Destroyed Home Among Pacific Palisades Fire Rubble Receives More Than 60 Offers

It turns out that one person's fiery rubble and personal tragedy is another's treasure...

That seems to be the case now that one home destroyed in the Pacific Palisades fire has received more than 60 offers.

The home has been reduced to rubble except for two chimneys and a few brick columns and hit the market for $999,000 just 10 days after last month’s blaze, according to Bloomberg.

Now, after receiving over 60 offers, it's now in escrow for well over $1 million, the listing agent said.

Richard Schulman, the listing agent, commented: “I can just tell you, generally, that people selling are going to take a huge financial hit.”

Bloomberg writes that the sale highlights tough choices for fire victims. Seller Terri Bromberg is accepting far less than her home’s pre-fire value instead of waiting to rebuild after 20 years of ownership.

Before and after (Photo: Bloomberg)

Most homeowners affected by January’s Palisades and Eaton fires, which killed 29 people and destroyed over 11,000 homes, are still weighing their options. Cleanup has just begun, and reconstruction could take years.

The burned home, built in 1976, last sold for $1.54 million in 2005 and was once valued at $2.7 million. In contrast, Pacific Palisades’ median home price was $3.97 million at the end of last year.

The listing described the property as “a blank canvas for visionary buyers.” Investors offered as little as $600,000, while the top bidder plans to rebuild and sell for at least $3.2 million, according to agent Schulman.

“We thought there was an advantage to be one of the first to market,” Schulman said. “It was intentionally a teaser asking price.”

Seller Terri Bromberg, a widow nearing 70, said she hasn’t “crunched the numbers” but most of her insurance payout will cover the $656,000 mortgage. The fire destroyed everything—“turned to dust,” she said—including her artwork, her late husband’s Grammy awards, and her wedding ring.

An artist specializing in glassware, Bromberg is buying a smaller home in Santa Monica to live and work with her daughter and son-in-law, who narrowly escaped the fire.

“My daughter said she doesn’t want to go back and live in the hills. It was too scary,” Bromberg said. “It used to be paradise. Eventually it will return.”

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Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 20:30

Bird Flu Is A Rerun Of The COVID Playbook

Authored by Clayton Baker, MD, via The Brownstone Institute,

Bird flu can be very confusing. This is true because, as is so often the case with our government, those who claim to be trying to solve the problem – our so-called “public health” and “pandemic preparedness” “experts” – are actually the ones who created the problem. What is worse, they are actively seeking to perpetuate it.

In this brief article, my goal is to explain what is happening with H5N1 Bird flu in the clearest, most fundamental terms. I hope to make it so clear that all our elected officials can understand what is going on, and therefore can take action to stop it.

The key to understanding the current Bird flu panic is this: Bird flu is a complete rerun of the Covid script. There is just one twist:

• Last time, with Covid, the pandemic-planning bioterrorists directly blackmailed us by taking away our civil rights, in order to coerce us to accept their unsafe and ineffective vaccines. 

• This time, with Bird flu, the pandemic planning bioterrorists are indirectly blackmailing us by targeting our food, in order to coerce us to accept more of their unsafe and ineffective vaccines into our food supply and those who supply it.

Here is their playbook. Learn it, and you can understand how to put an end to it.

Let’s review. What happened during Covid? 

1. Over many years, bioweapons scientists, under the guise of “pandemic preparedness,” genetically manipulated a bat coronavirus to be both transmissible and virulent in humans. In other words, they created a bioweapon.

2. Meanwhile, they also developed and patented technologies for vaccines against that same virus. In other words, they created the countermeasure to their bioweapon.

3. In late 2019, the lab-manipulated coronavirus bioweapon, SARS CoV-2, was leaked from a lab. 

4. While the countermeasure vaccines were rushed into production, “public health” authorities took advantage of the lab leak by denying its occurrence, while simultaneously coercing governments to impose lockdowns and other civil rights violations on the human population.

5. To perpetuate the lockdowns, “public health” authorities performed indiscriminate PCR testing for the virus among the population, knowing full well this would generate countless false positives.

6. The authorities used this excessive testing along with media-generated fear-mongering and governmental abuse of power, to prolong the lockdowns and the civil rights abuses.

7. The lockdowns and civil rights abuses were used to blackmail the population into mass acceptance of the vaccines into their own bodies, in exchange for a return to normal life.

What is happening now, with H5N1 Bird flu?

1. Over many years, bioweapons scientists, under the guise of “pandemic preparedness,” have genetically manipulated the H5N1 avian influenza virus to cross classes of animals and even become more transmissible to humans. In other words, they created a bioweapon.

2. Meanwhile, they also developed and patented technologies for vaccines against that same virus. In other words, they created the countermeasure to their bioweapon.

3. In early 2022, a lab-manipulated Bird flu bioweapon leaked from the USDA Southeast Poultry Lab in Athens, GA. Multiple Bird flu leaks have also occurred from other labs.

4. While the countermeasure vaccines are being rushed into production, “public health” authorities take advantage of these lab leaks by denying their occurrence, while simultaneously coercing our government to impose mass slaughter of farm animals, creating food shortages for the human population.

5. To perpetuate the mass slaughter and worsen food shortages, “public health” authorities are performing indiscriminate PCR testing for the virus among the animal population and farmers, knowing full well this will generate countless false positives.

6. Authorities are using this excessive testing along with media-generated fear-mongering and governmental abuse of power, to prolong the mass slaughter of farm animals and the food shortages.

7. The mass slaughter of farm animals and resulting food shortages are being used to blackmail the population into mass acceptance of the vaccines in their food supply, in exchange for a return to normal life.

This is not conspiracy theory. This is basic pattern recognition.

The “pandemic planners” are operating just like a moderately competent, if unimaginative, high school football coach. If you run a play, and it works, run it again. Keep running it until they stop it.

How do we stop it?

Here’s how:

1. End the brutal mass slaughter of poultry flocks immediately. This disgusting, death-wish practice is directly analogous to the deadly and unconstitutional human lockdowns during  Covid. It is also an act of biological terrorism. It traumatizes farmers, wastes resources, creates food shortages, is inhumane in the extreme to animals, and does nothing to stop the virus. Let the flocks develop natural immunity. Slaughtered flocks cannot develop natural immunity to a virus, just as locked-down human populations cannot either. Sound familiar?

2. End the indiscriminate PCR testing for Bird flu in animals and humans immediately. A positive PCR test is like the proverbial grand jury indictment – you can get one on a ham sandwich if you try hard enough. Willy-nilly PCR testing creates innumerable false positives, which fuels the fear porn and hysteria, paralyzes decision-makers, and promotes population-wide blackmail. 

3. The USDA appears to be acting as a rogue agency. The USDA’s leadership needs to be thoroughly reviewed and, well, culled. All those attached to the pandemic preparedness industry, and all those perpetuating the fear-mongering, irresponsible mass PCR testing, mass slaughter of animals, etc. must be immediately removed from the agency. They represent not only a threat to animals and the food supply but to President Trump’s entire second term.

4. The personnel at the CDC need a similar prompt and thorough overhaul. The CDC, while somewhat chastened by President Trump’s executive order silencing HHS agencies, and benefitting from the departure of former Director Mandy Cohen, is still led by Biden-era appointments whose past resumes raise serious doubt about their willingness to abandon the  Covid-era “pandemic planning” model of public health. For example, acting director Susan Monarez, PhD’s bio shows multiple Deep State connections to the pandemic preparedness industry. Should she remain at the CDC?

5. The USDA Southeast Poultry Research Lab in Athens, Ga. should be shut down and thoroughly investigated.

6. The Kawaoka Bird flu lab at the University of Wisconsin, which has been doing reckless gain-of-function research for decades, and which has had multiple lab leaks, should be shut down and investigated as well.

7. Brooke Rollins, the new USDA Secretary, needs to be fully briefed on H5N1 Bird flu by honest experts who are not embedded in the pandemic preparedness industry. Individuals such as Meryl Nass, MD, and Peter McCullough, MD and his team would both be excellent choices.

8. President Trump should follow through on his 2024 promise to disband the redundant, Biden-created Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy (OPPR). Mr. Trump’s instinct was correct then, and it remains correct now.

9. The $590 Million dollar Bird flu vaccine development contract to Moderna that the Biden administration approved a couple of days before President Trump’s inauguration should be cancelled. 

10. The USDA’s reported “conditional approval” of a Bird flu vaccine with Zoetis should be cancelled. Bird flu vaccination in poultry flocks has been demonstrated in other countries to select for more virulent strains. Furthermore, the CEO of Zoetis has close ties to Pfizer, BlackRock, and the Gates Foundation, all well-established bad actors during the Covid era. Beware, Mr. President.

The “pandemic preparedness” racket isn’t as complicated as it seems. Once one comes to terms with the fact that the arsonists are running the fire department – as they have been demonstrated by DOGE to be doing in so many other areas of government as well – we can recognize what is actually happening and apply the necessary solutions.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 20:05

CIA Reportedly Flying MQ-9 Spy Drones Over Mexico As Cartel Fight Nears

US Air Force spy planes have recently conducted signals intelligence (SIGINT) operations along the US-Mexico border, while Green Berets from the US Army's 7th Special Forces Group have been deployed to a naval facility in Campeche—a Mexican port city on the Gulf of Mexico—for what's described as a "training mission." These developments offer a clearer picture of President Trump's emerging strategy to combat Mexican cartels, which have fueled a drug death catastrophe of 100,000 Americans per year. This approach aligns with Trump's designation of these cartels as "foreign terrorist organizations." 

The CIA, operating under the Trump administration, has been secretly deploying unarmed (at the moment) General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper drones over regions of Mexico dominated by heavily armed drug cartels, according to a CNN report. The report comes from current and former officials with knowledge of ongoing national security operations, shedding light on what is happening under the cloak of darkness - in preparation to disrupt and dismantle drug cartels. 

Here's more from the report:

Some current and former officials say designating cartels as terrorist groups could potentially lay the groundwork for direct US strikes against the cartels and their drug labs in Mexico.

The CIA has flown surveillance drones to hunt cartels inside Mexico before, according to a former and a current US official, under at least one small program that partnered with Mexican authorities.

But the more recent flights were communicated to Congress by the Trump administration using a particular notification reserved for new or updated covert programs that the CIA intends either to conceal or deny, a source familiar with the matter said — suggesting that the flights represent a distinct escalation. The notifications made no mention of Mexican partners, the source said.

CIA spokesperson told the media outlet that "countering drug cartels in Mexico and regionally is a priority for CIA as a part of the Trump Administration's broader efforts to end the grave threat from narco-trafficking. Director [John] Ratcliffe is determined to put CIA's unique expertise to work against this multifaceted challenge."

Here's the latest:

• USAF Spy Plane Runs SIGINT Operation Near Cabo As US Preps For Potential Cartel Fight

• USAF Spy Jet Flies Second SIGINT Operation On US Border With Focus On Narco Hub

• Border Czar "Expects" Kinetic Warfare Between US Troops & Mexican Drug Cartels

Beyond spy planes and drones conducting SIGINT and other surveillance operations in the region, as well as US Special Forces operators in Campeche, this should all be viewed as the beginning innings of the war against cartels. We suspect financial sanctions could be used to pressure Mexican banks to disrupt cartel financial networks. 

This is what 'America First' looks like. 

... and Kyle Bass could never be happier... 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 19:40

Education Department Cuts $600 Million From Ideological Training Programs For Teachers

 Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Education Department on Monday said it has canceled $600 million in grants for educator training programs that promote “divisive ideologies.”

Unused desks sit in an empty elementary school classroom at Hazelwood Elementary School in Louisville, Ky., on Jan. 11, 2022. Jon Cherry/Getty Images

The grants had been awarded to teacher preparation programs that trained future educators in what the department said were “inappropriate and unnecessary topics,” such as critical race theory, which promotes the fundamental framework view that racism is embedded in all institutions and aspects of society; diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI); and social justice activism. Some of the defunded programs also included race-based teacher recruitment and staffing strategies, according to the department.

The department provided examples of the defunded training programs, including those that required educators to acknowledge “systemic inequities” like racism and “critically reassess” their own teaching practices. Others offered professional development workshops on “Building Cultural Competence,” “Dismantling Racial Bias,” and “Centering Equity in the Classroom.”

Some initiatives guided teachers to “interrupt racial marginalization and oppression of students.” There were also programs promoting an “abolitionist pedagogy” which, according to Bettina L. Love, the professor who coined the term, applies a “critical race lens” to classrooms and encourages teachers to organize marches and boycotts against their colleagues perceived as “racist, homophobic, or Islamophobic.”

The decision to cut these grants aligns with the broader cost-cutting measures led by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an advisory body led by Elon Musk, and with President Donald Trump’s ongoing efforts to dismantle DEI initiatives across the federal government.

Trump on Jan. 21 signed an executive order directing government educational institutions to end all DEI efforts.

“Illegal DEI and DEIA policies not only violate the text and spirit of our longstanding Federal civil-rights laws, they also undermine our national unity, as they deny, discredit, and undermine the traditional American values of hard work, excellence, and individual achievement in favor of an unlawful, corrosive, and pernicious identity-based spoils system,” the order read. “The Federal Government is charged with enforcing our civil-rights laws. The purpose of this order is to ensure that it does so by ending illegal preferences and discrimination.”

A study by Parents Defending Education, an independent organization that rallies against ideological indoctrinations in K-12 schools, found that since 2021, the Education Department has spent at least $1 billion on various DEI-related initiatives. That includes approximately $490 million on DEI hiring efforts, $343 million on DEI programming, and $170 million on DEI-related mental health programs.

Over the weekend, the Education Department reaffirmed its stance that DEI initiatives conflict with federal non-discrimination laws. Its civil rights enforcement division warned that failure to ensure compliance could result in a loss of federal funding.

“The law is clear: treating students differently on the basis of race to achieve nebulous goals such as diversity, racial balancing, social justice, or equity is illegal under controlling Supreme Court precedent,” Craig Trainor, acting assistant secretary for civil rights, wrote in a letter sent to the education departments in all 50 states.

While emphasizing the obligations under Title VI, the federal law prohibiting discrimination based on race for institutions that receive federal dollars, the letter also referenced the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 decision, which found it unconstitutional for public and private colleges to use racial preferences in admissions.

“At its core, the test is simple: If an educational institution treats a person of one race differently than it treats another person because of that person’s race, the educational institution violates the law,” the letter said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 19:15

Alleged DOGE Imposters Demand Records From San Francisco City Hall

Authored by Rahel Acenas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Authorities in San Francisco are looking for three men who entered San Francisco City Hall on Friday, posing as employees of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The San Francisco City Hall in San Francisco, Calif., on Feb. 18, 2004. Hector Mata/AFP via Getty Images

The suspects entered various offices and demanded access to records “related to alleged wasteful government spending and fraud,” according to a statement by the San Francisco Sheriff’s Office.

The three men were wearing Make America Great Again (MAGA) hats and DOGE shirts and authorities believe they were imposters.

“We do not believe the individuals requesting access to City files were representatives from DOGE,” the sheriff’s office said.

City Hall employees refused to hand over any information and alerted law enforcement. By the time authorities had arrived, however, the three suspects had left the building.

The sheriff’s office is now reviewing surveillance videos and “using other investigative tools to pursue leads,” it said.

DOGE, an advisory panel launched by Trump, has been tasked with weeding out wasteful federal government spending, fraud, and abuse.

California recently joined 18 other states in suing the federal government to stop DOGE from accessing Treasury Department records including Americans’ social security and bank information. The court granted a temporary restraining order while the states seek a preliminary injunction.

“Our country cannot afford to have people in the driver’s seat who move fast and break things, especially when the things they’re breaking are critical and sensitive systems that millions of Americans’ rely on,” Attorney General Bonta said in a statement. “The President does not hold the power to give Americans’ bank account and social security numbers to anyone he’d like—and as of Friday night, he must stop doing so.”

Meanwhile, a judge in Washington on Feb. 14 declined a request by unions and nonprofits for a temporary restraining order to prevent the DOGE team from gaining access to records at the Department of Labor, the Department of Health and Human Services, as well as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

While speaking to reporters on Thursday, Musk defended DOGE’s efforts to drastically cut spending, saying that Americans voted for major change and that the Trump administration is delivering.

President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Feb. 11 directing government agencies to consult with DOGE on slashing the federal workforce and “eliminating waste, bloat, and insularity.”

The order calls for massive cuts, including a directive “that each agency hire no more than one employee for every four employees that depart.”

The executive order provides some exemptions, including to the military and law enforcement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 18:25

In Dealing With China, Trump May Have A Trick Up His Sleeve

Authored by Bonner Russel Cohen via RealClearEnergy,

China is the only country in the world that can seriously challenge America’s longstanding status as the globe’s top dog. And a rejuvenated United States is the only thing standing in the way of an ambitious China ascending to the peak of the heap. The reemergence of a bipolar world in the 21st century – replicating the old U.S.-U.S.S.R. rivalry of the Cold War era – is the no-longer-to-be-ignored reality of our time.

However, unlike the late Soviet Union – sometimes referred to as “Haiti with missiles” – China is an economic powerhouse, one that puts is technological prowess in the service of its geostrategic aspirations. ”China has roughly nine times as many engineers as the U.S. and perhaps as many as 15 times as many science and technology graduates,” George Gilder recently noted in the Wall Street Journal. This gives China a decisive edge in a world where rapid advances in technology have far-reaching economic and military implications. 

There are, however, things that Trump and his team can do, and in some cases are already doing, that can turn the tables on Beijing. With the departure of the geopolitically inept Biden administration, Washington can now harness its considerable geological assets to the disadvantage of its rival in the Far East.

Beijing was quick to realize the importance of gaining control of both the mining and processing of rare earths and other critical minerals, which it had largely done by the time the U.S. and other industrialized countries embarked on their climate-driven green energy transition. Beijing was not so foolish; to meet its own energy needs, it built hundreds of coal-fired power plants. Abandoning fossil fuels, which the United States has in abundance, and embracing green energy, the supply chain for which is largely controlled by China, could benefit only one country. And for a while, China’s bet looked to be paying off. 

But China’s dominance of such sectors as electric vehicles, batteries that power EVs and serve to backup intermittent wind and solar energy, and the raw materials in wind turbines and solar panels makes the Middle Kingdom vulnerable to Trump’s renewed embrace of “American energy dominance.” One of Trump’s Jan. 20 executive orders titled “Unleashing American Energy” includes directives revoking the EV mandate, freezing unspent funds for green energy, expediting approval of liquid natural gas (LNG) export facilities, and streamlining the permitting process for oil and gas leasing, exploration, development, and production. It also speeds up the approval process for new pipelines and other critical fossil-fuel infrastructure. 

Another, less-reported section of Trump’s order focuses on the mining of critical minerals. It instructs federal agencies to identify all regulations, policies, and orders “that impose undue burdens on domestic mining and processing of non-fuel minerals and undertake steps to revise or rescind such actions.”

The geostrategic case for promoting the mining and processing of critical minerals in the U.S. is compelling. “China now produces 80-90% of the world’s rare-earth minerals, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Yet China has only about 37% of the world’s estimated reserves,” notes Greg Walcher, president of the Natural Resources Group LLC. “Relying on China for critical minerals is obviously not smart, not safe, nor necessary.” 

Known to the public for their unpronounceable names, rare earths – which are actually quite abundant – have a variety of commercial and military applications. They include smartphones, MRI equipment, satellites, jet engines, night-vision goggles, sonar on submarines and other naval vessels, and real-time imagery and targeting for surveillance and reconnaissance flights by unmanned aerial systems – just to name a few. 

Taking rare earths and other valuable minerals seriously means upgrading the nation’s hollowed-out domestic supply chain for these natural resources. This is the purpose behind Trump’s order to eliminate “undue burdens on domestic mining and processing” of these strategically important minerals. That, of course, will be easier said than done, because Trump’s initiative will be challenged by lawsuits launched by activists determined to cripple America’s industrial base.

Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland from Denmark must be seen in this light. The icy island where the North Atlantic meets the Arctic abounds in mostly untapped mineral resources. In bringing the giant island under American jurisdiction, in whatever form, Trump can deny China (and Russia) access to Greenland’s riches while solidifying the U.S. presence in the Arctic. 

Another Trump executive order temporarily halts offshore wind leases in federal waters and pauses approvals, permits, and loans for offshore and onshore wind projects. Aside from signaling to investors that putting their money into capital-intensive wind projects may not be a good idea, the order undercuts Beijing’s investment in raw materials used in wind energy. 

“Wind farms require 10 times the amount of critical minerals as natural gas power plants and 1.6 times as much as nuclear power plants,” writes the Heritage Foundation’s Austin Gae. 

China is the world’s leading supplier of raw materials that go into wind turbines, including in the U.S. Trump is deliberately shrinking the U.S. market for wind turbines and for the predominately Chinese-supplied raw materials that go into them. The goal is to play to America’s strengths, which lie in fossil fuels and a rejuvenated nuclear-power industry, while lowering our dependence on China by turning away from wind and solar power.

This is a winning strategy.

Bonner Russell Cohen, Ph. D., is a senior policy analyst with the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT).

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 17:40

BLM "Activist" Who Shot Disabled Veteran Released After Serving Just 3 Years Of 11 Year Sentence

BLM activist and Alamosa attorney James Edward Marshall IV, 33, who shot a disabled veteran during a 2020 Colorado riot, has been released to a halfway house after serving just three years of an 11-year sentence, according to the Post Millennial. 

Originally facing multiple violent charges, he took a plea deal under former DA Alonzo Payne, pleading guilty only to tampering with a deceased body, court records show.

In June 2020, Marshall IV shot disabled veteran Danny Pruitt in the head while Pruitt was stopped at an intersection near a BLM protest in Alamosa, Colorado.

Armed with a 9mm Glock, Marshall fired into Pruitt’s truck, critically injuring him. Pruitt, who survived after a 17-day coma, suffered permanent brain damage and struggles with memory, speech, and motor skills.

The Post Millennial reports that, at the time, Marshall claimed self-defense, but authorities found Pruitt posed no threat.

His plea deal, which dropped all violent charges in exchange for a guilty plea to tampering with a deceased body—a nonviolent third-degree felony—sparked outrage. The deal omitted any acknowledgment that a weapon was used or that Pruitt survived.

Attorney Matthew Beresky of the Rocky Mountain Victim Rights Center condemned the plea deal, calling it an affront to justice that ignored the severity of the crime and denied Pruitt his rights. He criticized allowing James Marshall to plead guilty to abusing a corpse when Pruitt was still alive.

The controversial deal contributed to the 2022 disbarment of DA Alonzo Payne, reportedly linked to George Soros.

Payne was found guilty of violating victims' rights, failing to communicate with key legal parties, and frequently dismissing or mishandling cases. Before his disbarment, he admitted neglecting crime victims and struggling with complex cases.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 17:20

Relief And Joy As Volunteers Help Freed Jan. 6 Prisoners Get Home

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

With a stroke of the presidential pen, people charged in connection with the U.S. Capitol protest on Jan. 6, 2021, were free. Many had no idea how they would get home.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Courtesy of Claude Heavin, Courtesy of Shelley Freeman, Courtesy of Nicky Long, Courtesy of Diane Heavin

After President Donald Trump signed pardons and commutations on Jan. 20, an estimated 300 people were released from 75 prisons in 35 states, according to Gary Heavin, a Texas philanthropist who raised funds for an operation to meet each of the prisoners and help them get back home.

“Everyone was scrambling to make sure there were people at the gates of these prisons” to welcome the former prisoners and help them with basic needs, Heavin told The Epoch Times.

The volunteers ensured that the ex-prisoners “were warm and fed, with a hotel to go to, and a phone to reconnect to their families,” he said. Volunteers also provided transportation, including commercial airline tickets or flights via private jets, including one that Heavin owns.

These volunteers and the people they helped told The Epoch Times that emotions overflowed as they shared time together. They described relief that the prisoners were freed and could return home. But they also decried how the U.S. justice system handled the Jan. 6 cases, and expressed concern over the continuing challenges that the ex-prisoners face.

“There were bad actors on Jan. 6. But whatever stupid things they did—like breaking glass or turning a table over—four years in prison covers it, not 21,” Heavin said. “If we care about injustice, then we have to care about these people.”

After Trump won the Nov. 5 election, the volunteer groups began planning for pardons and commutations, Heavin said. Trump had campaigned on promises to free the Jan. 6 “political prisoners.” But no one knew if—or when—the order would come.

Within hours of his inauguration, Trump commuted 14 sentences of serious offenders and pardoned the remaining 1,569 people.

The volunteers then set their plans in motion. Heavin and a second Texas pilot, Joe Heartsill, spent two and a half days executing Operation Airlift. From Jan. 21–23, they flew about 20 of the new releasees home; Heavin and his wife, Diane, say their plane traversed 8,000 miles.

Sharing Stories in Flight

As her husband flew the plane, Diane Heavin kept company with the passengers.

The Heavins shed tears as they heard tales of the prisoners’ ordeals and watched the freed men reunite with loved ones.

“I’ve never cried so much in my life,” Gary Heavin said, even though he has witnessed plenty of heartache while assisting people at scenes of earthquakes and hurricanes.

Helping those in need has been a major focus for the Heavins, even while they owned a major business, Curves fitness centers for women. In 2005, 13 years after the Heavins founded the company, Curves said it had expanded to 9,300 locations in 38 countries, making it the world’s 10th-largest franchise firm. The Heavins sold Curves in 2012 and retired, freeing up more time for philanthropy.

Each mission is an adventure, the Heavins say. They feel compelled to give back because they have been so successful.

“To whom much has been given, much is expected,“ Gary Heavin said. ”We’ve been very blessed, and honestly, rescuing people—you get more out of it than you put into it.”

(L–R) Pilot Gary Heavin, former Jan. 6 prisoner Glenn Brooks, and volunteers Diane Heavin, Nicky Long, Tim Long, and pilot Mark Harrington posed for a group photo just before the first Operation Airlift flight prepares to take off in Savannah, Ga., on Jan. 21, 2025. Courtesy of Claude Heavin Powerful Moments

The Heavins are parents of four, grandparents of five and great-grandparents of three. They were moved when they witnessed children reuniting with the prisoners.

Describing himself as “a manly guy who flies and stuff,” Gary Heavin said he teared up when he saw “a little girl who’s maybe 4 years old, hasn’t seen her father in two years, running, yelling, ‘Daddy, Daddy!’”

The Heavins also witnessed spouses burrowing heads into their loved ones’ chests and sobbing.

Diane Heavin said it affected her deeply when one of the prisoners exhibited what seemed to be a “PTSD moment,” referring to post-traumatic stress disorder. He suddenly became distrustful of her, saying, “Wait a minute; you know too much. You might be from the government.”

She spent several minutes convincing him that was untrue. Then he made a statement that hit her hard: “I didn’t know there were any good people left.” She replied: “Yes, there are a lot of good people.”

Asked about the former prisoners’ future, Diane Heavin said, “My hopes are that they can move on and not let this event define who they are. My fear is that they will be tainted with unforgiveness, bitterness, or unresolved anger.”

More Difficulties Loom

Diane Heavin said the releasees’ lives have been upended severely. One man told her “he just felt a great emptiness” and “he didn’t know where to begin to pick up the pieces,” she said.

Many of the released prisoners need to find work, but they don’t know how to overcome obstacles that their incarceration created. One man told Diane Heavin: “If I get a job and I don’t have a car, how am I going to get there? ... My credit’s been ruined while I was in prison for two years. So, you know, I can’t buy a car.”

Some have little or no family support after their marriages broke up and once-close relatives became estranged amid the politically charged prosecutions. And some Jan. 6 defendants “don’t have homes to go to,” Diane Heavin said.

“It really just breaks my heart that these people who were just standing up for their First Amendment rights could have been subjected to this kind of punishment, and then on top of that, lose everything,” she said.

Pete Schwartz, 51, waves as he heads from the airport in Sacramento, Calif., to his parents’ home in Owensboro, Ky., on Jan. 23, 2025. Courtesy of Shelley Freeman

If not for the volunteers helping the released prisoners, “a correctional officer told me that they would be let loose and sent to a bus station,” said Shelley Freeman, a volunteer who assisted Pete Schwartz. She told The Epoch Times that she paid out of her own pocket to provide housing, food, personal items, and a cellphone for him.

Like many Jan. 6 prisoners, he was held in a prison far from family members, making visits difficult or impossible. Schwartz was freed near Freeman’s California home—more than 2,000 miles away from his parents in Kentucky.

He returned to them via an airline ticket that American Patriot Relief purchased, Freeman said.

Nonviolent Man Grateful for Help

The first prisoner whom the Heavins picked up was Glenn Allen Brooks, 64. They flew him from Georgia to Virginia, where his sister lives.

On Jan. 6, 2021, Brooks was a latecomer to the U.S. Capitol; violent clashes between police and protesters happened before he arrived. He went inside the building to see what was happening, and sent photos to his church prayer group. Later, after offers of rewards for tips leading to suspected “insurrectionists,” a member of that prayer group reported Brooks to the FBI.

As a result, authorities interrogated Brooks twice, he told The Epoch Times. In July 2021, a SWAT team raided his home around 6 a.m., Brooks said, startling him as he read the Bible. After much legal wrangling, Brooks stood trial last year on allegations of disorderly conduct and trespassing. In September 2024, he began serving a six-month prison term.

On Inauguration Day, word had spread through Brooks’ prison that freedom might be imminent for him and two other Jan. 6 prisoners. But Brooks didn’t believe it until, as fellow inmates say, “you’re walking out the blue door,” which leads from that institution to the outside world.

A pair of  “ambassadors” for the Patriot Freedom Project, Nicky and Tim Long, greeted Brooks with a hand-drawn posterboard that reads: “Patriot Glenn Brooks, are you ready to go home?”

The Longs handed Brooks a winter coat, four suitcases full of clothes, food, and an iPhone. He felt showered with love and blessings. They drove him to a hotel room, provided by the group. Hours later, the Longs took him to an airport in Savannah. There, the Heavins awaited with their private jet.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 17:00

Hochul Scrambles To Oust Adams After NYC Mayor Starts Working With Trump

If a Democrat in power jumps off the Democrat plantation, they better watch their back.

Case in point, NY Mayor Eric Adams - who earned himself an FBI raid by the Biden DOJ after he began speaking out about illegal immigration wrecking the Big Apple.

Fast forward to Trump winning the 2024 election, and Adams has pledged to work with the new administration on their efforts to round up and deport illegals - while the Trump DOJ has moved to dismiss Biden's obvious lawfare against him.

This, in turn, has New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) on the warpath to boot Adams from office, claiming she has "serious questions" about the future of Adams' administration.

"Overturning the will of the voters is a serious step that should not be taken lightly," Hochul said. "That said, the alleged conduct at City Hall that has been reported over the past two weeks is troubling and cannot be ignored."

Calls for Adams to leave office intensified a week after a top official at the President Donald Trump’s Justice Department directed federal prosecutors in Manhattan to drop their pending bribery case. The DOJ has left open the possibility that charges could be refiled, sparking concern that the mayor is now beholden to the Republican president — who remains deeply unpopular with city Democrats. -Bloomberg

On Tuesday, Hochul called a meeting at her Manhattan office with key city leaders to discuss a 'path forward,' after four top deputies said they were resigning on Monday, and the speaker of the City Council called for Adams to step down.

"This administration no longer has the ability to effectively govern with Eric Adams as mayor," said NY Speaker Adams (no relation) in a Monday statement, adding that the Mayor's actions have led to "months of instability."

Meanwhile, Adams is meeting with notable city leaders, including the 'Reverend' Al Sharpton, Queens Borough President Donovan Richards, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and Comptroller Brad Lander, according to Bloomberg.

Early indications from the meetings suggest that Hochul, a fellow Democrat, will hold off on making a decision about Adams until after a hearing in federal court Wednesday over the Justice Department’s request to dismiss bribery charges against the mayor. Hochul has called allegations of a potential “quid pro quo” between Adams and the Trump administration “extremely concerning and serious.”

...

Adding to the pressure on Adams, US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries plans to talk to Hochul in the next few days about the situation unfolding at City Hall, according to spokesman Andy Eichar. -Bloomberg

"We’re going to wait to see what the judge says tomorrow so that we do not set a precedent," Sharpton said after a Tuesday meeting with Hochul.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 16:40

"Not Enough": Obama-Appointed Judge Denies Request To Halt Musk Access To US Agencies

Update (1627ET): In a separate case we highlighted on Monday, Obama-a US District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan has denied an emergency filing to block DOGE's access to federal records and government layoffs - saying in a 10-page decision that the 14 states who brought the lawsuit have failed to meet the burden of proof to prove "imminent, irreparable harm."

Just In: Judge Tanya Chutkan denies request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) which would block Elon Musk's access to certain government systems and limit DOGE's capabilities to make changes in reducing government spending.

Chutkan writes, "Plaintiffs have not carried… pic.twitter.com/qF9RW6oovg

— Ava-joye (@Avajoye) February 18, 2025

"The court is aware that DOGE’s unpredictable actions have resulted in considerable uncertainty and confusion for Plaintiffs and many of their agencies and residents," wrote Chutkan. "But the ‘possibility’ that defendants may take actions that irreparably harm plaintiffs ‘is not enough.’"

New Mexico and other states had asked Chutkan to block DOGE and Elon Musk, a special government employee leading the DOGE efforts, from the Office of Personnel Management, the Department of Education, the Department of Labor, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of Energy, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of Commerce.

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Earlier:

A federal judge declined to block the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing the Department of Education’s student financial aid data on Feb. 17, the Epoch Times reported.

The ruling stems from a lawsuit brought by the University of California Students Association (USCA) against the Education Department and its acting secretary, Denise Carter.

The suit alleged that DOGE, in seeking to access the Education Department’s records, will have access to the students’ personal information, including social security numbers, as well as detailed financial data of their parents.

U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss ruled that the plaintiffs had not shown sufficient irreparable harm to warrant emergency injunctive relief.

“Because the Court concludes that UCSA has failed to clear that essential hurdle, the Court’s analysis also ends there,” the judge wrote.

“The Court leaves for another day consideration of whether USCA’s has standing to sue and has stated a claim upon which relief may be granted. Those questions are less clear cut and are better answered on a more complete record.”

The USCA suit alleged that DOGE’s actions in accessing the department’s records would violate federal regulations, including the Privacy Act of 1974, which prohibits the department from sharing this data with a third party.

“Plaintiff UCSA’s members are among the 42 million federal student loan borrowers who have provided sensitive personal information to [the Education Department] in order to obtain a federal student loan,” the plaintiffs’ complaint stated.

“These are people who trusted [the department] with their sensitive personal information” when filing for student loans and grants, the complaint stated.

One UCSA student, remaining anonymous because of her family’s immigration status, submitted a supplemental declaration saying that DOGE accessing her records had given her anxiety and was causing her to reconsider her application for graduate school.

The department responded that the lawsuit is without merit, and raises “separation of powers concerns by impermissibly intruding into the President’s superintendence of the Department of Education.”

“There is no violation of the Privacy Act when employees of an agency, like the six individuals at issue here, access agency systems to perform their job duties,” the response stated.

A declaration by the education department’s chief information officer Thomas Flagg says that the department “routinely shares information with other Executive departments and agencies as part of other, non-DOGE-related initiatives, which [he does] not understand to be at issue in the litigation for which I submit this declaration.”

Moss drilled into both sides of the case in a hearing on Feb. 14, seeking to understand if DOGE employees who had been assigned temporarily to work at the department could be considered employees of that agency.

Moss highlighted what he saw as a “unique lack of transparency” in DOGE’s work.

“We don’t know who these folks are or what they are doing,” he said at the hearing.

The judge asked the plaintiffs if it was ever appropriate for government employees of an agency to conduct an audit.

Attorneys for the plaintiffs responded that it “depends on the nature of the audit.”

Likewise, the judge queried lawyers for the government about the broad scope of DOGE’s data acquisition.

“What would happen if the political director of the White House obtained the tax records of every Democrat candidate?” he asked.

The judge was also concerned that the student’s data was being fed into an AI portal for processing and sought clarification on the actual number of DOGE employees assigned to audit the Education Department.

Attorneys for the government estimated that number at six individuals. The plaintiffs alleged there were as many as 37.

On Feb. 17, DOGE employee Adam Ramada submitted a declaration to the court testifying that he was aware of only six “who have been granted access to Department information technology and data systems or who have otherwise received any Department information protected by the Privacy Act or section 6103 of the Internal Revenue Code.”

Ramada also said that all employees, except one, had completed security and ethics training; the remaining employee is set to finish the training soon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 16:27

Pete Hegseth Says Biden's IRS Targeted Him With "Total Sham" Audit On Their Way Out The Door

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Monday accused the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) of targeting him with a politically motivated audit in the last days of the Biden regime, calling the move a “total sham.”

“Of course the outgoing Biden IRS rushed an ‘audit’ of the incoming SecDef,” Hegseth wrote on his official X account, adding: “Total sham.” 

Hegseth included a photo of an IRS document stating that he and his wife Jennifer owed the government $33,558.16.

The IRS said the sum needed to be paid immediately to avoid further penalties.

“The party of ‘norms’ and ‘decency’ strikes again. We will never back down,” Hegseth wrote in his post.

Commenting on the Defense Secretary’s post, DOGE chief Elon Musk wrote: 

“They love the low blows.”

Hegseth was confirmed (51-50) as secretary of defense on January 24 with the help of Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote.

While the details of the IRS case against Hegseth remain sketchy, the incident is reminiscent of how the IRS was weaponized against political enemies during the Obama era.

Beginning in 2010, the IRS began targeting conservatives groups for audits and excessive tax-exempt scrutiny.

The IRS and FBI improperly targeted conservative nonprofit groups for special scrutiny ahead of the 2012 general election. 

The IRS essentially stopped processing applications for 501(c)(4) tax-exemption status received from organizations with “Tea Party,” “patriots,” or “9/12” in their names. 

During the same time period, the agency approved applications from several dozen liberal-leaning organizations whose names included terms such as “progressive,” “progress,” “liberal,” or “equality.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 16:20

Make Quizzes Great Again: Trump Sends Europe 6 Questions To Answer

By Michael Every of Rabobank

There are days and weeks where it’s all about the data. Not this week.

A 3D-printed miniature model of President Trump and the European Union's flag are seen in this illustration taken January 27, 2025. Reuters.

Reuters reports the US has sent the following questions for Europe to answer:

1. What do you view as a Europe-backed security guarantee or assurance that would serve as a sufficient deterrent to Russia while also ensuring this conflict ends with an enduring peace settlement?

2. Which European and/or third countries do you believe could or would participate in such an arrangement? Are there any countries you believe would be indispensable? Would your country be willing to deploy its troops to Ukraine as part of a peace settlement?

3. If third country military forces were to be deployed to Ukraine as part of a peace arrangement, what would you consider to be the necessary size of such a European-led force? How and where would these forces be deployed and for how long?

4. What actions do US allies and partners need to be prepared to take if Russia attacks these forces?

5. What, if any, US support requirements would your government consider necessary for its participation in these security arrangements Specifically, which short-term and long-term resources do you think will be required from the US?

6. What additional capabilities, equipment and maintenance sustainment options is your government prepared to provide to Ukraine to improve its negotiating hand and increase pressure on Russia? What more is your government prepared to do to increase its sanctions on Russia, including more strictly enforcing sanctions and better targeting third countries enabling Russia globally?

Whatever market you cover, take a moment to consider the fiscal, financial, and real economy impact involved from the above, especially point 6 given Europe still transships its goods to Russia via central Asia and refuses to use secondary sanctions against third parties “enabling Russia globally”. Then consider the additional costs of Europe and the UK backing Ukraine retaking its pre-war territory, which means hot war with Russia without the US.  

To say this would be a structural break for Europe is an understatement. How might this be done, physically, politically, and financially? As throughout history, national security may drive rapid, dramatic changes in political economy and market structures.

If not, urgent, permanent, expensive change will be imposed on Europe anyway: as President Zelenskyy just put it, "If not Brussels, then Moscow. It’s your decision. That’s geopolitics. That’s history. Moscow will pull Europe apart if we, as Europeans, don’t trust each other."

The UK now says it will send troops to Ukraine. That’s a political Rubicon crossed. Next is a vast increase in defence spending, if that is what its GDP is now for: a promised 2.5% of GDP spend years from now was already decried as “not touching the sides” even before this news.

To put this in context, the Financial Times’s Gillian Tett argues smaller economies must “become a vassal of America’s imperial power”, oppose it by siding with Russia and China - with no imperial pretensions, honest, or hedge their bets – and good luck to them. Relatedly, she predicts the BOJ to eventually allow JPY to appreciate vs. USD and, running the other way, Japan to buy long-term zero-coupon US debt, or perpetuals, to pay for its US military protection --NB ideas already floated by the Chair of the US Council of Economic Advisors-- but is that offer even on the table for Europe at this stage, or is it only for Asia?

President Trump controversially just tweeted, “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law,” quoting Napoleon, despite US intellectual Bill Kristol retorting, “This reads better in the original German,” saying a lot about US intellectuals to Europeans lacking Bonaparte’s power. Perhaps we will soon hear, “He who saves his Country does not violate any Fiscal Law.”

So, yes, expect a busy, and expensive, week in related geopolitics.

Tuesday, Saudi Arabia hosts US-Russia talks over Ukraine, with Europe and Ukraine maybe getting a look-in later, underlining why Europe needs hard power. As @BrankoMilan notes, neither Vienna 1815, Berlin 1875, Versailles 1919, Tehran 1943, Yalta 1945, Potsdam 1945, Washington 1962, Reykjavik 1986, nor Malta 1989 included the countries discussed there. Regular readers will also know I have been flagging potential Tehran/Yalta/Potsdam repeats for years.

The Saudis are also proposing to mediate between Trump and Iran, which some see as a diplomatic way of pretending they wouldn’t be as happy about an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites as any deal That’s as Israel and the US agree Tehran must never have a nuke, and the Israeli defence minister underlines it remains their #1 strategic priority, whatever the economic cost.

US envoy Russia and Ukraine Kellogg ‘revealed’ the States will attempt to pressure Putin into breaking alliances with North Korea, China, and Iran as part of a Ukraine deal. That would also reshape the world economy. However, an inverse-Nixon strategy is very unlikely to succeed. The Russia-China compact is not for moving, even if some in Europe think the riposte to the US telling it to pay its own defence bill is to move closer to Beijing – risking further US action.

As it’s reported that Beijing isn’t just limiting goods and technology exports, but key firms’ foreign investments and travel of highly skilled individuals, Xi Jinping will hold a public meeting with top tech firms to show support for the recent successes of DeepSeek and Apple’s collaboration with Alibaba. And the West will likely continue to mirror those actions.

That’s as the US removed opposition to Taiwanese independence from its official website in tweaked language, as it pivots to Asia and Taiwan to raising its defence budget to 3% of GDP.

Meanwhile, more directly in markets:

President Trump's top economic adviser Kevin Hassett will now meet regularly with the Fed’s Powell to ‘exchange views on the economy’. Although this also happened in the first Trump term, this is a different world, and the Fed and Trump have different views on the economy and rates.

The Financial Times says gold is the top ‘Trump Trade’, as the next DOGE trial-by-X target is floated as Fort Knox, the Bank of England flaps, and bullion continues to flow into the US.

And Bloomberg says, “Trump’s Tariffs Are a Mystery, So Investors Keep Buying Stocks.” Which sums up that market’s ‘thinking’ about geopolitics well. As one experienced hand told me, people are already too tired to keep chasing headlines, so are just waiting to see. As another trader put it, a generation of market people who ‘don’t do geopolitics’ was always going to react like that rather than seeing the worrying bigger picture – but that just means that the reaction will be even larger when the penny finally drops for them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 15:45

DOGE Finds $4.7 Trillion In Virtually Untraceable Treasury Payments

The Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) on Monday revealed its finding that $4.7 trillion in disbursements by the US Treasury are "almost impossible" to trace, thanks to a rampant disregard for the basic accounting practice of using of tracking codes when dishing out money. 

Mind you, it's not as if such a federal tracking system wasn't already in place -- it simply went casually unused for all sorts of payouts adding up to an almost unfathomable $4.7 trillion. Without Treasury Access Symbol (TAS) identification codes associated with those payouts, there's little hope in figuring out where all that money went. 

$4.7 trillion of OUR money went into a government blackhole.

It isn't traceable.

It's gone, into the abyss.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) February 17, 2025

"In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 Trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible," DOGE announced via its X account. Thanks to DOGE, those "optional" days are over. “As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going," DOGE added. 

Musk celebrated the move. "Major improvement in Treasury payment integrity going live!" he tweeted. "This was a combined effort of DOGE, USTreasury and FederalReserve. Nice work by all."

DOGE's scrutiny of various government agencies is eliciting high-pitched shrieks from nearly every leftist in America, from establishment politicians who don't want the curtain that hides their hijinks and grifting torn down, to your liberal sister-in-law who thinks the government has an endless supply of money and that it spends it all virtuously.  

The US Treasury just tossed $4.7 Trillion of our tax dollars right
out of the window.

This is why they hate DOGE for exposing them. pic.twitter.com/K0eY2ninDD

— Real Joshua Macias (@RealJoshMacias) February 18, 2025

Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back on portrayals of DOGE employees as reckless rogues. "These are highly trained professionals," he told Bloomberg. "This is not some roving band going around doing things. This is methodical and it is going to yield big savings."

In the wake of the latest revelation that makes normal people glad that DOGE teams are scouring the federal government, Democrats desperately tried to find a way to make it sound bad that DOGE exposed trillions in untraceable payouts and promptly instituted tighter accounting discipline.  Here's Wisconsin Rep Mark Pocan's lame attempt:  

For Trump & Musk, it’s not about waste, fraud or abuse.

It’s about finding the $4.7 trillion they need to fund the tax cuts for the wealthiest - including themselves.

It’s never about the middle class. They’re robbing programs you benefit from to enrich themselves. Corruption.

— Mark Pocan (@MarkPocan) February 17, 2025

Meanwhile, leftists have also been foaming at the mouth over news that DOGE staffers are looking into the Social Security Administration's (SSA) books, as if they were going to start rerouting funds to Tesla. Considering Social Security is careening toward mandatory benefit cuts as soon as 2033, everyone should welcome a team of financial professionals making sure the system isn't being drained by improper payments. 

Of course, that appears to be exactly what's been happening. On Sunday night, Musk said DOGE might be on the trail of "the biggest fraud in history," as SSA data appears to show that 20.789 million Americans over the age of 100 are collecting Social Security retirement benefits. That includes 12 million who are purportedly over 120 years old. 

Bent on derailing DOGE, Democrats have sued to prevent the organization from accessing federal data associated with the Office of Personnel Management, and the Health and Human Services, Education, Energy, Transportation, Labor and Commerce departments. On Monday, the federal judge handling the request for a restraining order expressed skepticism over Democrats' challenge, noting that their "evidence" was largely media speculation about potential harms springing from DOGE's activities: "The courts can’t act based on media reports. We can’t do that."

A ruling is expected Tuesday. Here's looking forward to DOGE proceeding to uncover a relentless string of scandals for months and months to come. 

Thank you DOGE! pic.twitter.com/KS3f6E4yUg

— Chuck's (Currently Sneed) (@CharlesChuckTam) February 17, 2025

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 15:15

DOGE Says Cost-Cutting Efforts Have Saved An Estimated $55 Billion So Far

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, led by SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, said its cost-cutting efforts across several federal agencies have saved an estimated $55 billion as of Feb. 17.

The savings came from a combination of fraud deletion, contract and lease cancellations and renegotiations, asset sales, grant cancellations, workforce reductions, programmatic changes, and regulatory savings implemented across federal agencies, according to DOGE’s website.

DOGE stated that contract cancellations alone accounted for approximately 20 percent of the overall savings accumulated since the advisory body was established.

The top 10 agencies with the highest total contract savings include the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Department of Education, the Office of Personnel Management, the Department of Health and Human Services, and the Department of Agriculture.

DOGE has canceled more than 200 contracts issued by USAID, the agency responsible for administering U.S. foreign aid and development assistance, according to the data.

The list includes cancellations of contracts related to diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives across several agencies.

Among the contracts canceled was a $45 million DEI scholarship program issued by USAID in Myanmar, formerly Burma, and a $36 million DEI training contract for leadership and supervisors in the Department of Homeland Security, and $130,000 for DEI training at the Department of Defense.

Subscriptions to Politico Pro, The Washington Post, Bloomberg Government, and The Wall Street Journal, were also canceled.

“We are working to upload all of this data in a digestible and fully transparent manner with clear assumptions, consistent with applicable rules and regulations,” DOGE stated on its website.

DOGE stated that the data will be updated twice per week while the website is being improved. The advisory group aims to provide real-time updates in the future.

DOGE announced on Feb. 17 that it found $4.7 trillion worth of payments from the Treasury Department that were missing account identification codes, making the payments difficult to trace.

It stated that the Treasury Department has assigned identification codes called Treasury Access Symbols (TASs), designed to note which account a Treasury payment is linked to. DOGE said it was a “standard financial process” for bookkeeping. However, the codes were not assigned for trillions of dollars worth of payments as the classification field was set up as optional, according to DOGE.

DOGE said the identification codes have now been made compulsory to ensure that all payments can be tracked.

“In the Federal Government, the TAS field was optional for ~$4.7 trillion in payments and was often left blank, making traceability almost impossible,” DOGE stated in a social media post. “As of Saturday, this is now a required field, increasing insight into where money is actually going.”

Musk has said that USAID has been placed under review for potential dismantling. USAID’s website has been taken offline, and thousands of its employees have been placed on administrative leave.

After taking office on Jan. 20, President Donald Trump signed an executive order renaming the existing U.S. Digital Service as DOGE and tasked it with reviewing federal agencies for potential downsizing and cost reductions. The order states that DOGE’s work is expected to be completed by July 4, 2026.

To conduct audits, DOGE has been granted access to federal systems, sparking legal challenges from some Democratic lawmakers and labor unions who argued the access is unconstitutional.

Attorneys general from 14 states filed a lawsuit on Feb. 13 challenging the Trump administration’s delegation of government access to Musk. The lawsuit alleged that Musk’s access to federal systems is unconstitutional because he has not been confirmed by the Senate. On Feb. 13, USAID employees filed a lawsuit against Musk and DOGE, urging the court to prevent Musk and his team from carrying out any actions.

The White House has previously said that Musk is a special government employee under the Trump administration. The position means that Musk’s service will only be temporary.

Trump told reporters at the White House earlier in February that Musk “can’t do and won’t do anything without our approval, and we’ll give him the approval where appropriate; where not appropriate, we won’t.”

“He reports in,” the president said.

Musk told reporters on Feb. 11 that Trump and the Republican Party’s ability to win a government trifecta in the 2024 election was a broader mandate for DOGE’s efforts.

“The people voted for major government reform, and that’s what people are going to get,” the tech billionaire said. “That’s what democracy is all about.”

The Government Accountability Office, a congressional watchdog agency, estimates that the U.S. government loses between $233 billion and $521 billion each year due to fraud and improper payments.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 15:05

"Things Are Going To Change. It's Just When And How"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Summit... and nothin'?

Monday’s US Presidents Day was also European Presidents and Prime Ministers Day, the latter at an emergency summit to discuss defence. Absent were Ukraine -- ironic as Europe complains of being left out by the US -- and Turkey, with the second-largest army in NATO.

EU Commission President von der Leyen was rhetorical: “Today in Paris we reaffirmed that Ukraine deserves peace through strength. Peace respectful of its independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, with strong security guarantees. Europe carries its full share of the military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, we need a surge in defence in Europe.” The EU Council president said Europe should negotiate with Russia and design new European security architecture.

Then, as the FT put it, ‘European leaders clash over sending troops to Ukraine’: sadly, this is the only kind of clash EU leaders excel at. Almost everyone rejected sending their own troops to support Ukraine, except the UK, who can’t do much physically or financially. Even Poland won’t, as it looks to spend 6% of GDP on defence, because it might need them at home - or in the Baltics, if EU officials fearing President Trump might pull back US troops stationed there are right.

This might seem "a quarrel in a faraway land between people of which we know nothing" to Western Europeans in markets thinking they *are* Europe, but the topic is a potential existential threat to fellow EU and Eurozone members. That used to require ‘Whatever It Takes’: but because that doesn’t now (directly) involve rate cuts and QE, it’s not as interesting(?)   

The lack of action at Monday’s summit means markets may think Europe won’t change. However, the idea of Eurobonds has been floated again; let’s see what happens after the German election; and what Europe doing nothing as the US makes clear it won’t do anything, and Russia makes clear it will do something, does for the European economy and markets over time. In short, things are going to change. It’s just when and how.

To put things in perspective, the Telegraph reports Weimar-esque terms being set for Ukraine by the US, with a huge claim on its economy as quid pro quo for aid. There is also more musing if President Trump is serious about annexing Canada, with comments from his chief economic advisor suggest he may be. Moreover, Trump just reiterated:

“On Trade, I have decided, for purposes of Fairness, that I will charge a RECIPROCAL Tariff meaning, whatever Countries charge the USA, we will charge them - No more, no less!

For purposes of this US Policy, we will consider Countries that use the VAT System, which is far more punitive than a Tariff, to be similar to that of a Tariff. Sending merchandise, product, or anything by any other name through another Country, for purposes of unfairly harming America, will not be accepted. In addition, we will make provision for subsidies provided by Countries in order to take Economic advantage of the US. Likewise, provisions will be made for Nonmonetary Tariffs and Trade Barriers that some Countries charge in order to keep our product out of their domain or, if they do not even let US businesses operate. We are able to accurately determine the cost of these Nonmonetary Trade Barriers. It is fair to all, no other Country can complain and, in some cases, if a Country feels that the US would be getting too high a Tariff, all they have to do is reduce or terminate their Tariff against us. There are no Tariffs if you manufacture or build your product in the US.”

What is described above is complex in application but simple in conception: “A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD FOR AMERICAN WORKERS,” and “RECIPROCITY.” Of course, a level tariff playing field won’t remove the structural US trade deficit given it’s caused by broader deliberate economic statecraft choices by others which force up their net savings and net exports vs the US: that structural conclusion is likely to be drawn on 1 April by other Trump trade investigations.

‘Just’ reciprocal tariffs will be hugely disruptive to the global trading system and financial flows. Not seeing that risk shows as little understanding of how that system works as of its history and how it was only built by force of arms in the first place. And, yes, there is an obvious link back to events in Europe and Ukraine there.

Which are about to be discussed, absent European and Ukrainian representation, in Saudi Arabia by the US and Russia. What else will be on the table at these talks? Who else might be on the menu?

Some note that the US, Russia, and Saudi are also the world’s three largest energy producers – and that Europe lacks domestic energy sources; and that gold continues to flow to the US and from other Western economies. That’s as market discussions continue about what a new, ideal US-dictated global trading and financial structure would look like; and some talk of ‘debt for defence’; even Fed governors like Waller underline they favour the creation of new crypto assets to cement the dollar’s global role; I’ve pointed out the strategic logic of financialized ‘Fartcraft’ to help shift the US towards a ‘Warcraft’ economy; and some reports suggest Russia is trying to create a centralised trading platform for Global South commodity trade. Simply, we are talking about historic, paradigm-shifting events that directly impact the shape, currency, and geography in which markets operate.

This is not like the post-9/11 Afghanistan and Iraq Wars and the War on Terror, which, after initial geopolitical shock, wreaked havoc on the Middle East but were hardly felt by everyone in Western economies and trading floors beyond changes in airport security. I can recall when Saddam’s statue fell in Baghdad and the TV news was immediately changed back to Bloomberg on the trading floor I was on. I was flabbergasted, “What about the effects on Iraq and the region? Doesn’t that matter?!” There was a collective shrug, and everyone went back to looking at tiny movements in lines on screens. And they were ‘right’.

This time, however, what is happening involves the West – and certainly Eastern Europe, which will matter for Western European trading floors if they don’t want to see things around them topple. Ironically, however, that may still involve a lot of market conventions, and even markets' present key role, being toppled.

Going back to my concept of US ‘Grand Macro Strategy’, the framework of Trump’s second-term economic statecraft is emerging: at best, it is the toughest of tough love to force the West to change vs. what the US sees as its rivals; at worst, it is an echo of early-20th, 19th, and 18th century US history in its neo-Hamiltonian, mercantilist, and even neo-imperialist “manifest destiny” approach.

Lines on maps are moving; lines on screens certainly will.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 14:25

Russian Air Base In Syria Hit With Overnight Drone Attack: Reports

At a tense diplomatic moment where Russia is trying to negotiate with Syria's new rulers in order to keep a military presence at Moscow's two longtime Russian bases on Syria's coast, Hmeimim airbase reportedly came under drone attack overnight.

"Unidentified drones attacked a Russian-controlled air base in Syria overnight, Iran-linked media reported early Tuesday, as Moscow seeks to maintain its military presence following the ouster of its closest ally in the region," The Moscow Times writes.

Via Anadolu Agency

The publication cites regional publication Sabereen News: "Anti-aircraft guns inside the Russian-controlled Hmeimim air base in Syria are intercepting unidentified drones flying over the Russian base," details the report.

The drone attack reportedly lasted for up to an hour. It was unlikely to have been the ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants under Jolani behind the attack, but could have been any of the hundreds of jihadist groups still running around Syria.

This has included thousands of foreign fighters, such as Chechens, which would have clear motives to continue attacking the Russian presence.

There have been no reports of damage or casualties from the Russian side, or much in the way of details given.

Russian forces throughout the country had rapidly pulled back to the two bases in the wake of Bashar al-Assad's December 8 ouster. Since then the naval base at Tartus and the Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia have seen a scramble of personnel packing up equipment, with the fate of the bases uncertain.

Below is unverified video purporting to show the attack as it was in progress:

A circulating video of the attack on the Hmeimim base in Latakia with drones at dawn today

Reports of a drone attack to be taking place on the Russian Khmeimim Airbase, near Jableh, northwestern Syria. Air defense systems are active and are trying to intercept incoming drones… pic.twitter.com/wG1AMkATj2

— Report Syrian (@reportsyrian) February 18, 2025

The Washington Post reported last week, "Syria is open to letting Russia keep its air and naval bases along the Mediterranean coast as long as any agreement with the Kremlin serves the country’s interests, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said in an interview this week, underscoring the pragmatic approach taken by his government as it charts new alliances and reassesses old ones forged under the previous regime."

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Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 14:05

A Million Things To Parse

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

A Million Things to Parse?

Given the nonstop barrage of headlines, it might seem like there are a million things to parse? But maybe there is a subset of things that we can focus on to try to determine the direction of the market? It won’t make the task of coming up with answers easier, but it might make it manageable. Messy, but manageable remains a theme.

Academy was on Bloomberg TV on Friday, and I don’t think we could have scripted a set of issues this important to markets that are in Academy’s wheelhouse any better. The Full Clip starts at the 1:39:45 mark, but they also produced this smaller segment Tchir is Bullish on China, U.S. Chipmakers, and European Stocks.

Getting out of DOGE

Not a day goes by without a slew of DOGE-related headlines. I’m not sure if this is true, but it was so interesting that I figured I’d pass it along. Apparently, internet searches for “criminal lawyers” is “off the charts” in the D.C. area and a massive inventory of homes for sale has come on the market in recent weeks. Honestly, I’m not sure if those rumors are true, but the fact that the stories are circulating so widely is telling. I did find one “source” but the “source” for that “source” was GROK, which somehow seems fitting with everything going on.

On DOGE:

• Headline after headline of waste that is being reduced. Even if a fraction of the headlines are accurate, the ability to cut spending seems high. That is without focusing their attention, yet, on some of the big-ticket items in the budget. DOGE alone seems able to help with the goal of reducing the deficit.

• Accountability and Transparency. Or, simply, audits. There seems to be overwhelming support for accountability and transparency. As deficits have skyrocketed, in good and bad economic times, more people are left wondering where their tax dollars are going. Initial indications are that they are not being treated as carefully as we, the taxpayer, might like.

• Mistakes as well. The “other side” of the story is also emerging. What if certain things being cut as “fat and waste” are actually useful and important? What happened to the cryptic tweet about “discrepancies in Treasuries?” That one seemed unlikely to be true and has quickly disappeared from the ether. Chatter about paying lots of people who are 150 years old seems to be getting debunked as it may be an issue with COBOL dates. Not sure whether the root of the issue has been figured out, but it seems insane to me that systems run on COBOL, which was already falling out of favor when I was programming, last century.

So far, I think DOGE has been helping support Treasuries. DOGE provides some element of hope that bigger chunks of the deficit can be trimmed, without major repercussions to the economy or markets, than previously thought. The excitement about what DOGE can do to the bigger line items is real. The risk that the approach is too simplistic (with too many mistakes) is there as well, but so far, there seems to be enough low hanging fruit to feed an army.

The fact that Secretary Bessent and others seem focused on longer term yields (and not just the front end of the yield curve) is also encouraging. Their task of slowing the steepening may be Herculean, but it is helping, and something, as a Treasury bear, that I’m watching closely.

Enemies Close, Friends Less So

The adage of “keep your friends close and your enemies closer” seems to be getting turned upside down.

• China got hit with “only” a 10% “fentanyl” round of tariffs. TikTok remains under Chinese ownership. The administration seems to be reaching out to Xi, as much, or more, than Xi seems to be reaching out to us.

  • Tossing out the idea of China, the U.S., and Russia cutting their defense spending in half seems a bit dubious. We mentioned transparency earlier, and that is never a word I would use to describe China’s official data. Of all the things that have been “tossed out there” as ideas, this one seems, uhm, not so great? If I’m China, I sign on the dotted line instantly and then spend more than ever. Probably the same for Russia, though not sure what they have to spend, though that could change on the back of any agreement to end the fighting in Ukraine.

• Russia back in the G-7? Not sure Europe wants that at all (see the title of this section). Not sure if calling it the G-7 was a slip, as it should be the G-8 if Russia is back, or it is a veiled threat that one member might get kicked out? This could be like quantum physics – with both answers being true at the same time!

• “Friends” sometimes need to be reminded that they too need to act in certain ways to remain friends. From trade practices to defense issues, relationships need to benefit both sides. Friends that are only “take, take, take” don’t make for good friends for the longer term. Having said that, most relationships are rarely that one sided.

  • Canada and Mexico are dealing with the “third round” of tariffs. See Reciprocal Tariffs from Thursday for more thoughts on the subject as a whole. Two countries, which could be a big part of shifting supply chains back to one heavily dominated by the U.S., seem to be absorbing the brunt of the president’s ire so far. Not sure if that is the best strategy. So far, so good, but it does seem to go against the adage of what to do with friends.

  • Hegseth and Europe. The Munich speech was aggressive and presumably designed to motivate Europe to do more, so the U.S. can step its spending and efforts back. Reasonable, to some degree, but not without longer term risks.

My simplistic world view, which has served us well, has been:

• On one side you have China. China is “circled” by their “bad actor” relations – Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Beyond that, China has wrapped their tentacles around many autocratic, resource-rich nations. China is a large importer of raw resources from certain nations, and in many cases, their Belt and Road Initiative is very involved in the infrastructure of those nations. I’m less worried about the BRICS as any sort of organization, than I am about their ability to act as an effective barter system for Chinese brands. There are openings into parts of Europe where current weak economic conditions, coupled with more reliance on China, make them susceptible to growing trade with China, potentially at the expense of the U.S.

• On the other side you have Europe, Canada, Mexico, Central America, and South America as opportunities. Africa could be a bonanza for the U.S., as China’s behavior has not endeared it to some of the countries that they are involved with. Plenty of opportunities, but an interesting start on this front.

An interesting start to relationship building. So far, it seems to be working, but these things take time to play out. There may yet come a time when the U.S., in its efforts to “nudge” countries to do more, pushes too far. Not even close to being there yet, but I expect some pushback rather than “ring kissing” in the coming weeks, which should upset markets.

What Did You Think the End of Russian Hostilities Would Look Like?

The level of global confusion, if not outrage, about a possible deal to stop the fighting between Russia and Ukraine is surprising. It is, for better or worse, following the path that Academy has been laying out. Our assessment wasn’t based on what people would “like” to happen, but what their experiences with the individuals involved and the current state of the battlefield led them to conclude would happen.

Two things that finally seem to be getting the attention they deserve with respect to the talks:

1. Russia’s frozen dollar reserves are a big bargaining chip. The U.S. is trying to determine how much can be legally kept. The more the better. But the reality is that any agreement will likely include Russia getting some back, with some being used to pay off Ukraine’s debts and to fund the rebuilding.

2. Zelensky isn’t that popular within Ukraine any longer. Now, it appears, out of nowhere, we are seeing articles about his inability to win an election and that is why he is choosing not to hold one. That has been part of our take on the situation for months, which is why he is likely going to take a deal that goes against a lot of what he publicly claimed he needed to do a deal.

There is one twist, which I’m still trying to make sense of:

• Getting access to Ukraine’s resources as payment for services already rendered. While fully on board with the idea that the U.S. will benefit from supporting the rebuilding efforts, “re-trading” something always rubs me the wrong way. The U.S. and U.S. companies should do well in the rebuilding. But do we change the terms of what was already done? Maybe, I guess, framing it as the way we want them to repay their debt makes it ok, but I cannot help but wonder if other nations will view it quite that cleanly? If they don’t, probably not a big deal in the here and now, but in the future?

Simple and Transactional

When asked about the president’s two greatest strengths, I pounce on the phrase:

• Simple and Transactional. He is quick to cut to the chase. To see through a lot of the messiness and get to the point. Deals are good. They don’t need to be all-encompassing deals. Each deal can be struck on its own merit, and we can move along by keeping things simple and transactional.

Wow, I feel like we are back to quantum physics, but when thinking about the president’s two greatest weaknesses, I get right back to:

• Simple and Transactional. As great as KISS is, there are things that are complex. The devil can be in the details. While everyone likes a good deal, there is a tendency to do more deals with those you trust over time (where you build a rapport). The need to “win” every deal may not lead to optimal outcomes down the road.

As we examine everything this administration is trying to accomplish, and think about how it will affect businesses, the economy, and markets, it is the balance of the simple and transactional that we will be forced to weigh. What are we getting today? What are we getting set up for down the road?

Mar-a-Lago Accord

Is all of this setting up for some push towards a “Mar-a-Lago Accord?” There has been an increasing amount of chatter about a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord.

Most of what we’ve written about today, and in the past, fits well.

Talk of an External Revenue Service, which would focus on generating income from “foreign” sources, primarily trade. We haven’t discussed this specifically, but it fits well within our view (and concern) that the administration could decide that they like the revenue from tariffs so much that it becomes an increasingly important part of our budget process. My concern is that the benefits are felt immediately (more income), but the shifts in supply chains and relationships might be damaging longer term.

Discussions about moving more assets to the Sovereign Wealth Fund and valuing them at market prices. Our expectation is that we would look to move gold, some land, and other assets into a sovereign wealth fund.

• For gold and some other assets, it might be a way to mark them to market. We’ve always tried to point out that for every corporation, people discuss the asset and liability side of the balance sheet, but for the government, we are only fixated on the liability side. I’m not a proponent for selling off national parks to the highest bidder, but trying to better account for U.S. assets would be good.

• It may open the way for the government to strike deals with the private sector that ensure that the rights and privileges granted are not overturned by the next administration, or the one after that. My biggest concern about “refine baby refine” or now “National Security = National Production” has been whether corporations will be convinced that a favorable regulatory environment will remain in place for the duration of their project. I could see the sovereign wealth fund being a vehicle that could be used to structure deals with more regulatory certainty which would be good for my National Security = National Production view.

Paying for U.S. “trade protection” (the Navy in particular, but all branches of the armed forces) by “forcing” countries to buy Treasuries at off-market prices. Chatter of paying par for 100-year bonds with a 0% coupon. Lots of chatter on this, but this seems like it could hit a number of roadblocks, especially as it seems like the view is that countries may have to pay for protection that was already afforded to them. I assume this would have the “benefit” of reducing our spending (others now are paying for it) and lowering the cost of funding the debt (off-market prices would do that). Both might backfire, especially on the off-market pricing. We already “broke” one “covenant” when we froze Russia’s dollar reserves. It sent a clear signal that if you are a bad actor, your dollars are not necessarily yours. This would breach another covenant along the same lines. The debt we owe you is subject to our needs at some point in time. It won’t overwhelm markets on day one if something like this is implemented, but I’d bet against it helping yields in the longer run and it would likely hasten deglobalization.

Things do seem to be funneling in this direction, but I don’t think we’ve missed much by addressing the various topics individually rather than under the banner of the Mar-a-Lago Accord.

How Much More Good News Can Bitcoin Handle?

I’m not sure I’ve ever been this confused about Bitcoin. I’ve lost count of how many states, countries, and companies are “discussing” Bitcoin or crypto reserves (I really wanted to write “spouting off” but restrained myself). Yet, here we are still below $100k on Bitcoin.

Maybe the average investor has figured out that crypto enthusiasts can pay people to pump crypto and some of the most vocal pundits are paid and heavily conflicted (I really wanted to use “shills,” but restrained myself, again). Maybe it was that in Argentina, which has been in the headlines, in a good way, of late, there was a “rug pull” of a meme coin that seemed to have President Milei’s endorsement. At least during the few moments when the meme coin (LIBRA) did well, though social media seems to have been scrubbed of those endorsements. Or maybe, and this seems weird, so many big institutions are showing up with Bitcoin ETFs rather than “physical” (an oxymoron for a bunch of 1s and 0s), then having to explain how it is easier to own in ETF form rather than in their own wallets. That does seem a bit strange.

With all the headlines, I’d expect crypto to be soaring. It isn’t.

Crypto seems much more correlated with the market of late. Partly because of real world links (the ETFs and crypto-focused firms in major indices) and partly because it’s all part of the same sentiment/trade. I’m keeping an eye on this closely, as crypto can lead the way, particularly to the downside, for U.S. risk assets.

The Gold Arbitrage

Arbitrage is a term thrown around loosely. It should only be used when you can buy and/or sell things where the up-front cost/fee of putting the trades on converges to a point where you are guaranteed a profit. I warn you not to Google “Bitcoin arbitrage” / ”Bitcoin yield” as they are currently being used because it might make your head explode.

There is a “real” arbitrage between the price of gold in New York and London. Gold is fungible. There are storage and delivery costs that need to be accounted for, but the potential for arbitrage exists.

The relationship between New York and London gold prices has generally been stable. Of late, the price of gold in the U.S. is now significantly more than the price in London, relative to history.

Presumably, it is largely because of concerns about tariffs. When going through my notes on tariffs, thoughts and concerns on gold were, ummm, nowhere on my list. Or at least far enough down, that I hadn’t thought about it.
Yet, here it is, being influenced by tariffs.

There is only one reason why I bring this up – it is the first sign of tariffs affecting liquidity.

When we gets shifts in relationships (arbitrage conditions, volatility, cross-asset correlation) there is increased risk that one or more dealers get caught “offsides.”

That can tend to reduce the liquidity, obviously in the market in question, but it can also reduce liquidity more broadly.
If liquidity in precious metals breaks down, could it hit other commodities? As it hits other commodities, it leaks into the stocks (and bonds) of those companies that are related.

So on and so forth.

At the moment, what is going on in gold is registering as “mildly intriguing,” but given my view of market structure (the faux liquidity of algo-driven market making), it is yet another thing to keep an eye on.

National Security = National Production

I’ve given up on getting “Refine Baby Refine” to resonate. But, I have not given up on my belief that everything that is considered necessary for national security will generate a lot of attention from this administration. With the goal of being as independent as possible (and certainly independent of China, Russia, etc.) for those items.

Those items include commodities, the processed (or refined) versions of the commodities, chips, and some medical/pharma/biopharma items as well. Energy production certainly falls into this camp as well, since if we want to dominate AI and chips, we will need energy and power to do that.

If you position your portfolio around National Security = National Production, you should fare well under this administration. Maybe that will resonate better than “Refine Baby Refine.” In any case, “Drill Baby Drill” barely scratches the surface of what national security is pushing for and what seems to be getting a very positive reception from this administration.

Over time, this will keep a lid on inflation, but I don’t see how we get to extracting, processing, or producing anything in scale, without first experiencing some inflation.

Bottom Line

Millions of things are going on, but using terms like “simple” and “transactional” can help us focus on what is most important. However, we need to be aware of the failings of simple and transactional, at the same time, to avoid getting blindsided.

Credit still seems boring.

Yields are lower than my targets, but I do understand why. I’m not buying into the bullish arguments as much as the market is, but I am considering them, and wondering if I’ve underestimated the positives for bond yields? I don’t think so, but I have to keep it in mind.

Equities have plenty of opportunities, but I’m focused on the most shorted, least loved assets right now. We haven’t had a really good (meaning vicious) rotation lately, and I’m betting that we see that coming soon. Look for foreign markets to outperform. Look to own companies that will benefit from the National Security = National Production view of this administration.

Bitcoin has so many positives, but it keeps muddling along, so I’d be very tempted to dump it or short it here. This probably means that by Tuesday morning we will be at new all-time highs, but something is rotten in the state of Denmark (separate from Greenland – yeah, I had to go there!).

Good luck, and I am hoping for a Canada/U.S. rematch in the 4 nations series, as Saturday night’s game embodied the old joke, “I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out” with 3 fights in the first 9 seconds! Old school hockey! Both sides will be putting on the foil if we get to that rematch!

This is the same kind of preparation we need for dealing with these markets and the slew of headlines (for those who think we have a few weeks of no tariff-related headlines after last week’s vague announcements, I wouldn’t bet on that!).

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 13:45

Orban Issues 'WARNING!' Over 'Soros NGO Network Fleeing To Brussels' After USAID Funding Freeze

With the Trump administration cutting off billions of US taxpayer funding for the USAID international slush fund, formerly flush NGOs are now begging woke EU nations for money to continue operations, according to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, George Soros

"WARNING! Our fears have come true: the globalist-liberal-Soros NGO network is fleeing to Brussels, after President Trump dealt a huge blow to their activities in the US," Orbán wrote in a Tuesday post to X. "Now 63 of them are asking Brussels for money, under the guise of various human rights projects. Not going to happen! We will not let them find safe haven in Europe!"

"The USAID-files exposed the dark practices of the globalist network. We will not take the bait again!"

WARNING! Our fears have come true: the globalist-liberal-Soros NGO network is fleeing to Brussels, after President Trump dealt a huge blow to their activities in the US. Now 63 of them are asking Brussels for money, under the guise of various human rights projects. Not going to…

— Orbán Viktor (@PM_ViktorOrban) February 18, 2025

Orbán then linked to a plea from the International Commission of Jurists begging the EU for money.

The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ), together with over 60 civil society organizations, has joined an urgent appeal calling on EU leaders to take immediate action to address the global development aid crisis triggered by recent decisions by the U.S. administration.

On 20 January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order imposing a 90-day freeze on all U.S. foreign aid. This decision has already led to immediate and devastating consequences, including the closure of clinics, the suspension of life-saving disease treatment programmes, the disruption of human rights and rule of law initiatives, and a funding crisis for NGOs worldwide. -ICJ

And what are their priorities that demand this urgent intervention?

• Provide emergency funding to mitigate the financial shortfalls created by the U.S. aid freeze and Global Gag Rule;
• Prioritize funding for sectors most affected, including reproductive rights, gender equality, and LGBTIQ rights;
• Reduce administrative barriers to ensure accessibility of funding for civil society organizations;
• Take diplomatic action to urge the U.S. administration to reverse course.

Good luck getting the EU to pay for it. Surely such wealthy and virtuous nations can foot the bill?

Expel them from every corner of your nation.

We are doing the same.

Save your country!

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) February 18, 2025

The corrupt NGO's that were refunded by DOGE are going to the WEF and UN for money. Who would've guessed.

— individual1st (@individual1st) February 18, 2025

In January, Orbán predicted a "new golden age" for Hungary after Donald Trump's November win, six years after kicking Soros' network out of Hungary.

“Everything will change, a different day will dawn over the Western world on Tuesday morning. The failed democratic governance in America will come to an end,” Magyar Nemzet reported Viktor Orbán as saying in his first interview this year with Kossuth Radio’s Good Morning Hungary! program.

Calling the Democratic Party and George Soros “a bunch of idiots,” Orbán claimed the Democrats want to force what they think is right on the world, including regarding migration and gender.

He further added that his top priority for 2025 is to send George Soros back to the United States, with the “expulsion of the Soros network from Hungary” starting this spring. Orbán also expressed his hope that “patriots elsewhere” will also do the same.

“It must be shown that the Soros network’s presence in Europe is contrary to the interests of the people,” he stated.

Stating that Brussels is in the pocket of George Soros, he said, “If there is corruption, this is it.”

Noting the start of a “new era in Brussels,” the prime minister said Brussels needs to “sober up” and “adapt.”

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Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 13:25

Gen Z Faces A Difficult Labor Market Due To AI And Their Own Bad Habits

Can incoming youth prospects handle the workaday world?  It's a question that is plaguing economists and researchers, and for good reason.  No generation in recent memory has had quite as much trouble integrating into work environments compared to Gen Z.

US employers report that they are increasingly reluctant to hire Gen Z labor, and this includes Gen Z -age hiring representatives who don't want to hire their own.  Despite this trend the latest generation to enter the work force says they feel greater optimism for their job prospects going into 2025 according to surveys, but are they living in la la land? 

The recruitment process has apparently been grueling for many companies that are relying increasingly on AI to process resumes.  What they did not expect was for Gen Z workers to also use AI as a tool for supercharging the amount of applications they send out.  Employers now say AI might be complicating the hiring process, with savvy Gen Z exploiting the tech to better misrepresent their qualifications and apply to jobs randomly through automation. 

This dynamic has created an environment of "ghost applicants" and also "job ghosting".  Companies offer positions to Gen Z applicants which are automatically accepted, only to discover that the person is no longer looking.  Sometimes the position is filled and the employee is processed, only for the worker to never show up.  

AI and online hiring has allowed Gen Z to send out resumes by the thousands and gather as many potential offers as possible; then sift through those offers and accept the one they prefer while never following up on the flurry of AI generated applications they fired into the ether.  Companies say the time they have to spend on sorting job applicants has skyrocketed in the past few years.  Over 80% of hiring managers say they will be rejecting AI generated applications outright.  

The days of a prospective employees physically walking in the door, turning in a resume or filling out an application, then talking to a manager and shaking their hand are nearly gone.  This has caused a lack of tangibility in the labor market that is in large part a problem caused by the corporate world's obsession with efficiency.  Some will argue that Gen Z is merely adapting to the technology and the circumstances, however, the situation is beginning to backfire on everyone.

When Gen Z prospects are required to engage an employer during in-person interviews, many struggle with social interaction and around 20% have even reverted to bringing their parents to interviews as a security blanket.  Employers list unrealistic salary expectations for entry level positions as a problem for younger applicants, along with a tendency to be offended without cause.

Companies say bad habits of younger workers are creating a quiet but discernible shift away from Gen Z in the labor market.  They argue that trends like "career catfishing", job ghosting, quiet quitting and concepts like "bare minimum Mondays" are turning Gen Z employees radioactive.  

As Fortune recently noted, Gen Z college grads in particular are notorious among corporate recruiters for their lack of basic work skills and professionalism.  Over the course of the pandemic labor rush and the beginning of the inflation crisis labor was in short supply, meaning younger applicants just entering the workforce have enjoyed a demand bonanza.  Many of them have never faced a market environment in which job options are in short supply.  This is changing.  

Employers are firing Gen Z employees in large numbers.  At least 60% say they are getting rid of many younger employees that were hired in the past year.  Employers’ gripe with young people today is their lack of motivation or initiative - 50% of the leaders surveyed cited that as the reason why things didn’t work out with their new hire. 

Bosses also pointed to Gen Z being unprofessional, unorganized, and having poor communication skills as their top reasons for having to sack grads.  Leaders say they have struggled with the latest generation’s tangible challenges, including being late to work and meetings often, not wearing office-appropriate clothing, and using language appropriate for the workspace.

The reasons for this behavior and inability to adapt to work environments are up for debate.  Some argue that the public education system has failed to prepare children for the expectations of the private sector, which is a fair point.  Others argue that parents and previous generations have made soft kids with no understanding of discipline and dedication. 

Socialists claim that Gen Z is in the midst of a "worker revolution" and that they are "rebelling against capitalist exploitation".  This may be true for a contingent of young people (especially college grads) brainwashed by the political left into thinking they shouldn't have to work or have merit to get the things they desire.  But an empty stomach is an empty stomach and it can't be filled with socialist righteousness - people will work because they need to.  

So, maybe they haven't needed to?

Another more grounded explanation is that around 50% of Gen Z adults (18-28) are still living at home with their parents - A record high not seen in 80 years.  This safety net has allowed young workers the option to leave a job or turn down a position at will without facing financial insecurity.  Unfortunately, this has also ingrained attitudes which could make many in Gen Z unemployable in the future.  Not to mention, staying at home won't necessarily be an option for most of their lives.  

The greater reality is that Gen Z will be overtaking Millennials as the primary labor pool in ten years.  Though some companies are launching pre-employment programs designed to teach Gen Z hires better work habits, there will need to be a sea change in how American youth are prepared for the adult world.  AI and automation isn't going to save them from the struggle; if anything, it's going to make their lives much harder. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 12:45

Major Drop In Daily Encounters With Illegal Immigrants, Border Czar Says

Authored by Rachel Acenas via The Epoch Times,

Daily encounters at the southern border have significantly plummeted, according to President Donald Trump’s border czar Tom Homan.

“In the last 24 hours the US Border Patrol has encountered a total of 229 aliens across the entire southwest border. That is down from a high of over 11,000 a day under Biden,” Homan said in a statement on X. 

“I started as a Border Patrol Agent in 1984 and I don’t remember the numbers ever being that low.”

Homan said that Trump pledged a secure border, and he is delivering on that promise.

Trump during the 2024 presidential election vowed to launch mass deportations in his second White House term and signed an executive order on illegal immigration on his first day in office.

The president chose Homan to oversee his illegal immigration crackdown, including nationwide deportations and the suspension of illegal entries into the United States.

Homan’s latest update on daily border encounters comes as U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement (ICE) and other federal agencies continue to arrest thousands of illegal immigrants across the country, including transnational gang members, terrorists, and convicted criminals.

Just last week in Texas, a Venezuelan national who is also a suspected member of the Tren de Aragua prison gang was arrested. Federal agents later discovered that he was previously convicted and sentenced for attempting to smuggle firearms out of the United States.

“The arrest of a suspected TdA gang member, previously convicted of firearms smuggling, marks a significant victory in our ongoing efforts to enhance public safety,” ICE Homeland Security Investigations San Antonio Special Agent in Charge Craig Larrabee said in a statement.

“This apprehension is a testament to the diligent work of our law enforcement agencies in rooting out criminal activity and safeguarding our communities.”

Meanwhile, Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), have pushed back on Trump’s immigration policies. Ocasio-Cortez’s office recently hosted a “Know Your Rights with ICE” webinar.

Homan suggested that Ocasio-Cortez may have broken the law by advising her followers on how to evade the law.

Tom Homan on AOC: “She's the dumbest congresswoman ever elected to Congress and she proves that every day." pic.twitter.com/gknT2ihOpq

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 18, 2025

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/18/2025 - 12:25