diseases expert, has signed on to the Hope Accord, which claims there is a ‘casual link’ between the mRNA shots and an alarming rise in excess deaths worldwide, the report further notes.

For too long important voices have been silenced.

Slowly that is changing.

Add your name to The Hope Accord and help them be heard: https://t.co/jL8eIoTO1v pic.twitter.com/r0SylR76JF

— The Hope Accord (@TheHopeAccord) November 8, 2024

The report also asserts that new Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr is ready to axe the shots if the data supports such a move.

RFK previously petitioned the FDA to revoke emergency authorisation of the shots six months after they were rolled out, citing a lack of data for their effectiveness or safety.

Kennedy has since said that while he wouldn’t have directly blocked the vaccines if he was in government, “I would have made sure that we had the best science, and there was no effort to do that at that time.”

Dr Aseem Malhotra, a British cardiologist who is being considered for a health advisory role in Kennedy’s team, has also called for the jabs to be suspended and reassessed.

Bhattacharya was a co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration in which thousands of scientists called for a policy of herd immunity over lockdowns and vaccinations.

He was also one of the many experts who was censored and attacked during the pandemic for challenging the orthodoxy.

Bhattacharya previously warned that “When you take a position that is at odds with the scientific clerisy, your life becomes a living hell.” 

Speaking at the Academic Freedom Conference at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, Bhattacharya, who previously described lockdowns as the most catastrophically harmful policy in “all of history,” and “the single worst public health mistake in the last 100 years,” noted “we have a clerisy that declares from on high what is true and what is not true.”

He added that he has come to the conclusion that “academic freedom is dead.”

The most recent CDC data shows that 45 percent of adults over 65 years old have taken the most recent Covid booster shot, while 23 percent of Americans over 18 years of age have gotten it.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 18:35

Putin: 'I Will Meet Donald With Pleasure'

"I will meet Donald with pleasure" – that's what President Putin expressed Wednesday in a brief televised interview with RT. He further outlined some conditions for such a meeting, saying that it can't just involve sitting for some tea or coffee, but both the Russian and American diplomatic teams which met in Riyadh the day prior must thoroughly prepare to negotiate issues most important to each, particularly the Ukraine crisis.

Interestingly, Putin described that Trump's timetable for achieving peace in Ukraine changed and this was inevitable and 'natural' – given that upon entering office he was able to see the fuller scope of intelligence information, and the greater complexities of the conflict. Putin made mention of the potential for peace within six months (referencing the White House change), in contrast to Trump on the campaign trail talking just 'days'.

‘I will meet Donald with pleasure’ – Putin

Putin lays out the conditions for meeting https://t.co/lICjGuSqrf pic.twitter.com/4UxB7rzLtm

— RT (@RT_com) February 19, 2025

Putin also called the Trump team 'completely different' in terms of positive openness and willingness to work with Moscow, in contrast to the prior Biden administration, and given the Riyadh meeting took place without bias and on "friendly" terms, and with no "condemnation of what had been done in the past" – meaning the two sides showed willingness to move forward and not rehash a blame-game.

Of the Tuesday Saudi-hosted talks, which lasted four-and-half hours, Putin described: "It is impossible to solve many issues, including the Ukrainian crisis, without increasing trust between Russia and the United States" – and stressed that the process is about restoring this trust, toward a resolution of the conflict.

He was further quoted in Interfax saying of the talks: "Yes, I have been informed. I rate them highly, there are results."

As for Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, his follow-up assessment after leading the delegation in Riyadh was as follows: "Moscow and Washington need to clean up the legacy of former US President Joe Biden's administration, which ruined the foundation of long-lasting cooperation between the two countries."

"For now, it is necessary to clean up the legacy of the Biden administration, which did everything to destroy even the first hints at, the very foundation of long-term partnership between our countries," Lavrov added.

Meanwhile, without doubt Kremlin leaders are enjoying Trump's fresh blasting of Zelensky. Trump in a Wednesday post on Truth Social called the Ukrainian President a "modestly successful comedian" who essentially tricked the US into spending hundreds of billions for a war that "couldn't be won" and should have never started. Trump further referenced "A Dictator without Elections" said the Ukrainian leader "better move fast" or he "won't have a country left."

Trump team 'completely different' in positive openness to work together — Putin pic.twitter.com/SsaS5JCRBZ

— RT (@RT_com) February 19, 2025

Likely this will only add to Putin's willingness to meet with Trump, which would be a first since 2021. Putin's spokesman on Wednesday remained cautiously optimistic: 

“Maybe. Or maybe not,” Peskov said, responding to a question about the possibility of the Trump-Putin summit in February.

Peskov described the meeting in Riyadh as a “very, very important step” toward resolving the Ukraine conflict, while emphasizing that “naturally, it’s impossible to fix everything in a day or a week. There is still a long road ahead.”

But Trump said after the Riyadh talks that he feels "much more confident" about brokering a deal to end the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, goodwill and trust was build when Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made clear while in Germany last week that Ukraine will not be joining NATO, which has been a crucial request of Moscow from the start.

At the G20 summit in Buenos Aires in November 2019, via Reuters

Given that Trump is now outright personally insulting Zelensky for mismanagement of the war and of his country, this could actually serve to hasten a face-to-face Putin-Trump meeting. Both sides have signaled it could happen by month's end. Peskov has affirmed both sides are preparing for the bilateral presidential summit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 18:10

"We're Winning Across The Board": Raskin Takes Premature Victory Lap Just Before Slew Of Court Losses

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

On CBS’s Face the Nation, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D., Md.) repeated the talking point of Democratic politicians and pundits that the courts are stopping President Donald Trump’s lawless actions taken after his inauguration. Raskin declared “we’re winning in court…we’re winning across the board.”

The boast was dubious at best on Sunday given earlier losses, but became embarrassing on Monday and Tuesday as additional courts ruled in favor of the Trump Administration in major cases.

For weeks, some of us have expressed confusion over the basis for some of the Democratic challenges and initial injunctions in court. President Trump clearly has the authority to designate federal officials to look at the books and track expenditures in the executive branch. After losing both houses and the majority vote, Democratic groups sought to use the courts to block such executive actions.

There was obvious forum shopping as these groups went to many of the same courts and judges for relief. 

However, even judges viewed as decidedly hostile to Trump like Judge Tanya Chutkan in Washington ultimately balked at the demand for an injunction and allowed the access and actions to continue.

On Monday, Judge Randolph Moss, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia delivered a blow to groups seeking to block the Department of Government Efficiency from gaining access to data from the Department of Education on student borrowers. 

Judge Moss found in his ruling that the University of California Student Association failed to show sufficient irreparable harm to receive such immediate relief.

He, however, left the door open a crack: “The Court leaves for another day consideration of whether USCA’s has standing to sue and has stated a claim upon which relief may be granted. Those questions are less clear cut and are better answered on a more complete record.”

Judge Chutkan also refused to grant the plaintiffs’ request to issue a temporary restraining order of Doge, again citing the failure to demonstrate evidence of “irreparable harm.”

There was a palpable sense of reluctance, even regret, in the opinion by Chutkan who noted that “Plaintiffs legitimately call into question what appears to be the unchecked authority of an unelected individual and an entity that was not created by Congress and over which it has no oversight.”

This, of course ignores the “elected individual” in the body of the President who is allowed to delegate such responsibility to subordinates. Chutkin would have been reversed by the higher courts if she had issued the requested TRO as demanded by the coalition of 14 Democratic state attorneys general.

Even before Raskin’s boost, U.S. District Judge John Bates also rejected a request to block DOGE from accessing records of three government agencies, writing in his own opinion Friday that plaintiffs “have not shown a substantial likelihood that [DOGE] is not an agency.”

Likewise, challengers thought that they had a victory in hand when U.S. District Court Judge George O’Toole enjoined the buyout offer by the Administration. Some of us criticized the injunction as lacking any cognizable basis given the clear authority of the President to make such an offer. Then, as many were citing the victory as proof of the Trump Administration’s unlawful actions, Judge O’Toole lifted the injunction on the buyout program, agreeing to allow the buyouts to go forward.

Then Judge Randolph Moss (D.D.C.) in Doe v. Office of Personnel Mgmt. rejected another challenge to testing by the Office of Personnel Management (“OPM”) of a new email system. The federal employees argued that the move violated federal law including privacy protections. The court, however, ruled that the “Plaintiffs have failed to carry their burden of demonstrating (1) that they likely have standing to bring this action, and (2) that they are likely to suffer irreparable injury in the absence of emergency relief.”

These and other setbacks do not mean that new cases cannot be brought with new records and parties. However, it is a far cry from the claim of Democrats “winning across the board.”

Of course, Raskin is not alone in the perils of premature celebration:

For those members like Raskin opposing the freeze on hiring and payouts, there is even an example of losing to the Freeze due to a premature celebration:

The race is far from over so both sides may want to stay focused on the finish line in the ongoing litigation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 17:50

India's Tata Consultancy "Gaming The US Visa System" And Falsifying Applications, Former Workers Allege

In 2017, as Donald Trump took office with a crackdown on employment visas, former Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) IT manager Anil Kini alleges he was ordered to falsify internal organizational charts to make the company appear more manager-heavy.

Kini claims this was a cover-up to evade scrutiny over TCS’s use of L-1A manager visas, which have fewer restrictions than H-1B visas and lack minimum pay requirements, according to a new feature by Bloomberg.

Kini and two other former TCS employees filed whistleblower lawsuits under the False Claims Act, alleging the company used L-1A visas to bring in non-managerial workers. However, the cases were dismissed before the visa fraud claims were examined, with Kini’s still under appeal. He says he resisted altering the charts and was fired in 2018 after filing his lawsuit.

Federal data reviewed by Bloomberg indicates that TCS has received more L-1A approvals than the number of managers it disclosed to the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, suggesting possible misuse of the visa program. TCS, which serves major U.S. tech firms, has secured more L-1A visas than any other employer in recent years.

The company denies any wrongdoing, stating that courts have already dismissed these allegations.

While Trump initially opposed employment visas, arguing they undercut American workers, his stance has shifted, now expressing support for such programs. This has created tensions between his traditional nationalist base and newer tech-industry allies. Meanwhile, legal experts note that gaming the L-1A program is common, with federal authorities uncovering nearly 200 cases of misuse in the past decade.

The Bloomberg feature says that False Claims Act lawsuits let whistleblowers sue companies on behalf of the U.S. government, often alleging corporate fraud against taxpayers. These cases gain traction when the Justice Department joins, but the DOJ declined to back any lawsuits against TCS over L-1A visa misuse, including Anil Kini’s.

TCS stated in legal filings that an internal review found “most of the issues raised” by Kini were unsubstantiated and claimed it had “already taken corrective action” on those that were. However, the company did not disclose what its inquiry revealed. A federal judge dismissed Kini’s case in February, ruling he failed to prove how TCS’ visa practices violated financial obligations to the U.S. government.

Kini, who appealed the decision, says he refused to alter organizational charts and filed two internal complaints before suing in 2017. He was fired the following year, which he calls retaliation. TCS did not comment on his dismissal. “I was proud to be working for TCS,” he said. “But then some things in life, there should be integrity in what you do.”

In another case, Vinod Govindharajan, an Indian national, alleges TCS falsely claimed he was a manager in 2013 to secure an L-1A visa, bypassing stricter H-1B rules. He says the company brought him to New Jersey, where he worked a sales job with no subordinates and was paid half of what American colleagues earned. Frustrated, he filed a 2018 complaint with the EEOC, which later found “credible documentary evidence” that TCS “frequently falsifies documents in support of L-1 visa applications.” The agency also determined Indian visa workers were underpaid and that TCS retaliated against Govindharajan for speaking out.

However, the EEOC lacks authority over immigration or employment visa wage laws, which fall under separate federal agencies. There’s no indication it shared its findings with them. An EEOC spokesperson cited confidentiality rules in declining to comment. “It was a dream of mine to move to the U.S.,” Govindharajan said. “But I was doing a sales role, nothing to do with management.”

You can read the full writeup here. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 17:30

American AI Should Be Quintessentially American

Authored by Richard Porter via RealClearPolitics,

The United States and Europe have long shared a common political culture rooted in the ideals of the Enlightenment. These include the primacy of personal freedom; individual autonomy; the inherent equal moral standing of human beings; acceptance of diverse viewpoints; and the use of logic, intellectual rigor, and critical thinking to understand the world. The Western alliance’s raison d’etre is protecting those ideals – and the societies built on the foundation of these ideals – from authoritarian regimes.

J.D. Vance restated our commitment to these ideals in two powerful speeches last week – to a Paris conference on artificial intelligence and then to the Munich Security Conference. America’s newly installed vice president directly challenged European political elites who, fearing freedom, are drifting away from these ideals as they seek to squelch popular political movements while becoming autocratic themselves. For some reason, leaders in the audience were visibly stunned. They shouldn’t have been.

Vance’s rhetorical fluency was his ticket into politics. Both his recent speeches were deftly crafted and temperately delivered. They accurately reflected MAGA’s disgust over reflexive regulation by self-loathing elites who limit freedom in the name of “democracy,” and who seek to cover up government incompetence and dishonesty by deconstructing Western culture as somehow inherently racist.

In Munich, the vice president made it clear that our shared Enlightenment ideals are central to the Trump administration’s security policy and our ongoing commitment to the alliance. In Paris, Vance proclaimed that less government interference is essential to winning the AI race, and that AI should remain free from the ceaseless demands of woke culture:

Number one, this administration will ensure that American AI technology continues to be the gold standard worldwide, and we are the partner of choice for others, foreign countries, and certainly businesses as they expand their own use of AI. Number two, we believe that excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it’s taking off, and we’ll make every effort to encourage pro-growth AI policies. And I like to see that deregulatory flavor making its way into a lot of the conversations at this conference. Number three, we feel very strongly that AI must remain free from ideological bias and that American AI will not be co-opted into a tool for authoritarian censorship.

This third point is not aimed at Europe alone, or China, for that matter. The context here is that AI is being created by human beings who have political perspectives. AI will always have an ideology or ethic. So, let’s talk directly about the perspective that will make AI as useful (and humane) as possible.

Extrapolating on Vance’s point, U.S. companies and software engineers could adopt this refrain: “Embracing the goals of the Enlightenment, American AI must avoid bias and authoritarian censorship. It must pay homage to the primacy of personal freedom, individual autonomy, and the inherent equal moral standing of human beings. It must also celebrate diverse viewpoints while also elevating the use of logic, intellectual rigor, and critical thinking to understand the world.”

Because Western elites now doubt this ideology, the Trump administration should explicitly endorse these ideals in its AI policy as emphatically as it does in its security policy.

American-developed AI should be humane, pragmatic, logical, and possess common sense, so that AI actually advances and spreads knowledge instead of being a tool for propagating dogma, stifling intellectual curiosity, or advancing creeping European-style authoritarianism.

Google’s generative AI tool, which now provides the “top” response for most queries, shows how urgently we need to reframe the AI already in the marketplace. While earlier versions of Google’s AI product were mocked for producing ahistorical imagery, the current version is still infused with a left-wing, anti-analytical, anti-American perspective. This matters because Google’s AI is now the primary source of information for the entire world.

For example, consider how Google’s generative AI answers these queries.

Is the U.S. structurally racist?

Yes, the United States is structurally racist. Structural racism is a system of policies, practices, and norms that create and maintain white supremacy. It affects the health, education, employment, and economic status of people of color and others marginalized in society.

Does DEI make companies more profitable?

According to research from McKinsey and other studies, yes, implementing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) practices can generally make companies more profitable by fostering a wider talent pool, boosting innovation, and leading to better decision-making within diverse teams, ultimately improving financial performance; companies with higher diversity in their leadership tend to outperform their peers financially.

(One of the citations actually states that the results of the McKinsey studies could not be replicated, a fact the AI ignores.)

Is healthcare ever free?

Yes, healthcare is free for everyone in some countries, but not in the United States.

(Obviously healthcare is never free – someone needs to pay the doctors and build the hospitals.)

Of course, today’s AI will be seen as primitive in just a few years, but it should be worrisome not just to the Trump administration, but to all free-thinking Americans that AI’s first draft was written by left-wing activists. AI must instead be designed to question, consider, and analyze different alternatives and express uncertainty when appropriate; AI won’t be useful, and could even be dangerous, unless it’s programmed to actually be thoughtful.

Also, American AI should be quintessentially American, reflecting the best of the culture that produced our exceptional nation. We will ultimately fail in our common cause of making America great again if U.S. history is written by its haters, its economics are explained by Marxists, and “the science” is allowed to replace the scientific method. 

Richard Porter is a lawyer in Chicago and an advisor to the Alfa Institute, a policy and idea accelerator founded by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 17:10

Trump Praises $4.5 Trillion Tax Cut In House Budget, Wants Senate R's To Get With The Program

President Donald Trump threw his support behind a House budget plan calling for a $4.5 trillion tax cut, and encouraged Senate Republicans to abandon a short-term funding effort and coordinate with the House to implement "my FULL America First Agenda, EVERYTHING, not just parts of it."

"The House and Senate are doing a SPECTACULAR job of working together as one unified, and unbeatable, TEAM, however, unlike the Lindsey Graham version of the very important Legislation currently being discussed, the House Resolution implements my FULL America First Agenda, EVERYTHING, not just parts of it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

"We need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to "kickstart" the Reconciliation process, and move all of our priorities to the concept of, "ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL." Trump continued.

The "Lindsey Graham version" refers to a vote scheduled this week in the Senate that would add $150 billion to military spending and increase immigration and border enforcement by $175 billion - which some Republicans say they want to move on quickly, while waiting to resolve contentious disputes over tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling.

House Speaker chimed in on X, saying that Trump "is right," adding "House Republicans are working to deliver President Trump’s FULL agenda - not just a small part of it."

.@realDonaldTrump is right!

House Republicans are working to deliver President Trump’s FULL agenda - not just a small part of it.

Let’s get it done, @HouseGOP! pic.twitter.com/Hw32oLAl0z

— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) February 19, 2025

Trump's comments have complicated efforts by Senate Republican leaders to drum up support for this week's budget vote, while the House - which is taking a one-week break for the President's Day holiday, is struggling to come up with enough votes for the budget plan because of the party's narrow majority, Bloomberg reports.

Adopting the budget is the first step in a special process Republicans intend to use to bypass minority senate Democrats on tax and spending legislation. A budget plan would allow Republicans to overcome procedural obstacles in the Senate with a simple majority rathe than the 60 votes it would otherwise take.

The House has drafted a plan to allow $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in exchange for $2 trillion in spending cuts and a $4 trillion increase in the debt ceiling. The House plan would direct $300 billion to military and border spending but the larger bill is expected to take months to hash out.

The plan which includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts was approved in committee ahead of possible floor votes later this month. According to House leaders, their slim majority makes it easier to pass one bill vs. breaking it into several pieces.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 16:50

RFK Jr. Lays Out His HHS Agenda: 'Nothing Is Going To Be Off Limits'

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

In his first address to staffers at the Department of Health and Human Services, HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. promised that “nothing is going to be off limits” in his pursuit to reduce the chronic disease epidemic.

“Some of the possible factors we will investigate were formerly taboo or insufficiently scrutinized,” Kennedy told HHS staff, Tuesday morning. “I’m willing to subject them all to the scrutiny of unbiased science.”

Some of these previously taboo concerns, he said, include “the childhood vaccine schedule, electromagnetic radiation, glyphosate, other pesticides, ultra processed foods, artificial food additives, SSRI and other psychiatric drugs, PFAS, PFOAs, microplastics.”

RFK Jr. reminded HHS staff that an “overwhelming majority” of our Founding Fathers were “citizen scientists,” including “Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, John Adams, James Madison, Benjamin Franklin, Benjamin Rush, a physician, Julian Bartlett, a physician, Matthew Thornton, a physician, and Oliver Wolcott, a physician.”

HHS Secretary announces the MAHA Commission will study scientific topics critics have labeled "taboo."
- Childhood vaccine schedule
- Electromagnetic radiation
- Glyphosate & other pesticides
- Ultra-processed food
- Artificial food additives
- SSRIs & antidepressants
- PFOAs and… pic.twitter.com/cLBLXzW3Fw

— Paul D. Thacker (@thackerpd) February 19, 2025

“Science and democracy were born together during the enlightenment, and they share the same ideals for openness, for public access, and for transparency,” he said.

No one trusts science that isn’t transparent about its research hypothesis, its raw data, or its conflicts of interest. No one trusts a government built on lies, on secrets, on cover ups, and propaganda. That’s why my uncle famously observed that the word secrecy is repugnant to a free and open society.

RFK Jr. told the bureaucrats at HHS that a key “reason why our agencies have lost public trust is that they have become too politicized,”  and that “there’s no such thing as Democratic children or Republican children.”

“Science gets politicized when power and profit are involved, and power and profit are blind to compassion,” he continued. “Reducing the influence of money, therefore, goes hand in hand with depoliticizing HHS.”

Kennedy lamented that a “fog of narrative warfare” had left Americans with a warped view of his character and beliefs.

“Let’s start a relationship by letting go of any preconceptions that you may have about me,” he stated. “I’m going to keep asking questions but hold my preconceived answers lightly. I’m willing to be wrong,” Kennedy said.

“I’m not going to impose any of my beliefs over yours,” he added. “Instead, we’re going to launch a new era of radical transparency. Only through radical transparency can we provide Americans with genuine informed consent, which is the bedrock and foundation of Democracy.”

RFK Jr. continued: “It’s no secret that many of our institutions of our Democracy, and even of science and medicine, are no longer transparent.”

Because of this, he argued, these institutions “have become inefficient, dysfunctional or corrupt,” and in some cases, become “captive to profit-making industries and stagnated in bureaucratic secrecy.”

Kennedy acknowledged however that the majority of people in our public health agencies have good motives and are “competent, ethical, caring and idealistic.”

“I believe that most of you here are not here for the money,” he told his HHS audience.

“My goal as Secretary here at HHS will be to create a culture of competency, of ethics, of openness, of transparency, of caring, and of pride so that individuals who share these ideals can flourish and thrive,” Kennedy said. “Those who are unwilling to embrace those kinds of ideas can retire,” he added.

RFK Jr. vowed to “remove conflicts of interest” at HHS whenever possible or “balance them with other stakeholders,” and to shut the revolving door to outside companies “to restore public trust.”

“We will make our data and our policy process so transparent that people won’t even have to file a FOIA request,” he promised.

RFK Jr. also pledged to bring Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) into HHS to make Medicare and Medicaid more efficient.

“The same DOGE technology that has uncovered vast amounts of waste and fraud can be used to better serve our fellow citizens who depend on these programs to make sure that no one is left behind and no one is left out,” he said. “We will aim to set a standard of courtesy, efficiency, professionalism, and integrity that will make HHS again the envy of the world.”

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 16:30

Schiff: Wall Street Is Clueless About Gold

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold Stocks vs. Bullion: Why the Lag?

You might think that the price of physical gold and the performance of gold mining stocks should more or less always move together, since higher gold prices typically boost miners’ revenues. However, there are instances—like now—where physical gold prices surge while gold mining stocks stay flat or even decline. There are a lot of reasons this can happen, but it sometimes represents a buying opportunity.

Take 2000-2011, which of course includes the 2008 financial crisis. The price of physical gold rocketed up over 500%, but gold mining equities returned almost 700% during the same decade. During bull markets, the cost of gold production rises slower than the value per ounce of bullion, which gold miners can leverage.

However, any number of market factors could cause a gold mining stock to underperform bullion in the shorter term despite a boom in bullion prices, but the lag usually doesn’t last. This isn’t to say that gold mining stocks are a replacement for physical gold in a portfolio. Unlike physical gold, they aren’t money—they’re stocks. But they’re inextricably linked to gold, and as part of a diversified precious metals investment portfolio, Peter Schiff still recommends allocating investment capital to gold miners, especially when they appear undervalued.

Kinross Gold was down about 7% last week simply because analysts overshot the mark and expected earnings that Kinross didn’t meet. That’s in spite of an objectively strong 82% rise in earnings. But oftentimes, when markets react, they overreact. 

Gold stocks as a group are barely up today, despite gold's $23 rise, to trade just below $2,930. I think that's entirely due to the market's over-reaction to Kinross's strong earnings report not being as strong as expected, despite the stock already being extremely underpriced.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 13, 2025

Other times, inflationary pressure, rising prices, labor shortages, trouble at gold mines where a company is invested, legal surprises, and other factors can temporarily drag down mining stocks even as gold booms. In 2024, Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD) had to shut down a mine in Mali due to a dispute with authorities relating to new mining laws. Barrick hopes to reopen the mine, but had to revise their 2025 output projections because of the closure. 

These kinds of geopolitical risks can disrupt production and negatively impact investor confidence, causing stock prices to fall even when gold prices are rising. Unlike Kinross, however, Barrick’s recent earnings and production report caused the stock to jump. But it’s still currently undervalued relative to the boom in bullion, which is likely to continue in 2025.

Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD) 5-Day Chart

Gold stocks can also go down due to investors reacting to gold and silver spreads. With the gold/silver ratio currently around $90, investors may be unwinding their positions to take profits or cut losses. As Peter Schiff noted last Friday on X/Twitter:

“Yes, gold is down nearly $40 today, but there’s no reason for gold mining stocks to be down too. Gold is barely below $2,900, and prices are going much higher. Yet most gold stocks would be cheap at twice the price. Some of today’s decline may be unwinding of gold/silver spreads.”

Another problem with the short-term valuation of gold stocks is coming from the inability of Wall Street analysts to understand and properly model when it comes to gold and gold miners. Forecasting earnings for these mining companies, in part, means having to forecast the price of bullion itself.

Wall Street is clueless about gold. Analysts who cover Barrick Gold have to estimate future earnings to rate the stock. To do that, they also must estimate future gold prices. With gold trading today above $2,900, they now estimate a $2,400 gold price to forecast 2027 earnings.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 10, 2025

The Fed is not in control. Inflation is ripping as the money supply expands, prices are rising, and gold will respond with further gains. But Wall Street remains clueless about gold, which affects the valuation of mining stocks. As Peter Schiff said recently on X Spaces:

“All the Wall Street firms, when they rate these gold stocks, they assume the price of gold is going to be much lower in the future than it is now. They have no confidence in this rally. That’s why they don’t want to buy gold stocks because they expect the price of gold to fall, even though it’s going to continue to rise.”

Regardless of when Wall Street and retail investors figure it out, the yellow metal remains the undisputed safe-haven asset, especially with inflation hot and the possibility of QE later this year to “save” the system. Hard money will never change. But the broader global precious metals market is more than just physical. 

With gold mining stocks potentially outperforming bullion during certain time frames, and a pattern of being undervalued during this latest bull market, diversifying into a group of winning miners is a move worth considering as gold readies to surpass $3,000 for the first time in history.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 15:40

"Ukraine Has Scorched Earth; What It Doesn't Have Is Rare Earths"

In recent weeks, discussions have emerged around President Donald Trump's proposal for a deal that would grant the US exclusive access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals in exchange for continued military aid. Last weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the proposal, even though US officials had pitched the deal as an integral part of lasting peace in resolving the multi-year war that has killed hundreds of thousands.

Trump and top officials have articulated that the US wants a guarantee of $500 billion worth of Ukraine's estimated trillion dollars of rare earth wealth.

Financial Times noted last week that Ukraine's rejection of the US proposal as follows: 

Zelenskyy wants American and European security guarantees to be tied directly to any deal on the mineral reserves, according to four people familiar with the US-Ukraine negotiations. He is also keen for other countries, including EU states, to be involved in future natural resource exploitation.

But the deal proposed by Trump and delivered by Bessent only referenced the US getting Ukrainian resources in exchange for past military assistance, and did not contain any proposals for similar future assistance, according to a person familiar with the document.

If the FT's report is accurate, the Trump administration may attempt to recoup US losses from the war by seeking a substantial stake in Ukraine's rare earth minerals deposits. 

However, some remain skeptical that Ukraine's rare earth mineral deposits are worth a trillion or more... 

"What Ukraine has is scorched earth; what it doesn't have is rare earths. Surprisingly, many people — not least, US President Donald Trump — seem convinced the country has a rich mineral endowment. It's a folly," Bloomberg's Javier Blas penned in an op-ed on Wednesday. 

More from Blas questioning Ukraine's rare earths deposits:

I was puzzled. To the best of my knowledge, Ukraine has no significant rare-earth deposits other than small scandium mines. The US Geological Survey, an authority on the matter, doesn't list the country as holding any reserves. Neither does any other database commonly used in the mining business.

Simply put, "follow the money" doesn't work here. At best, the value of all the world's rare-earth production rounds to $15 billion a year — emphasis on "a year." That's equal to the value of just two days of global oil output. Even if Ukraine had gigantic deposits, they wouldn't be that valuable in geo-economic terms.

Say that Ukraine was able, as if by magic, to produce 20% of the world's rare earths. That would equal to about $3 billion annually. To reach the $500 billion mooted by Trump, the US would need to secure 150-plus years of Ukrainian output. Pure nonsense

However, Blas acknowledged that his analysis could be wrong and that Ukraine may, in fact, have substantial deposits.

He outlined two possible explanations for this:

I see two possibilities: that Trump is right — and I'm very wrong — and Ukraine has, in fact, lots of rare earths; or that he misspoke, and rather than "rare earths" he meant other minerals. Or perhaps he took the small potential of a single element — scandium2 — and extrapolated.

Let's explore the second option, because at least it would make some sense. While Ukraine doesn't have commercial rare-earth deposits, it does have mines housing other minerals. Before its war with Russia, Ukraine produced significant amounts of iron ore and coal. Neither are strategic, but the country had been making decent money from both. Problem? Some mines lie now in territory conquered by Russia.

Maybe Trump conflated "rare earths" with the much broader concept of "critical minerals." Of the latter, Ukraine has some commercial mines of titanium and gallium. Both are fairly valuable and have some strategic importance, but then again, controlling either wouldn't alter geo-economics. And they certainly aren't worth Trump's expressed $500 billion.

Still, the American president steadfastly referred to rare earths; not once, but several times. So then, perhaps he knows something the commodity world doesn't. But I found no credible source that says Ukraine is brimming with reserves.

Every document someone has pointed out to me regurgitates the same conspiracy-theory claims found on the blogosphere. They tend to mistake accumulations of some rare-earth-bearing minerals as equating with a commercial mine. Many highlight the Novopoltavske deposit, discovered by the Soviets in 1970, as a potential source. While tiny amounts of rare earths are present there, digging them out seems impossible — hence why the site remains an unproductive deposit rather than a mine more than 50 years after its discovery. The Ukrainian government has described Novopoltavske as "relatively difficult" to mine and said that any rare-earth yield would be "off balance," meaning that it's not economical to exploit them at current prices. Worse, the mineralogy goes against it: The host source is a mineral that makes extracting the elements very hard.

The worst of the pamphlets claiming Ukraine has a rare-earths cache bears the North Atlantic Treaty Organization imprint and has been widely shared as the "Trump-is-right" proof. It was produced in December 2024 by the NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence, based in Lithuania. Although affiliated with the military alliance, bearing its name and logo, the entity and its counterparts are autonomous bodies outside the command chain. The document is provocative: "Ukraine emerges as a key potential supplier of rare earth metals such as titanium, lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, uranium…" The list should ring every alarm. Anyone with a passing knowledge of chemistry knows none of those minerals are rare earths.

Why NATO's imprint is attached to the report, which appears devoid of basic fact-checking, is beyond comprehension. A spokesperson told me the views reflected those of the author rather than NATO — something the document doesn't say.

If that's the source Trump's advisers used to convince him of Ukraine's rare-earth riches, it would be depressing — global politics based on copy and paste. It would suit the Kafkaesque year of 2025 well.

And this is not the first time Washington has used geology in a war zone to justify empire-building. 

Blas noted, "Back in 2010, the US announced it had discovered $1 trillion of untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, including some crucial for electric-car batteries, like lithium. The Pentagon went as far as describing Afghanistan as "the Saudi Arabia of lithium."" 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 15:20

Miller Embarrasses CNN Over Absurd Trump-Musk DOGE Question

Authored by Luis Cornelio, via Headline USA,

White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller on Thursday turned a CNN interview on Tuesday into a civics lecture, humorously educating host Brianna Keilar on who runs President Donald Trump’s DOGE. 

JUST IN: Stephen Miller starts laughing at CNN's Brianna Keilar while explaining to her how the government works as if she's a child.

"I understand that even a temporary interruption in federal employment is a great crisis, a catastrophe for you and for CNN."

"What the American… pic.twitter.com/omyJJXn6Gu

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) February 18, 2025

Miller’s remarks came in response to leftist cynicism over a court filing in which the Trump administration stated that tech mogul Elon Musk is neither an employee nor the administrator of DOGE.

Democrats have attempted, albeit unsuccessfully, to thwart Musk’s involvement in DOGE, but Trump has made it clear that Musk serves as a special advisor. That basic fact appeared lost on Keilar. 

“Who is in charge of DOGE?” she asked.

“The president of the United States,” Miller replied with a noticeable smile.

“He’s the administrator of DOGE?” Keilar pressed, prompting Miller to take her on a walk down memory lane about DOGE’s beginnings. 

“No,” he shot back.

“DOGE is what was formerly U.S. Digital Service, is an agency of the federal government that reports to the Executive Office of President, which reports to the president of the United States.” 

He continued,

“The way Article II works is that: the president wins an election, and then he appoints staff—including myself, including [National Security Advisor] Mike Waltz, including [White House Chief of Staff] Susie Wiles, including Elon Musk—and those staff report to him.”

Keilar, seemingly frustrated, interjected, “Okay, well aware.” 

She then played a clip of Musk inside the Oval Office with Trump, referring to DOGE as “our” task force. Keilar seemingly attempted to suggest that Musk was, in fact, running it.

“Did you hear him there? ‘We post OUR actions. All of OUR actions are maximally transparent.’ Does Elon Musk know he’s not in charge of DOGE?” Keilar asked. 

Miller immediately shot back: 

“Again, the president runs the government, the president appoints advisors, including Elon, including myself, including all the other staff at the White House and then those staff in turn, execute the president’s commands and directions to all agencies of the federal government. This is how democracy works, something that we treasure in America.”

Miller’s response countered Democrat claims that Musk is somehow plotting a hostile takeover of the federal government, though these claims conveniently ignore that Musk is simply following Trump’s orders. 

CNN viewers wouldn’t know this if they relied on Keilar. 

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 15:00

MSM Melts Down Over 'Jaw-Dropping Pivot In US Foreign Policy' After Trump Ripped 'Dictator' Zelensky

Update(1452ET): As expected the reaction from mainstream pundits and Ukraine's backers to Trump's Wednesday post decrying Zelensky as a "dictator" who "better move fast" on striking a peace deal and holding elections or else "he won't have a country left" has been swift and fierce.

The 'fact-checkers' are also out in force, for example with the NY Times quickly putting out a piece entitled "Trump Falsely Says Ukraine Started the War With Russia. Here Is What to Know." They want the public to know why "the country isn’t holding elections." And below is what CNN's frontpage is currently displaying, reviving the old debunked 'Russiagate' talking points of supposedly 'parroting Russian talking points':

Many are using this moment to draw a line in the sand, describing Trump as in a state of "madness" and saying it's time for the world to unambiguously side with Zelensky, as did this German/Greens party member of European Parliament:

The only possible reaction to this madness is to openly and unambiguously side with President @ZelenskyyUa and his people. This time vis-a-vis a country and superpower you never could have imagined you would have to.

— Sergey Lagodinsky (@SLagodinsky) February 19, 2025

And Puck News' co-founder Julia Ioffe is dumbfounded and outraged: "What I cannot understand is why the American establishment and its institutions are folding so quickly. What are you people so afraid of? You never even had gulags," she wrote in an emotional appeal on X.

There's also the absurd accusations that Trump has 'switched sides' - after Zelensky strongly suggested earlier that Russia is feeding him 'disinformation'...

„Mr. Trump is in the middle of executing one of the most jaw-dropping pivots in American foreign policy in generations, a 180-degree turn that will force friends and foes to recalibrate in fundamental ways.“ https://t.co/1fGguKnKSb

— Nikolaus von Twickel  (@niktwick) February 19, 2025

And the reaction from the neocons has been predictably loud: "Trump’s characterizations of Zelensky and Ukraine are some of the most shameful remarks ever made by a US President. Our support of Ukraine has never been about charity, our way of life at home depends on our strength abroad," John Bolton wrote.

More from Europe:

Olaf Scholz challenges Trump for calling Zelensky a dictator: 'It is simply false and dangerous to deny Zelensky democratic legitimacy' In turn, German FM Baerbock called Trump's words 'completely absurd'.

But Vice President J.D. Vance is pushing back alongside other top Trump admin officials, warning that Zelensky will regret this feud and 'badmouthing' President Trump:

Statements by US Vice President also corroborate my prediction that US could remove Zelensky because of his refusal of peace deal: "EXCLUSIVEJD Vance warns Zelensky he will regret 'badmouthing' Trump and condemns his 'atrocious' response to peace talks.

Vice President J.D. Vance… pic.twitter.com/zt2S1pE6Sr

— Ivan Katchanovski (@I_Katchanovski) February 19, 2025

And Musk too has been pushing back. For example he tweeted out the following list by prominent pro-Trump account @DC_Draino: 

Want to know why Trump called Zelensky a Dictator? Here are the FACTS:

• He’s in year 6 of his 5 year term
• Declared martial law Feb 2022 and has banned elections since then
• Banned 11 political parties
• Passed law in 2022 to censor journalists and combined all news into one gov’t station
• Journalists investigating his corruption get conscripted and thrown on the front lines to die

The list ended with the observation that "Even Saddam Hussein held elections!" We should add to this list the ongoing persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church by the Zelensky government, merely because it maintains spiritual communion with the Moscow Patriarchate.

Zelensky cannot claim to represent the will of the people of Ukraine unless he restores freedom of the press and stops canceling elections! https://t.co/bg2SEJgT47

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 19, 2025

Meanwhile...

Russia has been trying to play it cool, but Trump is moving to their side so fast they’re struggling to hold back the jubilation https://t.co/iVDVZ0NShg

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 19, 2025

* * *

President Trump has absolutely excoriated Zelensky in a growing tit-for-tat which is fast turning into an exchange of wide-ranging criticisms and direct insults. Trump in a fresh Truth Social post has dismissed the Ukrainian leader as a "modestly successful comedian" who essentially tricked the US into spending hundreds of billions for a war that "couldn't be won" and should have never started.

Worse, Trump blasted Zelensky as "A Dictator without Elections" given that he "refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden 'like a fiddle.' Trump added: "I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues..." and said the Ukrainian leader "better move fast" or he "won't have a country left."

These are by far the harshest words Trump has ever hurled at Zelensky yet, even on the campaign trail (where previously he dubbed Zelensky as the "world's greatest salesman". Below is the full post which is sure to fuel the flames of controversy further, as European always also express bitterness over Trump's peace talks with Russia...

* * *

How did we get here?

Much as expected, President Volodymyr Zelensky is reeling in the wake of President Trump's Tuesday evening words from Mar-a-Lago wherein he blasted critics of his Ukraine peace initiative, including Zelensky himself. Responding to a reporter's question about Zelensky and his European partners demanding a seat at the table in any negotiations with Moscow, Trump had said, "You’ve been there for three years. You should’ve ended it in three years. You should have never started it."

But perhaps the most personally insulting words aimed at Zelensky on Tuesday was when Trump ripped him for canceling elections with no movement on democracy or toward making peace with Russia. "We have a situation where we haven't had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law ... the leader in Ukraine, I hate to say it, but he's down at 4% approval rating... the country has been blown to smithereens... the country looks like a massive demolition site," he said.

Zelensky hit back Wednesday, telling a Ukrainian broadcaster that Trump lives in a disinformation bubble. The Ukrainian leader specifically referenced Trump's words from the day prior repeatedly asserting that the war "should never have started." He said Trump's team needs "more truth" and followed with:

"Unfortunately, President Trump – I have great respect for him as a leader of a nation that we have great respect for, the American people who always support us – unfortunately lives in this disinformation space," Zelensky said.

He further suggested (in a clear throwback to the debunked 'Russiagate' narrative of US Democrats) that it is Russia that's feeding Trump falsehoods on the conflict and situation in Ukraine.

Via AP

Zelensky said: "As we are talking about 4%, we have seen this disinformation, we understand it’s coming from Russia."

Of course, the reality is that it's impossible to know - given that not only is there a war raging chiefly in the country's east, but there's been no elections or polling whatsoever - and Zelensky's term expired back in May 2024.

Last Saturday, Zelensky sought to address the growing criticism of the undemocratic situation, saying his country can't hold elections as martial law is still in effect. "I’m focusing on the survival of our country, and I am doing it really all my term," he said.

"I’m ready to speak about elections if you want," he continued, claiming that "Ukrainians don’t want, totally don’t want, because they are afraid, because otherwise we will lose the military loan, the war loan, our soldiers will come back home, and (Russian President) Putin will occupy all our territory."

He argued that he has maintained the unity of the country amid the Russian invasion...

"So it’s not about myself. It’s about the future of our country. The question is to survive to save Ukraine, our independence, our people, (and) our homes. And if somebody doesn’t like (it), they can choose another citizenship," he said.

He was also asked about the question of the US taking NATO membership off the table, somewhat shocking European allies this week. "If we are not in NATO, then as I said, NATO has to be in Ukraine. We will need an army comparable with soldiers of Russia; it’s 1.3 or 1.5 million soldiers," he said.

A sampling of what Zelensky is so angry about from Tuesday's Trump presser...

Zelensky is a completely incompetent president , makes absurd statements, and his leadership has allowed the war to continue, - Trump.

WOW pic.twitter.com/pzjw5c8ewW

— Russian Market (@runews) February 18, 2025

And as we reported previously, he let his frustration and anger with Trump be known in abruptly cancelling a pre-scheduled state visit to Saudi Arabia. He stated fact that the US held direct talks with Russia (in Riyahd) "helped Putin out of his long isolation."

Putin has since acknowledged that a full restoration of relations with Washington is underway, and that talks will continue. Putin and Trump might meet by month's end, both sides have indicated.

* * * 

Meanwhile...

Given that we are supposed to be defending democracy, there should be democracy https://t.co/6w1BnG4h66

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 19, 2025

Given that Washington has always been the real power-broker in Ukraine, the clock is ticking...

*  *  *

Flash Sale at ZH Store! 20% off IQ Smart Protein Collagen Peptides (stacks with volume /subscription discounts) & ZH Multitools for a limited time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 14:52

Libra, Solana Drama: Meteora Co-Founder Resigns, Jupiter Begins Probe

Authored by Tom Mitchelhill via CoinTelegraph.com,

The launch of the highly controversial LIBRA memecoin, which Argentine President Javier Milei briefly promoted, has embroiled the crypto industry in an emerging global scandal. 

Disregarding for a moment the impact of the token’s launch on international politics — with President Milei’s own sister reportedly receiving payments from LIBRA founder Hayden Davis and Milei facing calls for impeachment — the coin has sparked major controversy involving key industry leaders in the Solana ecosystem. 

The price of SOL has also tumbled more than 17% since the launch of LIBRA on Feb. 14, falling from $204 to $169 at the time of writing, according to from Cointelegraph. 

SOL has dropped more than 17% in the last five days. Source: Cointelegraph

Meteora co-founder Ben Chow chose to resign from his role at the decentralized exchange, according to a Feb. 18 statement made on X by Jupiter’s pseudonymous founder Meow, who is also a co-founder of Meteora. 

Meow said the resignation was related to Chow’s “lack of judgement and care” relating to core aspects of Meteora’s business.

Source: Meow

Over the last three months, the Meteora platform has facilitated a series of high-profile memecoin launches for viral influencer Haliey Welch (HAWK), US President Donald Trump (TRUMP), First Lady Melania Trump (MELANIA), and most recently, Libra (LIBRA).

In the wake of these launches, several market participants have accused members of the Meteora team of insider trading and other unethical financial activity. 

DeFiTuna founder surfaces allegations against Meteora

On Feb. 18, DeFiTuna founder Moty Povolotsky — who goes by Caveman Dhirk on X — claimed that Chow had enabled a network of influencers who profited significantly from the celebrity launches, despite the threat posed to retail market participants.

Source: Moty Povolotsky

“It has been an internal secret that there is a massive spiderweb of influencers who are banking millions from the Meteora community enabled by the leadership team of Ben,” he wrote.

Moty stated that his firm had accepted an investment of $30,000 from Davis’ firm, Kelsier, on Jan. 16. However, he said that in the wake of the LIBRA launch, he “refunded Kelsier and cut all ties.”

But Meow claimed that no one from either Meteora or Jupiter had been involved in any wrongdoing regarding the launch of LIBRA or any other tokens:

“I’d like to reiterate my confidence that no one at Jupiter or Meteora committed any insider trading or financial wrongdoing, or received any tokens inappropriately.”

In an earlier Feb. 17 statement on X, Chow himself also denied any insider activity at Meteora surrounding the launch of LIBRA. 

Chow said neither he nor the Meteora team ever received or managed tokens “on the side,” nor did they have any other knowledge concerning “offchain dealings” with the tokens. 

“To maintain the high levels of confidentiality, very few people in Meteora have access to any launch information,” said Chow.

“Neither I nor the Meteora team compromised the $LIBRA launch by leaking information, nor did we purchase, receive, or manage any tokens.”

How celebrities launch memecoins on Meteora

Chow also explained the process of how celebrities and politicians go about launching a token on Meteora. 

“They typically need to hire a ‘deployer’ and/or market-maker, which is a service we do not provide,” Chow said. 

“These deployer teams are typically experts in using Meteora’s SDK or CLI and can design more sophisticated launches, as our tech allows for tons of customization. In the past, if a project did not have those resources, they would often ask me for deployer and/or market-making referrals,” he added.

He said there was nothing exclusive or unique about the relationship between Meteora and LIBRA deployer Davis.

Other industry pundits, including the pseudonymous crypto trader Curb, claimed that a Jupiter employee engaged in sniping the token’s launch. However, due to the small amounts used by the wallet address in question — ranging from $10 to $250 — it’s unlikely these were attempts at sniping and are more likely to be erratic trading behavior. 

Source: Curb

Jupiter launches investigation into LIBRA

In the wake of the LIBRA fallout, Meow announced that he would engage law firm Fenwick & West to investigate the situation and publish an independent report. 

However, after receiving backlash from legal experts on X in regard to Fenwick & West’s prior dealings with crypto firms - it is currently facing a lawsuit over claims it was directly involved in helping FTX blur its relationship with Alameda Research in 2022 - Meow said he would reevaluate his call and decide whether to engage a different law firm instead.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 14:25

FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed 'Pause', Potential QT Taper; Officials Blame Trump Policies For Uncertainty

Since the last FOMC meeting - on Jan 29th - the market has coped admirably well with the utter avalanche of headlines spewing from Washington (and around the world). Gold has been the standout choice while stocks, bonds, oil and the dollar are all about flat...

Source: Bloomberg

The macro data has been a nightmare (for The Fed) with stagflationary impulses clear as growth surprises have been to the downside while inflation surprises have soared to the upside...

Source: Bloomberg

...which helps explain why rate-cut expectations have tumbled since the last FOMC statement...

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, FedSpeak since the last meeting has been guardedly hawkish with Powell reiterating his 'no rush to cut' comments and various other Fed heads noting that the central bank is 'in a good place' after they removed the optimistic 'inflation keeps trending down' language from the prior statement.

So, bearing in mind that hot CPI and PPI (and inflation expectations from soft survey data) will not be included in these Minutes, what does The Fed want us to focus on?

Here are the initial highlights:

Fed's on hold (confirmation)

The Fed's 19 officials who participate in its interest-rate decisions indicated that “they would want to see further progress on inflation before making” any further cuts.

Fed blames Trump:

The minutes also cited a “high degree of uncertainty” surrounding the economy, which made it appropriate for the Fed to “take a careful approach” in considering any further changes to its key interest rate.

Fed officials said that President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and mass deportations of migrants, as well as strong consumer spending, were factors that could push inflation higher this year.

And diving into the details:

Monetary Policy

• Some participants cited potential changes in trade and immigration policy as having potential to hinder disinflation process.

• Vast majority of participants judged risks to dual mandate objectives were roughly in balance.

• A couple of participants noted it appeared that risks to achieving inflation mandate were greater than risks to employment mandate

• Majority of participants observed that the current high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the Committee to take a careful approach in considering additional adjustments to the stance of monetary policy.

• Many participants noted that the Committee could hold the policy rate at a restrictive level if the economy remained strong and inflation remained elevated, while several remarked that policy could be eased if labor market conditions deteriorated, economic activity faltered, or inflation returned to 2 percent more quickly than anticipated.

Balance sheet

• Various participants noted it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until resolution of debt ceiling dynamics.

• Many participants noted after conclusion of balance sheet runoff it would be appropriate to structure asset purchases to move maturity composition closer to outstanding stock of Treasury debt.

• Reserves might decline quickly upon resolution of the debt limit and, at  the current pace of balance sheet runoff, might potentially reach levels below those viewed by the Committee as appropriate.

• Fed survey respondents forecast balance sheet runoff process concluding by mid-2025, slightly later than previously expected.

On financial stability risks

• Participants noted a range of factors that warranted monitoring. Several participants mentioned issues related to the banking system. A few commented that bank funding risks had lessened and that many banks had improved their ability to access the discount window; however, a couple observed that some banks had increased their reliance on reciprocal deposits, and that the stability of these deposits had not been tested in a time of stress.

• Several participants noted that some banks remained vulnerable to a rise in longer-term yields and the associated unrealized losses on bank assets.

• Several participants also mentioned potential vulnerabilities at nonbank financial institutions or nonfinancial corporations to a rise in longer-term yields or to leverage in these sectors.

• A few participants noted concerns about asset valuation pressures in equity and corporate debt markets.

• A few participants discussed vulnerabilities associated with CRE exposures, noting that risks remained, although there were some signs that the deterioration of conditions in the CRE sector was lessening.

Inflation

• A number of participants remarked that current readings of 12- month inflation were boosted by relatively high inflation readings in the first quarter of last year, and several participants noted that cumulative inflation over the past 3, 6, or 9 months showed greater progress than 12-month measures.

• Most participants commented that month-over-month inflation readings in November and December had exhibited notable progress toward the Committee's goal of price stability, including in some key subcategories.

• Many participants, however, emphasized that additional evidence of continued disinflation would be needed to support the view that inflation was returning sustainably to 2 percent.

• Participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain uneven

• Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs.

• Some participants noted that some market- or survey-based measures of expected inflation had increased recently, although many participants emphasized that longer-term measures of expected inflation had remained well anchored.

• Some participants remarked that reported inflation at the beginning of the year was harder than usual to interpret because of the difficulties in fully removing seasonal effects, and a couple of participants commented that any increase in reported inflation in the first quarter due to such difficulties would imply a corresponding decrease in reported inflation in other quarters of the year.

On Policy Outlook

• In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, a majority of participants observed that the current high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the Committee to take a careful approach in considering additional adjustments to the stance of monetary policy.

• Factors mentioned by participants as supporting such an approach included the reduced downside risks to the outlook for the labor market and economic activity, increased upside risks to the outlook for inflation, and uncertainties concerning the neutral rate of interest, the degree of restraint from higher longer-term interest rates, or the economic effects of potential government policies.

• Many participants noted that the Committee could hold the policy rate at a restrictive level if the economy remained strong and inflation remained elevated, while several remarked that policy could be eased if labor market conditions deteriorated, economic activity faltered, or inflation returned to 2 percent more quickly than anticipated.

Read the full Fed Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 14:00

Quantum Computing Stocks Soar After MSFT Unveils "Majorana 1"

Quantum computing stocks surged in late-morning trading after Microsoft unveiled its first quantum computing chip. The rally is a welcome boost for the tech startups, which have struggled to regain upside momentum following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's remarks in early January, which warned that quantum computers were decades away—comments that sent shares crashing. 

"Microsoft today introduced Majorana 1, the world's first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture that it expects will realize quantum computers capable of solving meaningful, industrial-scale problems in years, not decades," Microsoft wrote in a press release. 

It's important to note that Microsoft stated, "Today's announcement puts that horizon within years, not decades." 

This contradicts Huang's comments from Nvidia's analyst day event, in which he said: "If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it's probably on the late side."

There seems to be a significant time gap between Microsoft's outlook on quantum computing and that of Nvidia's CEO.

About a week after Huang's comments last month, MSFT published a blog declaring that 2025 is "the year to become quantum-ready."

Jason Zander, a Microsoft executive vice president, told CNBC: "There's a lot of speculation that we're decades off from this," adding, "We believe it's more like years."

Zander said the Microsoft quantum chip might become available through Azure Quantum cloud service by the end of the decade. 

The last month and a half has been a rollercoaster for quantum stock investors...

So, who is right on quantum chip timelines... Nvidia CEO? Or Microsoft? 

Just wait until Huang doubles down on his timeline.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 13:45

Soft 20Y Auction Tails As Foreign Buyers Shrink

In a day seeing another push higher in yields, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's lone coupon auction and it could have been better.

Pricing at a high yield of 4.830%, this was a 7bps drop from last month's 4.90%, but while January's auction stopped through the When Issued by 1.1bps, today we saw a 1.0bps tail to the 4.82% When Issued, the 5th tail in the last 6 auctions. 

The bid to cover dropped from 2.75 to 2.43, the lowest since November and below the recent average of 2.54.

The internals were also disappointing with Indirect bidders taking down 63.0%, down from 69.5% in January and below the 67.5% recent average usually awarded to foreign buyers. And with Directs awarded 19.5%, Dealers were left holding 17.5%, above the recent average of 15.6%.

Overall, this was a soft and slightly disappointing auction, if nothing too dramatic, and despite the tail and soft internals, there was barely a move in the secondary market where yields continue to trade near session highs.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/19/2025 - 13:28